Toward a More Comprehensive Measure of Labor Underutilization: The Alabama Case

Workers in occupations that underutilize their education or training, experience, and skills are underemployed. This worker underemployment presents economic development opportunities through selective job creation and industry growth. Businesses benefit because such underemployment information provides more realistic estimates of the available labor pool in an area. It also provides the potential to improve firm output and profits by using the information to enhance productivity and performance, as well as reduce turnover. However, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) measures of labor underutilization do not consider underemployment among full-time workers and thus provide incomplete information on the full extent of underemployment. Four surveys on Alabama's working age population show that underemployment is present among full-time workers and is a multiple of the unemployment rate. We combine underemployment estimated from the surveys with the U-5 BLS measure of labor underutilization to develop a more comprehensive measure called CMLU5. The methods developed in this study can be applied to labor markets at the county level and above anywhere in the United States.     

Another look at the relationship between socioeconomic factors and the black-white health benefit inequality

This paper illustrates the black-white disparity in health benefit coverage and the socioeconomic variables-unemployment, income, and education. The health benefit disparity is strongly related to the disparity in underlying socioeconomic variables. Moreover, the time-series examination reveals that the change in white workers' health insurance coverage is largely determined by its year-to-year persistence and the labor market tightness (or the business cycle), while that of black workers is largely determined by the change in their earnings with a slight persistence. The effect of the change in annual earnings seems to dominate the effect of the labor market condition (unemployment rate) and other variables. Finally, although marginally significant, an increase in the attainment of higher education (college) has a positive effect on the black-white health benefit disparity.     

On the growth effects of North-South trade: the role of labor market flexibility

This paper examines the impact of intensified North-South intra-industry trade from a growth theoretic perspective. It incorporates unemployment into Helpman’s [Econometrica 61 (1993) 1247] model of North-South trade. We assume that those Northern workers who lose their jobs due to imitation remain unemployed for a given (expected) length of time, so that imitation in the South causes frictional unemployment. It is shown that the shape of the relation between the (exogenous) rate of imitation and the (endogenous) steady-state growth rate depends on the degree of labor market flexibility, as measured by the outflow rate from unemployment. It is monotonically increasing for high outflow rates, hump-shaped for intermediate outflow rates, and monotonically decreasing for low outflow rates. The realization of the potential growth gains from trade thus presupposes labor market flexibility, and the model is capable of accounting qualitatively for the divergent growth performances in the US and Europe in the recent past.     

Explaining differing perceptions of employees’ skill needs: the case of garment workers in Ethiopia

The Ethiopian economy has grown significantly and the government has prioritized industrial skills development and expanded technical and vocational education and training (TVET). However, mismatches between the skills available and the skills required are widespread and the unemployment rate for TVET graduates is high. Little scholarly effort has been made to empirically identify the exact types and domains of skills in which these supply–demand mismatches happen. The present study relies on interviews with 30 vocational trainers, 19 employees, 13 factory managers and 3 garment industry experts. To measure the perception gaps between the supply and demand sides of worker skills and explain why mismatches occur, we conducted an assessment in which assessors from among the factory managers and vocational trainers along with the three industry experts concurrently graded the garment‐manufacturing vocational skills of the same workers. For this purpose, we developed a unique instrument that captures the knowledge and skills of workers in real work environments. The analysis reveals that TVET trainers expect students to have comprehensive skills and grade the skills of workers more generously, whereas factory managers expect not variety but quality, and score workers’ performance more critically. Differences in the educational backgrounds and practical experience of assessors contribute to these gaps. The evidence from this study suggests that the vocational skills assessment instrument we have developed for our research is valid and can serve as a basis for future large‐scale performance assessments.     

论如何同时降低通货膨胀率和失业率——菲利普斯曲线的微观经济基础及其移动

菲利普斯曲线有其微观经济基础。菲利普斯曲线描述的货币工资变化率与失业率之间的关系取决于失业工人随机寻找工作的经济决策、在岗工人与公司之间的博弈行为、工会势力与公司讨价还价力量的均衡、公司调整产品价格和工人工资的决定、劳动供给曲线的斜率等。以此为理论基础,通过对工作报价、最低工资预期水平、搜寻工作的效率、工会势力和公司势力、辞职率与临时解雇率、生产技术效率、劳动周转率、劳动市场分隔及其不平衡等因素进行政策性调节,可以使菲利普斯曲线整体性向左下方移动,从而同时降低通货膨胀率与失业率。     

Domestic Implications of a Global Labor Market

Conventional thinking about labor markets has been slow to adjust to the reality of labor in a context of a global rather than a closed, national economy. Liberalization of international trade and capital flows has made substitution of foreign for domestic labor increasingly feasible. This has put downward pressure on reservation wages of unemployed workers. Also, the relatively easy substitution of foreign and domestic manufactured products relative to services has led to a dual economy in which manufacturing employment has been severely impacted by foreign competition while service employment has not. This has been amplified by the U.S.’ comparative advantage in high education and skills, which tends to be more characteristic of services than of manufacturing. This implies that low-skilled workers will be increasingly left behind unless they upgrade their skills in an increasingly competitive global economy. JEL Classification J400,F410     

Protection and unemployment

Job loss concerns strongly influence the politics of trade, yet the formal political economy of trade literature has largely ignored unemployment. This paper seeks to extend the literature by merging an unemployment model with a trade policy model. The theory implies that labor turnover rates and unionization rates may significantly affect protection for individual industries. I use US data to test the model and find that protection for an industry declines with its turnover rate and increases with its unionization rate. The results also imply that protection does not increase with output and increases with the number of unemployed workers.     

Occupational segregation in Spain: Differential treatment of immigrants

Spain today faces simultaneously one of the world's largest immigrant populations and one of the highest unemployment rates. This difficult dilemma makes it a test case for how rich countries should deal with a surplus immigrant population. Do Spanish markets and policies make it more difficult to absorb immigrants? What policies could help? What are the consequences if the challenge is not faced successfully? This article focuses on the occupational segregation between Spanish and foreign workers. It explores whether observed characteristics (gender, age, and education) aggravate segregation, and suggests policies to promote inclusion of immigrants in developed countries. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Some evidence on the role of money illusion in labor supply behavior

The Keynesian idea that workers are subject to money illusion in their labor supply decisions is tested by estimating a labor supply function that includes the price level as an independent variable. The model is estimated with data drawn from various BLS publications and is aggregated by SMSA. The results indicate a significant negative supply response to price-level changes after controlling for the nominal wage rate, income, and the SMSA's unemployment rate. There is no significant difference between workers' supply response to the price level and the nominal wage rate, which suggests that workers are not subject to money illusion.     

农民工的劳动合同状况及其影响因素研究

劳动合同是农民工最重要的劳动权益之一。从是否签订劳动合同和合同年限等两个方面考察了农民工的劳动合同状况及其影响因素。通过江苏省的调研数据,农民工劳动合同的签订率仅为44.2%,劳动合同的年限普遍较短。Probit和负二项回归模型的结果显示:受教育程度、持有技能证书、对相关劳动法律的了解程度与农民工签订劳动合同以及合同年限之间均存在着显著的正相关关系;第一代农民工的合同年限明显长于新生代农民工;从事建筑业以及在民营、个体单位就业的农民工,签订劳动合同的可能性将显著下降,合同年限也显著缩短。提出了政策建议。     

The Unemployment Effects of Proposed Changes in Social Security's “Normal Retirement Age”

This paper identifies and analyzes an inherent conflict between some proposed U. S. Social Security reform measures, which would encourage delayed retirement decisions, and the objective of minimizing the economy's unemployment rate. Using recent demographic trends in the age composition of the U.S. labor force, the study suggests that such proposed U.S. Social Security reform measures may actually increase the economy's unemployment rate. It concludes that measures to encourage older workers would relieve labor market pressures (while also helping the Social Security system) if and only if unemployment was persistently near the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). However, in an economy with above NAIRU unemployment, which has been the case most often in recent years, the opposite Social Security policy logic would apply. JEL Classification H557     

The endogenous skill bias of technical change and wage inequality in developing countries

This paper draws on existing empirical literature and an original theoretical model to argue that technical change does not have to be skill-biased in developing countries. Instead, the extent to which technology adoption in developing countries favors skilled workers depends on a number of factors. Free trade induces technology that favors skilled workers in skill-abundant developing countries and that favors unskilled workers in skill-scarce developing countries, and therefore amplifies the predicted wage effects of trade liberalization. Developing countries experience technical change that is skill-biased when imported skill-biased technologies become relatively cheaper. Increased skill supply further biases technical change in favor of skilled labor. These features aid our understanding of the observed rises in inequality within developing countries, the absence of a significant downward effect of expanded educational attainment on skill premia, and the differential effects of trade liberalization on inequality.     

中国城镇的失业率究竟是多少

对于目前中国城镇失业率到底是多少,各界有各种不同的意见.作者认为,应当按照过去20多年中国城镇人口劳动参与率这个较为稳定的系数来推算,比较科学和客观,城镇人口劳动参与率应在55%水平上.按此推算,城镇失业人口加600万长期在家没有工作的职工,中国2002年的城镇劳动力失业率为12.44%,为3437万人.实际城镇人口劳动参与率曲线呈下滑趋势.中国如果按真实城镇失业率计算,2003年城镇需要就业和再就业的压力是4490万人,而不是劳动与社会保障部计算的2400万.中国未来18年中,就业和再就业压力最大的时期将是2003-2010年,2011-2015年次之,2015年以后就业和再就业压力将趋缓.期间,劳动力供给的最大来源为农村劳动力向城镇的转移,其次较难的是国有和集体企业结构调整需要再就业的劳动力,城镇本身新增劳动力就业的压力并不大;最保守估计,需要创造2.7亿多个就业机会,每年需要有1500万个工作岗位供城镇新增、农村向城镇转移和城镇下岗劳动力就业和再就业.     

Workers’ participation in regional economic change following establishment closure

This article analyses if and when workers affected by economic destruction in the form of establishment closures move to more productive or newly started establishments in the region, become self-employed, leave the region or become displaced. Results from multinominal probit models show that the majority of these workers face destructive employment outcomes from a Schumpeterian point of view compared to a matched sample of workers not subject to a closure. However, we do find indications of a creative destruction as a small, albeit significant, share become employed in young establishments. Different types of human capital influence the likelihood of triggering positive or negative regional outcomes. While higher education significantly decreases the risk for unemployment, high-income earners more often become engaged in creative outcomes. Firm tenure increases the likelihood of becoming employed in younger establishments. There are significant spatial differences where metropolitan regions excel as loci of creative change, whereas smaller and peripheral regions face far less creative outcomes of economic transformation.

     

The effects of unemployment and the business cycle on absenteeism

This study, apparently the first of its kind, looks at the relation between unemployment and absenteeism. It is hypothesized that high unemployment is associated with low absenteeism for two reasons: (1) when unemployment is high, layoffs are high and workers laid off are more likely to have been absence-prone than retained workers, and (2) when unemployment is high, currently employed workers, fearing job loss, will avoid absences to decrease their chances of becoming unemployed. Data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics support both hypotheses.     

从“五普”资料看经济技术开发区劳动参与特点

以大连经济技术开发区为例,分析了我国经济技术开发区的劳动参与特点,认为目前开发区劳动参与率较高,而从业人员文化素质较低,从业人员的产业和行业分布不均,失业人员状况也不尽如人意。     

The labor force of the future.

In the decades ahead, the US labor force will reflect changes in the industrial structure, with declines in some manufacturing industries and expansion in service industries. The services sector is so diverse that the jobs within it cannot be categorized as either high wage or low wage. The service-producing sector employs 85% of professional specialty workers in the US. In general, information on compensation trends indicates that greater increases in compensation have occurred for workers in service-producing as opposed to goods-producing industries. The increase in service sector jobs has created opportunities for women to enter the labor force and, at present, 5 out of 6 women work in this sector compared to fewer than 2 out of 3 men. Productivity growth rates in the service-producing industries vary substantially and are strongly affected by the business cycle. Central to employment opportunities in the years ahead will be the effect of new technology. To date, the aggregate effect of new technology has been increased employment and higher living standards. Although retraining programs should be in place, the scenario of a huge technology-created labor surplus seems unlikely. In fact, a more likely problem is a shortage of labor resulting from earlier labor force withdrawal and demographic aging of the population. Those in the 25-54-year age group will represent a larger share of the labor force in the years ahead. In addition, blacks are expected to account for 20% of the labor force growth in the next decade. Finally, given increasing labor force participation rates among mothers, employers may have to provide more flexible work schedules, assistance with day care, and more attractive benefits packages.     

U.S. Workers Delaying Retirement: Who and Why and Implications for Businesses

One of the main trends in the labor market in recent years is the aging of the workforce, which partly results from older workers delaying retirement. Using the Current Population Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we find that the trend of delaying retirement began as early as the mid-1990s, accelerated since the beginning of the latest recession, and has continued into the first four months of 2011. We also find that the development of this trend varied significantly across socioeconomic groups, industries, and occupations. We then use The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey to measure the impact of home prices and labor market conditions on retirement decisions, and find that workers in households that experienced labor loss/compensation cuts and significant declines in home prices were more likely to plan to delay retirement. These results also indicate that workers from states that suffered from large declines in home prices and high unemployment are more likely to delay retirement. We conclude by discussing potential economic and business implications.     

Outsourcing, unemployment and welfare policy

The paper investigates the consequences of outsourcing of labor intensive activities to low-wage economies. This trend challenges the two basic functions of the welfare state, redistribution and social insurance when private unemployment insurance markets are missing. The main results are: (i) outsourcing raises unemployment and labor income risk of unskilled workers; (ii) it increases inequality between high- and low-income groups; and (iii) the gains from outsourcing can be made Pareto improving by using a redistributive linear income tax if redistribution is initially not too large. We finally derive the welfare optimal redistribution and unemployment insurance policies.