市盈率投资策略：评价与检验

本文通过选取2001年高低市盈率组合的各20家股票，计算其2001～2005年的投资回报率并进行假设检验和相关分析。本研究发现，我国股票市场投资，无论是采用高市盈率投资组合还是低市盈率投资组合，其投资回报率基本趋同，没有明显差异。投资回报主要是和股票指数相关，而与选择高市盈率组合还是低市盈率组合基本无关。从短期来看，低市盈率股票投资回报波动更大，更具有不确定性，也更具有风险性。     

关于市盈率的分析

市盈率是股票价格与其每股收益的比值。对于股票市盈率高低的看法 ,不同的人从不同的角度去理解 ,可能会得出不同甚至完全相反的结论。如当某支股票的市盈率高于市场平均市盈率时 ,一部分人可能会认为该股票此时定价偏高 ,已经失去了投资或继续持有的价值 ;而另一部分人则认为 ,市盈率高的股票往往是一些高成长性的股票 ,市盈率高本身就说明了投资者对其未来成长性的认同 ,愿意为公司的每元盈利付出较多的资金。笔者倾向于后一种观点 ,买股票就是买上市公司的未来。如果一家公司业绩较好 ,市盈率偏低 ,但没有成长性 ,也不会受到市场的追捧 ;…     

从市盈率看未来市场趋向

大胆买进10倍市盈率股票,坚决做多低市盈率股票,减持高市盈率股票,用成长眼光更多关注动态市盈率,逢低介入未来市盈率将笃定大幅降低的价值成长股票,逢高派发未来市盈率将大幅提高的股票……     

新兴证券市场市盈率问题的统计研究

新兴证券市场市盈率问题的统计研究田皓市盈率是衡量股票投资价值和管理层据以调控股市的重要参考指标。科学地界定市盈率及其变化，是对证券市场实施有效监管的重要内容，也是投资者进行理性投资的基础。然而，由于市盈率的统计方法上的固有缺陷及近年来忽视对新兴证券市...     

市盈率不能说明证券的投资价值

在证券市场,目前有种流行的做法,就是把市盈率当作是衡量一种证券是否具有投资价值的依据,市盈率越低,则投资价值越高。笔者认为市     

“市盈率”在投资决策中的价值分析

多数投资者在分析、评价股票投资价值时 ,可以用一种粗略衡量股票价值的方法 ,就是市盈率分析法。它易于掌握 ,被投资者广泛使用。但事实证明 ,应综合考虑各种财务指标 ,切不可单纯依赖某一指标来判断股票的好坏 ,既要有效地利用“市盈率” ,也要超越“市盈率” ,从而才能作出正确的投资决策。     

对当前股市市盈率的辩证思考

近一段时间,从证券界到理论界,对如何看待我国股市市盈率的高低以及它与股市风险的关系,展开了一场热烈的讨论,笔者想更多地从定量分析的角度对这一问题作一探讨。1.评价股市市盈率的高低,应与上市公司的收益增长速度以及宏观经济发展的大环境相联系来作判断市盈率是一个静态指标,它是股票市价与该股票上年每股净收益之比。如果上市公司的业绩增长快于其股份的增加,则高企的市盈率就会随着时间的推移自然地降下来。股市箴言云“买股票就是买未来”,道理就在于此。     

市盈率与增长率关系的探讨——兼论股票定价的有关问题

应用市盈率方法进行股票估价的一个关键因素是需要确定合适的市盈率。虽然人们普遍认同增长率是影响市盈率的最重要因素,并且增长率高市盈率就应该高,但至今还没有建立起增长率与市盈率之间确切的数量关系。借助传统的回收期概念,本文讨论了市盈率与增长率的关系,推导出求解合理市盈率的模型。借助这个市盈率模型,笔者进一步推导出股票定价的模型,并称之为回收期模型。经过与经典的Gordon模型比较发现,回收期模型在多方面优越于Gordon模型。     

股票市盈率中隐含的竞争优势持续期

竞争优势持续期是指公司拥有正的净现值投资项目的时间,即新投资项目收益率超过资本成本的持续时间。这一概念近年来在股票估价模型研究及实际投资价值分析中受到关注。本文首先剖析了市盈率的认识误区,发展了一种揭示股票市盈率中隐含的股票市场对上市公司竞争优势持续期预期的分析模型,并应用该模型,估算了酿酒和家电行业各11家Ａ股上市公司的竞争优势持续期的股票市场预期值。结果表明,与目前股票市场广泛采用的市盈率方法相比,该模型能更好地与投资分析家的行业分析和公司调查相结合,给投资者提供评价股票市场是否高估或低估公司股票投…     

市盈率不能说明证券的投资价值

市盈率只是反映上市公司收益与股票市价的关系 ,没有涉及投资者的投资收益。因此 ,这个指标并不能用来说明证券的投资价值。说明证券投资价值的 ,应是收益率和风险率这两个指标。     

Land,technical progress and the falling rate of profit

The paper sets out a one sector growth model with a neoclassical production function in land and a capital–labour aggregate. If the elasticity of substitution between land and the capital–labour aggregate is less than one and if the rate of capital augmenting technical progress is strictly positive, then the rate of profit will fall to zero. This result holds regardless of the rate of land augmenting technical progress: no amount of technical advance in agriculture can stop the fall in the rate of profit. The paper also discusses the relation of this result to the classical and Marxist literature.     

Service sharing,profit mode and coordination mechanism in the Online-to-Offline retail market

How does the sharing economy affect the retail industry? This study investigates the impact of service sharing on the decisions and profits of two profit modes in the Online-to-Offline (O2O) retail market. We find that service sharing always improves the profit of the brand supplier as a service demander in both two profit modes, and improves the profit of the offline franchisee as a service provider in the profit-sharing mode under certain circumstances, but always reduces its profit in the non-profit-sharing mode. This is associated with the double marginalisation effect of the non-profit-sharing mode which leads to channel conflicts. Thus, a service-cost sharing mechanism is introduced to coordinate conflicts and achieve a win-win strategy, thereby improving the performance of the entire O2O supply chain.     

Military expenditure and the rate of profit: some empirical results

This article begins with a discussion of the seminal work of Luxemburg and the related work of Mandel. Using OLS estimation methods it proceeds to test for the relationship between military expenditure, the rate of profit and other related variables in advanced industrialized countries. Using annual time-series data the estimates, together with several diagnostic tests, are undertaken for the period 1958–87 for the UK, the USA and former W. Germany.     

Exchange rate market efficiency and new information

This paper uses a multi-currency approach to analyze the relationship between forward exchange rates, future spot rates and new information. The empirical results tend to support the hypothesis that the exchange rate can be expressed as a function of factors known in advance and ‘news’.     

Interest rate policy and interbank market breakdown

Using a DSGE-model with interbank market frictions, calibrated to match the frequency of financial crises, I investigate central banks' ability to prevent credit-related recessions by following an interest rate rule which accounts for financial conditions —an approach called ‘leaning against the wind’. The model's key feature is that boom-bust cycles emerge as a result of a savings glut and moral hazard in the banking sector. Although financial conditions predict crises, the policy maker cannot break the boom-bust cycle and reduce the crisis-frequency. When crises become more likely, low inflation forces the central bank to decrease the interest rate despite its intention to do otherwise. Responding to crisis-predictors eventually dilutes the primary objective of stabilizing inflation and leads to higher inflation volatility. The results suggest that central banks should refrain from leaning against the wind.     

The stock market and the vacancy rate

This paper analyzes the vacancy rate in competivive markets. It is shown that the competitive vacancy rate is suboptimal and that it can be higher or lower than the optimal rate.     

Credit market imperfections and exchange rate variability

In this paper a two-country overlapping generations model is presented in which the roles of financial factors in the international monetary transmission mechanism are studied and whether and how the two types of credit market imperfections, limited participation, and costly state verification may contribute to the high variability of exchange rates are examined. Liquidity effects generated by monetary disturbances are shown to have qualitatively similar effects on the world economy in the perfect information case and in the costly information case. However, quantitative differences provide dfferent predictions about the variability of economic variables in the world economy. JEL Classification: F31, F41
Ce mémoire présente un modèle de deux pays où les générations se chevauchent pour étudier le rôle des facteurs financiers dans le mécanisme de transmission monétaire international, et pour examiner si les deux types d'imperfection (participation limitée et contrôle étatique coûteux) peuvent contribuer à une grande variabilité des taux de change et de quelle manière. On montre que les effets de liquidité engendrés par les perturbations monétaires ont les mêmes effets qualitatifs sur l'économie mondiale que l'information soit parfaite ou coûteuse. Cependant, il y a des différences quantitatives. Ces différences suggèrent des écarts dans les prévisions quant à la variabilité des variables économiques dans l'économie mondiale.     

Did fictitious profits contribute to the decline in the rate of profit?

Zusammenfassung Ein auf Anschaffungskosten basierendes Steuersystem führt in Zeiten steigender Inflationsraten zu Scheingewinnen und somit einer Erhöhung der realen Steuerbelastung. Als Folge wird ein Absinken des Ertrags pro eingesetzter Kapitaleinheit angeführt. Der folgende Aufsatz zeigt jedoch, daß diesem negative Effekt die Abzugsfähigkeit der Nominalzinsen und die in Österreich betriebene Zinspolitik als neutralisierende Einflüsse gegenüberstehen. Solange die Inflationsrate unter 10% bleibt und eine autonome Zinspolitik betrieben werden kann, bleibt die reale Ertragskraft des Eigenkapitals erhalten.     

Devaluation and Marx's Law of the tendential fall in the rate of profit

Marx's law of the tendential fall in the rate of profit predicts that the rate of profit will decline over the long term as the forces of production develop, and move cyclically in a way that explains crises and economic recoveries. This interpretation is substantiated with textual evidence, and with a method for measuring the dynamic of devaluation and revaluation which Marx uses to explain the profit rate cycle. This method is shown to be consistent with temporalism, meaning it avoids the transformation problem created by dual system interpretations, and the problem of the Okishio Theorem created by simultaneist interpretations. The article also includes a temporalist way to estimate the Monetary Expression of Labour Time, and empirical results for the effect of devaluation on the stock of fixed assets in the United States since 1930.