Past Successes and New Challenges： China＇s Foreign Trade at a Turning Point

Since 1979, China has recorded a remarkable trade performance, which has been driven by international processing and the offshoring strategies of foreign firms. The diversification of Chinese exports and their technological upgrading have been phenomenal However, there is also inertia, illustrated by the persistent dualism of the trade sector, the unrelenting specialization in downmarket products and the deteriorating terms of trade. These weaknesses have helped its partners to adjust to the rise of this new trade power. In the past decade, China＇s economy has faced the adverse effects o fan export-led growth and the global crisis has revealed its vulnerability. China is now forced to rebalance its economy. This will imply major changes in foreign trade, in favor of ordinary trade and away from processing. In the foreseeable future, China is unlikely to become the driver of international demand but will remain the engine of Asian economic integration.     

More effective utilization of FDI by China

Emerged from 1950＇s, with the huge emergences of multinational enterprises, foreign direct investment is developing along with international trade, and both of them present two main motivations of the world economy. Used to be one of the most closed countries, China has now been an indispensable part of the international economy since its economic reform in 1978. Normally big countries receive large amount of foreign direct investment, and as a huge country, China receives the top amount of FDI recently. For China, how to attract more FDI is less important than how to utilize FDI efficiently. If China uses FDI more efficiently, FDI could contribute more to its economic reform and developments. However, the efficient use of FDI is not an easy task for China with such large volume. This paper discusses the current situation of international capital flow and FDI to China, and then analyzes the issues concerning FDI in China from several different perspectives like terms of trade,, technology spillover, dual economy, domestic investment, MNEs in China, and spatial distribution of FDI in China, etc.. Finally, the paper gives conclusion of the situation of FDI in China and suggestion for the policies of efficient usage of FDI in China.     

Long-Term Development Trend of China＇s Economy and Importance of the Circular Economy

This paper aims to explore the solution to the contradiction between economic growth and resources and the eco-environment, based on an analysis of the features of China‘s economic development trend within a given future period, by promoting a new paradigm of technological economy, and speeding up development of the circular economy.     

The Empirical Analysis of the Reason and the Influence of the Rapid Growth of Foreign Exchange Reserves in China

The fluctuation of Chinese foreign exchange （Forex） reserve is affected by those factors, such as the volume of the Balance of Payments, the M2, the balance of external debts and so on. In this paper, the author establishes a model for the fluctuation of China＇s official foreign exchange reserve with the method of econometrics, finding out that it is the surplus of the balance of payments that results in the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves. Then, this paper uses substantial data to objectively demonstrate the negative impact of position for Forex purchase and its sterilization operation on monetary policy and the economic development of the diverse sectors and regions.     

Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on China： Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications

This paper applies a structural vector autoregression analysis to quantify the impact of the global financial crisis on China. It is found that the impact is indeed sizeable： a 1-percent decline in economic growth in the USA, the EU and Japan is likely to lead to a0. 73-percent decline in growth in China. The article discusses whether the current measures of fiscal stimulus are adequate to offset the sharp decline in external demand Although there is little doubt that the massive fiscal stimulus will largely offset the significant shortfalls in external demand, the current growth pattern in China will be increasingly unsustainable in the long term. China ＂s reform cycles suggest that external shocks are often opportunities for structural reforms. Therefore, the crisis could also be a catulyst for rebalancing China ＇s economic structure so as to return the economy to a sustainable path.     

Transition of China＇s Diplomacy and Foreign Relations

The present paper focuses on the transformation of China＇s foreign affairs. The transformation is closely associated with and mutually reinforced by the developmental changes that have taken place in China. China＇s strong economic focus has had a profound effect on its foreign relations and international strategies. With sustained growth over the past three decades （1978-2008）, China has become an important member of the world community. In particular, its influence has been growing in the Asia-Pacific area. China＇s unique developmental model and path are recognized and scrutinized worldwide. The present paper discusses special aspects of foreign aid and also explores the changes in principles of and approaches taken in the application of foreign aid policies. Under dual external and internal pressure, China has to constantly adjust, renew and improve its approach to diplomatic and international relations.     

Renminbi＇s Potential to Become a Global Currency

This paper is a tentative endeavor to delineate the potential of the renminbi to become a global currency. It first analyzes the critical economic, financial and policy attributes that are required to support a currency to gain an international role. It then examines whether China has the potential to acquire these attributes. The paper concludes by offering some provisional observations on the implications for Asia and the global economy, should the renminbi evolve into a world currency in the coming decades.     

The impact of foreign direct investment and trade on economic growth Taking China, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines ＆ Thailand for example

In this study the authors make efforts to survey the impact of foreign direct investment and trade on the economic growth of five East Asian countries, China, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. Using an augmented production function （APF） growth model, the authors apply panel data Method and data span is from1980 to 2006. The required data are extracted from World Development Indicator 2008. The result shows that a co-integration relationship between growth and its determinants in the APF model is supported. Firstly, the study shows that with the increasing the inflow of foreign direct investment, positive impact on growth in Thailand, Korea and China is proved. However, this impact is negative in Philippine and Malaysia. Also the impact of trade on economic growth has the same result with FDI impact in sign. Further, the impact of labor force on growth is not significant in these countries and the effect of gross fixed capital on growth is positive and has a very high impact on selected countries.     

Business Cycle in China since the Lehman Crisis： Interaction among Macroeconomic Policy,Economic Growth and Inflation

The major objectives of China＇s macroeconomic policy are to stabilize economic growth and inflation, which, in turn, are important factors determining key prices, such as the policy interest rate, the renminbi exchange rate and stockprices. In a framework that distinguishes different phases of the business cycle based on whether the current period＇s economic growth rate and inflation rate are above or below their ＂＇normal＂ values, this paper analyzes the interaction among macroeconomic policy, economic growth and inflation in China since the Lehman crisis, and the implications for these key prices. The path of China＇s economy indicates that stimulus measures taken by the government during the recession phase and tightening measures implemented during the overheating phase have helped minimize the fluctuation over the business cycle. Our analysis shows that Chinese authorities tend to rely more on adjusting the exchange rate than the interest rate to stabilize the economy. Comparing with conditions at the time of the post-Lehman recession, the current slowpace of economie growth in China may reflect not only weakening demand, but also a lowerpotential growth rate associated with the arrival of the Lewis turning point.     

Analysing Mechanism of an Economic Phase

In this paper, we define the thetical and antithetical phases of macroeconomy on a formal basis. And we formulate a bubble economy and its collapse by using these definitions. The concept of thetical and antithetical phases is introduced into economics by Kinoshita. In the course of discussion, we also make clear the difference between economic growth and bubble economy, while describing a mechanism of collapse of a bubble economy by using a simple macro-economic model instead of a specific model. As a result, we can analyse not only the state of thetical economy phase, and antithetical economy phase, but also bubble economy phase and bubble bursting economy phase. And we can describe mechanism of transitions among four economic phases.     

RMB Internationalization and Its Implications for Financial and Monetary Cooperation in East Asia

This paper emphasizes the importance of the denomination of financial assets rather than trade invoicing as a long-term determinant of an international currency. China needs to liberalize and open its financial system and make the RMB fully convertible, and to adopt a moreflexible exchange rate system to speed up its currency internationalization, for which China could follow either a global or regional approach. The global approach is a riskier and more unpredictable strategy because it would demand a scope and timeframe of financial liberalization that is likely to be beyond China＇s institutional capacity over the coming decade. There are two options that could be taken in following the regional approach. One is creating an ASEAN＋ New 3 （the Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong, and Taiwan） RMB bloc and the other is liberalizing China＇s financial industries and internationalizing the RMB by playing a leading role in East Asia＇s economic integration within the framework of ASEAN＋ 3, This paper concludes that the latter is a more realistic and effective approach for China.     

Global Cities in Process of World Economy Net-Working and Transnationalization

Cities play a key role in the modem global economy. They became full-fledged （together with states, multinational corporations, and international economic organizations） subjects of international economy relationships; concentrated financial and commodity markets, enormous productive and innovative potential of humanity. The main reasons of transformation of economic importance of cities are their advantages in comparison with State economic systems. Labor and capital in urban economy systems are more mobile and productive; cities are more predisposed to create and commercialize innovations. Moreover, cities are easier to connect with international markets and world trade, which are able to reduce transport costs, to increase own investment attractiveness, and to rapidly form new types of business activities and forms of manufacturing organization. This study analyzes a current system of global cities, an intensity of inter-cities relationships, a potential of global urban system transformations in a future.     

Analysis of China＇s Renewable Energy Development under the Current Economic and Technical Circumstances

At present, the development of renewable energy relies mainly on government support. The government invests in a considerable number of projects to improve public welfare and to assist in poverty relief If China is to replace fossil fuels on a large scale with renewable energy sources, the production costs and prices of renewable energy must be brought down. All countries are facing the challenge of moving to a more secure and low-carbon energy system without weakening economic and social development. In this regard, China is facing an even greater challenge in terms of economic cost, as cheap coal remains the main energy form. Technical innovation and industrialization in the area of renewable energy is an important means of lowering cost. China is in for a period of high-speed development of its economy and the rising demand for energy is irreversible. If the technical progress and development speed of renewable energy lags behind the growth in demand, it will be difficult to realize the improvement of its energy structure.     

Reforming the Financial Health Care System： The Case of the Republic of Albania

The Albanian health care system is currently in a period of deep transformation as well as the country is reflecting the future reforms after the turbulent development of the most recent years. The admission of Albania among future members of the European Union requires also an innovation in the health care system in order to build a model more compliant with the European performance and standards. These innovations are required also in the managerial approach to the health care and in its financing system. The aim of this paper is to analyze the actual financing model of the Albanian health care sector while highlighting the possible future managerial development. First of all, this article presents a history review of the Albanian health-care system, analyzing the current governance model. The goal of this approach is to describe the starting point of the reform paths for the future policy makers. Afterwards the research underlines the transition from a financing model based on historical public expenditure to a system based on the performance as one of the main innovation in the managerial approach to the health care. The introduction of management thinking will then allow developing a cost-based financing model, an accounting system in the teaching hospital and, finally, a financing system able to pay for services provided by private health care entities. The article then offers also a contribution to policy makers in order to define the ＂paths＂ of the Albanian health care system in the next years.     

Impact of Cross-Strait Trade Liberalization： A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper applies a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the potential economic effects of trade liberalization across the Taiwan Strait. Our simulation results reveal that cross-Strait trade liberalization will have significant positive impacts on external trade, domestic investment and real GDP for the economies in this area in general and in Taiwan in particular. Furthermore, the negative impact from the formation of a free trade arrangement between Taiwan and Chinese Mainland on Hong Kong seems to be rather small. These results suggest that cross-Strait trade liberalization is very likely to bring about a win-win situation for the economies in this area.     

Economic impact studies of Beijing 2008 Olympic Games

The paper provides an ex-ante analysis of the financial burden and potential economic benefit of the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. Owing to the lack of uniform financial data, cost and benefits analysis is not possible, so we have adopted a multi-criteria analysis （MCA） as a part of an Olympic Games impact study, to asses the possible economic impact of hosting the Olympics in Beijing. There are many aspects of a country that may change as a result of hosting the Olympic Games. Studies on the impact of previous Olympic Games have indicated that inward investment has been attracted by preparations for the Olympics which has increased the host cities global profile and by the legacy of additional facilities afterward. Beijing is already an establish city and prime destination for inward investment in China and Asia. Hosting the Olympics in 2008 might be expected to give rise to tangible positive effects on the over all level of economic activities.     

China＇s Economy in 2006/2007： Managing High Growth for Faster Structural Adjustment

China's economy in 2006 continued to register high growth of 10.5 to 10.7 percent with low inflation (CPI at 1.3 percent),dissipating fears of a hard landing. Since its accession to the WTO,China has become a significant global economic player,and is the favorite destination for many regional and global production networks. China is now a truly economic power (jingji daguo). China's economic leadership is also increasingly confident of its ability to manage China's domestic economic growth and its growing relations with the outside world. Although China's growth is expected to slow down in 2007 to approximately 9.5 percent,the national mood now is one of "more balanced" growth rather than "fast growth". Therefore,the building of a "harmonious society" is to be emphasized in China,while letting economic growth solve the burning social and environmental issues. In 2007,the government will also need to deal with various internal and external macroeconomic imbalances. The renminbi will be under even stronger pressure to revalue,given China's record trade surplus of US$160bn and foreign reserves of US$1tn.     

The economic uncertainty and private investment nexus in Iran： Application of the EGARCH model and the ARDL approach

This paper examines the impact of economic uncertainty on private investment in lran. In addition, the authors also examine the impact of other economic factors on the level of private investment. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag （ARDL） approach is applied to investigate the relationship of these variables. The data span is from 1975 to 2007. The results indicate that economic uncertainty has a significant negative effect on private investment. Public investment and the availability of financing have a significant positive effect on private investment, while the impact of output gap and the exchange rate is negative. Hence, government should aim at creating a stable macro-economic environment in order to makes private investment attractive.     

Blue Box Policy Reform in the Doha Round Negotiations： Effects and China＇s Position

This paper uses an agricultural trade policy simulation model to quantitatively evaluate the effects of Blue Box policy reform on agricultural production and trade, and further provides specific proposals regarding China ＇ s reform position. The results indicate that, if the reform could achieve a reduction in distorting supports in more developed countries, China＇ s total agricultural production would increase, accompanied by a decrease in agricultural imports and a slight increase in exports. In terms of social welfare, producers would gain significantly, consumers would lose and government would not suffer greatly, which is in accordance with current agricultural policies in China. As a core member of G20, China should approve a subsidy level as low as possible required by Blue Box to achieve ＂substantial reductions in trade-distorting domestic supports＂.     

China： Unscathed through the Global Financial Tsunami

This paper investigates the reasons behind the resilience of China＇s economy to the global financial tsunami. China ＇s economy is lowly leveraged in its banking, household, public and external sectors and, therefore, is less plagued by the global deleveraging than most developed economies. Chinese domestic sectors have improved significantly over the past decade, giving them larger capacity to cope with external shocks than during the Asian financial crisis a decade ago. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that China＇s economic growth is highly dependent on exports, we find that the main growth engine for China is domestic demand. Destocking, rather than falling exports, was the main cause of the sharp economic slowdown in China in late 2008 and early 2009. Therefore, the global economic slowdown should have limited impact on China＇s economy. We forecast a sustained eeonomic recovery in China in 2009-2011, with real GDP growth exceeding 10 percent in 2010.