Economic Growth and Structural Changes in Employment and Investments in China, 1985–94

This paper uses a shift-share method to quantify the components of economic growth and structural changes in employment and investments at both the national and regional levels. The results indicate that rapid economic growth has been characterized by significant shifts in employment and investments between industries in China. Such structural changes have a distinct regional pattern which has important policy implications regarding spatial disparities in economic growth and income. The results shed some important light on the understanding of Deng's development thought that is formalized in this paper as a multi-tier and multi-stage development strategy for a large developing economy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

贸易结构与就业结构:基于中国工业部门的分析

随着我国经济发展和改革开放,贸易结构不断变动,对就业水平和就业结构都可能产生重要影响。本文系统研究了我国工业制成品贸易结构变动的就业效应:首先建立了一个简明的理论框架,探讨贸易结构变动对就业结构的影响;然后运用投入产出法和偏差分解法对我国1993～2007年工业制成品贸易结构变化的就业效应进行经验分析。结果表明,研究期间内偏向资本技术密集型产品的贸易结构变动不利于就业,并导致我国的就业结构偏向熟练劳动。     

A nonlinear multivariate error components analysis of technology and specific factor productivity growth with an application to the U.S. Airlines

This study outlines a nonlinear model of technology and specific factor productivity growth and uses the model to analyze a new panel of sixteen domestic carriers in the U.S. airline industry over 35 quarters from 1970.I to 1978.III. We outline mapping procedures which allow construction of the production surfaces implied by the translog cost function used in our analysis. To our knowledge this study is the first to estimate such a general nonlinear multivariate error components model using full-information maximum likelihood.     

Employment in the EC,EFTA, and the EEA: A regional analysis

This study examines free trade zones from a regional perspective. These trade agreements are an attempt to create a large functional and administrative region that can improve the competitive position of member countries. With this in mind, techniques commonly used in regional economics can be employed to study the competitive effects of free trade zones. This paper develops the application of shift-share analysis to free trade zones. More specifically, the paper conducts a shift-share analysis of Europe over two time periods to asses the competitive advantages from belonging to the European Common Market.     

人工智能时代我国就业公平的挑战及其应对

人工智能在提高经济与发展效率的同时,也引起了人们对失业风险的担忧。基于就业公平的视角,本文从就业的地区公平、行业公平以及群体公平三个视角分析了人工智能时代下就业公平可能面临的挑战。研究表明,人工智能可能会加剧我国就业的地区间、行业间以及群体间的不公平。鉴于此,需加强公共就业服务均等化,发挥公共就业服务的就业支持功能,促进就业的地区公平;需增强失业保险的发展性与调剂性,发挥失业保险的就业促进功能,促进就业的行业公平;需提高就业救助的独立性与完整性,发挥就业救助的就业保护功能,促进就业的群体公平。     

Learning-by-doing and the sources of productivity growth: A dynamic model with application to U.S. agriculture

The significance of learning to productivity growth is formulated within a dynamic adjustment-cost framework. Explicitly treating the acquisition of knowledge as a firm-specific capital good entering the production function along with other conventional inputs, the dynamic optimization model integrates the learning-by-doing hypothesis with technical change, scale, and disequilibrium input use effects in the aggregate productivity analysis. The theoretical framework is applied to examining the dynamic components accounting for the growth of U.S. production agriculture over the 1950–82 period. The results imply a less important role for technical change and assign a substantial role to the previously unmeasured contribution of learning-by-doing to the growth of aggregate agriculture industry.The editor for this paper was Melvyn Fuss.     

A multiregional planning and forecasting model with special regard to the public sector

Despite the magnitude of the public sector and its rapid growth most multiregional economic models are lacking public sector content. The present paper aims at incorporating some of the roles of the public sector in the regional development. It is done within the framework of a multiregional optimization model for the allocation of private and public investment, production, employment (and population) over economic sectors and regions. By choosing appropriate objective functions, the model may be used for either planning or forecasting purposes. In the model the focus is on the public sector as a service and provision body and as a provider of public infrastructure. Its role as an agent for transfer payments is not stressed. The capacities of the model are illustrated by means of an example concerning Swedish regional development 1977–1983.     

FEDERAL REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT POLICIES IN CANADA: Employment Impact in Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces*

Three separate econometric methods based on a shift-share model of employment change are used to assess the effect of federal Department of Regional Economic Expansion (DREE) policies in creating manufacturing employment in the province of Quebec and the Atlantic provinces of Canada. Results cast doubt on some optimistic claims regarding the impact of DREE policies.     

现代物流产业发展对区域经济发展的促进作用

随着全球信息化和经济一体化趋势的发展，影响区域经济增长的因素呈现多样化和复杂化的态势，以信息化为主要支撑要素的现代物流业对区域经济的发展起到了促进新型产业形成、优化产业结构、增加就业机会、降低企业运行成本、提高资源配置效率的重要作用。     

基于系统动力学的区域物流供需机理分析——以天津市为例

在界定区域物流供给与物流需求的基础上,分析了影响区域物流供给和需求的主要因果关系,并建立了区域物流供需的系统动力学模型,利用该模型仿真模拟了天津市物流业供给和需求之间相互影响的动态过程,最终得到实现区域物流供需平衡的物流业增长率的理论最优值,从而为地区确定合理的物流业增长率目标提供理论上的参考。     

Firm interdependence in oligopolistic markets

This paper develops an econometric model capable of identifying the pattern of interdependent behavior among firms in an oligopolistic industry. The model is based on the necessary conditions for producer equilibrium which, for a firm in an oligopolistic market, include the firm's conjectural variations. The conjectural variations are unknown parameters. The production model is based on the translog production function. The domestic coffee roasting industry is analyzed. Industry and size class specific Cournot and equality hypotheses are tested. Interdependent behavior cannot be rejected.     

中国地区专业化促进经济增长的实证研究:1990～2007年

地区专业化对经济增长的影响是多方面的。本文从两个层面剖析中国地区专业化对经济增长的影响。首先,运用全域专业化指数对中国地区专业化进行整体测度,考察中国地区专业化与经济发展水平之间的演变规律;设计地区加权区位商指数,分析各省区市专业化部门综合实力的演化趋势。进而,直接测度中国各地区专业化部门对地区经济增长的贡献;通过偏离份额分析法分别对四大区域专业化部门促进工业经济增长的结构效应和生产率效应进行测算和分析。最后,基于上述实证研究进行总结并提出相关建议。     

BI-REGIONAL SAM LINKAGES: A MODIFIED BACKWARD AND FORWARD DISPERSION APPROACH

The aim of the paper is to apply a new backward and forward dispersion approach, starting from the original Rasmussen definition, which can give further insight into the interactions between industries and institutional sectors in a multiregional framework. The method is based on identification of the Macro Multipliers and the related impact components of a model based on a bi-regional SAM, which allows for the representation of the bi-regional multisectoral and multi-industry model in a two-dimensional space defined by the two dominating impact components. From such representation, we derive a set of indices of intraregional and interregional backward and forward dispersion that identifies key groups of industries and institutional sectors. The strength of these groups is further evaluated in terms of correlation of the impact components within the groups and cross-correlation between industry and institutional sectors groups. Comparative analysis among regional results gives a full picture of regional income policies.     

A Metafrontier Production Function for Estimation of Technical Efficiencies and Technology Gaps for Firms Operating Under Different Technologies

This paper presents a metafrontier production function model for firms in different groups having different technologies. The metafrontier model enables the calculation of comparable technical efficiencies for firms operating under different technologies. The model also enables the technology gaps to be estimated for firms under different technologies relative to the potential technology available to the industry as a whole. The metafrontier model is applied in the analysis of panel data on garment firms in five different regions of Indonesia, assuming that the regional stochastic frontier production function models have technical inefficiency effects with the time-varying structure proposed by Battese and Coelli (1992).     

The distribution of changes in manufacturing employment and the impact of the minimum wage

That employment for workers in durable goods industries is more sensitive to the pace of economic activity than for non-durable goods employees is not a surprising result. What is noteworthy about the conclusions of this study, however, is the manner in which increases in the minimum wage have altered the distribution of employment and sensitivity to short-run changes in employment of production workers in manufacturing industries. By focusing on the distribution of employment and how that distribution changes over the cycle, estimates of some aspects of the impact of the minimum wage that have not previously been analyzed have been developed.The evidence indicates that increases in the minimum wage over the period 1947–1975 have had a significant impact on employment patterns. Minimum wage legislation has had the effect of decreasing the share of projected employment and increasing vulnerability to cyclical changes in employment for the group of workers most ‘marginal’ to the work force low-wage industry employees. Hence, as a result of increased minimum wages, low-wage industry employees are able to obtain fewer jobs during periods of normal employment growth and their jobs are less secure in the face of short-run employment variations.Minimum wage legislation has undoubtedly resulted in higher wages for some of the relatively-low-productivity workers who were able to obtain employment than these workers would have received in its absence. The cost in terms of lost employment opportunities and cyclical vulnerability of jobs, however, has apparently been borne most heavily by low-wage industry employees. The primary beneficiaries of the shifts in the pattern of employment shares occasioned by minimum wage increases were high-wage industry workers, particularly in the ordnance, food, tobacco, and petroleum industries.     

A simultaneous model for regional labor supply, incorporating labor force participation, commuting and migration

Simultaneous relations between various components of the regional supply of labor and the situation on the regional labor market are developed. There is a distinction between migration, participation and commuting. Conventional research only devotes attention towards the partial relation between one of these components and the regional labor market situation. However, many decisions people make, involve a simultaneous approach towards participation, commuting and migration. This approach is operationalized at a macro-level by constructing a simultaneous supply model. For the specifications we go back to standard literature. In each of the equations, apart from variables that are specific for the particular function, special attention is given to the interrelation between the three supply variables. An overall simultaneity is described by a fourth endogenous variable: unemployment; this variable is explained by employment, participation, netmigration and netcommuting. A combined time-series/cross-section-analysis is used to estimate the model.

Surprisingly it appears that in comparison with OLS parameter- and t-values of the supply-equations are not affected by the use of simultaneous estimation techniques. Only for the unemployment-equation there are significant changes.     

The effects of dollar appreciation on sectoral labor market adjustments: Theory and evidence

We examine the extent to which exchange rate fluctuations affect sectoral employment and wages in the United States. We introduce a theoretical rational expectation model that decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. The model demonstrates the effects of demand and supply channels on the response of the nominal wage and labor employment to changes in the exchange rate. The evidence indicates that the deflationary effect dominates on industrial nominal wage in manufacturing and transportation industries in the face of dollar appreciation. More importantly, there is evidence of a decrease in employment growth in several industries in response to dollar appreciation, which is statistically significant in construction and at the aggregate level. This evidence is consistent with a decrease in labor demand given the loss of competitiveness of U.S. products following dollar appreciation. There are negative effects of dollar appreciation on labor market conditions in the United States. Nonetheless, dollar appreciation is consistent with an increase in employment growth in the mining sector where the share of imports is the largest among U.S. industries.     

陕西省建筑业产业结构及竞争力分析

介绍了传统的偏离份额模型以及其缺点,在此基础上提出了动态偏离份额模型,并运用动态偏离份额模型分析了陕西省建筑业产业结构及竞争力水平的发展情况,得出了结论,并对陕西省建筑业的未来健康发展提出了对策和建议。     

Interindustry analysis for regional growth and development: The dynamics of manpower issues

Simulations of two scenarios to illustrate processes of regional interindustrial growth and development suggest the dynamics of manpower issues. Using the core of the Sequential Interindustry Model, SIM, the dynamics by which interindustry production supplies continuing final markets is presented and the resulting industry production chronologies illustrated. The latter are transformed into employment chronologies from which labor requirements are computed as distributions of potential jobs by job duration and job starts.Adjustments in potential jobs to represent the dynamic linkages between manpower demand and supply in fluctuating labor markets are discussed as an extension of adaptive behavior in SIM. An encompassing impact dynamics framework for manpower assessment is suggested, including examination of management options of both demand and supply for timely impact mitigation.     

Knowledge diversity and entrepreneurship following an economic crisis: an empirical study of regional resilience in Great Britain

ABSTRACT

This article argues that the ability of entrepreneurs to facilitate regional adaptation to economic crises is mediated by the size and diversity of local knowledge stocks. The specific research question addressed is the hypothesis that, in the aftermath of a crisis, the birth rate of new firms will recover more rapidly in regions with a strong and diverse knowledge stock. It is theorised that unrelated knowledge diversity is of particular importance in stimulating new entrepreneurial opportunities and structural change, whilst the incentive to exploit opportunities differs according to region-specific factors. In addition to this theoretical contribution, the article develops spatial econometric models to test these research hypotheses using data on sub-regions of Great Britain for 2004–2014. The results support the central theoretical hypotheses and emphasise the positive significance of unrelated knowledge diversity and employment in knowledge intensive services to regional recovery from an economic shock. A key implication for policy-makers wishing to facilitate regional adaptation to crises is that it is important to focus on fostering entrepreneurship by developing a region’s stock of knowledge intensive services and the diversity of the knowledge creating sector, rather than relying on specialised clusters of firms.