天然气价格弹性实证研究——以上海市为例

随着天然气工程的相继建成以及天然气消费量的迅猛增长,天然气价格弹性研究对于天然气市场发展战略的制定及规划有着十分重要的影响。但目前我国这方面的研究相对较少。本文旨在运用计量经济学的分析方法,以上海的天然气消费数据为依据,分析上海天然气需求价格弹性特征。结果表明,上海市天然气价格缺乏弹性,且需求价格弹性为正,天然气价格受政策影响较大,这一结果能够为未来上海乃至全国天然气价格政策和战略的制定提供一定的量化基础。     

中国制造业能源替代的区域差异

通过建立超越对数成本函数,首先测算了28个省份制造业资本、劳动和能源的替代关系,随后结合VAR模型,研究了28个省份的石油、电力和天然气对煤炭的替代关系。结果表明:就总体来看,制造业对资本依赖程度明显提高,且资本对劳动力和资本对能源都存在明显替代关系;虽然制造业的劳动力自价格弹性绝对值不断增大,但能源自价格弹性较低,甚至最近几年为正值;制造业生产过程中投入的石油和天然气都可以替代煤炭,但替代能力都较弱。从区域角度看,各地区制造业能源替代差异明显。     

数字经济对天然气消费的影响 ——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

本文通过理清数字经济发展的特点和天然气消费现状,利用2009—2018年的省级面板数据,采用OLS分析法探索数字经济对天然气消费量的影响.结果显示:数字经济对天然气消费量具有正向拉动力;绿色金融与天然气消费之间呈现正相关关系;数字经济对天然气消费的影响具有区域异质性,即东部和东北地区的推动作用要强于中部和西部地区.对此...     

天然气管输价格制定方法与区域间利益平衡研究

社会发展下促进了经济的快速增长,天然气管道建设工作的不断增多与逐渐完工反映了我国能源消费逐渐进入"天然气时代"。天然气消费结构中,价格对天然气的消费量与产业自身的稳定发展产生直接影响。天然气的管输定价会对天然气市场价格产生影响。基于此,文章通过对实际情况的深入研究与分析,经过对我国在天然气管输定价中所存在的问题进行具体分析,以及在实施中应该如何对区域之间的利益实现平衡展开研究,促进天然气市场经济效益地更好提升。     

中国粮食生产要素之间的替代关系研究——基于劳动力成本上升的背景

论文采用1991~2013年中国粮食生产的相关投入与价格数据,基于超越对数成本函数的影子替代弹性估计方法,实证分析了劳动力成本上升背景下我国粮食生产的要素需求与替代关系,研究发现:(1)我国粮食生产的要素需求正处在理性的价格调节区间,要素价格仍然是调节要素需求的经济杠杆;与劳动力和化肥相比,机械投入对价格变化更为敏感,更容易受自身价格变化的冲击。(2)农业机械与劳动力存在明显的替代关系,且替代关系越来越强。这说明在劳动力成本快速上升的情形下,利用机械替代劳动可以大幅减少农业劳动投入,特别是可以有效缓解劳动力选择性转移带来的劳动力结构性短缺问题。(3)化肥与劳动也存在明显的替代关系,但替代关系稳中略降。经济激励是农户决策的首要考量因素,在劳动力成本快速上升的背景下,选择多量少次的施肥方式、增施化肥并减少农家肥投入,用化肥替代劳动成为农户的理性选择。     

中国天然气价格改革历程及思考

通过对中国天然气价格改革的历程的梳理,总结出中国天然气价格改革取得了重要的经验:天然气价格改革要结合国情、适应行业发展需要;天然气价格改革主要由生产企业推动;从价格水平、体系和机制等方面理顺天然气价格;天然气价格改革要重视对社会经济带来的冲击。     

天然气价格与天然气发展问题探究

天然气作为城市燃气的重要组成部分,将以其资源丰富、发展快速、使用方便的优势压倒石油和煤炭,成为今后必须大力提倡使用的清洁能源之一。本文通过分析天然气价格机制的现状及问题,提出了价格机制改革的新思路。指出我国应推进天然气定价市场化发展,建立天然气和替代能源的联动价格机制,设立专门管制机构监督,并出台统一的石油合作条例。     

山东省能源要素产出弹性、替代弹性的实证研究——基于超越对数生产函数的岭回归估计

构建了一个包含煤炭、石油、天然气和电力4种能源投入要素及时间趋势变量的超越对数生产函数,实证检验了1979—2009年山东省各能源要素的产出弹性、替代弹性及技术进步差异。结果表明:自改革开放以来,山东省的能源要素投入系统存在中性技术进步,技术进步率呈逐年递增趋势;山东省各能源要素的产出弹性逐年提高,按其均值由高到低排序依次是电力、石油、煤炭和天然气;1979—2009年期间煤炭与石油、煤炭与电力、石油与电力以及天然气与电力的替代弹性均大于1,石油与天然气的替代弹性虽然小于1,但自2000年后逐渐增大;山东省各能源要素的技术进步差异较小,按能源要素的技术进步率由高到低排序依次是煤炭、石油、电力和天然气。     

基于效率与公平的我国天然气资源省际分配研究

天然气是一种优质高效清洁的稀缺资源,如何公平、合理地在不同省市之间分配天然气是学术界和决策者关注的重要问题。本文首先界定了天然气分配的效率性和公平性,并选取度量指标,从全局最优的角度建立了基于多目标规划的天然气省际分配模型。以全国天然气利用效率最大化、各省天然气消费量在一次能源消费占比差距最小化、各省城镇人口人均天然气消费量差距最小化为目标,确定各省市的最优天然气分配量。结果显示,在综合考虑效率与公平因素后,优化结果较各省市实际分配量有较大变化,分配效果得到明显改善。     

京津冀产业结构优化与天然气消费研究——基于VAR模型

文章结合京津冀整体和下辖各地区的经济社会发展情况,利用VAR模型具体分析京津冀产业结构对天然气消费量的动态影响.研究结果表明:京津冀地区产业结构升级对区域天然气消费规模存在正向因果.北京市和河北省的天然气消费量受到产业结构高级化的促进效果更显著,而天津天然气消费量受产业结构合理化战略影响更显著.这一结论启示政府应根据京津冀不同地区情况强化政府的政策引领作用,促进区域产业优化升级、不断优化产业结构和空间布局、提升能源效率和优化能源结构,以实现区域经济、产业的可持续发展.     

Dynamics of the UK natural gas industry: System dynamics modelling and long-term energy policy analysis

We present a dynamic model of the indigenous natural gas industry in the UK. The model has been built using a system dynamics approach. Using the model several scenarios have been analyzed. We found that management of the supply-side policy alone cannot substantially postpone the discovery, production and consumption peak. We also found that the dynamics of the main variables, namely, exploration, production and consumption, are sensitive to initial demand conditions. Postponing the onset of gas price increases can therefore be achieved more effectively through efforts to reduce demand growth. One might expect that a low taxation policy would encourage more exploration and production of gas and thereby stimulate higher consumption rates. Instead, there was no overall net effect on production and consumption in the long term. The depletion effect on cost of exploration acts as counterbalance to low taxation policy. Depletion effect causes cost and thus price to rise further which depress consumption rate. The advances in exploration and production technology can delay the peak of exploration, production and consumption. Technological improvements mean lower cost of exploration and production which pressure down the long-term pattern of price dynamics.     

Natural gas,trade and sustainable growth: empirical evidence from the top gas consumers of the developing world

Natural gas is the key non-renewable source of energy for a low-carbon economy. The research applies heterogeneous panel techniques to investigate the impact of natural gas consumption on economic growth across a panel of top 15 natural gas consumers of the developing world. We establish long-run dynamics with cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity across the sample countries. The long-run output elasticities suggest that the natural gas consumption and trade variables have significant positive effect on the output in a panel of developing economies. Further, we establish feedback relationship among gas consumption, output and trade in the short-run. Given the significance of natural gas as the low-emission source of energy, we suggest governments and policy advisers of these major natural gas consumers to focus on developing pipeline infrastructure for adequate supply, reforming natural gas sector with a competitive price structure to combat excess demand in individual natural gas market. With trade integration, majority of these countries need to incorporate these initiatives to improve the technologies such as combined cycle power plant technology and value-added chemical production technology to achieve sustainable economic growth.     

Market Power with Interdependent Demand: Sale of Emission Permits and Natural Gas from Russia

With implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, Russia will most likely be able to exert market power in the emission permit market. But, as Russia is also a big exporter of fossil fuels, the incentives to boost the permit price may be weak. However, a significant share of Russia’s fossil fuel exports is natural gas. If a high permit price boosts the demand for natural gas through substitution from more polluting fuels and thus increase gas profits, this may increase the incentives to exert monopoly power in the permit market. Moreover, a large fossil fuel exporter may use its market position to influence the effective demand for permits. Hence, the relationship between permit income and fossil fuels exports runs in both directions. In this article, we explore the interdependence between the revenues from permit and fossil fuel exports both theoretically and numerically. A computable general equilibrium model suggests the fact that Russia as a big gas exporter has small effect on the incentives to exert monopoly power in the permit market. Moreover, Russia’s monopoly power in the permit market has a small, but non-negligible impact on the optimal level of Russian gas exports.     

The causal relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth: evidence from the G7 countries

This article re-examines the nature of the causality between natural gas consumption and economic growth in G7 countries over the period from 1965 to 2011. We employ the Granger causality procedure proposed by Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) which takes into account cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity across countries. Our overall empirical results support the neutrality hypothesis for the panel while the individual country results confirm the same result with the exception of the case of UK, where the conservation hypothesis is confirmed, showing that GDP causes natural gas consumption in the country. These results make policies that promote the consumption of natural gas risk-free with regard to their effects to the economic growth and development levels.     

Natural gas prices and stock prices: Evidence from EU-15 countries

This study investigates the long-run relationship between natural gas prices and stock prices by using the Johansen and Juselius cointegration test and error–correction based Granger causality models for the EU-15 countries. We employ quarterly data covering the period from 1990:1 to 2008:1. Empirical findings suggest that there is a unique long-term equilibrium relationship between natural gas prices, industrial production and stock prices in Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany and Luxembourg. However, no relationship is found between these variables in the other ten EU-15 countries. Although we detect a significant long-run relationship between stock prices and natural gas prices, Granger causality test results imply an indirect Granger causal relationship between these two variables. In addition, we investigate the Granger causal relationship between stock returns, industrial production growth and natural gas price increase for Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany and Luxembourg. As a result, increase in natural gas prices seem to impact industrial production growth at the first place. In turn, industrial production growth appears to affect stock returns.     

天然气开发企业产运销一体化协调发展评价指标体系设计

与石油相比,天然气具有不容易储存和运输方式单一的典型特点。严重依赖于管线运输使得天然气产运销各环节必须协调一致、同步发展才能产生较好的效益。结合天然气各业务环节的特点,建立了一套多层次的天然气开发企业产运销一体化协调发展评价指标体系,为天然气开发企业科学发展提供了规范的评价工具。     

香港引入核电及天然气发电的前因后果

香港无能源生产,所耗用之能源皆需进口;由于香港基本上为一个大都市,因而电力在能源经济中扮演举足轻重的角色,战后香港每年耗能的一半以上用于发电,近年电力的销售金额为各项能源之冠,１９９６年占总销售量的５７％,１９９４年香港开始引入广东大亚湾的核电,１９９６年由海南省的崖城天然气田输入天然气作发电之用,本文主要剖析引入电及天然气的前因后果。     

Estimation of demand function for natural gas in Iran: Evidences based on smooth transition regression models

This paper attempts to study the demand function of natural gas in Iran using smooth transition regression model (STR). To this end, gross domestic productions (GDP), real price of natural gas and temperature have been employed as variables explaining the natural gas demand from 1971 to 2009. The results indicate that natural gas demand follows an LSTR1 nonlinear two-regime model if the real price of natural gas is considered as the transition variable. Estimation results also indicate that the slope parameter approximately equals the high value of 10 and the threshold value is 31.82 Rials¹ per one cubic meter consumption of natural gas. The results strongly suggest that natural gas demand follows the gross domestic production during the last years, but temperature has no significant impact on natural gas demand in Iran.     

Export and import composition as determinants of bilateral trade in goods: evidence from Russia

Conventional theory and several empirical studies state that incomes and exchange rates are the key determinants of the trade balance. Here, we argue that export and import composition are also key explanatory variables because some goods are inelastic and/or with a high added value, directly and indirectly affecting income and price elasticities and trade balance. Thus, if exports and/or imports significantly consist of price inelastic products, then, a positive and a negative effect, respectively, should be expected on the trade balance. Using bilateral trade data and dynamic panel models, we found that the ratio of exports of crude petroleum and natural gas (price inelastic goods) to total exports is significantly and positively associated with the Russian trade balance in goods. For its part, Russian imports of high-tech goods (income elastic and price inelastic with a high added value) show a negative association. The goods balance of Russia also responded to changes in relative income, but there is only weak evidence of reactions to changes in the exchange rate. These findings partially explain the persistent surplus in the Russian trade balance and current account.     

The new long-term trend in the price of natural gas

A significant negative trend in the long-term price of natural gas at the wellhead is revealed from simulations with a partial equilibrium model of the industry in the United States. The model framework consists of a simultaneous equations system for production from reserves and for demands for production in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors. We utilize a wide range of historical data to calibrate the model and then develop two sets of scenarios for future prices, one based on further industry development under current regulation, and the other based on deregulation and development of an open market for gas services. The key variables — price of natural gas, level of production and inground gas reserves — for the next 10 years improve for the consumer whether or not there is deregulation but the second scenario leaves the consumer better off sooner.