Economic costs of alternative monetary policy responses to speculative currency attacks

The outcome of a speculative attack on the foreign exchange rate can be classified into three cases: (i) immediate depreciation of the nominal exchange rate, (ii) successful defense, or (iii) failed defense. This paper explores which of these outcomes yields the lowest cost in terms of output and unemployment in the short and medium run. Ex-ante the outcome of a speculative attack is uncertain, therefore the appropriate response of monetary authorities to a speculative attack depends on the cost of an immediate depreciation compared with that of the expected outcome of a currency defense. Our empirical analysis focuses on a sample of 73 emerging and developing countries over the 1960–2011 period. Our results indicate that an immediate depreciation is the policy response that is associated with a lower expected output loss and unemployment in the short run and it tends to be expansionary in the medium run. A defense, if successful, entails insignificant costs in the short run but, unlike an immediate depreciation, a successful defense is not expansionary in the medium run. If a defense fails, large output losses and an increase in unemployment ensue, at least in the short run.     

A note on the relationship between Fama–French risk factors and innovations of ICAPM state variables

This note examines, over various time scales, the extent to which SMB (the difference between the average returns of the small-stock portfolios and big-stock portfolios) and HML (the difference in returns between the high-BM portfolios and low-BM portfolios) factors share information with the innovations of state variables, which are interpreted as alternative investment opportunities. To examine the relationship, we adopt a new and innovative approach of wavelet analysis as our main empirical method. It is found that SMB and HML may play only a limited role in capturing alternative investment opportunities in the short run, but they share much information with alternative investment opportunities in the long run.     

Corporate Tax Consolidation and Enhanced Cooperation in the European Union*

We assess the economic impact of introducing consolidation with formula apportionment in the European Union and consider alternative enhanced cooperation agreements. We find that the consolidation is likely to yield a small aggregate welfare gain in Europe. However, not all countries benefit. A coalition of winning countries reduces the welfare gain and may induce a process of adverse selection which destroys the possibility of cooperation. We find that a coalition of similar countries (in terms of the size of their multinational sector) is more feasible in achieving agreement and is actually preferred by those countries over a Europe‐wide reform.     

Unemployment and workers' compensation programmes: rationale,design, labour supply and income support

I examine the unemployment insurance (UI) and workers' compensation (WC) insurance programmes, concentrating on labour supply, insurance and income redistribution. UI and WC increase the time employees spend out of work. Elasticities of lost work time that incorporate both the incidence and duration of claims are centred at 1.0 for UI and between 0.5 and 1.0 for WC. These elasticities are larger than elasticities typically found in studies of wage effects on hours worked by men, probably because UI and WC lead to short‐run variation in wages with mostly a substitution effect and the programmes alter the participation margin. Some good evidence suggests that UI smooths the consumption of the unemployed and more clearly indicates that UI progressively redistributes resources. There is substantial evidence that injured workers suffer material hardships even with WC programmes, but research has not provided an overall picture of the insurance and redistributive aspects of WC.     

Optimal strike prices of stock options for effort-averse executives

This paper evaluates the common practice of setting the strike prices of executive option plans at-the-money. Hall and Murphy [Hall, Brian, Murphy, Kevin J., 2000. Optimal exercise prices for executive stock options. American Economic Review 90 (2), 209–214] claim this practice to be optimal since it maximizes the sensitivity of compensation to firm performance. However, they do not incorporate effort and the possibility that managers are effort-averse into their model. We revisit this question while explicitly introducing these factors and allowing the reward package to include fixed wages, options, and stock grants. We simulate the manager’s effort choice and compensation as well as the value of shareholders’ equity under alternative compensation schemes, and identify schemes that are optimal. Our simulations indicate that, when abstracting from tax considerations, it is optimal to award managers with options that will most likely be highly valuable (i.e., substantially in-the-money) on their expiration date. Prior to 2006, the tax code and financial reporting standards provided incentives to award options that are closer to the money when issued than the options that were optimal in the absence of these considerations. Recent tax and reporting changes voided these incentives and thus we predict that these changes will induce firms to issue options with lower strike prices than those that were issued prior to 2006.     

China's Abolition of the Agricultural Tax,Local Governments’ Responses and Economic Growth

When evaluating agricultural policy changes, much of the attention in the literature has been limited to agricultural productivity growth. This study demonstrates that, under a regionally decentralised authority system, the effect of China's abolition of the agricultural tax (AAT) in 2004–05 extended beyond the realm of agriculture. We find that, following the AAT reform, Chinese counties with higher reliance on agricultural taxation for budgetary revenue prior to the AAT reform experienced higher agricultural economic growth, as expected, but lower non‐agricultural economic growth in the short run. This growth‐inhibiting effect of the AAT reform on non‐agricultural production in the short run can be explained, to some extent, by the increased non‐agricultural taxation due to the insufficient funds that Chinese county governments received from the upper‐level governments following the AAT reform; the magnitude of this tax increase was associated with the degree to which each county relied on agricultural taxation for budgetary revenue prior to the reform. In addition, our results show that the AAT reform resulted in a high level of regional inequality in terms of non‐agricultural GDP per capita. In summary, our study shows that although the AAT reform succeeded in promoting agricultural production, such accomplishments were achieved at the cost of lower non‐agricultural output growth and higher regional inequality of non‐agricultural GDP per capita at the county level.     

Maximum fee versus child benefit: a welfare analysis of Swedish child-care fee reform

The effects of a recent Swedish child-care fee reform are compared with those of an alternative reform, increased child benefits. The fee reform implied considerably decreased fees and was intended to increase both labor supply among parents and their economic well-being. We estimate labor supply effects using a discrete choice labor supply model, and simulate behavioral responses to the changes. We find positive, but small, effects on labor supply from reduced fees, while increased child benefits would make single mothers decrease their labor supply. On the other hand, increased child benefits would make income distribution more equal. We make a social welfare comparison and conclude that for plausible values of inequality aversion, the alternative reform would have been preferred to the implemented fee reform. The views expressed in the paper do not necessarily reflect those of the Swedish Ministry of Finance.     

CEO contract design: How do strong principals do it?

We study changes in chief executive officer (CEO) contracts when firms transition from public ownership with dispersed owners to private ownership with strong principals in the form of private equity sponsors. The most significant changes are that a significant portion of equity grants performance-vests based on prespecified measures and that unvested equity is forfeited by fired CEOs. Private equity sponsors do not reduce base salaries, bonuses, and perks, but redesign contracts away from qualitative measures. They use some subjective performance evaluation, do not use indexed or premium options, and do not condition vesting on relative industry performance. We compare the contracts to predictions from contracting theories, and relate our results to discussions of executive compensation reform.     

Executive stock options,differential risk-taking incentives,and firm value

The sensitivity of stock options' payoff to return volatility, or vega, provides risk-averse CEOs with an incentive to increase their firms' risk more by increasing systematic rather than idiosyncratic risk. This effect manifests because any increase in the firm's systematic risk can be hedged by a CEO who can trade the market portfolio. Consistent with this prediction, we find that vega gives CEOs incentives to increase their firms' total risk by increasing systematic risk but not idiosyncratic risk. Collectively, our results suggest that stock options might not always encourage managers to pursue projects that are primarily characterized by idiosyncratic risk when projects with systematic risk are available as an alternative.     

银行分支机构、经济增长与城乡收入差距

本文基于VAR模型,运用协整检验、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果检验实证分析了银行分支机构变动对经济增长和城乡收入差距的长短期影响。研究结果表明：一是精简银行分支机构数量长期有利于我国经济增长,但是短期效果不显著,1998年后推动的国有商业银行分支机构撤并改革对于促进我国的经济增长有重要意义;二是精简银行分支机构数量长期来看会扩大城乡收入差距,在短期内精简银行分支机构却有利于城乡收入差距的缩小;三是1998年的国有银行机构调整是一种＂制度性进步＂。因此,需要进一步深化我国银行机构改革,在提升银行机构经营效率的同时,加大对农村地区的银行机构布局力度。     

Peer choice in CEO compensation

Current research shows that firms are more likely to benchmark against peers that pay their Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) higher compensation, reflecting self serving behavior. We propose an alternative explanation: the choice of highly paid peers represents a reward for unobserved CEO talent. We test this hypothesis by decomposing the effect of peer selection into talent and self serving components. Consistent with our prediction, we find that the association between a firm's selection of highly paid peers and CEO pay mostly represents compensation for CEO talent.     

Child Support Reform: Some Analysis of the 1999 White Paper

This paper uses a sample of lone mothers (and former lone mothers who are now repartnered) drawn from the 1997 Family Resources Survey to analyse the potential effects of reforming the UK system of child support. The main deficiency of the data is that non-resident fathers cannot be matched to the mothers in the data, and this is overcome by exploiting information from another dataset which gives the joint distribution of the characteristics of separated parents. The effects of reforming the child support system are simulated for the amount of maintenance liabilities, the amount paid and the net incomes of households containing mothers-with-care and of households containing non-resident fathers. The likely effects of the reform are simulated at various levels of compliance. The analysis highlights the need for further research into the incentive effects of child support on individual behaviour.     

The Effects of Reduced Social Security Contributions on Employment: An Evaluation of the 2003 French Reform*

In 2003, the French government decided to reform the system managing the different minimum wage regulations and the targeted reductions to employers' social security contributions. The main objective of the Fillon reform was to simplify the complex regulations that were created by the progressive introduction of the 35‐hour week. The reform incidentally created large variations in labour costs, depending on the type of firm and the wage level within the firm. This paper presents an evaluation of the impact of this reform on employment using a balanced panel of firms with more than five employees, drawn from a matching between several administrative data sources from 2000 to 2005.     

绩效、控股权与战略投资者:转型经济银行改革的经验

东欧转型经济与中国当前的银行改革具有相似性。东欧国家在第一次银行改革中保持了国有控股权,但并没有提高经营绩效,继续开放导致超过75%的银行资产被外资控制。东欧国家的经验表明:在继续保持国有控股的情况下,引进战略投资者作为小股东并不能建立良好的银行治理结构,也不会有效改善经营业绩;而外国战略投资者控股银行后能够显著提高银行业绩,但国家也丧失了银行控股权,似乎在现有的改革路线中改善绩效与保持银行控股权二者不可兼得。因此,中国如果必须保持国内力量对主要银行的控股权,则应借鉴招商银行模式,建立国内大型企业法人持股的治理结构。     

UK Vice Chancellor compensation: Do they get what they deserve?

The compensation received by UK Vice Chancellors (VCs) has been on an upward trend in recent years and attracted a lot of negative media attention. In this paper, we examine whether VCs receive the compensation they deserve. Using a panel dataset covering the academic years 2007/2008 to 2018/2019, we develop a model to predict expected VC compensation to determine whether VCs are over- or undercompensated. Our model finds that VCs are not overcompensated regarding their base salary, but some are overcompensated in terms of their benefits and pension contributions. However, there is very little difference in terms of characteristics of over- and undercompensated VCs, indicating that on average, UK VCs receive the compensation they deserve. For robustness purposes, we employ a variety of alternative model specifications and subsamples which all support our previous findings.     

Who Benefits from the Reform of Pension Taxation in Germany?*

The present paper quantifies the revenue, distributional and efficiency effects of the recent reform of pension taxation in Germany. The starting point is the new legislation, which has introduced a switch to the deferred taxation of retirement benefits starting in 2005. We compare this reform with an alternative transition proposed by the Federation of German Pension Insurance Institutes (VDR), where double taxation is avoided at the cost of higher revenue losses. Our simulations indicate significant growth and efficiency gains from the new tax legislation. Winners from the reform are mainly younger workers, while older workers, civil servants and the self‐employed will lose. The VDR proposal would have resulted in higher efficiency gains, but also in stronger distributional consequences.     

墨西哥银行业重组经验对我国银行业改革的启示

1991-2003年,墨西哥银行业先后经历了依靠内资的私有化改革阶段和依靠外资的自由化改革阶段,改革成效迥异。本文对其两个阶段改革过程和改革成效进行了较为深入的分析,指出从墨西哥改革经验来看,引入境外战略投资者比单纯依赖国内投资者更有利于银行业的发展,但同时也必须防范引进外资可能带来的负面影响。最后从引资目标、会计准则、产权制度、存款保险制度、法律环境等方面阐述了墨西哥银行业重组对我国银行业改革的启示。     

REFORMING PROPERTY RIGHTS IN LAND AND TENANCY

This article examines the nature and distribution of propertyrights in land and how they are changing under economic anddemographic pressures. It also analyzes the practical chancesof success of several alternative forms of policy interventionto redistribute property rights and regulate tenancy. This analysisbegins with the political economy of land reform in the twentiethcentury. It draws a distinction between reforms precipitatedby social upheaval (defeat in war, social revolution, or nationalliberation) and those that occur in "normal" times, when thesocial and political order is more secure. It is argued thatthe former have been much more important and, drawing on examples,that the latter face formidable obstacles. In this connection,it is proposed that a tax reform which does away with the highlyselective subsidies and exemptions that benefit the rich andinflate the price of land should be undertaken first. Then,when land prices have fallen, compulsory purchase of land forredistribution, at close to fair market value to ensure itspolitical acceptability, would not entail an intolerable fiscalburden. Where tenancy is concerned, it is argued that this institutionis commonly a socially useful market response, which providesopportunities for the fuller employment of family resourcesand, over the long run, for individual mobility. Thus interventionsdesigned to inhibit tenancy directly or to transfer ownership-likerights to existing tenants may result in heavy costs, especiallyfor future cohorts of would-be tenants.      

Unemployment and debt dynamics in a highly indebted small open economy

The paper analyzes the dynamic effects of a total factor productivity shock and an interest rate risk premium shock in a highly indebted open economy. In contrast to the standard open economy framework, search unemployment and wage bargaining are introduced. We find that a negative total factor productivity shock primarily has effects on the economy's production side and on welfare, but not on its stock of foreign debt and the country specific risk premium, and large part of the adjustment happens in the short-run. In contrast, a pure increase in the country specific risk premium causes substantial dynamics and a considerable reduction in foreign debt, allowing higher consumption in the long run and creating an intertemporal welfare gain, even though unemployment increases strongly in the short-run. A 50% haircut of foreign debt significantly reduces the initial response of the unemployment rate. In case of a temporary productivity shock, sticky wages imply smaller employment, but generate higher welfare than flexible wages.     

Endovascular treatment of carotid artery stenosis

Carotid artery stenting (CAS) was originally developed as an alternative to carotid endarterectomy (CEA) for high-risk patients. CAS is illustrated with before and after angiograms showing severe recurrent stenosis treated with a self-expanding stent. Indications and available outcome data for CEA and CAS are summarized. The future for CAS may well be bright, but the procedure is early in its development. Further trials are needed to demonstrate its long-term efficacy compared with CEA.