减税降费的价格和福利效应——引入成本传导率的投入产出价格模型分析

本文在增值税抵扣机制的投入产出价格模型中引入社保费和成本传导机制,并利用2017年中国投入产出表和税收数据模拟分析了不同成本传导率条件下,减税降费的价格效应和福利效应。研究表明:(1)减税降费使得各行业产品价格降低,对第三产业的价格影响最为明显。(2)成本传导率越高,则产品价格的下降幅度越大。当成本传导率分别为1/3、2/3和1时,各行业产品价格的平均下降幅度分别为0.32%、0.93%和2.66%。(3)较为合理的中国整体成本传导率约为1/3,减税降费是2019年中国PPI下降的主要因素之一。当成本传导率为1/3时,模拟计算的PPI下降幅度与国家统计局公布的2019年PPI的下降幅度(-0.3%)非常接近。(4)减税降费使消费者价格下降,居民福利得以改善,且城镇居民福利改善高于农村居民。随着价格传导率增大,城镇居民与农村居民的人均福利改善差距扩大。     

减税降费与企业价值——来自上市制造业企业的证据

本文以2019年3月21日发布《关于深化增值税改革有关政策的公告》和2019年5月1日正式执行《降低社会保险费率综合方案》为政策背景,通过事件研究法,测算上市制造业企业在政策执行前后的收益率变化,以此研究减税降费政策对制造业企业价值的影响。研究发现,减税降费政策对样本企业的收益率有提升作用,且中低技术制造业企业与广东、浙江以外地区制造业企业的收益率提升幅度更大。基于研究结果,本文建议持续实施减税降费政策,做好政策落实工作;有针对性、分地区设计高技术制造业税收优惠政策,并允许社会保险费费率上调地区平稳过渡,增强制造业企业在减税降费中的"获得感"。     

Banks, private money, and government regulation

We study competition between inside and outside money in economies with trading frictions and financial intermediation. Claims on banks circulate if the redemption rate is low. When the quantity of fiat money is scarce, coexistence of inside and outside money dominates equilibria with a unique medium of exchange. If outside money is ample, banks choose to redeem claims in outside money, which increases welfare. Under binding reserve requirements, tightening monetary policy leads to credit rationing. Our results support recent trends toward lower reserve requirements. However, we also identify situations where restrictions on note issue are beneficial.     

Debt Issue Costs and Issue Characteristics in the Market for U.S. Dollar Denominated International Bonds

This paper analyzes the issue costs and initial pricing of bonds in the international market. In particular, we investigate the determinants of three components of issue costs: underwriter fee, underwriter spread (the difference between the offering price and the guaranteed price to the issuer), and underpricing (the difference between the market price and the offering price). Total underwriter compensation increases with the bonds' credit risk and maturity, but it is insignificantly related to issue size. Interestingly, underwriters appear to price some issue characteristics directly (by adjusting the fee) and other characteristics indirectly (by setting the guaranteed price). The two compensation components (fee and spread) are negatively related to each other. We provide evidence that this trade-off is consistent with income tax considerations, as well as with two-tier pricing by underwriters. We find no evidence of underpricing.     

An Analysis of Yield Curve Notes

This paper analyzes a new type of security, the yield curve note, which pays interest at a rate that varies inversely with short-term interest rates. A valuation model for yield curve notes is presented, the parameters of the model are estimated empirically, and the estimated model is used to explore, in simulation, the price behavior and risk characteristics of yield curve notes in comparison with fixed-rate notes. The risk of a yield curve note is approximately twice as great as a fixed-rate note with the same maturity. The unique risk characteristics of yield curve notes make them useful (as liabilities) in immunization strategies for financial institutions. Their usefulness in this regard may be the chief rationale for their development.     

税费整合的动因及主要内容探析

税费整合涉及国家经济结构及税费体制的变革,旧体制下的税费结构严重影响着分配效率。本文对我国部分税费整合的可行性做了初步的分析和探索,以期为我国税费整合的实践提供参考。     

我国石油、天然气行业税费制度探析

本文首先介绍了我国石油、天然气行业的相关税费制度,归纳了国外石油税制的经验。在此基础上,对我国石油、天然气税费制度中存在的问题进行了分析,并对完善我国石油、天然气行业的税费制度提出了若干政策建议。     

Indirect taxation and tax incidence under nonlinear pricing

This paper study how a change in specific and ad valorem taxes under nonlinear pricing affects tax incidence. We show that an increase in either tax rate leads to a higher usage fee for all consumers, whereas the fixed fee under reasonable assumptions will fall. Finally, the model shows that the presumption in favor of ad valorem taxes over specific taxes also holds under nonlinear pricing and incomplete market coverage.     

Housing and Tax Policy

This paper investigates the effects of housing‐related tax policy measures on macroeconomic aggregates using a dynamic general‐equilibrium model featuring borrowing and lending across heterogeneous households, financial frictions in the form of collateral constraints tied to house prices, and a rental housing market alongside owner‐occupied housing. We analyze the effects of various tax policies and find that they all lead to significant output losses, with large long‐run tax multipliers of around 2. Among them, reducing the mortgage interest deduction is the most effective in raising tax revenue per unit of output lost, whereas reducing the depreciation allowance for rental income is the least effective.     

ACCOUNTING FOR SEIGNIORAGE

This paper examines anomalies in the accounting procedures for the treatment of seigniorage on the Australian note and coin issue. It explains how the substitution of coins for notes leads to the unexpected result of reducing the budget deficit     

论矿产资源税费改革

本文探讨了我国相关资源税费的经济性质,认为矿产资源补偿费从本质上说是更广泛意义上的矿山绝对地租,而资源税则包含着矿业级差地租,二者应该重新组合为新的矿产资源补偿费或＂权力金＂,在此基础上,资源税则应以可持续发展为立足点,着眼于外部环境成本的补偿,促进循环经济发展和环境友好型社会的建设.     

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Customer Markets

We present a model in which some goods trade in “customer markets” and advertising facilitates long‐lived relationships. We estimate the model on U.S. data and find a large congestion externality in the pricing of customer market goods. This motivates the analysis of optimal policy. Under a complete set of taxes, fiscal policy eliminates the externalities with large adjustments in tax rates on customer markets goods, while labor tax volatility remains low. Constraining the instruments to the interest rate and labor tax, the optimal labor tax displays large and procyclical fluctuations, but monetary policy is little changed compared to a model with no customer markets.     

Optimal fiscal policy under multiple equilibria

We study optimal fiscal policy in an economy where (i) search frictions create a coordination problem and generate multiple, Pareto-ranked equilibria and (ii) the government finances the provision of a public good by taxing market activity. The government must choose the tax rate before it knows which equilibrium will obtain, and therefore an important part of the problem is determining how the policy will affect the equilibrium selection process. We show that when the equilibrium selection rule is based on the concept of risk dominance, higher tax rates make coordination on the Pareto-superior outcome less likely. As a result, taking equilibrium-selection effects into account leads to a lower optimal tax rate.     

海南自由贸易港销售税制度研究

科学合理的税费制度对于海南自由贸易港发展具有至关重要的作用.行将启动的简并增值税、消费税、车辆购置税、城市维护建设税及教育费附加等税费,以及已经启动的在货物和服务零售环节征收销售税的税制改革是实现海南自由贸易港税制设计目标的重要举措.海南自由贸易港销售税宜采取"窄税基、高税率"的设计思路.销售税征收宜根据不同应税商品的...     

个人所得税改革对居民消费的效应评价与完善路径

当前我国居民消费不足的最主要原因在于居民收入水平不高、国民收入分配失衡,所以2018年个人所得税改革的重点是提高费用扣除标准、调整税率结构,降低纳税人负担,增加纳税人可支配收入,提高居民消费水平。要进一步促进居民消费,个人所得税有必要继续减税,同时进一步调节收入分配差距,使收入分配更加公平。具体对策包括:将专项附加扣除中的子女教育支出范围扩大为子女养育支出,增加家庭合并征税模式,费用扣除标准指数化动态调整,进一步优化税率结构,建立负所得税制度。     

Salomon brothers and the May 1991 Treasury auction: Analysis of a market corner

In May 1991, the Treasury sold $12.29 billion in two-year notes. Through improper bidding, Salomon Brothers gained control of at least 86 percent of the issue. This study investigates the impact of Salomon's attempted corner by examining the postauction price behaviour of the two-year note. Based on a no-arbitrage relation, the results show that the two-year note was substantially overpriced for approximately six weeks following the auction. The typical mispricing during this period is estimated at 0.16 to 0.25 percent of par. In dollar terms, the aggregate misvaluation averaged $20–$30 million, and, by controlling the supply of the issue, Salomon stood to gain substantially from the squeeze.     

新个税法模式下的劳动者权益探究

"公平"是税收环节开展与劳动关系平衡的交叉范畴,依附于人身属性以获取财产性利益的劳动者在个人所得税缴纳中占主体地位,工资薪金所得更是个人所得税的丰厚税源。新个税法由"分类税制"向"分类-综合并行二税制"模式转变,以实现对横向税负公平与纵向税负适度的保障,通过劳动性所得综合征税设置、综合所得税率调整、费用扣除标准设计三个主要方面调节劳动者权益杠杆,影射出对公民权利与义务的对等性追求。新个税改革无论在个税税制模式上抑或是税率级距设置上无不体现着对中低收入群体的福利关怀。     

A collateral tax sanction: When does it mimic a welfare-improving tag?

The suspension of a driver’s license or the revocation of a passport or a professional license are used by the tax authorities as sanctions for failure to comply with tax obligations and are referred to as collateral tax sanctions. In this paper, I propose a new rationale for why it may be beneficial to use collateral tax sanctions for the purpose of tax enforcement. By affecting consumption and providing enforcement targeted to a group, collateral tax sanctions may allow the government to impose punishment correlated with an individual’s earning potential. Such punishment also makes the effective tax rates correlated with an individuals’ earning potential and therefore leads to a more effective redistribution of income. I show that the use of collateral tax sanctions could increase the CES social welfare function when the skill distribution of the targeted group first-order stochastically dominates the skill distribution of the other group and the social welfare function is sufficiently concave.     

Monetary policy, taxes, and the business cycle

This paper analyzes the interaction of inflation with the tax code and its contribution to aggregate fluctuations. We find significant effects operating through the tax on realized nominal capital gains. A tax on nominal bond income magnifies these effects. Our innovation is to combine monetary policy shocks with non-indexed taxes in a model where the central bank implements policy using an interest rate rule. Monetary policy had important effects on the behavior of the business cycle before 1980 because policymakers did not exert effective control over inflation. Monetary policy reform around 1980 led to better control, and with more stable inflation, the effect of the interaction between monetary policy and the nominal capital gains tax has become negligible.