A股与B股跨市场羊群效应:基于CCK模型的实证检验

各金融市场之间关联度越来越大,我国A股、B股市场的羊群效应亦可能相互传导。在学者们对金融市场羊群效应的研究基础上,进一步说明A股与B股跨市场羊群效应的产生机理,构建跨市场CCK模型以检验A股与B股跨市场羊群效应的存在性和不同市场条件下跨市场羊群效应的非对称性。实证检验发现,短期内跨市场羊群效应普遍存在;并且在市场收益率高、交易量大、波动性强时,跨市场羊群效应更加显著。     

浅析我国B股市场的战略定位

中国证监会关于向境内居民开放B股市场的决定，对B股市场的发展产生了深远的影响。其深层意义在于创造了吸引境外投资者的有利环境，并将充分发挥B股市场应有的作用和带动A股市场规范运作及稳健发展。在经过较长时间发展后，A、B股市场的合并将是我国证券市场的发展趋势。     

B股对内开放的几点思考

B股对境内投资者开放，虽有利于激活B股市场，但对急欲盲目入市的散户有着极大的风险。目前用B股的低市盈率论和A、B股的巨大差价并轨论来讨论B股的上涨空间，并以此论点诱导散户盲目入市不利于B股市场的长期稳定发展。     

B股市场的未来出路及相关外汇管理问题研究

国家对于B股市场的未来出路一直没有定论.B股市场筹集外资的功能目前已基本被H股和红筹股取代,B股市场完全失去了存续理由.在对回购注销B股、推出国际板并与B股市场合并以及A、B股合并3种出路优劣进行比较的基础上,我们认为A、B股合并是最优出路,并提出了先允许发行B股投资基金,再允许境内合法持有外汇的机构投资B股,最后实现A、B股合并的"三步走"的思路.对于A、B股在合并过程中可能涉及到的几个相关外汇管理问题,我们都提出了明确的研究结论.     

中国股票市场B股上市对A股价格影响的实证研究

本文利用事件分析的标准方法检验了中国股票市场B股上市对A股价格的影响。本文发现：A股上市企业在B股招股公布前价格出现明显的正超额收益，但上市后就大幅下跌，主要原因在于投资者预期收益随着市场分割程度的降低和投资者数量的增加而下降，与国外情况不同的是，B股上市后A股流动性降低也是导致价格下跌的原因之一，这说明国内企业管理层双重上市的主要目的不是为了增加股东价值，而存在其他的非经济利益的考虑。     

A股B股并存的前景

一段时间以来,A、B股合并问题一直是市场炒作的题材,受消息影响,股市涨跌不止.日前中国证监会主席周小川在上海透露,在面对未来挑战的同时,必然要解决历史遗留问题.据周小川介绍,难度较大的历史遗留问题主要是A、B股并存问题和法人股不能流通问题.A、B股并存问题,本质上讲是由于在资本项下人民币不能自由兑换,最彻底的解决办法是等待货币本身的自由兑换.但是并不是说在这之前我们就无可作为了.     

流动性、风险收益与B股市场境外投资者行为

通过对B股市场的流动性、风险及国外投资者的投资动机进行了研究和度量后发现,B股市场对内开放的确加强了它的流动性,但是B股市场波动风险依然高于A股市场,且国外投资者投资B股市场受流动性变化影响不大,因为其他们投资的主要目的不是分散风险而是获取超额预期回报率。因而,在B股市场存废问题在短期内不能解决的情况下,加强B股市场管理,改善市场结构,对国外投资者的投资行为进行合理的监督和引导是完善B股市场的非常重要的举措。     

B股市场相关问题研究

B股的正式名称是人民币特种股票.我国于1990年初设立B股市场,初衷是为国内企业寻求外资,以求在人民币不能自由兑换、外资不能进入A股市场的情况下,达到既从国外筹集资金,又避免外资给处于起步阶段的国内证券市场造成冲击的目的.多年来,B股市场可谓命运坎坷.1992年2月第一只B股真空B股在上海发行上市,1992年到1997年6年间,B股市场每年以十几家的速度在增长,其间的1993年,上市的B股达到了22家的历史高纪录,到了1997年年底,在沪深两地上市的B股就已达到了101家.不过随着H股、N股等企业直接到境外上市的步伐加快,境内企业通过B股市场吸引外资的意向越来越少.特别是自1997年红筹股、H股大量发行上市以来,B股市场为内地企业筹集外资的功能已经大大弱化,无论市场总体规模,还是单个股票流通规模,均不能与红筹股、H股相比.1998年之后,B股市场的发展脚步就骤然减速,2000年后就彻底停顿了下来.迄今为止,B股市场一直停留在2000年的规模上.     

开放B股市场的冷思考

目前中国证监会决定：允许境内合法持有外汇的投资者（自然人）投资B股市场，这将给一直受制度、交易环境制约而极为低迷的B股市场带来重大转机，沪深B股3月26、27日两天内的新开户数超过34万户，而此前十年内全国B股总开户数只有28万多户，出现了两天大于十年的新奇景观。复牌后两市B股连续5天全面涨停，亦可见投资者的高涨热情，由于B股市场的开放可以看作中国证券市场开放的前奏，所以对吸引外资、增加投资渠道和品种、提高投资者技术水平和投资理念、提高金融监管水平等方面都会产生积极影响。但是由于相关配套措施的不完善，B股市场的开放也带来许多棘手问题，需要慎重对待。     

A股报表与B股报表差异的分析

在上海证券交易所挂牌上市并同时发行A股股票和B股股票的企业，根据国家有关规定，在披露其定期财务报告时，除应按《股份有限公司会计制度》和《企业会计准则》编制A股报表供我国境内投资者阅读，并作为股份公司的法定会计报表外，还应同时披露依据国际会计准则编制的B股会计报表供境外投资者阅读，按不同的会计准则编制的两份报表之间存在差异时，还应披露差异的项目和产生差异的原因，以备投资者充分，全面地了解企业真实的财务信息，由于两种会计制度，会计政策，会计准则的种种差异，导致A，B股会计报表在资产，负债，股东权益，收入，费用，利润等方面存在差异，这些差异有的仅影响资产，负债的分类，有的则通过影响公司的净利润，影响到公司的净资产，对投资者而言，更应关注的是影响净资产的那些差异。     

债券市场与股票市场的动态相关性研究

本文使用非对称动态条件相关系数(ADCC)模型,研究债券市场与股票市场的相关系数随时间变化的情况。发现由于经济运行情况和宏观政策等外部的不确定因素的影响,两个市场的相关关系存在结构性变化,同时两个市场对冲击的反应程度也不尽相同。本文还揭示出对股市-债市联动来说,其相关系数受到联合负冲击的影响要大于联合正冲击的影响;而对股市-股市联动来说,联合正冲击的影响要大于联合负冲击的影响。本研究对投资组合的构建、金融市场监管和风险控制有重要价值。     

The cross-sectional relationship between stock returns and domestic and global factors in the Chinese A-share market

By using an extension of the Fama and MacBeth cross-sectional regression model, this analysis examines the relationship between stock returns and (i) a local beta, (ii) two global betas, and (iii) some firm-specific characteristics in the Chinese A-share market. The results of the analysis suggest that neither the conditional local beta nor the global betas has a significant relationship with stock returns in A-shares. Our findings indicate that firm factors, such as the book-to-market ratio and firm size, are important in explaining stock returns. However, the size effect is sensitive to the specification of the model. Finally, the results of sub-period tests indicate that the A-share market did not become increasingly integrated with either the world stock markets or the Hong Kong stock market over the period 1995–2002.

Stock Market Volatility and Economic Factors

This paper examines the ability of rational economic factors to explain stock market volatility. A simple model of the economy under uncertainty identifies four determinants of stock market volatility: uncertainty about the price level, the riskless rate of interest, the risk premium on equity and the ratio of expected profits to expected revenues. In initial tests these variables have significant explanatory power and account for over 50 per cent of the variation in market volatility from 1929 to 1989. When the regression coefficients are allowed to vary over time using cluster regression, the four factors explain over 90 per cent of the variation in market volatility. The results are useful in explaining the past behavior of stock market volatility and in forecasting future volatility.     

The Other January Effect: international evidence

This paper investigates the predictive power of stock market returns in January for the subsequent 11 months’ returns across 19 countries, thereby contributing to the literature on stock market seasonalities. Only 2 out of 19 countries’ stock markets exhibit a robust Other January Effect. In the light of this evidence, we conclude that the Other January Effect is not an international phenomenon.     

Exploiting International Stock Market Correlations with Open-end International Mutual Funds

Investors can exploit the correlations between international stock markets by trading no-load, open-end, international mutual funds. These investors in effect cheat passive investors because they buy the mutual funds at their net asset values, which do not reflect information released during the US trading day. The strategy we examine yields an annual rate of return 800 basis points above the S&P500, over a period of almost eight years.     

Investigating volatility spillover of energy commodities in the context of the Chinese and European stock markets

This paper investigates spillover from energy commodities to Shanghai stock exchange and European Stock market, and identifies possible risks transmission and portfolio diversification opportunities. The study is conducted on daily spot prices of carbon (CO2) emission, natural gas and crude oil from 16 December 2010 to 29 December 2022, employing Granger causality test, dynamic conditional correlation (DCC), Diebold-Yilmaz (2012) and Barunik-Krehlic (2017) models. Results identify higher volatility and imply greater connectedness in the longer run. Additionally, natural gas is witnessed as the highest contributor of the shocks and crude oil as the highest receiver of the shocks from the network connection. Further results suggest for investment in energy commodities in shorter run rather than long run for efficient portfolio diversification. Results from this study are expected to have practical implications for portfolio managers, investors, and market regulators, given the suggestion of this study to incorporate energy stocks for efficient diversification of risk.     

Does the Euro affect the dynamic interactions of stock markets in Europe? Evidence from France,Germany and Italy

The dynamic links between stock market indices are analyzed in a GARCH-M framework, using daily data from France, Germany, Italy and the USA. It is shown that indices in the periods before and after the introduction of the Euro as a single currency display a very distinct behaviour. Consistent with the literature, in the earlier period price changes are found to have an impact the next day on other markets. In the latter period this type of co-movement disappeared within Europe. Feedback trading has been shown to induce (negative) autocorrelation in national stock markets. In this paper an international version of the feedback trading model is used to illustrate that the lead–lag relationships across countries and the strength of these links depend on the currency regime.     

The empirical relationship between risk and return: evidence from the UK stock market

Previous studies reach no consensus on the relationship between risk and return using data from one market. We argue that the world market factor should not be ignored in assessing the risk-return relationship in a partially integrated market. Applying a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in mean (GARCH-M) model to the weekly stock index returns from the UK and the world market, we document a significant positive relationship between stock returns and the variance of returns in the UK stock market after controlling for the covariance of the UK and the world market return. In contrast, conventional univariate GARCH-M models typically fail to detect this relationship. Nonnested hypothesis tests supplemented with other commonly used model selection criteria unambiguously demonstrate that our bivariate GARCH-M model is more likely to be the true model for UK stock market returns than univariate GARCH-M models. Our results have implications for empirical assessments of the risk-return relationship, expected return estimation, and international diversification.     

内在投资价值理论在中国股市的有效性检验

用F-O模型对深发展1991～2010年的内在价值进行测算,然后实证分析股价和内在价值之间的协整关系,发现在过去的20年中,两变量间并不存在协整关系。这说明中国股市是无效市场。通过计算泡沫值发现,20世纪90年代,深发展的泡沫值非常高,进入21世纪后泡沫值逐渐降低,反映出中国股市逐渐走向价值回归之路。     

中国股市波动率的双重不对称性及其解释——基于MS-TGARCH模型的MCMC估计和分析

本文应用MCMC方法估计了上证综指的MS-TGARCH模型,并得出中国股市的波动率存在双重不对称性。其一,每个波动状态中,中国股市的波动率都存在不对称性,其中高波动状态的波动率对好消息的反应显著大于坏消息,而低波动状态则刚好相反;其二,不同状态之间,中国股市波动率的不对称性刚好相反,并且高波动状态伴随着显著大于0的平均收益率。最后,本文从投资者心理、行为以及中国经济大环境等角度进行了解释。