中国鳗鱼产业发展困局及纾困对策

鳗鱼产业是中国重要的养殖、出口产业,2009年以来受种苗不足影响陷入产业下滑与民生不稳的困境。当前,中国养鳗业因鳗苗缺乏,陷入"无苗可养"的困境。随着鳗苗价格走高,生产成本和市场风险不断上升。而鳗鱼资源保护管理难度大,鳗鱼种苗人工繁育研究严重滞后进一步制约鳗鱼产业发展。应对不利局面,中国应加强鳗苗资源保护与管理、加快开发新的鳗苗资源、继续支持鳗鱼新品种养殖及繁殖技术研究、积极推动鳗鱼研究国际合作。     

鳗鱼输日受制约

日本不断提高对进口鳗鱼产品的检验检疫指标,导致我鳗鱼产品出口日本频频受阻。从2003年“恩诺沙星”事件到2005年“孔雀石绿”事件,再到2006年的“肯定列表制度”,在刚刚过去的2007年日本媒体的恶意炒作极大地影响了我鳗鱼在日销售,国内的鳗业经历了多次产业低谷。单一的出口格局是制约鳗业发展的一大问题,实现销售渠道的多元化才是当前鳗业受制于人的有效破解之道。     

鳗业:突破壁垒必须三方合力

我国是世界上主要的产鳗国,仅2000-2001年度我国大陆生产的鳗鱼就达16多万吨,其中,九成以上出口日本。但作为产鳗大国,近几年我国鳗鱼的出口状况却屡遭挫折。最近一次是2003年7月,日本突然宣布以查出“恩诺沙星”残留超标为由,对我国出口日本的鳗鱼施行了极为严厉的“命令检查”政策,致使鳗价从最高峰时的每吨6万多元急跌至每吨仅3万元左右,这一事件给我国的鳗业发展造成了巨大冲击。突破鳗业技术性贸易壁垒,必须政府、行业、企业三方合力,解决当前我国鳗业发展存在着一系列问题。     

市场短波

行家认为今年鳗鱼价将继续走低据福建省有关部门分析,今年鳗鱼价将继续走低。目前,世界鳗鱼主产区东亚地区的鳗鱼放养工作已基本结束。由于今年鳗苗丰收,各地投苗十分充裕,日本、台湾、韩国、中国等东亚国家和地区,鳗苗总投放量急剧增加,达到破历史纪录的３２０吨。预计今年成鳗产量可超过１８万吨,加上去年烤鳗压库较多,将对我国养鳗业及鳗鱼销售市场产生重大影响。由于各地养鳗增加而供过于求,鳗鱼价格将不可避免地继续下跌。据悉,１９９８年日本进口烤鳗每公斤平均价为１６１８日元,已比正常年份价格下跌了三成,而今年１月价…     

“绿色壁垒”困扰顺德鳗业

<正> 近日从顺德水产商会获悉,前段时间受“恩诺沙星”影响而停止出口日本的中国烤鳗上月顺德率先恢复出口。 今年6月,日本从中国进口的烤鳗中检查出“恩诺沙星”药物残留,对中国内地生产的烤鳗实施“命令检查”。为防止事态扩大,国家食品安全局在7月底暂停烤鳗出口。虽然鳗鱼出口已经恢复,但顺德鳗业近两年来接连     

东亚鳗鱼新一轮销售竞争将更加激烈

<正> 据有关信息资料显示,世界鳗鱼主要产地东亚地区的鳗苗放养,今年由于鳗苗丰收而使各地投苗十分充裕,其中在日本入池的本地苗(即日本鳗苗)约33吨,欧洲鳗苗突破100吨,放养已呈饱和状态;在台湾地区入池鳗苗估计在35吨以上;韩国入池鳗苗5吨,本地苗和进口苗各占一半。我国大陆仅上半年进口鳗苗投入就达141.17吨,其中欧洲鳗苗107.78吨,日本鳗苗30.52吨,美洲鳗苗2.8吨以上。     

日本对中国产鳗鱼检查再添“门坎”

自上月起,日本农林水产省强化针对中国产养殖鳗鱼加工品的检查命令体制,将检查个体数量由一个增加到2个。此前的检查个体数量一直为1个。但在此项检查命令中经查合格的中国产烤鳗却在此后进行了都道府县的验收检查,被检测出有抗生物质,日本农林水产省认为中国产鳗鱼加工品中分散着存在残留合成抗菌剂情况,决定进一步强化检查体制。因此,再次给我国鳗业生产、鳗鱼养殖用药安全管理和全面实现无公害鳗鱼养殖等方面提出了更高要求。日本对中国产鳗鱼检查再添“门坎”@兰永清!354000$福建省邵武市畜牧水产局     

鳗鱼销售转向国内

<正> 受亚洲金融危机的影响,完全依赖日本市场的我国鳗鱼业受到严重冲击。近来,我国加工鳗鱼的厂家在开拓欧洲市场的同时,把眼光瞄准了国内市场。 据全国鳗业联合会介绍,我国烤鳗加工主要面向日本,1998年加工烤鳗出口4.8万吨,占日本市场的91％。鳗鱼成为我国单项农产品出口创汇最多的品种。     

鳗鱼饲料产业所面临的问题及其对策

中国大陆鳗鱼饲料产业是在２０世纪８０年代伴随着鳗鱼养殖业的快速增长而发展起来的,至今已有十多年历史。鳗鱼饲料产业从最初引进设备、配方和技术人员进行合资生产,到如今生产设备的不断国产化,新配方的不断开发,使得产品质量大幅度提高。目前,鳗鱼饲料的年产量３０多万ｔ,已能达到鳗鱼业发展的需要。就目前的鳗鱼饲料加工水平而言,许多知名品牌的饲料效率已超过进口饲料。但随着鳗鱼养殖出口由供不应求向供过于求的转变,养殖户普遍亏损后,鳗鱼饲料产业,也面临许多新问题。１．政策的不连贯性由于鱼粉进口增值税保证金的征收,…     

我国鳗鱼产业要立足国内市场

<正> 最近一个时期,有关鳗鱼行情的报道都乐观地认为,今年下半年或明年上半年,鳗鱼价格将逐步回升,我国鳗鱼产业也将步出低谷,春天又将来临了。然而,从日本鳗输入组合在月初召开的2000年夏季总结全上获悉,2001年度日本将减少鳗鱼的进口量。其中还增加从台湾的进口,这表明质量虽然居优但价格较高,我国鳗鱼出口仍将面临巨大的压力。     

中国木材产品贸易及其对林业的影响

以木材产品贸易对林业的影响为核心,对木材产品的进口和出口情况进行详细的统计分析,并运用弹性理论分析林业产值对木材产品进口和出口的敏感度,以此来初步证明木材产品贸易对林业的影响。研究表明,原木、锯材、刨花板、木家具、纸和纸制品的进口敏感度均高于木材总产品的进口敏感度1.382,尤其以刨花板和木家具的敏感度最大,为136.018,说明这些产品的进口额变化对林业产值变化的影响非常显著,进口额增加1%,将使林业产值成倍地增长。     

Challenges of trade and agricultural development for East/Central Europe and states of the former USSR

The agricultural transition in Central and Eastern Europe and the former USSR reflects a fundamental change in development strategy, and will have a profound impact on agricultural trade. The greatest impact will be indirect, through agriculture's contribution to general economic reform and acceleration of regional and global growth. The direct impact on trade in food and fiber will in aggregate consist of a fall in net imports. Most of the decline in net imports will derive from reduction in demand and improved utilization. Potential for productivity increase is substantial, but not all of the increased productivity will be reflected in the traditional supply response of increased production. Instead marginal resources will shift out of farming, and producers will restructure and adopt new technologies in pursuit of lower costs. Shifts in the commodity composition of trade will occur, and the changes in grain and livestock markets will be greatest. If the reform is successful, the former Soviet Union could become a modest net grain exporter instead of a large importer. Wheat would be the leading export grain, and levels of wheat exports and corn imports could become quite sensitive to relative prices on world markets.     

Future developments in global livestock and grains markets: the impacts of livestock productivity convergence in Asia-Pacific

Increasing livestock product consumption in many Asian countries has been accompanied by growth in some countries' imports of feedgrains for their domestic livestock sectors. This contributes to debate over future levels of grain imports. Yet projections often pay little attention to developments in livestock production. The impacts of technological catch-up in livestock production on trade in livestock and grains products among countries in the Asia-Pacific region are assessed. Tests are conducted of the hypothesis that productivity levels in the Asia-Pacific region are converging. Projections of livestock productivity are made and incorporated in a modified GTAP model. The consequences for regional and global trade in livestock and grains products are explored.     

How sensitive is U.S. agricultural trade to the bilateral exchange rate? Evidence from bulk,intermediate, and consumer‐oriented products

This article examines the dynamic effects of changes in bilateral exchange rates on changes in bilateral trade of bulk, intermediate, and consumer‐oriented agricultural products between the United States and its 10 major trading partners. We find that, for consumer‐oriented products, U.S. exports are highly sensitive to bilateral exchange rates in both the short and long run, while U.S. imports are mostly responsive only in the short run. For bulk products, on the other hand, U.S. exports and imports are relatively insensitive to exchange rate changes in both the short and long run. For intermediate products, exports and imports are responsive to exchange rate changes in the short run, but not in the long run. It is also found that income of the United States and its trading partners has a significant effect on U.S. exports and imports of the three types of agricultural products in both the short and long run.     

“一带一路”背景下的中国大米外交策略

[目的]农业外交是一种古老的外交形式,也是一项崭新的研究议题。大米外交是农业外交的重要内容,"一带一路"建设为中国开展与沿线国家大米外交提供了新契机。研究大米外交的实施路径,有助于提高中国大米国际竞争力。[方法]研究以如何开展大米外交为研究对象,分析了中国开展大米外交面临的机遇及相应实施路径。[结果]中国实施"大米外交"战略面临重要机遇,如粮食外交已成为世界各国外交战略的重要形态。中国杂交水稻技术国际领先优势明显,大米是"一带一路"沿线部分国家的重要贸易产品,中国水稻生产可持续发展环境亟需改善。针对不同国家及地区具体情况,通过大米贸易、技术合作、农业投资、粮食援助等多种形式,积极实施差别化的"大米外交"战略。如对东南亚、南亚主要是增加大米进口和技术交流,对中亚、俄罗斯主要是增加农地投资和劳务输出,对东非、北非主要是增加大米援助和技术输出,对东亚、中东欧主要是增加粳米出口和技术引进等路径。[结论]文章提出了加强金融支持、创新合作模式、把握进口时机和增加种子出口等推进中国"大米外交"的政策建议。     

The Doha Round of the World Trade Organization and Agricultural Markets Liberalization: Impacts on Developing Economies

We investigate the impacts of multilateral removal of all border taxes and farm programs and their distortions on developing economies, using a world agriculture partial equilibrium model. We quantify changes in prices, trade flows, and production locations. Border measures and farm programs both affect world trade, but trade barriers have the largest impact. Following removal, trade expansion is substantial for most commodities, especially dairy, meats, and vegetable oils. Net agricultural and food exporters emerge with expanded exports; net importing countries with limited distortions before liberalization are penalized by higher world prices and reduced imports. We draw implications for current World Trade Organization negotiations.     

China and Taiwan access to the World Trade Organization: implications for U.S. agriculture and trade

This paper investigates the impact of China's and Taiwan's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on U.S. and world agricultural trade by means of a 12-region, 14-sector Computable General Equilibrium model for world trade and production. The simulation results show that integrating China and Taiwan into the global trading system could induce more competition on labor-intensive Products and reduce their prices. It could drive up the demand for capital and skill-intensive manufactured goods, thus further improving industrial countries' terms of trade. The expansion of labor-intensive sectors in China could also induce contraction in agricultural exports from China and increase its net agricultural imports by as much as US$9 billion annually, causing food and agricultural exports from other regions to increase. Total U.S. food and agricultural exports could increase by about US$2.4 billion annually, with the non-grain crop sectors gaining the most. The biggest winner from China's WTO accession is China itself. WTO membership could bring a net welfare gain of about US$30 billion a year for China, a substantial benefit compared with the gains for the USA (US$8.5 billion).     

How can trade partners be chosen when facing food scandals? China's milk scandal as a natural experiment

Using China's milk scandal as a natural experiment, this paper explores whether the countries of origin and export destinations have the same responses to the original country's food scandal. Our difference-in-difference estimation shows that the outbreak of China's milk scandal had asymmetric impacts on China's total imports (increased by 23.4%) and exports (sharply dropped by 65.8%). The results further show that China's milk scandal contributed to import increases from European and Oceanian countries. Moreover, China's milk scandal worsened exports, mainly those going to neighbouring Asian regions but increased exports to Oceania. A product quality index is constructed to explain this finding. Intuitively, consumers' perceived quality of Chinese products declined, and they tended to consume products from other countries. The lower the product quality was with those in China, the lower the perceived quality and safety, thereby affecting demand. During the scandal, Chinese consumers tended to buy high-quality dairy products from Europe and Oceania rather than the perceived unreliable dairy products produced by China or neighbouring countries. We conclude that product quality plays a key role in imports and exports when facing food scandals.     

Trade and agricultural development in the 1980s and the challenges for the 1990s: Asia

Asian developing countries have had varying experiences in trade and agricultural development in the 1980s, attributable in part to their differing stages of economic development and structural characteristics. Other important influences relate to the external economic environment and the policy choices made by their governments not only during the period but also in the preceding decade. The achievements of Asian developing countries under the adverse external conditions of the 1980s are discussed in terms of their macrocconomic and agricultural growth, the commodity structure of agricultural growth, their food production and trade, the expansion and diversification of their agricultural exports, and the policy and nonpolicy factors affecting them. Special attention is given to the role of policy reforms implemented in China and the South Asian countries, following similar policy developments in Northeast and Southeast Asia in the 1960s and 1970s, toward greater openness in their trade regime and increased private-sector participation in the economy. These reforms have contributed to the observed acceleration in gup , agricultural, and export growth in the 1980s. However, macroeconomic imbalances have emerged that threaten the sustainability of economic liberalization in those countries. The major challenges for the 1990s also differ among the Asian developing countries. In the industrially advanced Northeast economies of Taiwan and South Korea, the primary need is to ease the transition of the remaining rural population as farm incomes continue to fall and workers move to industrial and service activities. This challenge has to be addressed in the context of growing external pressure to further open their domestic market for agricultural imports. Among the Southeast and South Asian countries, there is a need to reduce the existing policy biases against agriculture, particularly against export crop production. Moreover, China and the South Asian countries face the additional challenges of continuing to deregulate their trade regime and internal markets, and of promoting macroeconomic stability. Despite the external trend recently toward regionalism, Asian developing countries generally seem committed to an open trading system, on which in fact their past impressive economic performance has been predicated. An important challenge for them in the 1990s is to play an active role in arresting and reversing any protectionist tendencies arising from the formation of regional trading blocs and to support multilateral initiatives such as the Uruguay Round that promote global trade liberalization.     

Reconstructing production efficiency,land use and trade for livestock systems in historical perspective. The case of France, 1961–2010

This paper provides an original accounting of changes in livestock production efficiency per livestock category in historical perspective and connects livestock consumption with land requirements and virtual land trade. We use France as a demonstration study and account for productivity changes in terms of energy. Feed rations composition are reconstructed per livestock production and feed crop group over time to account for changes in land use in relation to dietary changes. Land requirements for consumption in France dropped by 28% over the study period besides an increase by 35% of the human population and by 53% of the livestock consumption. The two-fold increase in agricultural productivity is due, for half, to energy conversion efficiency improvements and for half to agricultural yields. Overall, the livestock energy conversion efficiency increased by 45% from 1961 to 2010, poultry gained 84%, pork 17%, sheep&goat 67% and cattle 27%. The feed share of oilcrops and cereals in animal rations doubled against a drop by 35% of feed from pastures. Virtual land imports for oilcrops in relation to livestock consumption in France today amount to 0.9 million ha against a maximum of 1.9 million ha in 1979. Besides its dependence on oilcrops imports, the French livestock sector displays net virtual land exports ranging from about 2.5–5.3 million ha per year over the study period. Gross virtual land trade is today five times higher than the net virtual trade. The difference highlights the share of circular product loops in increasingly integrated agricultural markets at the international scale.