玉米价格决定着肉食价格

由于美国中西部地区的洪涝灾害天气对玉米的播种面积和单产造成影响,芝加哥商品交易所的玉米期货连创新高,并带领大豆、小麦等品种集体上涨。在能源价格高位盘整之际,玉米的领涨使得振荡两个多月的农产品期货再度成为市场关注焦点。由于美国产区天气糟糕、美国玉米库存降至历史低     

美国玉米向工业原料转变

2006年8月,美国和中国的玉米都获得了丰收。在丰收的压力之下,美国芝加哥商品交易所玉米期货从7月开始一路下跌,到8月中旬跌至230美分以下,两个月急速缩水50美分。一时间,市场风声鹤唳,评论席上鸦雀无声,部分基金恐慌性出逃,市场充满“恐怖”气氛。然而,当大部分人都认定玉米上     

金融期货之父:中国定会再为世界创造新奇迹

利奥·梅拉梅德(Leo Melamed),芝加哥商品交易所终身荣誉董事长、高级政策顾问。1972年,在时任芝加哥商品交易所主席的梅拉梅德主导下,芝加哥商品交易所推出世界上第一张金融期货合约,梅拉梅德因此被誉为全球"金融期货之父"。     

股指期货的推出对股票市场的影响探析

股指期货是以股票价格指数为标的物的期货合约，是上世纪80年代初期出现的一项重大金融创新。在短短20多年的发展历程当中，股指期货显现出极大的活力，已经成为全球金融市场中的亮丽风景。根据美国期货行业协会的统计数据显示，2006年，全球股指期货期权成交高达45亿张，与2000年相比，6年增加了近6倍，成为全球交易最活跃的金融期货品种，其交易量占金融期货总成交量的41％。截至2006年末，全球已经有约50余个国家和地区上市交易股指期货产品，股指期货合约数达170余个。除中国大陆外，世界GDP排名前20的国家和地区都已经推出了股指期货，近年来表现突出的“金砖四国”（巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国），也只有我国大陆尚未推出股指期货。     

“玉米期货”千呼万唤始出来

玉米是我国最重要的粮食品种之一，占我国粮食产量的1／3，生产、消费区域分布广泛，年产量和年消费量均在1．2亿吨左右，仅次于美国，位居世界第二位。此外由于玉米产业的链条很长，目前国内约80％以上的玉米是用于饲料、味精、酒精、淀粉等的加工及制药中。由此可见，玉米在国民经济发展中占有举足轻重的地位。因而玉米期货的推出，也必将给我国玉米现货市场带来重大影响。     

股指期货浮出“水面”

在深圳第二届中国国际期货大会上，中国证监会主席助理兼期货部主任姜洋表示。2007年初将推出首个金融期货品种——股指期货。目前，已有4家基金公司向证监会提交关于股指期货的研究报告。12月中下旬。证监会将召集部分基金公司再次会商，届时就基金公司投资股指期货，将会拿出意见稿。。。一00已经推出近两个月的沪深300股指期货仿真交易，其中一些特点令习惯国际成熟市场的投资者不知所措。这些所谓的“中国特性”是否合理？股指期货真实交易推出后，这些特点还会存在吗？[编者按]     

赵广钰：恢复国债期货恰逢其时

有着长期实战经验的北京期货商会副会长、格林期货总经理赵广钰认为．目前在北京恢复发展国债等金融期货的条件已经基本成熟。在采访中．赵广钰谈到：自从中国第一个金融期货品种——国债期货因著名的国债327事件而被尘封以及1996年开始利率市场化的进程以来，利率波动日益频繁．债券市场的“投资者面临着巨大的利率风险。何时能回复发展国债期货引起了投资界的极大关注。[编者按]     

对我国期货品种创新的研究

期货市场是风险管理行业，而期货品种是进行风险管理的载体。随着经济全球化步伐的加快，我国资本市场和商品市场面临的风险有加大的趋势。这就迫切要求我国发展风险管理市场和风险管理行业，而期货市场应义不容辞地承担起这一责任。期货市场要充分发挥规避风险、套期保值的功能，就必须依赖于市场中的期货品种不断的创新和发展。根据国外学者研究．期货品种创新的关键在于期货品种本身的设计、期货合约的设计以及期货市场制度等因素。     

国债期货箭在弦上

沪深300股指期货成功上市之后,金融期货逐渐升温,推出以国债期货为代表的利率期货成为中国金融交易所（中金所）的工作重点。2012年2月13日,中金所正式启动了国债期货仿真交易。时隔17年,如今重启国债期货已经不仅仅是增加一个交易品种那么简单,     

玉米期货复出就在今年

中国证监会主席助理汪建熙表示，今年玉米、棉花等新品种有望上市。中国证监会将主要采取两方面措施推动中国期货市场的发展：首先是期货新品种在酝酿之中。另外，中国证监会还将推动成立品种上市审核委员会，为石油产品、金融产品期货等新产品的推出提供制度保障。     

Pump Prices and Oil Prices: A Tale of Two Directions

It has been argued that retail gasoline prices adjust more quickly to crude oil price increases than to price decreases. We investigate this issue using the statewide data on weekly retail gasoline prices in the United States between January 2000 and June 2007. Our analysis does not confirm the prediction that gasoline prices adjust more quickly to price increases in crude oil prices. On the contrary, the results suggest that in some geographic areas gasoline prices could change faster when crude oil prices decrease. These findings suggest that a national or a one size fits all energy policy for the United States may be misguided.

Prices and industrial transformation

Abstract

One of the contradictions of neo-classical economic theory concerns its view of relative prices. On the one hand it is relative prices that determine the market's equilibrium position and decide what transactions will take place. On the other hand, the pattern of relative prices, or expressed differently the price structure, has been regarded as more or less immutable. Variations in relative prices have been considered short-term phenomena, after which, in time, an adaptation has taken place which has restored the initial situation. The same line of thought was also held by Wesley Mitchell, who in the dispersion of relative prices found a reflection of business cycles, but he maintained that the price system is “yet stable in the essential balance of its interrelations”.¹ F.C. Mills cited Mitchell as his authority in his comprehensive work The Behavior of Prices, and although he felt compelled to raise objections to the inference that relative prices varied rhythmically with the business cycle, he still considered that there was a limit to change in relative prices, i.e. the price structure had a fundamental stability.²     

房价盛世危言

搜索中国所有的商品与要素市场,几乎没有哪一个市场能像房地产市场那样残酷而贪婪地吞噬着百姓手中可怜的剩余资本,而在政府企图规制与诱导的目标市场中,更没有哪一个市场能像房地产市场那样令决策层感到心力憔悴.在一轮又一轮房价涨停行情的肉博之中,完全丧失话语权和谈判能力的消费者经历了一次又一次的利益流失的痛苦折磨,而宏观调控工具与手段也随之可能被历练得更加刚毅与成熟.     

Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: The Increasing Role of Energy Prices

Open Economies Review - A number of researchers have found that the rate of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to domestic prices has declined substantially over the last few decades. We revisit...     

Why Do Large Firms' Prices Anticipate Earnings Earlier than Small Firms' Prices?*

This paper presents evidence that the positive association between firm size and price leads of earnings is not solely a function of private search incentives for firm‐specific information. Specifically, we find that small‐firm prices also lag large‐firm prices with respect to industry‐wide information. Our empirical analysis extends Collins, Kothari, and Rayburn 1987 and Freeman 1987, who document that security‐price leads of earnings are positively associated with market capitalization. In particular, we examine the association between firm size and the timing of security returns for two components of annual earnings changes: the average change for a firm's industry and the firm's idiosyncratic change. We find that large firms' prices have a longer lead than small firms' prices with respect to both components. Large firms' early lead on industry‐wide earnings suggests that returns of large firms predict returns of same‐industry small firms. To test this implication, we construct a portfolio of long (short) positions in small firms when the prior month's returns of large firms in their industry are above (below) average for large firms in other industries. This zero investment portfolio earns 4.5 percent over 12 months.     

也说消费价格指数与房价

有分析人士认为，目前居民消费价格指数CPI的上涨幅度被低估，其原因是未将商品住宅价格指数纳入统计范围。本文认为，根据国际惯例编制的CPI已考虑了居民的居住消费，不将商品住宅价格指数纳入，是因其具有投资性质和金融资产性质；也可避免CPI因商品住宅价格的波动而出现的大幅波动，有利于客观分析和判断宏观经济的主要指标。     

股票价格波动问题探究

股票市场是国民经济的晴雨表,股票价格波动是股票市场的基本特征之一,它受到多种因素的影响。股票价格波动合理直接关系到我国社会主义市场经济的正常发展。文章基于对股票价格的研究,主要介绍了影响股票价格波动的多种因素、股票价格的波动机理和股票价格的运动模型。     

Responding to High Commodity Prices

The recent commodity price boom resulted from rising demand in the face of a long period of low supply growth and market distortions. Structural factors are expected to return international commodity prices to relatively high levels as the global economy recovers. The Asian and Pacific economies and the region's poor will be among the most exposed to a rebound in prices. The recent response to high commodity prices can be improved upon. At the global level, the priority for Asian and Pacific governments is to seek a commitment to lessening distortions favouring bio-fuels. At the regional level, there is a need to address the use of trade restrictions on food commodities in Asia, notably rice. At a national level, the long-term neglect of the rural economy warrants correction; and efforts to expand and make social safety nets more 'market friendly' are called for.