Toward a Model of the Office Building Sector

High rise office buildings represent large capital outlays in very competitive markets. Investment and development decisions require careful market analysis to assure sufficient demand to lease the office space at rental rates which will make the venture financially attractive. Present methodology for analyzing future commercial real estate market conditions can at best be said to be inadequate. This methodology relies on concepts such as "market absorption" rates and "normal" vacancy rates. These concepts usually rely on accounting type and trend line techniques to provide forecasts of space demand. In this paper we provide an alternative methodology for forecasting the key variables in the office space market by developing a statistical model of supply and demand. The key variables that need to be forecasted are the stock of office space (in square feet), the flow of new office construction (in square feet), the vacancy rate (in percent), and the rent for office space (net rent per square foot).     

Vacancy Rates and the Future of Office Rents

This research confirms the existence of a strong vacancy rental adjustment mechanism in the market for office space, such as has been found in housing markets. Using national time-series data, we find that real office rents drop approximately 2% annually, for every percentage point of "excess vacancy" in the market. We also find that the definition of "excess vacancy" has been trending upward over time. Using a recent vacancy forecast suggests that office income streams seem likely to decline in both real and nominal dollars over the next few years.     

Heterogeneous Investor Sentiment and Institutional Real Estate Investments

Commercial real estate investors differ in their sentiment due to factors such as market expertise, investment strategies and expectations about future market conditions. Focusing on the office market, we investigate whether investors with a multiasset investment focus such as pension funds or insurance companies rely on the sentiment of specialized real estate investors such as public REITs or private developers/owners as source of information in their investment decision‐making. Using disaggregated sentiment measures and vector autoregression (VAR) we find evidence that changes in REIT and private real estate investor sentiment lead to changes in institutional investor sentiment in the suburban office and office REIT market. Our findings suggest that institutional investors rely on the sentiment of specialized real estate investors to make real estate investment decisions. Our study contributes to the existing literature on sentiment in commercial real estate markets by emphasizing the heterogeneity of investor sentiment and introducing a disaggregated sentiment measure. We also contribute to the institutional herding literature.     

Explaining Location Patterns of Suburban Offices

Suburban office markets exhibit a pattern of variegated clustering that is little explained by the conventional theories of urban form based on agglomeration effects and the cost of distance. To explain the pattern, this paper introduces industry economies of scale for "Class A" offices. Empirical tests for industry economies of scale are reported, based on data from the office market of Houston, Texas. The models presented, under conditions typical of North American cities in recent decades, imply the patterns of variegated clustering that are observed. They suggest a sequence of clusters, increasing in size and distance from the central business district. Further, they imply the potential for mass movement by tenants from older clusters to new.     

Chicago's Office Market: Price Indices, Location and Time

Conventional wisdom holds that overbuilding and high vacancy, coupled with curtailed tax benefits, have led to reduced office property values since the late 1980s. Yet assertions that office real estate values fell between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s are not supported everywhere by convincing evidence. This study offers a hedonic analysis of Chicago area office properties that sold from 1986 through 1993. Whereas earlier office market studies generally have been based on rents, this study focuses on variation in actual sale prices (although the prices were not adjusted for financing differences). The transaction-based index estimated here does not support the existence of a nominal office property price level decline beginning in the mid-to-late 1980s. In fact, the results show an upward trend in office property values after 1986, with nominal declines in office market price levels occurring only in the latter portion of the study period.     

Rental Price Adjustment and Investment in the Office Market

This study presents estimates of the rental price adjustment mechanism and investment response in the office construction market using data from fourteen cities over the period 1979–1983. Market rents are seen to adjust in response to local as well as national economic conditions. Investment, as measured by building permits, responds strongly to rent in a two-stage regression model, as well as to the long-term growth rate of office employment. Tests for a cobweb-type overreaction by investors do not reveal any cyclical characteristics of the market, indicating that the effects of random demand shocks are not felt beyond the normal construction period.     

Did Office Market Size Matter in the 1980s? A Time-Series Cross-Sectional Analysis of Metropolitan Area Office Markets

Recent contributions to the literature have resulted in a standard modelling of office markets. The models provide considerable insight into the working of office markets. • Nonetheless, a major difficulty is the use of data for a single city or aggregate data for the U.S. The latter implicitly assumes that model structure is invariant across cities. In this article we test for structural differences in office markets by size class. Rental data from REIS Reports for twenty-one metropolitan areas for the time period 1981 to 1990 are used to model office market behavior. Results suggest market outcomes vary by city size, larger markets are better modelled using standard procedures, and Manhattan behaves quite differently from the other markets.     

Profitability of Office Rental Market in Seoul: An Application of Simultaneous Structural Equations

This article is concerned with the estimation of excess rates of return on the office rental market in Seoul using a simultaneous structural equation model. The office rental market in Seoul is spatially divided into CBD and non-CBD, and the model has three behavior equations of Chonsei price, monthly rent and key deposit, with two identity equations of conversion rate and excess rate of return. This article reveals that it would be rational for the owners to ask tenants for a higher deposit with a lower monthly rent under increasing interest rates because the interest rate has a positive effect on the Chonsei deposit and the key deposit, but a negative effect on the monthly rent. Although high nominal interest rate and low economic growth reduce the excess rate of return on both submarkets, the non-CBD office rental market would be more profitable than the CBD market despite lower levels of the monthly rent and key deposit.     

Intrametropolitan Location and Office Market Dynamics

Theory and evidence point to interdependency between office location decisions and dynamic growth paths. For example, clerical and administrative support employees are suburbanizing relatively rapidly in most markets in response to changes in technology and transportation. This paper tests the hypothesis that both cross-sectional and dynamic variables are important determinants of dynamic patterns and office market forecasts.
County Business Patterns data at the county and town levels indicate substantial spatial specialization (i.e., agglomeration) by type of office activity. But these agglomerations do shift over time, as indicated by the maintained hypothesis. Our econometric estimates suggest that the demand for office space in submarkets is responsive to agglomerations by type of industry as well as to growth in FIRE employment. The supply of office space is responsive to lagged expected demand.     

Determinants of Location for General Purpose Office Firms within Medium Size Cities*

This study examines determinants of the downtown/non-downtown location choice for general purpose rental office users. It presents a model of location choice which accounts for linkages, personnel commuting costs and location of market centroid. It fits the model to survey data on office space usage, distinguishing between market oriented and non-market oriented firms. The study finds that market oriented firms are primarily sensitive to market location, while non-market oriented firms are more sensitive to linkages and personnel commuting costs. It also finds that linkages play a limited role in the location decisions even for non-market oriented offices because, in the medium size cities studied, few firms are linkage intensive.     

How “Local” are Local Office Markets?

This paper describes empirical investigations of the geographical extent of office markets in the United States during the 1980s. A mixed temporal autoregressive model was estimated for pooled downtown office markets and pooled suburban markets. Results indicate that while the temporal autoregressive effect is stronger for office market vacancies than is the effect of the national trend, their linkages to national trends are significant. However, a mixed spatial autoregression analysis of the data pooled over time indicates that the regional office vacancy effect is stronger than the national office vacancy effect in both downtown and suburban office markets.     

The Effect of Clustering on Office Rents: Evidence from the Amsterdam Market

This article examines the rent effects of office clustering in the Amsterdam office market for the period 2000–2005. We isolate the rent effects of location density based on geographic information system (GIS) methodology, while controlling for variations in object characteristics in a cross-sectional hedonic model. While controlling for the age, location and quality of the object, we find a strong positive effect of being located in dense office areas. We find that the vicinity of other office objects is priced into rent levels, regardless of market conditions. This article extends existing literature by examining the influence of clustering outside the United States, during changing economic tides and by application of novel methodology, based on objective clustering schemes, which can be replicated for other geographic areas.     

The Workings of the London Office Market

This paper presents estimates of an equilibrium-based dynamic adjustment model of the office market, using supply and demand relationships to link construction, absorption, vacancies and rents to employment growth and real interest rates. The model is estimated using data from the City of London office market over 1977–1996. The model tracks the market dynamically, and the severe 1985–1996 cycle is shown to be related to the cycle in employment growth and the movement of real interest rates. The latter directly affects both construction and real rent levels.     

Office Rent in the Chicago CBD

This study focuses on the Chicago CBD office market, an important market at the local, regional, national and international levels. The purpose of this study is to develop a hedonic regression model that explains the variation in office rent per square foot. Five functional forms (linear, reciprocal, logarithmic, semi-log and log-linear) of the model are considered. A generally log-linear model is determined to be the best model based on a series of Box-Cox/Box-Tidwell type transformations and likelihood ratio tests. The regression results reveal that the model has very high explanatory power. The methodology of this study differs substantially from that of previous studies on this topic. Perhaps most importantly, the unit of analysis is the office unit rather than the building. This choice suggested the use of specific lease terms for actual transactions and location of the unit within the building as new variables. Finally, the modeling of location of the building within the CBD was found to be a critical step.     

PRICES AND ENDOGENOUS MARKET STRUCTURE IN OFFICE SUPPLY SUPERSTORES*

We consider the relationship between prices and market structure for office supply superstores in the U.S. which was central to the Federal Trade Commission's opposition to the merger of Staples and Office Depot. Due to potential biases in a standard regression, we employ a two‐stage approach in which a model of endogenous market structure provides correction terms for a second stage price regression. Using a cross‐section of data on market structures and Staples' prices, we find that excluding the correction term substantially distorts the importance of competitors as the two‐stage model yields stronger negative relationships between prices and market structure variables.     

On the Value of Environmental Certification in the Commercial Real Estate Market

A significant part of the global carbon externality stems from the real estate sector. Environmental certification is often hailed as an effective means to resolve the information asymmetry that may prevent markets from effectively pricing the energy performance of buildings. This study analyzes the adoption and financial outcomes of environmentally certified commercial real estate over time. We document that nearly 40% of space in the 30 largest U.S. commercial real estate markets holds some kind of environmental certification in 2014, as compared to less than 5% in 2005. Tracking the rental growth of 26,212 office buildings, we measure the performance of environmentally certified real estate over time. We document that certified office buildings, on average, have slightly higher rental, occupancy and pricing levels, but do not outperform non‐certified buildings in rental growth over the 2004–2013 period. Further performance attribution analysis indicates that local climate conditions, local energy prices and the extent of certification lead to significant heterogeneity in market pricing. On aggregate, these findings provide some evidence on the efficiency of the market in the adoption and capitalization of environmental characteristics in the commercial real estate market.     

Office Building Investment and the Macroeconomy: Empirical Evidence, 1973–1985

Given the recent concern about overbuilding in the office sector, this paper considers the influence that macroeconomic factors have upon office construction. Because office construction is volatile and because the "time to build" problem requires construction to change with a lag, the paper employs a different methodology, vector autoregressions, to model the office building sector. The findings indicate that anticipated output has a large and direct effect. This effect depends on the predictive content of nominal interest rates, suggesting that the declines in nominal rates over the past five years explains the recent overbuilding.     

Examining a key corporate role: The influence of capital allocation competency on business unit performance

Research on the role of the corporate office in firm performance has focused on establishing how much performance variance can be attributed to a “corporate effect,” with little attention devoted to understanding how this influence occurs. In this study, we model capital allocation competency as a dynamic managerial capability and find that lower levels of allocation competency in the form of excess investment to business units with relatively poorer future prospects reduce business unit performance. We also find that market conditions affect performance implications of capital allocation—allocation competency is more salient in more competitive markets. These results enhance our understanding of how the corporate office influences business unit performance through its role in allocating capital across business units. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evolving electronic mail in a PTT

The convergence and expansion of products and services has critical implications for the strategic planning of PTTs, challenging traditional PTT monopoly supply arrangements. Viewing electronic mail as the keystone for office automation, John Morris provides an illustration of how, in the UK, the reshaping of British Telecom will enable the PTT to play an effective role in realizing the market potential of new information services.     

National Vacancy Rates and the Persistence of Shocks in U.S. Office Markets

In this paper, we develop and estimate a model that decomposes the variance in office vacancy rates into market-specific, time-specific, and random components. The results indicate significant differences in natural vacancy rates across markets. We also find some persistence in deviations from these natural vacancy rates. The analysis is applied to both central business district (CBD) and suburban office markets. We find that natural vacancy rates differ across CBD markets and across suburban markets. Further, the persistence of disequilibrium in one CBD market seems to differ significantly from that in another. This is not shown to be true for suburban markets.