经济周期、通货紧缩与信用萎缩北大核心

本文从经济周期角度入手进行分析 ,发现了我国经济中通货紧缩、经济周期、复杂结构性矛盾以及信用萎缩之间高度的逻辑一致性现象 ,并在以下几方面突出了自己的看法 :( 1 )提出新的周期划分方法 ,进而判断我国总体的通货紧缩大致发生在朱格拉周期的尾声 ;( 2 )论证了我国经济中决定经济周期的结构性矛盾的多层次传递特征 ,为寻找可行的经济运行轨迹提供了相应对策思路 ;( 3)分析了因金融体制改革滞后所引致的信用萎缩及其长短期效应以及培育和发展民营中小金融机构的必然性。     

中国通货膨胀与通货紧缩的目标区间

针对通货膨胀与通货紫缩周期性交替的现实，本文认为客观存在通胀与通缩的目标区间，在此区间中的通胀率是良性的。据此，文章重新定义了通货膨胀与通货紧缩，估算了中国通胀与通缩的目标区间，并认为可以用此区间作为宏现货币政策的中介目标，建议采用微调作为主要的宏现调控方式。     

经济周期波动中的房地产抵押贷款风险分析

房地产抵押贷款风险是一种特殊的金融风险，将其放在宏观经济周期性波动的过程或大背景下进行研究，并且注意考察房地产贷款风险在这种过程中的变化情况，以便更好地对其进行管理和防范。     

中国经济周期嬗变与货币政策选择

中国经济在2009年一季度触底后快速回升,进入复苏阶段,新一轮经济周期随之展开。与危机应对时期相比,经济中的两难问题增多,政策操作的复杂性增加,研究现阶段的货币政策选择具有特别的紧迫性和现实意义。本文试从经济周期的趋势性特征出发,研究经济复苏阶段的宏观调控和货币政策选择。对当前一轮经     

宏观经济波动的实体性成因——真实经济周期(RBC)理论评析

真实经济周期理论属于西方经济学中的经济自由流派。它突破了货币周期理论,把来自供给方面的技术冲击等意外真实冲击看作是经济波动的根源;认为经济波动不是对长期经济增长趋势的偏离,否定把宏观经济分为长期和短期的观点;坚持货币中性主张;反对政府的干预政策。它以正统的微观经济理论来说明宏观经济波动,改变了人们对经济周期性波动原因的理解,超越了货币主义和新古典宏观经济学,是20世纪80年代以来自由主义经济学的重大发展。     

价格波动对货币供求的反作用：对当前通货紧缩问题的再认识

商品的价格以价值为基础,货币供求影响或决定着价格水平及其波动,但同时,价格波动对货币供求关系也具有反作用。因此,在调整价格,尤其是治理通货紧缩或通货膨胀时,也应该关注价格变动对货币供求的影响,并正确利用此作用机理适当调整宏观经济政策,使政策作用与价格动行机制有机搭配,以收到事半功倍的效果。     

经济周期波动与保险业的可持续性发展

经济发展总是处于周期性波动的过程中,保险业的发展也随着经济周期波动而起伏。经济繁荣的时候大量资本涌入保险市场,衰退时一部分保险公司又纷纷倒闭。世界经济在2000年达到繁荣高潮后,2001年开始衰退,以“9.11”恐怖主义袭击事件为导火索迅速转入萧条。“9.11”事件使世界保险业遭受重创,2001年后世界经济形势发生的     

通货紧缩压力与当前货币政策选择问题研究

近年来随着经济和物价指标的下滑,我国面临的通缩压力及其政策应对等问题受到持续关注。本文在回顾历史经验和梳理前期文献的基础上,对通过货币扩张治理通缩的效率问题进行了理论分析,并利用2005年1月—2014年12月的宏观经济数据构建MS-FAVAR模型用以研究了不同经济区制下物价与主要宏观变量之间的动态关系。研究结果表明,货币政策效率的非对称性在我国非常明显,受信贷顺周期和财政扩张挤出等因素的影响,如果在紧缩条件下轻易选择激进政策加速货币扩张,对治理通缩和拉动经济的效果可能并不理想。本文建议,当前应继续保持货币供给平稳增长并调整信贷结构,同时根据国外经济情况的变化,利用各项改革制度的实施在需求端寻找缓解通缩压力的机会。     

中国经济从通货紧缩到通货膨胀

1998到2002年间,中国经历了通货紧缩,零售物价指数R PI在1998年下降了2郾28%,1999年则下降了3%,而2000年则下降了1郾5%,2001年下降了0郾8%,最后2002年下降了1郾8%。我认为这是典型的通货紧缩现象。到了2003年,中国似乎走出了通货紧缩,因为2003年R PI下降了0郾1%,即基本上没有通     

Flexible Prices and the Business Cycle

Business cycles models with flexible prices face two major empirical challenges. One regards observed output dynamics: the positive, short run, autocorrelation in GNP growth, and the hump‐shaped, trend‐reverting output response to transitory shocks ( Cogley and Nason 1995 ). The other regards the alleged persistent decline in employment following a positive technology shock ( Galí 1999 ). No determinate model with flexible prices has so far been able to address all of the Cogley Nason–Galí challenges. We show that the standard RBC model can do so if it contains a signal extraction problem involving permanent and temporary supply shocks.     

Stock Returns and the Business Cycle

This article examines whether movements in economic factors dictated by the dividend discount model can explain broad movements in stock returns over the business cycle. As anticipated, stock returns decrease throughout economic expansions and become negative during the first half of recessions. Returns are largest during the second half of recessions, suggesting an important role for expected earnings. These results are consistent with the notion that expected stock returns vary inversely with economic conditions, yet suggest that realized returns are especially poor indicators of expected returns prior to turning points in the business cycle.     

Business Cycle and Management Earnings Forecasts

This study examines the effects of the economic cycle on the properties of management earnings forecasts. Although a large volume of accounting literature examines the determinants of managerial earnings forecasts, the properties of such forecasts, and the response of market participants to earnings forecasts (Cameron 1986; King et al., 1990; Hirst et al., 2008), research on management earnings forecasting incentivized by macro‐economic factors has received scant empirical investigation. We use the National Bureau of Economic Research economic cycle definition to operationalize economic recession, and consider some commonly used management earnings forecast characteristics, including forecast likelihood, forecast frequency, forecast error, forecast pessimism, and forecast precision. We find that the likelihood of providing management earnings forecasts and frequency of forecasts increases during economic recession. We also find that economic recession is positively associated with forecast error, but negatively associated with forecast precision. Our findings suggest macro‐economic factors as an important determinant of management earnings forecasts properties.     

经济周期与银行业资产质量

国际经验显示,商业银行资产质量呈现周期性波动,并且与宏观经济周期有较强反向相关性。信贷规模顺周期扩张行为,后景气时期企业偿债能力与负债成本错位,也对银行资产质量造成压力。资产价格自高位快速回落往往成为资产质量恶化的导火索,房地产市场泡沫破裂是其中典型情形,波及面最为广泛,影响最为深远。影响银行业资产质量的宏观要素经济增长与资产不良率逆相关。经济周期与银行业资产质量的相关度较高,经济环境变化是决定客户违约率的最重要变量。理论研究与实践均证明:在经济高涨期,企业经营良好,利润水平较高,同时贷款抵押品价值也较高,银行贷款的资产质量     

International Business Cycle and Financial Intermediation

The paper extends a standard two‐country international real business cycle model to include financial intermediation by banks of loans and government bonds. The paper contributes an explanation for both the United States relative to the Euro‐area, and the United States relative to China, of cross‐country correlations of loan rates, deposit rates, and the loan premia. It shows a type of financial retrenchment for the United States relative to both Europe and China following a negative bank productivity shock, such as during the 2008 crisis. After 2008, results suggest that the Euro‐area has been more financially integrated with the United States, and China less financially integrated.     

从全球通胀到美国金融危机--本轮世界经济周期的发展逻辑及中国对策北大核心

在本轮全球物价上涨以及随后爆发的美国金融危机中,货币过度供应起到了决定性的作用,华尔街的问题只是浅层次的技术层面原因,更重要的是国际货币体系存在问题,对美元供给没有约束。美国金融危机不可避免将对全球包括中国产生重要负面影响,但是中国经济仍然具有持续发展的内在有利因素,而且本次危机也给中国提供了促进消费、参与国际货币体系改革的历史性机遇。中国在积极应对金融危机带来的严峻就业问题的同时,也应抓住机遇,主动调整国内经济结构,争取在改革国际经济秩序中发挥更大的话语权。     

金融周期、行业技术周期与经济结构优化

本文首先采用马尔科夫区制转移模型测算金融周期和12类行业的技术投入周期,进而采用交叉谱分析法和OLS法分析金融周期对行业技术周期的影响,结果发现:不同金融变量的周期具有异步性,各行业的技术投入周期具有明显差别;不同金融变量周期与行业技术投入周期之间存在不同的数量关联性,对不同的行业技术投入具有不同的影响作用;在繁荣阶段,金融市场和银行对各行业的技术投入都具有正向推动作用,但金融市场对高密度创新行业技术投入的推动作用更为显著,银行对低密度稳定行业技术投入的推动作用更为显著;在紧缩阶段,金融市场对高密度创新行业技术投入的紧缩效应更为剧烈,银行却对低密度稳定行业的技术投资下行起到缓解作用。根据这些事实和规律,可以引导利用各金融变量对具有发展前景的行业强化技术投资助推作用,提升经济结构优化效率。     

中国股票市场的发展及波动周期分析

中国股票市场自1991年正式运行以来,经历了一个飞速发展的过程,不仅上市公司和投资者数量剧增,而且股票成交金额及筹资规模也在剧增。但是作为一个新兴的股票市场,波动性与不稳定性是其基本特征。本文通过分析中国股票市场的发展现状和股市波动的特点,根据中国股市18年的发展历程及波动特点,将其划分为8个波动周期,并研究了每个周期的基本特征及概况,简要分析了影响股市波动的因素,并指出对股市波动周期划分的意义。     

Stock Market Liquidity and the Business Cycle

In the recent financial crisis we saw liquidity in the stock market drying up as a precursor to the crisis in the real economy. We show that such effects are not new; in fact, we find a strong relation between stock market liquidity and the business cycle. We also show that investors' portfolio compositions change with the business cycle and that investor participation is related to market liquidity. This suggests that systematic liquidity variation is related to a “flight to quality” during economic downturns. Overall, our results provide a new explanation for the observed commonality in liquidity.     

Job Duration over the Business Cycle

Evidence from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) suggests that the cyclicality of job duration depends on the worker's prior and future employment status. For example, among matches formed with previously nonemployed workers, those that end with the worker returning to nonemployment display procyclical duration. In contrast, matches that end because the worker switches to another job have countercyclical duration. Moreover, differences in starting wages do not account for these patterns.