困境下的多重博弈:战后上海卷烟业的发展与制约(1945~1949)

<正>与国民党的"黄金十年"相比,1945~1949年的中国是民国史研究当中的薄弱环节。目前学界对于卷烟行业史的研究,主要集中于20世纪初至三十年代,对战后部分的研究显然十分薄弱,甚至可以说是一大空白。上海是近代中国卷烟工业的发源地,是民国卷烟工业的中心和企业的聚集地。基于此,笔者选择战后上海的卷烟业为研究对象,从新的角度出发探讨战后特殊的经济社会环境下的行业发展及其制约因素,以充实卷烟行业史及战后中国社会经济史的研究。论文创新之处主要有:     

打叶复烤企业生产管理问题分析

复烤企业在行业"大市场、大企业、大品牌"发展战略中承担着"卷烟上水平","原料保障上水平"的双重任务,而成本控制、烟叶储存和用工管理等作为复烤企业生产管理中较为突出的问题,严重制约着其双重任务的完成。分析复烤企业生产管理中这些较为突出的问题,并且提出了相应措施。     

打叶复烤企业生产管理问题分析

复烤企业在行业"大市场、大企业、大品牌"发展战略中承担着"卷烟上水平","原料保障上水平"的双重任务,而成本控制、烟叶储存和用工管理等作为复烤企业生产管理中较为突出的问题,严重制约着其双重任务的完成。分析复烤企业生产管理中这些较为突出的问题,并且提出了相应措施。     

现代企业营销体系框架——以卷烟企业为例

现代卷烟营销体系的构建以消费者价值判断为出发点,以保证卷烟产品的持续溢价能力为核心任务和目标,重点从产品设计、团队建设、客户关系、销售政策、市场策略和品牌策划等六个方面进行全面建设.本文紧密结合“大营销”工作实施方案,在营销理论观点的指导下,针对工业企业的发展情况,构建了行业现代卷烟营销体系,为工业企业更好地应对行业快速发展提供了新思路.     

浅谈卷烟零售特色终端的构建和应用

伴随宏观经济新常态、消费升级和"两禁"政策,行业"四大难题"加快向下传导,计划与市场矛盾日益突出,卷烟营销正面临着多重矛盾和多重压力叠加的严峻形势。为突破卷烟发展的瓶颈,实现持续稳定发展,安庆市局(公司)面向消费者市场探索了卷烟零售特色终端建设的构建和应用,不断挖掘和释放消费市场的卷烟消费红利。     

关于辽宁卷烟工业发展的思考

1994年初,国家烟草专卖局提出了到本世纪末,把我国现有的180家烟厂调整压缩到100家以内的目标。即通过市场竞争和经济手段,达到调整行业企业结构,增加经济效益的目的。一年多来,国家局不断重申实现这一目标的决心。可以预测,在未来的五年中,我国的卷烟市场竞争将会更加激烈。优胜劣汰是事物发展的必然规律。面对这种形势,我省卷烟工业如何生存、发展,是摆在全省行业职工面前十分重要的课题。笔者认为:国家局的这一举措,既给我省卷烟工业带来了巨大的压力,但同时也带来了机遇和希望。     

卷烟企业的柔性化生产初探

随着人们的经济收入增加和消费水平的提高,政府控烟政策的不断出台,使得卷烟市场发生了根本的变化:卷烟销量呈下降趋势,行业内部竞争加剧,消费者对卷烟的需求呈现多样化、个性化,新产品的密集推出。在当前市场环境下,以往的大批量预生产组织方式已被迎合市场动态变化的柔性生产组织方式所代替。本文分析柔性生产如何解决卷烟生产企业当前存在的困扰,以探索我们卷烟生产企业推行柔性生产之路。     

烟草行业移动信息化

按照国家局"卷烟上水平,对标升位次"战略要求,行业信息化建设一直作为改革创新的先导和排头兵,起到了重要的支撑作用。信息化技术自20世纪90年代以来一直飞速发展,引领了社会、经济的重大变革,被誉为第三次工业革命的关键技术。如何利用飞速发展的信息技术带动行业改进提升,顺利实现"卷烟上水平,对标升位次"的战略,是每个烟草信息化工作者值得思考的问题。     

浅议卷烟生产企业员工激励机制的改进方向

企业的竞争,从根本上讲是人的竞争,取决于人的积极性和潜能的发挥。卷烟生产企业作为卷烟产品的制造者,处于烟草产业链条的中心位置,是整个行业的至关重要的一环。在卷烟生产企业内部,如何对员工进行激励,会直接影响员工的积极性、主动性和创造性,进而对企业效率、发展状态与核心竞争力产生深刻的影响。所以,激励机制的持续改进,对卷烟生产企业的健康发展显得尤为重要;而其改进方向,则是引领企业人力资源管理改革的指挥棒。     

烟草行业移动信息化

按照国家局"卷烟上水平,对标升位次"战略要求,行业信息化建设一直作为改革创新的先导和排头兵,起到了重要的支撑作用。信息化技术自20世纪90年代以来一直飞速发展,引领了社会、经济的重大变革,被誉为第三次工业革命的关键技术。如何利用飞速发展的信息技术带动行业改进提升,顺利实现"卷烟上水平,对标升位次"的战略,是每个烟草信息化工作者值得思考的问题。     

Smoking Status and Public Responses to Ambiguous Scientific Risk Evidence

Situations in which individuals receive information seldom involve scientific consensus over the level of the risk. When scientific experts disagree, people may process the information in an unpredictable manner. The original data presented here for environmental risk judgments indicate a tendency to place disproportionate weight on the high risk assessment, irrespective of its source, particularly when the experts disagree. Cigarette smokers differ in their risk information processing from nonsmokers in that they place less weight on the high risk judgment when there is a divergence in expert opinion. Consequently, they are more likely to simply average competing risk assessments.     

Social reformers and regulation: the prohibition of cigarettes in the United States and Canada

Anti-smoking legislation in North America reached its peak early in the last century. In 1903, the Canadian Parliament passed a resolution to prohibit the manufacture, importation, and sale of cigarettes. Fifteen states in the United States banned the sale of cigarettes and 37 states considered prohibitory legislation. In both the United States and Canada, prohibition was part of the Progressive Movement. Cigarette prohibition was special interest regulation, but it was also the means by which crusaders sought to alter public behavior. In the United States, the cigarette lobby opposed cigarette prohibition while in Canada the French-Canadians offered the most vociferous opposition. An active Progressive Movement was the necessary condition for generating interest in prohibition, while the anti-prohibition forces played a significant role later in the legislative process.     

Response by Adults to Increases in Cigarette Prices by Sociodemographic Characteristics

Cigarette excise taxes are widely viewed by health economists as an effective tool to reduce cigarette consumption. However, those opposed to increasing cigarette excise taxes often state that the taxes unfairly target certain segments of the population, notably the poor and minorities. Some of this opposition may have been fueled by a lack of understanding of how the tax will affect the health and welfare of various demographic groups of interest. This article provides guidance to policy makers by estimating price elasticities among adults by gender, income, age, and race or ethnicity. Women, adults with income at or below the median income, young adults, African-Americans, and Hispanics are most responsive to cigarette price increases. For example, adults with income at or below the median are more than four times as price-responsive as those with income above the median.     

Publications

Nugroho, Indonesia: Facts and Figures, Djakarta, 1967. Pp. xxxiv + 608, Rp. 1,100.

J.A.C. Mackie, Problems of the Indonesian Inflation. Monograph Series, Modern Indonesia Project, South East Asia Program, Department of Asian Studies, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, 1967. Pp. v + 101, $2.00.

Lance Castles, Religion, Politics and Economic Behavior in Java: The Kudus Cigarette Industry. Cultural Report Series No.15, Southeast Asia Studies, Yale University, 1967. Pp. vii + 158.

Pengumuman Sub Dewan Moneter: Beberapa Statistik Terpenting (Publications of the Sub Monetary Board: Some Important itatistics), Djakarta, monthly from January 1967.     

Reviews

Books reviewed in this article: GREAT BRITAIN C. Phythian -Adams . Desolation of a City: Coventry and the Urban Crisis of the Late Middle Ages. Felicity Heal . Of Prelates and Princes. A Study of the Economic and Social Position of the Tudor Episcopate. David Cressy . Literacy and the Social Order. Reading and Writing in Tudor and Stuart England. Frances J. Shaw . The Northern and Western Islands of Scotland: Their Economy and Society in the Seventeenth Century. Arthur H. John and Glanmor Williams (Eds.). Glamorgan County History. Vol. V. Industrial Glamorgan from 1700 to 1970. David Cannadine . Lords and Landlords: The Aristocracy and the Towns, 1774–1967. Susanna Wade Martins . A Great Estate at Work: The Holkham Estate and its Inhabitants in the Nineteenth Century. George J. Barnsby . Social Conditions in the Black Country, 1800–1900. Norman Mc Cord . Strikes. C. G. Powell . An Economic History of the British Building Industry, 1815–1979. T. R. Gourvish . Railways and the British Economy, 1830–1914. F. C. Mather (Ed.). Chartism and Society. An Anthology of Documents. P. L. Cottrell . Industrial Finance, 1830–1914. The Finance and Organization of English Manufacturing Industry. Ian Levitt and Christopher Smout . The State of the Scottish Working Class in 1843: A Statistical and Spatial Enquiry Based on the Data from the Poor Law Commission Report of 1844. Angela V. John . By the Sweat of their Brow: Women Workers at Victorian Coal Mines. Charles More . Skill and the English Working Class, 1870–1914. A. E. Dingle . The Campaign for Prohibition in Victorian England: The United Kingdom Alliance, 1872–1895. G. R. Hawke . Economics for Historians. Raphael Samuel (Ed.). People's History and Socialist Theory. Bari ?A Kreki ?. Dubrovnik, Italy and the Balkans in the late Middle Ages. Myron P. Gutmann . War and Rural Life in the Early Modern Low Countries Juan Sanz Sampelayo . Granada en el Siglo XVIII. Pierre Caspard . La Fabrique-Neuve de Cortaillod: entreprise et profit pendant la Revolution industrielle, 1752–1854. J. M. Diefendorf . Businessmen and Politics in the Rhineland, 1789–1834. Christof Dipper . Die Bauernbefreiung in Deutschland, 1790–1850. David Alexander and Rosemary Ommer (Eds.). Volumes Not Values: Canadian Sailing Ships and World Trade. Marco Palacios . Coffee in Colombia, 1850–1970: An Economic, Social and Political History. Sherman Cochran . Big Business in China: Sino-Foreign Rivalry in the Cigarette Industry, 1890–1930. Michael Stephen Smith . Tariff Reform in France, 1860–1900. The Politics of Economic Interest. A. D. Chandler , Jr . and H. Daems (Eds.). Managerial Hierarchies: Comparative Perspectives on the Rise of the Modern Industrial Enterprise. Carl -Ludwig Holtfrerich . Die deutsche Inflation, 1914–1923: Ursachen und Folgen in internationaler Perspektive. Rajat K. Ray . Industrialization in India: Growth and Conflict in the Private Corporate Sector, 1914–47.     

习惯形成对我国城镇居民消费的动态影响机制研究

习惯形成是居民消费行为的变化依据之一,影响着其演变和发展的规律,现有研究普遍认为,该特征导致我国城镇居民消费愈加谨慎,但追根溯源,习惯形成究竟对居民消费具有怎样的内在影响机制,这是文章探究的主要问题。以改进的Dynan模型为基础,充分考虑居民消费习惯形成的产生机制,嵌入状态空间模型（State Space）构建动态消费函数,采用29个省1978-2016年的城镇面板数据,在测算习惯形成、边际消费倾向的时变参数的基础上,运用面板VAR和脉冲响应函数的动态分析发现：面对不确定冲击,居民消费的习惯形成强度随之增大,促使居民降低消费倾向,并在不确定影响弱化后,抑制消费倾向的回升,在两者的相互制约中,消费倾向最终缓慢回升至某一较低的水平,因此习惯形成减慢了居民消费的变化速度,抑制了消费倾向的提高。这启示我们,改革开放以来,来自供给侧的多次不确定冲击,导致了城镇居民消费较大的习惯形成强度,是其消费倾向持续降低的一个重要因素。为有效提高居民的消费倾向,弱化习惯形成的强度和影响至关重要,为此应构建长效机制,努力降低不确定冲击的广度和深度。文章的研究进一步认清了消费习惯形成的性质,厘清了居民消费变化的动态性和长期性,对提高政策建议的针对性、有效性具有理论和现实的意义。     

互联网对农村居民的幸福效应研究

当前,互联网是不可阻挡的"时代洪流",正在潜移默化地影响着农村居民的行为观念与生活方式。在此背景下,文章基于中国社会状况综合调查2015年度数据,系统评估了互联网技能给农村居民带来的幸福效应。研究表明：掌握互联网技能会显著提升农村居民的幸福感,其感到"非常幸福"的概率显著高出2.6%。考虑到掌握互联网技能很可能是农村居民"自我选择"的结果,结合倾向得分匹配法和内生转换模型构造反事实框架纠正选择性偏误,结论依然成立。影响机制的分析结果显示,互联网技能会通过丰富休闲娱乐活动提升农村居民的幸福感。     

社会地位、在职消费与激励绩效

对企业高管进行有效激励，降低企业的激励成本，有利于企业的平稳运行和经济的繁荣发展。文章以2003-2014年所有A股上市公司为样本，对在职消费通过彰显"地位"、"威望"等而对企业高管产生的激励作用进行检验。研究发现，"地位"、"威望"等精神层面的非物质因素对企业高管具有激励作用，并在激励效果上对货币薪酬具有替代作用：国有企业中，在职消费更可能作为货币薪酬的替代性补偿而产生激励作用；民营企业中，在职消费更可能发挥精神层面的激励替代作用。而在货币薪酬等物质激励得到相对满足的情况下，考虑了"地位"、"威望"等精神因素的激励契约具有更高的激励相容性，能够有效地为企业节约激励成本，提高内部资源配置效率，进而提升股东价值。     

我国电子商务发展现状、问题与对策研究

近年来,电子商务发展已成为不可抗拒的世界历史发展趋势。本文在分析了电子商务发展现状、趋势、分析、问题的基础上,又重点从打造良好的发展环境、加强对数据的开发和利用、整合产业链,构建电子商务综合生态体系和电子商务与ERP、CRM的融合等几个方面,提出了对电子商务发展的对策建议。     

福建农村人力资本水平与农民收入

采用国家统计局福建农村住户调查数据,实证分析了农户家庭人力资本水平与家庭收入之间的关系,结果表明:户主的文化程度越高,农户家庭的总收入越高,家庭收入中来自稳定的收入越多,收入来源越多样化,家庭的生活水平越稳定。随着家庭平均教育水平的提高,农户家庭的收入也不断提高,教育投资的收入弹性呈递增趋势,随着时间的推进,教育对收入的效应逐渐加大。从培训来看,接受培训的农户家庭,其收入明显高于未接受者培训的家庭的人均纯收入,而且随着家庭劳动力接受培训次数的增加,家庭收入也不断增加。