全面建设小康社会的能源安全研究

根据我国经济发展时能源高度依赖的现状,分析了我国能源以煤为主的供需总体形势,针对能源行业存在的石油安全、电网发展、能源运输、环境影响、经济粗放型增长等问题,提出了我国能源安全战略。     

新形势下我国能源安全分析及路径选择

能源是推动我国经济社会发展的重要物质基础,保障能源安全已经成为我国能源安全战略的重要组成部分。从能源供给安全、能源运输安全、能源价格安全、能源消费的环境安全以及能源能效与清洁能源等5个层面研究我国能源安全的现状。研究发现:我国能源安全度较低,能源安全面临着巨大风险。我国需要积极制定措施保障能源安全,即需要积极制定未来能源安全保障战略,提高能源利用效率,积极开发新能源,积极主动开展能源国际合作。     

What did unions do for union workers during the COVID-19 pandemic?

This research examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on labour market outcomes of union workers, based on nationally representative data. I employ the difference-in-difference estimation to identify the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the employment, labour earnings and other labour market outcomes of union workers, relative to non-union workers. I find that, compared to non-union workers, union workers experienced greater job security, and the pre-pandemic union wage premium remained largely unchanged during the pandemic. There exists a large heterogeneity in the union effect on employment and real wages by worker characteristic. I also find that union workers, compared to non-union workers, were less likely to work remotely but more likely to receive pay for hours not worked due to COVID-19. The results suggest that unions provided workers with employment stability and an economic buffer during the pandemic-led recession.     

中国石油进口安全浅析

伴随中国国民经济的持续快速增长，中国石油消费在未来十几年内将会急剧增加，由此引发的石油进口也势必会进一步扩大。石油进口突然中断或积聚减少必将危及我们的经济和社会生活，进而诱发一系列的政治问题。因此，石油进口安全已成为一个关系到石油安全、经济安全及政治安全的战略性问题。文章在对石油进口安全的内涵及中国石油进口现状进行分析的基础上，指出了中国石油进口中存在的一些安全问题。     

中国煤炭消费的绿色革命

推进我国煤炭消费的绿色革命,是当前我国能源革命和生态文明建设的重中之重。从当前我国能源、经济、环境可持续发展的现状和关键问题出发,明确论述了煤炭消费绿色革命的战略意义和关键目标,并基于一般均衡和技术优化等模型和情景分析方法,探索了实现煤炭消费革命的可行路径。研究结果有望对我国能源与环境领域的产业发展和政策支持起到基础性支撑作用。     

Workouts, Deep Pockets, and Fire Sales: An Analysis of Distressed Real Estate

This paper presents a conceptual analysis of issues that relate to the management of distressed real estate assets. The paper examines the decision implications of the major characteristics of real estate assets and real estate markets in the light of information and incentive problems that emerge when assets fail to perform as anticipated. The paper focuses on the determination of commitments of additional resources to a troubled property, the identification of efficient holders of distressed assets, and the consideration of policies toward the disposition of distressed assets. The paper concludes that in many instances asset sales, rather than causing further destabilization as suggested by the fire sale image, are likely to contribute to reducing the costs associated with distress.     

EXPLOITING UNCERTAINTY—INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AS REAL OPTIONS: A NEW WAY OF THINKING IN ENGINEERING ECONOMICS

A new trend in corporate planning is to exploit uncertainty by taking investment opportunities as real options. This options approach is to complement the conventional net present value (NPV) criterion in evaluating risky investments. In this paper, we take a broad look at the real options approach to various engineering economic decision problems, laying out how it provides an immediate and important perspective on value creation in an uncertain world. Unlike financial options, real options analysisdeals with investments in real assets, which is one of the primary interest areas in engineering economics. For that reason, we believe that any advancement in the real options decision framework will benefit the field of engineering economics.     

改扩建项目经济评价中若干问题

做好石油加工行业改扩建项目的经济评价工作,是经济评价人员工作的重点、在总结实际工作的基础上,就经济评价人员在实际工作过程中经常遇到的总量评价和增量评价、企业及项目范围的界定、“有项目”和“无项目”状态的界定和数据选择、效益、费用的识别及改扩建项目经济评价的简化处理等若干问题进行了探讨。     

Does food security matter for transition in Arab countries?

Expectations are high that transition in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen will bring about more freedom, justice, and economic opportunities. However, experiences from other world regions show that countries in transition are at high risk of entering conflicts, which often come at large economic, social and political costs. In order to identify options on how conflict may be prevented in Arab transition countries, this paper assesses the key global drivers of conflicts based on a dataset from 1960 to 2010 and improved cross-country regression techniques. Results show that unlike in other studies where per capita incomes, inequality, and poor governance, among other factors, emerge as the major determinants of conflict, food security at macro and household-levels emerges as the main cause of conflicts in the Arab World. The high exposure of Arab countries to global food price variations proves to be an important source of vulnerability for a peaceful Arab transition. If history is also a guide to the future, improving food security is not only important for improving the lives of rural and urban people; it is also likely to be the key for a peaceful transition. The paper concludes with a set of policy options on how to improve food security at macro and household-levels, including safeguard mechanisms against excessive price volatility, export-led and pro-poor growth, the creation/expansion of social safety nets and targeted nutrition programs.     

Global Financial Integration and Real Estate Security Returns

Have globalization and increasing economic and financial integration affected the rates of return of publicly traded real estate companies around the world? Using a set of multifactor models for annual data for 946 firms from 16 countries over the sample period, 1995–2002, we estimate the impact of a country's economic openness on returns of publicly traded real estate firms, controlling for the effects of global capital markets, domestic macroeconomic conditions and firm‐specific variables. We find that a country's real estate security excess (risk‐adjusted) returns are negatively related to its openness. The results are robust across different multifactor model specifications and are a testament to increasing global financial integration and its interplay with the real estate sector.     

浅议边境民族地区中小企业跨境实施“走出去”战略发展模式——以广西为例

边境民族地区中小企业的发展关系到边疆民族地区经济的发展,边境民族地区经济的发展进而关系到边疆的安全与稳定。文章基于广西中小企业的发展现状及特点以及广西中小企业跨境实施＂走出去＂战略所面临的困境,对广西中小企业跨境实施＂走出去＂战略的模式进行深入剖析,研究表明,＂市场细分模式＂和＂产业集群化模式＂是最佳的模式选择。     

Food policy reforms for sustainable agricultural development in Uzbekistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan

Given the present conditions of demographic growth and the complicated transition toward market economies in Central Asia, the problems of food security and designing policies to achieve it without compromising economic growth are at the forefront of policy agendas in these countries. This paper reviews food policy reforms in Uzbekistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan in the context of sustainable agricultural development. Analyzing the trends in the agricultural sector during the transition period, it identifies the major impacts of policy reforms on food security and enumerates future challenges for improving food security in these countries. It finds that despite the progress made in reforming their economies toward market-oriented ones, the three countries continue to face food insecurity to varying degrees. It concludes that there is an urgent need to further expand and deepen the reform process by enabling functioning land, labor, and financial markets.     

Migration and the overweight and underweight status of children in rural China

The rapid economic growth in China is accompanied by a large scale rural-to-urban migration, but over time more children are left behind rural areas. This paper studies how the overweight and underweight status of the rural children is associated with the out migration of others in their household. We find that migration is related to different nutritional outcomes for the left-behind children. The older children (aged 7–12) are more likely to be underweight; the younger (aged 2–6) are less likely to be overweight if left behind without the care of a grandparent. We also find evidence that the remaining adult household members spent less time preparing meals, whereas older children take up more household chores.     

Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE model

The paper aims at analysing the impact of the likely change in rainfall on food availability and access to food in Sudan. The empirical investigation is based on an integrated approach consisting of a stochastic method and CGE model. The former, related to the Monte Carlo analysis, provides the likely changes in rainfall patterns and their probability of occurrence based on historical data. These results are at the basis of the scenarios simulated in a standard CGE model augmented with a stochastic component. Achievements underline the negative impact on the two dimensions of food security taken into consideration, mainly due to a reduction in cereal supply, a marked cereal inflation pressure and income contraction; the greater negative effect on the poorest households; and a deterioration of the economic performance of the country. In this context, the paper stresses a strong interconnection among climate change and variability, poverty and food insecurity and thus the need for an integrated policy-making approach.     

金融生态演进作用于实体经济增长的机制分析——透过资本配置效率的视角

本文通过建立金融生态演进作用于实体经济增长的分析模型,对金融生态演进影响资本配置效率与经济增长的内在作用机制与传导渠道进行了数理分析。研究结果显示,金融发展对经济增长促进作用的有效性受其所在外部金融生态环境的影响。政府对经济的干预有助于增加资本积累,但会削弱法制因素和金融发展改善资本配置效率的作用;法制环境的改善有助于资金更多的流向集约型产业,减轻政府干预对资金配置的扭曲;一个企业家精神盛行、勇于创新的文化信用环境可以弥补法制环境的不足,约束资金使用者的道德风险,优化金融资源的配置效率。     

农民工职业选择行为分析——从职业性质与职业类型的角度

一般认为,如果农民工能够在城市获得一份长期合同或者能够从事社会、经济地位较高的工作。那么他们将更有可能融入城市。这有利于缩小地区和社会阶层的差距,构建和谐社会。基于CHIPS2007数据。应用多元logit回归模型从职业性质和职业类型的角度分析了农民工的内生约束（人力资本和社会资本）对其职业选择行为的影响。实证结论表明：受教育程度以及强社会关系对农民工获得长期合同以及技术管理类职位存在显著的正向影响。     

确定农村最低生活保障对象中的问题

确定农村最低生活保障对象是农村最低生活保障制度顺利实施的一个重要问题。目前在确定农村最低生活保障对象时，存在着三个问题，一是部分困难人口未能纳入最低生活保障范围，特别是大量无收入、生活困难的农村老人与儿童急需救助；二是农村经济发展的不平衡性，使部分经济发达地区的低保覆盖率要高于落后地区；三是在确定农村最低生活保障对象中，监督与回馈制度不健全。解决这三个问题，将有效地保障农民群众的基本生活权益，促进农村社会经济稳定协调发展。     

煤炭企业集团内部审计工作探索与实践

随着经济发展和经济环境的变化,企业的审计工作也应顺势而变。通过介绍国内一些煤炭企业集团内部审计的现状,分析了企业内部审计存在的问题,并就煤炭企业内部审计机构如何配备审计人员和审计工作如何开展展开论述。