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1.
Sergio L. Schmukler 《International Economics and Economic Policy》2006,3(3-4):409-414
This note evaluates the prospects for a world currency, using as a departure point the papers by Bordo and James (2006) and Cooper (2006). The note argues that a world currency is unlikely in the foreseeable future and probably undesirable. Although more evidence
is needed, there seem to be no strong forces towards the creation of new monetary unions among the countries with major currencies
or between those countries and the periphery. Based on recent experience, the note also argues that one of the main benefits
to establish a world currency, the elimination of exchange rate uncertainty, is likely less important than commonly believed.
No matter how rigid a currency arrangement is, initiatives to dissolve it tend to appear as bad times arise. Still, the present
equilibrium of no world currency leaves unresolved many difficult issues related to the functioning of the domestic and international
monetary systems.
Sergio L. Schmukler has prepared this note as a comment to the papers “Proposal for an OECD Currency” by Richard N. Cooper
and “One World Money, Then and Now” by Michael Bordo and Harold James, presented at the conference “Regional and International
Currency Arrangements,” February 24 and 25, 2006, Vienna, Austria, organized by the Bank of Greece and the Oesterreichische
Nationalbank (Central Bank of Austria). I thank conference participants for useful comments. I am also grateful to Jose Azar
and Francisco Ceballos for excellent research assistance. The views expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author
and do not necessarily represent the opinion of the World Bank. 相似文献
2.
Sebastian Edwards 《Open Economies Review》2011,22(4):533-563
In this paper I discuss some of the most important lessons on exchange-rate policies in emerging markets during the last 35 years.
The analysis is undertaken from the perspective of both the Latin American and East Asian nations. Some of the topics addressed
include: the relationship between exchange-rate regimes and growth, the costs of currency crises, the merits of “dollarization,”
the relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic stability, monetary independence under alternative exchange-rate
arrangements, and the effects of the recent global “currency wars” on exchange rates in commodity exporters. 相似文献
3.
This paper comprises a survey of a half century of research on international monetary aggregate data. We argue that since
monetary assets began yielding interest, the simple sum monetary aggregates have had no foundations in economic theory and
have sequentially produced one source of misunderstanding after another. The bad data produced by simple sum aggregation have
contaminated research in monetary economics, have resulted in needless “paradoxes,” and have produced decades of misunderstandings
in international monetary economics research and policy. While better data, based correctly on index number theory and aggregation
theory, now exist, the official central bank data most commonly used have not improved in most parts of the world. While aggregation
theoretic monetary aggregates exist for internal use at the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and many other central
banks throughout the world, the only central banks that currently make aggregation theoretic monetary aggregates available
to the public are the Bank of England and the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. No other area of economics has been so seriously
damaged by data unrelated to valid index number and aggregation theory. In this paper we chronologically review the past research
in this area and connect the data errors with the resulting policy and inference errors. Future research on monetary aggregation
and policy can most advantageously focus on extensions to exchange rate risk and its implications for multilateral aggregation
over monetary asset portfolios containing assets denominated in more than one currency. The relevant theory for multilateral
aggregation with exchange rate risk has been derived by Barnett (J Econom 136(2):457–482, 2007) and Barnett and Wu (Ann Finance 1:35–50, 2005).
相似文献
William A. BarnettEmail: |
4.
Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel 《International Economics and Economic Policy》2006,3(3-4):249-258
I discuss Sebastian Edwards’ most recent paper with great pleasure. As so much of the work of this distinguished economist, this paper provides new insights on a burning issue in international economics. Here Edwards provides empirical evidence on the resilience to external shocks of countries that lack a national currency (“monetary-union” or MU countries). The paper starts by reviewing the issues and literature relevant on exchange-rate regimes, dollarization, and MU in Latin America, with an emphasis on the question if countries in the region satisfy key optimal currency area criteria. Then the paper provides extensive new evidence on economic performance in MU countries, in comparison to countries with a national currency, using a large world panel sample. Performance tests are conducted for the comparative likelihood of MU countries of sudden stops in capital flows (SS) and large current (deficit) reversals (CAR), as well as their ability to absorb terms-of-trade shocks, SS, and CAR. The results are generally negative and significant for the comparative performance of MU countries. To set the stage, I start my comments by documenting first how country selection of exchange-rate and monetary regimes is quickly evolving in the world during the last decades, discussing subsequently how economists’ views follow suit (Section 1). Then I discuss some aspects of Edwards’ paper, focusing in particular on the data and model specification (Section 2). I end with brief implications for exchange-rate and monetary regime choice in Latin America. 相似文献
5.
Juha Tervala 《Open Economies Review》2010,21(5):629-654
This paper analyses the international transmission of monetary policy in the case where all export prices are set in US dollars.
“Dollar pricing” implies that the international effects of US monetary shocks are different from those of European shocks
because of an asymmetric exchange rate pass-through to import prices. A dollar pricing model can explain the observed asymmetry
in the transmission of monetary policy: US monetary policy affects US output more than European monetary policy affects European
output. I also show that the current account is an important channel through which monetary policy affects welfare. The paper
concludes that under dollar pricing a monetary expansion is a beggar-thy-neighbour policy. 相似文献
6.
Tai-kuang Ho 《Southern economic journal》2014,81(2):519-534
Exchange rate commitments implied in the silver standard originally anchored China's monetary policy and the inflation rate in the early republican period. It was believed that China's free silver standard acted as a natural check on the excessive issuing of notes by warlords and local governments. This consensus view, however, overlooks the fact that the silver standard was inherently unstable because it left no room for monetary policy to stabilize output and inflation. This article employs a formal structural model to show that a fiat currency unlinked to fluctuations in the price of silver that allows government to implement self‐adjusting monetary policies would further stabilize China's output and inflation. 相似文献
7.
This paper analyses the consequences of “original sin” (the fact that the currency of an emerging market economy usually cannot
be used to borrow abroad) for macroeconomic stability. The approach is based on third-generation models of currency crises,
but differs from alternative versions by explicitly modeling the price setting behavior of firms if prices are sticky and
there is incomplete information about the future exchange rate. It is shown that a small depreciation is beneficial, but a
large one is detrimental. 相似文献
8.
Bogdan GlĂvan 《Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics》2005,8(3):3-19
Conclusion In this paper I have tried to prove that the insulation argument for independent fiat currencies is flawed, both because of
its lack of sound theoretical foundation, and because of its empirical irrelevance. We have seen that the confusion about
essential monetary notions makes the case for monetary independence look intuitively appealing. However, the occurrence of
asymmetric trade shocks cannot be a good reason in its favor, for such shocks are more an illusion due to an incomplete knowledge
of economic history and to a weak understanding of the adjustment mechanism in a worldwide integrated economy. Moreover, regardless
of the importance of such trade changes, devaluation cannot offset the need for relative prices and wages adjustment to match
the impact of the change. And by the additional inflationary effects it entails, devaluation harms the structure of production
and makes the adjustment even more difficult. Finally, we have seen that even if it is desirable to insulate a region against
a foreign shock-when this shock is the manifestation of a boom—it is impossible to do it. The insulation idea should therefore
be eliminated from the field of international monetary economics, together with the policies advocated on its behalf. 相似文献
9.
Gerard M. Koot 《Atlantic Economic Journal》1982,10(1):3-17
Conclusion The LSE in its early years did not produce a “school of economics” in the sense that Marshall's Cambridge constituted a “school.”
English historical economics was too diffuse, too lacking in strong leadership, too untheoretical, and too committed to economic
history as a discipline to create such a “school.” The special contribution of the LSE in the pre-war period was certainly
not in theory, since one of the chief reasons for it being an alternative to Marshall's school of orthodoxy was that it paid
relatively little attention to economic theory during this period. Rather, its alternative economics was its central conception
that the economist'sraison d'etre was to solve pressing contemporary problems for which orthodox theory seemed to offer little guidance. Thus its teachers
and curriculum, assembled by Hewins and the Webbs, emphasized applied subjects and economic history. 相似文献
10.
Michael Wickens 《Open Economies Review》2010,21(3):351-364
The recent economic woes of some Eurozone countries have raised doubts about whether they can remain in the Eurozone. Prior
to these problems emerging, the price levels in these countries rose faster than the average Eurozone price level and their
rates of economic growth were higher. It is conjectured in this paper that the two sets of events are connected. Using a formal
theory of inflation in the Eurozone based on a stylised version of the New Keynesian model, it is shown that, due to a “one-size-fits-all”
monetary policy, inflation rates in individual Eurozone countries are unlikely to converge, and their price levels are likely
to diverge, causing large differences in levels of competitiveness over time. The reason for this is different real effects
in these economies such as productivity differences or different fiscal policies. In other words the Eurozone is not an optimal
currency area. Despite the outstanding record of the ECB in achieving its inflation goals, it is powerless to affect the underlying
problem. 相似文献
11.
William D. Craighead 《Open Economies Review》2012,23(2):319-336
The consequences of intersectoral factor immobility for optimal monetary policy are examined in a “New Open Economy Macroeconomics”
framework. When labor cannot be reallocated between tradable and nontradable goods production, this rigidity generates a welfare
loss, which increases as the sectors become more different. When prices are predetermined, the model becomes a monetary “specific
factor” model. Intersectoral factor immobility complicates the optimal monetary policy problem by creating a tradeoff between
stabilizing tradable and nontradable sector labor. When labor is mobile between sectors, policy coordination can significantly
reduce labor volatility. When it is not mobile, coordination results in less volatility in tradable sector labor, but increased
nontradable sector labor volatility. 相似文献
12.
The paper attempts to evaluate the prospect of creating a currency union in the “Greater China” economic area. Despite of
the political deadlock and military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait, the Greater China area has experienced rapid and spontaneous
regional integration in the past decades as a result of increasingly cross-border trade, foreign direct investment (FDI),
technology contracts, and other arrangements in accordance with changes in comparative advantage and industrial upgrading
in these economies. In this study, we focus on the symmetry in shocks that is perceived as one of the major preconditions
of a currency union. In contrast to the previous studies, we investigate the time-varying correlation of supply, REER and
monetary shocks by using the Kalman filter technique to assess the dynamic changes in structural similarity and convergence
among the Greater China economies. We also examine the costs of forming a currency union in the area due to the loss of monetary
autonomy in each economy. Our results suggest that there is a rising structural symmetry between the Greater China economies,
and this area has become increasingly a better candidate for a monetary union.
相似文献
Kiyotaka SatoEmail: |
13.
Willem H. Buiter 《Open Economies Review》2007,18(2):127-156
The paper discusses some fundamental problems in monetary economics associated with the determination and role of the numéraire.
The issues are introduced by formalising a proposal, attributed to Eisler, to remove the zero lower bound on nominal interest
rates by unbundling the numéraire and medium of exchange/means of payment functions of money. The monetary authorities manage
the exchange rate between the numéraire (‘sterling’) and the means of payment (‘drachma’). The short nominal interest rate
on sterling bonds can then be used to target stability for the sterling price level. The paper puts question marks behind
two key bits of conventional wisdom in contemporary monetary economics. The first is the assumption that the monetary authorities
define and determine the numéraire used in private transactions. The second is the proposition that price stability in terms
of that numéraire is the appropriate objective of monetary policy. The paper also discusses the merits of the next step following
the decoupling of the numéraire from the currency: doing away with currency altogether—the cashless economy. Because the unit
of account plays such a central role in New-Keynesian models with nominal rigidities, monetary economics needs to devote more
attention to numérairology—the study of the individual and collective choice processes that govern the adoption of a unit of account and its role in
economic behaviour.
相似文献
Willem H. BuiterEmail: Email: URL: http://www.nber.org/˜wbuiter/ |
14.
Vernon J. Dixon 《The Review of Black Political Economy》1977,7(2):119-156
Conclusion This paper has shown two things. First, it has indicated some of the philosophical ways in which a “pure” African-oriented
world view differs in kind from the “pure” Euro-American-oriented one. Second, it has set forth some of their respective differences
in research methodology, primarily focusing on the area of economics. However, neither of these world views and, therefore,
their research methodologies have absolute validity. Each can claim validity only under its respective limiting conditions.
In the words of Kuhn, “truth may, like proof, be a term with only intra-theoretic applications.” In effect, no interworld
view comparison can or should be made in terms of absolute correspondence to reality. However, overseas Africans in America
do embody both world views in varying degrees. Researchers on black people, therefore, must be familiar with both methodologies
in order to analyze completely the behavior of Afro-Americans. 相似文献
15.
Damjan Kozamernik 《Atlantic Economic Journal》2004,32(4):268-279
This paper overviews the joint strategy of the Bank of Slovenia and of the Government of Slovenian for the policy management
in the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II) and the eventual adoption of the euro. The current prospects of the Slovenian economy
are favorable for early entry into ERM II so that the currency union can be acceded as soon as possible. The ERM II-connected
risks, in particular an asymmetric credit financed demand boom, require a new policy mix to be set in place. While the monetary
policy will focus on the tight management of the nominal exchange rate, the role of inflation restraint and shock absorption
will rely on fiscal and income policies.
The views expressed by the author do not necessarily correspond to those of the Board of the Bank of Slovenia. This paper
was prepared for the panel “Monetary Policy and EMU Enlargement: The Adoption of the Euro” at the International Atlantic Economic
Conference held in Lisbon in March 2004. 相似文献
16.
David D. Vanhoose 《Atlantic Economic Journal》1991,19(4):45-50
Conclusion Printed on the back cover of this volume is a summary of its contents that includes the statement that the book “…is perhaps
best seen not as the end-product of a recent research agenda but as a roadmap for future research on unresolved issues in
monetary theory and policy.” This certainly is truth in advertising. Although the roadmap provided in this book is not unflawed,
it is brilliantly colored and well marked and should be widely read by students and practitioners alike. 相似文献
17.
18.
We evaluate and qualify Friedman's, 1953, “case for flexible exchange rates” in the presence of sticky prices in a two country
model. We find that a flexible regime performs indeed better when the degree of nominal price rigidity is high while a bilateral
peg does better when prices are fairly flexible. This result obtains independent of whether monetary policy is activistic
or not and is mostly due to the negative relationship between employment and productivity shocks when prices are relatively
sluggish (Gali, 1999). A unilateral peg tends to produce the lowest level of world welfare but it sometimes represents the
best monetary arrangement for the pegger.
JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E52, F33, F42 相似文献
19.
Results of empirical research have revealed a characteristic hump-shaped effect of a monetary policy shock on output: The
effect of the shock builds to a peak after several months and then gradually dies out. We analyze, in the context of a ‘new
open economy macroeconomics’ model, factors that imply a hump-shaped response of output to a monetary policy shock. We find
that a hump-shaped effect of a monetary policy shock on output is likely to result if the model features a “catching-up with
the Joneses” effect, pricing-to-market behavior of firms, and imperfect international financial market integration.
We thank two anonymous referees for very helpful comments. The usual disclaimer applies. 相似文献
20.
Tijmen R. Daniëls 《De Economist》2009,157(4):417-439
A main challenge of understanding currency crises is explaining their puzzling timing. Most “second generation” currency crisis
models are static models with multiple equilibria, and exogenous shifts between equilibria are interpreted as shifts of sentiments
on financial markets leading to crises. This article develops a dynamic, continuous time model with a payoff structure similar
to second generation models. We derive endogenous conditions under which shifts in sentiment occur over time, characterise
them in terms the strategic risk associated with speculation, and provide comparative statics. Moreover, we show that the
findings correspond almost exactly to the implications of global game currency crisis models, which are often used for equilibrium
selection in the static context. 相似文献