To be or not to be in monetary union: A synthesis

Monetary union can benefit countries suffering from policy credibility problems if it eliminates the inflation bias and also allows for more efficient management of certain shocks. But it also carries costs as some stabilization may be feasible even in the absence of credibility, and this may be more than what an individual country can hope for in a monetary union. In this paper, we combine the stabilization and credibility branches of the currency union literature and construct a simple welfare criterion that can be used to evaluate alternative monetary arrangements. We produce examples where monetary union may be welfare improving even for low-modest levels of inflation bias (2-3%) as long as business cycles are not too a-synchronized across countries.     

通货膨胀目标制的政策内涵及其应用

本文从分析货币政策的规则和相机抉择之争入手，分析通货膨胀目标制作为名义锚在货币政策中的作用与政策含义，在此基础上探讨如何有效地设计和实行通货膨胀目标制。本文认为，我国货币政策在向通货膨胀目标制过渡过程中，要明确货币政策和汇率政策的主从地位，增强中央银行的独立性以及对宏观经济的分析和预测能力，解决中央银行承担最后贷款人义务而造成的通货膨胀隐患，建立核心通货膨胀指标。     

论当前通货膨胀及其治理

多年来,我国经济始终保持着高增长、低通胀率的良好状态,这种现象甚至被外国学者称为"中国之谜"、"中国奇迹"。而自2007年开始,我国经济却接连遇到各种问题,经济增加放缓,连续两轮高通货膨胀,股市崩盘,何时经济回暖始终未知。本文主要从货币角度分析通货膨胀的成因,以及目前高通胀预期对经济增速放缓的影响,并对政策提出意见。     

反通货膨胀政策的可信度检验

利用机制转换法,构建反通货膨胀政策的可信度检验模型,实证检验1978—2006年中国的宏观经济数据,结果发现,可信的反通货膨胀政策能够更有效地降低经济主体的通货膨胀预期,帮助货币当局达到抑制通货膨胀的目标,但是可信度较低的政策将增加货币当局控制通货膨胀的难度。     

欧盟应对气候变化的边境调节税:新的贸易壁垒

《京都议定书》生效,承担减排义务的附件I国家开始面临竞争力损失和实现减排目标相冲突的两难困境。边境调节税被认为是一个解决问题的好办法,但其在环境问题上的应用是近年来国外学术界讨论的一个热点问题,特别是在气候变化问题上的应用争议较大。最近欧盟有关方面提出要对来自非减排国家的工业化产品征收边境调节税,引起较大的反响。文章从边境调节税的概念及其相关的性质出发,分析了欧盟当前行动的动机与政策应用的前景,对于其可能造成对中欧贸易的影响进行了展望,并分析了这种做法与当前国际贸易制度和国际气候制度的兼容性,认为这种做法缺乏合法性和合理性。     

Towards adopting inflation targeting: The credibility and limitations of monetary policy under the fixed exchange system—the case of Jordan

In this paper, the interest rate pass‐through is examined within its intermediate lag of action to shed light on the credibility of monetary policy in Jordan, where the reputation of low inflation is imported through a fixed exchange rate system to the US dollar. We use time series methods which allow us to test for asymmetric adjustment. The results are compared to that of two inflation targeting countries at time proceeding building the credibility of price stability domestically: New Zealand and the UK. The empirical findings suggest that the interest rate pass‐through in Jordan is weak and slow. In addition, our results indicate the existence of non‐competitive pricing behaviour in the market. Comparing the results to the two inflation targeters, the study suggests that Jordan needs to move to a more resilient exchange rate arrangement.     

Managing an Economy Under EMU: The Case of Ireland

Ireland's experience of limited monetary independence within the EMS indicated that such independence was bought at the price of significant risk premia on interest rates. This experience informed its decision to join EMU, and membership has resulted in the expected credibility gain. Since the start of EMU inflation in consumer prices in Ireland has risen well above the EU average. However, this need not be a matter of concern within a monetary union. Instead, what should concern the Irish administration is a high rate of inflation in wage rates and domestic asset prices chiefly housing. While monetary policy is no longer available as an instrument of domestic policy, fiscal policy can still be used to effectively target these problems. The lessons of the first three years of membership is that the focus of fiscal policy within Ireland needs to change, and that the EU institutions also need to focus more clearly on the needs of the Euro area rather than on those of individual regional economies.     

Macroeconomic Determinants of Investment under Inflation Targeting: Empirical Evidence from the Brazilian Economy

The use of interest rate as the main tool by which central banks implement inflation targets points to a strong link between private investment decisions and monetary policy. With the objective of contributing to the literature surrounding macroeconomic determinants of investment under inflation targeting, an empirical analysis through Generalized Method of Moments models for the Brazilian case is made. In a general way, the findings underscore the relevance of macroeconomic variables for the determination of investment. In particular, we find that success inflation targeting creates a stable macroeconomic environment that promotes private investment.     

Geldpolitik aus Sicht der Bundesbank: auf dem Weg zu einem neuen Paradigma?

The ECB decision to cut its benchmark interest rate in November 2013 has been severely criticised in Germany. Against this background, the President of the Bundesbank justified the ECB’s monetary policy stance in recent speeches. At the same time, however, he argued that this stance carries risks and has adverse effects. By noting this, he leaves it open to interpretation whether a more restrictive stance would be appropriate even if inflation is well within the target range. If this interpretation were to be correct, it would indicate a deviation from elements of the pre-crisis consensus, namely that policy makers should aim at a clear target and should justify their measures in a consistent way.     

An information-based theory of international currency

This paper develops an information-based theory of international currency based on search frictions, private trading histories, and imperfect recognizability of assets. Using an open-economy search model with multiple competing currencies, the value of each currency is determined without requiring agents to use a particular currency to purchase a country's goods. Strategic complementarities in portfolio choices and information acquisition decisions generate multiple equilibria with different types of payment arrangements. While some inflation can benefit the country issuing an international currency, the threat of losing international status puts an inflation discipline on the issuing country. When monetary authorities interact in a simple policy game, the temptation to inflate can lead optimal policy to deviate from the Friedman rule. The calibrated model can produce a welfare cost of losing international status for the issuing country larger than previous findings, though estimates depend critically on inflation rates and information costs.     

Devaluation - Defeat or Golden Opportunity?

This paper considers whether the recent sterling devaluation represents a defeat for government policy or a golden opportunity for industrial recovery. It argues that devaluation offers a window of opportunity for higher growth and investment, but that this will disappear after two or three years with higher inflation. The risk is that this may distract firms from the necessity of competing on product and process innovation and marketing. The damage to the credibility of government policy has also been profound.     

EZB: Mehr Transparenz wagen

The ECB is a central bank with a high level of transparency. However, it still does not publish voting records or minutes, and it publishes infl ation forecasts only on a quarterly basis. This paper argues that both the credibility and effectiveness of the ECB’s monetary policy could be enhanced by enlarging its transparency. This is especially necessary if the central bank takes such far-reaching decisions as the unlimited bond buying programme. Then the public has a right to know how and why this decision was taken.     

Research and Ethical Issues Related to Retirement Plans

Many different parties are involved in regulating, providing, and consuming pension and retiree health benefits. This essay identifies the specific parties involved in private and public pension plans and health care plans, discusses the tradeoffs made among the parties, and suggests ways in which research can assist ethical judgments and policy decisions. The essay also gives specific examples where research can address ethical questions.     

基于中国实时数据的产出缺口估计及其修正——兼论中国产出缺口和通货膨胀之间的预测关系

基于1994Q1-2008Q4的数据并分别利用三次趋势和HP滤波两种模型方法估计中国的实时、准实时和最终产出缺口,分析显示,这一时期中国的产出缺口遭受了较大而且高度持续的修正,说明中国的实时产出缺口和基于事后修正数据估计的产出缺口有很大不同。进一步比较实时产出缺口和最终产出缺口与通货膨胀之间的菲利普斯曲线预测关系,发现实时产出缺口的通胀预测表现显著好于最终产出缺口。由于货币政策决策总发生在"实时",不能等待事后产出缺口等数据信息的修正,因此,区分实时数据和事后修正数据对经济分析和政策决策而言可能就十分重要。     

An epidemiological study of injury in mines: implications for safety promotion

This paper is intended to raise risk management as a topic for discussion among product safety professionals and discuss one particular key element of understanding risk. Risk management is an essential part of good product safety management, whether at the policy level or the implementation stage, and is relevant to all those involved in the development and use of standards, including regulators and suppliers. The risk management process involves measuring the risks at the initial stage, by looking at consequence (possible injury) and likelihood (of that injury occurring) which then gives us the ‘inherent risk.’ We then seek ways to treat the risks. A second assessment of the risks is subsequently done to establish the extent to which the treatment will address the problem (‘assessed risk’). In product safety, this means how dangerous is the product as it is and how effective will a measure be in reducing the risk. Communication is vital in this process. When standards are developed and policy adopted, the factors that are taken into consideration need to be properly documented. The rationales for decisions, i.e., what the hazard is and how it is treated by the product specification, should be recorded within the standard itself. In the absence of recorded reasons, assumptions are made and these may well be incorrect. This paper discusses this topic in some detail and provides illustrative examples.     

Is the US Dollar a Suitable Anchor for the Newly Proposed GCC Currency?

Responses of inflation and non‐oil output growth from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to monetary policy shocks from the United States (US) were estimated to determine whether there is evidence to support the US dollar as the anchor for the proposed unified currency. A structural vector autoregression identified with short‐run restrictions was employed for each country with Fed funds rate as the US monetary policy instrument, non‐oil output growth and inflation. The main results suggest that for inflation, the GCC countries show synchronised responses to monetary policy shocks from the US which are similar to inflation in the US, and for non‐oil output growth, there is no clear indication that US monetary policy can be as effective for the GCC countries as it is domestically. Consequently, importing US monetary policy via a dollar peg may guarantee only stable inflation for the GCC countries – not necessarily stable non‐oil output growth. If the non‐oil output response is made conscientiously – and there are concerns over the dollar’s ability to perform its role as a store of value – a basket peg with both the US dollar and the euro may be a sound alternative as confirmed by the variance decomposition analysis of our augmented SVAR with a proxy for the European short‐term interest rate.     

The Biases that Limit Our Thinking about the Economic Outlook and Policy

To make effective private-sector decisions and government policy, it is important for those who make decisions and those who are impacted by them to know whether these decisions might be influenced by underlying biases. This paper enumerates and discusses potential biases, their sources, and how they might influence selected policies and decisions.     

Fiscal policy and regional inflation in a currency union

Substantial attention has been devoted to inflation differentials within the European Monetary Union, including suggestions that inflation differentials are a policy issue for national governments. This paper investigates the ability of a region participating in a currency union to affect its inflation differential with respect to the union through fiscal policy. In a two-region general equilibrium model with traded and nontraded goods, lowering the labor income tax rate in response to positive inflation differentials succeeds in compressing inflation differentials. Such policies can lead to higher volatility of domestic inflation while leaving the volatility of real output roughly unchanged. Regional fiscal policies also have spill-over effects on the volatility of union-wide and foreign inflation in our model.     

Monetary Dynamics of Inflation in China

This paper investigates both the short‐run and the long‐run relationships between monetary growth and inflation in China between 1980 and 2010. We construct multivariate dynamic models based on Friedman’s quantity theory of money (but permitting money to be endogenous) and Meltzer’s monetarist model. The empirical results provide robust evidence that there is a bilateral causal relationship between monetary growth and inflation as well as between monetary growth and output growth. An indirect and implicit causal relationship between monetary growth and inflation is found through the asset inflation channel. There are also long‐run equilibrium relationships between money stock, price index and other relevant variables. The present paper further provides a historical exploration of the mechanism of the monetary dynamics of inflation in China over the underlying period. We conclude that the monetary growth rule is likely to be the most promising policy orientation for China to manage its inflation.     

A New Framework to Estimate the Near-Term Path of the Fed Funds Rate

We propose a forward-looking method to estimate the path for the federal funds target rate. We utilize six-month out probabilities of inflationary and disinflationary pressures, along with a labor market index, to estimate the fed funds rate. We further suggest that due to the changing nature of economies and impending risks to the economic outlook, a time-varying method (consistent with the nature of risks) would help decision makers to improve effective decision making. Our econometric results suggest disinflation (or disinflationary pressure), not inflationary pressure, best explains fed funds rate movements from the 1990s forward. Based on June 2016 data, there is a 55 percent chance that the inflation rate would stay below 1.5 percent during the next six months. The recent higher disinflationary pressure probability may be one reason the FOMC has repeatedly lowered its path for the fed funds rate. Unfortunately, the low-inflation zombie is real.