以主成分分析法构建企业财务危机预警模型

财务危机预警模型的建立,对企业预防和化解财务危机,提高其危机预警管理水平有着重要的意义.目前国内外学者对财务危机预警模型的研究主要集中在多元回归分析模型、多元判别分析模型、神经网络预警模型等模型的构建上,本文将采用主成分分析法,利用上市公司财务数据,构建财务危机预警模型.     

企业财务危机困境预测模型研究——主成分分析基础上的Logit模型

本文选取沪深两市在2003-2005年度被实行退市风险警示的56家上市公司以及随机选取的56家正常公司进行实证研究,尝试建立主成分分析基础上的 Logit 模型对财务危机进行预测,结果显示,主成分分析基础上的 Logit 模型能够有效预测财务困境。     

企业财务危机预警模型应用的比较研究

企业建立财务危机预警系统的关键是选择合适的预警模型。进行企业财务危机预警应坚持远期监测与近期预警相结合。单变量模型的远期监测效果比较理想,多变量预警模型的近期预警精度比较高。由于多变量模型只能预测财务危机而不能解释财务危机产生的原因,因此通过近期预警一旦发现了财务危机的动向,就应该对其进行修正,加入其他变量,对其进行必要的整合,或与企业的实际情况相结合,运用财务报表分析法查找企业发生危机的原因,以便有针对性地采取有效措施,将危机化解在萌芽阶段。     

企业财务危机预警分析模型的比较研究

1997年下半年，一场金融风暴横扫新加坡、马来西亚等东南亚国家和地区，并进一步发展成为50年来最严重的国际经济危机，对这场波及范围广泛，破坏力巨大的危机，金融界的专家们总结了许多正反两方面的经验教训，更有学者一针见血地指出：金融危机的源头在企业，企业的负债比率过高，资产的流动属于 和偿债能力太差，造成银行的不良资产过多是导致东南亚金融危机的一个深层次的原因，防范金融危机应从防范企业财务危机着手。     

多元统计分析在企业财务危机预警中的应用

科学技术不断进步,促使我国市场经济体制不断进行改革深化,企业财务管理的方式也呈现出多样化的趋势。在发展的过程中,由于企业财务管理的不完善和企业运营的问题,企业财务危机现象不断出现,现在越来越多的企业开始利用多元统计分析的方法进行财务风险统计,并及时进行危机预警。本文主要对于多元统计分析在企业财务语境中的应用展开论述,通过不同的分析方法以及多元统计分析对于企业财务预警的作用,为企业的财务危机预警提出意见和建议。     

企业财务危机预警研究

随着市场经济的发展,企业内部出现财务危机的可能性大大增加,如果这些财务危机不能够及时的得到解决,将会给企业带来难以估量的损失。如果企业能够提前发现财务危机出现的预兆,提前做好准备,及时的解决这个问题,就可以使得企业避免或者减少财务危机带来的负面影响,从而更好的促进企业的经营与发展。     

企业财务危机预警体系研究

随着国家经济社会的不断发展,我国经济呈现出经济发展新常态.在经济全球化不断发展的今天,市场竞争也日趋激烈.越来越多的发展机会同时带来了新的挑战与相应的风险.而企业在这样的大环境下,必须正确应对挑战与风险,才能更好地利用时代带来的发展机会.由于当代市场中存在着各种潜在的发展危机,企业能否正确应对各种各样的危机对于企业的稳定发展显得尤为重要.因此,面对日益增多的危机,企业必须制定出一套合理的财务危机预警体系来保证企业的平稳发展.     

基于主成分分析法的财务危机预警研究——以高新技术企业为例

随着科学技术的不断完善和发展,创新已成为科技改革的主要动力。国务院批复了《山东省新旧动能转换综合试验区建设总体方案》,新一代信息技术等五大新兴产业和高端化工等五大优势产业成为山东重点培育产业。国家越来越重视创新和可持续发展,而高新技术企业作为经济发展中的新兴力量和重要组成部分,由于其自身“高风险,高收益”的特点,所面临的挑战和风险也日益突显。为了迎合国家的发展趋势,提高科技创新在竞争中所处的主导地位,高新技术企业在经营中有效控制和规避财务风险就显得尤为重要。     

企业财务危机预警体系研究

笔者以企业财务危机预警体系为研究视角,结合自身的多年财务工作经验和企业发展现状,针对我国企业应如何设计并建立适合自身的财务危机预警机制试提出自己的相关见解。希望能够对我国企业的未来发展略尽绵薄之力。     

企业财务危机预警指标改进研究

时代在进步,企业经济的竞争也越来越激烈,与此同时,企业的财务安全,越来越在企业健康持续发展中扮演更重要的角色,财务危机预警在企业日常运营中具有举足轻重的作用,为了克服财务危机预警研究中的缺陷,需结合不同行业的财务数据,并根据各行业的实际应用情况,构建适用于各行业的财务危机预警模型。     

A Note on Selecting a Response Measure for Financial Distress

Since 1966, researchers have examined financial distress prediction models to determine the usefulness of accounting information to lenders. These researchers primarily used legal bankruptcy as the response variable for economic financial distress, or included legal bankruptcy with other events in dichotomous prediction models. However, theoretical models of financial distress normally define financial distress as an economic event, the inability to pay debts when due (insolvency). This study uses a loan default/accommodation response variable as a proxy for the inability to pay debts when due. The purpose of this note is to empirically test whether or not using the inability of a firm to pay debts when due, loan default/accommodation, as a response measure produces different results than using legal bankruptcy as the response measure. The study's empirical results show that legal bankruptcy and loan default/accommodation financial distress prediction models produce different statistical results, thus suggesting that the responses measure different constructs. A loan default/accommodation model also fits the data better than a bankrupt model. Our results suggest that a loan default/accommodation response may be a more appropriate measure to determine which accounting information is most useful to lenders in evaluating a firm's credit risk.     

Predicting Corporate Financial Distress: A Time-Series CUSUM Methodology

The ability to predict corporate financial distress can be strengthened using models that account for serial correlation in the data, incorporate information from more than one period and include stationary explanatory variables. This paper develops a stationary financial distress model for AMEX and NYSE manufacturing and retailing firms based on the statistical methodology of time-series Cumulative Sums (CUSUM). The model has the ability to distinguish between changes in the financial variables of a firm that are the result of serial correlation and changes that are the result of permanent shifts in the mean structure of the variables due to financial distress. Tests performed show that the model is robust over time and outperforms similar models based on the popular statistical methods of Linear Discriminant Analysis and Logit.     

Employee Relations and the Likelihood of Occurrence of Corporate Financial Distress

Abstract:   In this paper, we investigate the association of employee relations with the occurrence of onset of financial distress. We argue that if adverse economic conditions arise, firms that have maintained good employee relations will be more effective in obtaining temporary labor concessions. As a result, firms with good employee relations, to the extent they are dependent on labor in the conduct of business operations, should be more likely to avoid the onset of future financial distress. The empirical findings we document support this prior.     

The Relationship between Changes in Fixed Plant Investment and the Likelihood of Emergence from Corporate Financial Distress

Companies experiencing financial distress can attempt to mitigate financial distress through changing the investment in the fixed asset base. Management may choose to expand the asset base in hopes of increasing sales. Alternatively, management may choose to contract the asset base in order to eliminate and/or reduce investment in unprofitable or risky ventures, improve liquidity, reduce earnings volatility, and reduce the need for operating capital.In this study, we examined how observed changes in the investment base affect the likelihood of emergence from a financially distressed condition. We find that, when management chooses to contract the investment in property, plant, and equipment, the likelihood of emergence from financial distress is significantly improved. On the other hand, when management chooses to expand property, plant, and equipment in the face of distress, the distress is only intensified. Our explanation is that companies that choose to contract their fixed asset base in times of trouble are taking steps that will most likely improve their financial condition—they are less likely to need working capital, and can better tolerate increased levels of long-term debt. Conversely, increasing the fixed asset base amplifies the need for working capital, and borrowing money to facilitate the expansion simply increases the necessary uses of that working capital because the debt must be serviced. As a result, companies descend even deeper into financial distress and decrease the likelihood that they will emerge therefrom.     

中国风电上市公司财务绩效评价研究

基于DEA模型对39家风电板块上市公司的财务绩效进行定量分析,结果显示：中国风电上市公司有必要进一步改进财务绩效,特别是连续3年评价结果均不理想的上市公司更迫切需要进一步优化投入产出系统,提升财务绩效;从投入指标的松弛程度看,未来风电上市公司应通过并购、合资等方式进一步扩大企业经营规模,更为重要的是亟需建立行之有效的成本控制体系,降低企业的经营成本冗余程度,从而提高企业财务绩效;国家有必要进一步出台面向风电产业的政策法规和行业标准,通过合理制定电价标准、加大财政补贴力度等方式支持、规范、引导风电上市公司合理经营,实现又好又快的跨越式发展。     

The Relevance of Stock and Flow-Based Reporting Information In Assessing the Likelihood of Emergence from Corporate Financial Distress

A number of recent studies have shown that earnings information is less useful and value relevant when firms are financially troubled. This finding has given rise to the consideration of alternatives. In this paper, we examine the contributions of book value-based proxies (normal earnings and abandonment value) and flow-based proxies (earnings and operating accruals) to the assessment of the likelihood of emergence from financial distress. Our prior reasoning is that while book value-based proxies may provide information about potential future cash resources, flow-based proxies, because they capture the progress of reorganization efforts underway, as opposed to mere potential, should be relatively more useful in assessing the likelihood of emergence from distress. Our findings are consistent with this explanation. We document that the primary predictors of emergence are flow-based proxies—in particular, cash from operations, net of earnings.     

基于主成分分析法的商业银行财务评价研究

如何对商业银行财务状况做出科学全面的评价,日益成为监管者、投资人和管理者关注的焦点。通过总结以往商业银行财务评价研究中存在问题,有针对性地提出一套商业银行财务评价方法。首先按照"盈利性、安全性、流动性"的商业银行经营原则,构建起一套商业银行财务评价指标体系,然后以13家上市银行为样本,运用主成分分析法完成财务综合评价函数设计,最后选取深圳发展银行为典型,应用所设计财务评价方法对其进行财务分析,以验证该方法的科学性和适用性。     

The Impact of Managing Director Changes and Financial Distress on Audit Qualification and Auditor Switching

Abstract:   This study examines the interactive effects of change in managing director/chief executive officer (MD) and financial distress together with five control variables (type of audit firm; audit fees; gearing; time; and company size) on first, audit opinion and secondly on auditor switching. Based on a sample of 297 UK listed companies between 1987 and 2001, we find that companies that are financially distressed and change their MD are most likely to receive a qualified audit report, ceteris paribus . In addition, we find evidence of both familiarity and intimidation threats and that the probability of a switch increases with the severity of qualification.     

金融危机研究模型与预测问题研究

本文回顾了金融危机形成理论的研究方法和研究模型,发现这些模型有两个重要的缺陷:即脱离了危机前宏观经济恶化的实际,同时把政府在经济恶化后的经济政策外生于模型之外,从而导致了危机理论只能解释危机而无法形成正确的预测。本文认为金融危机是市场缺陷在宏观经济恶化条件下的放大,是不适当的宏观经济政策的必然结果,现代金融条件下金融体系的脆弱性增加了金融危机爆发的频次和危害性。     

重大突发事件背景下金融行业间极端风险相依和风险溢出研究

金融行业的风险问题关系到金融稳定和经济安全.构建包含利空消息和利好消息的时变Copula-CoVaR模型,结合金融危机、股市震荡、贸易摩擦、疾病疫情等重大突发事件,考量金融行业之间的极端风险相依结构和风险溢出效应及其动态演化过程.结果表明,金融行业间风险相依和风险溢出均具有显著的厚尾性、非对称性和时变性特征,同时存在显著的动态极端风险相依和风险溢出,且下尾风险相依和风险溢出的程度更大,对市场行情下跌的反应更为敏感;银行业在整个金融系统中发挥着至关重要的作用,其对证券业、保险业和其他金融业的极端风险相依和风险溢出均处于较高水平;不同时期的重大突发事件对金融行业间极端风险相依和风险溢出的影响存在明显差异,事发后风险相依变化较为平缓,而风险溢出急剧加强并表现出持续性.