Effects of tax reform on drop-off ratios and on the ex-dividend and ex-right prices

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the integrated tax system introduced in Taiwan on the valuation of dividends. Based on Elton and Gruber??s (Rev Econ Stat 52:68?C74, 1970) model, the ratio of ex-day price drop to cash dividend per share (i.e., the drop-off ratio) should reflect the relative taxes on dividends and capital gains. In Taiwan, the suspension of capital gains taxes, the coexistence of taxable and non-taxable stock dividends, and the change in tick sizes allow us to control for the influences of non-tax factors on drop-off ratios. In this paper, we find significant increases in drop-off ratios for both cash dividends and taxable stock dividends after Taiwan??s tax reform (in 1998), while we find no significant changes in drop-off ratios for non-taxable stock dividends. These results provide further evidence to support the argument that tax affects the valuation of firms.     

Dividend signaling under economic adversity: Evidence from the London Stock Exchange

The signaling or information content hypothesis is amongst the most prominent theories attempting to explain dividend policy decisions. However, no research has, to date, examined the information content of dividends in conjunction with generalized economic adversity. With the majority of the western economies facing the tough reality of the economic recession since late 2007–early 2008, we focus on the possibility of asymmetrical dividend signaling effects between periods of stability and economic adversity. Using data from the London Stock Exchange (LSE), where earnings and dividend news are released simultaneously, we test the dividend signaling hypothesis and the interaction of earnings and dividends under both steady and adverse economic conditions. We document positive and significant average abnormal stock price returns around the dividend/earnings announcements. We also find a significant interaction between economic conditions and the information content of dividends. After testing the dividend signaling hypothesis under both stable and recessionary economic conditions we find that dividends have less information content than earnings in periods of growth and stability, but more in periods of economic adversity.     

The market valuation of cash dividends: The citizens utilities case reconsidered

This paper re-examines the case of Citizens Utilities, a firm with one class of common stock which pays stock dividends and one which pays taxable cash dividends. John Long's (1978) study of the two shares' relative prices suggests that investors may prefer cash dividends to equal-sized stock dividends. This paper finds that the cash dividend share's ex-day price decline is less than their dividend payment. Stock dividend shares fall by nearly their full dividend. The disparity between ex-day dividend valuation and the observed prices of the two shares is inconsistent with some explanations of the demand for cash dividends.     

A multivariate Markov chain stock model

ABSTRACT

We propose a dividend stock valuation model where multiple dividend growth series and their dependencies are modelled using a multivariate Markov chain. Our model advances existing Markov chain stock models. First, we determine assumptions that guarantee the finiteness of the price and risk as well as the fulfilment of transversality conditions. Then, we compute the first- and second-order price-dividend ratios by solving corresponding linear systems of equations and show that a different price-dividend ratio is attached to each combination of states of the dividend growth process of each stock. Subsequently, we provide a formula for the computation of the variances and covariances between stocks in a portfolio. Finally, we apply the theoretical model to the dividend series of three US stocks and perform comparisons with existing models. The results could also be applied for actuarial purposes as a general stochastic investment model and for calculating the initial endowment to fund a portfolio of dependent perpetuities.     

AN ANALYSIS OF SHAREHOLDER REACTION TO DIVIDEND CUTS AND OMISSIONS

In this paper the proposition is tested that stock market reaction to a dividend change is a function of its information content. A multiple regression model is formulated to identify the factors that contribute significantly to the capital loss suffered by shareholders when firms decide to cut/omit dividends. Results indicate that, in conformity with the information content hypothesis, the announcement period capital loss induced by a dividend deduction significantly depends on the percentage change in dividends, the size and risk of the firm, and the price performance of the firm's stock in the immediately preceding period. The results further reveal that (1) simultaneous announcements of poor earnings cause larger capital losses; (2) prior announcements of loss/lower earnings, strikes, etc. attenuate the negative impact of dividend cuts; (3) managerial reassurances that the dividend reduction is growth-motivated produces a weakly favorable effect, and (4) institution of stock dividends concurrently with the dividend cut significantly reduces the negative valuation effect. It is concluded from the evidence that stock market reaction to managerial signals is a function of the perceived costs associated with these signals.     

Managerial actions and nominal stock price levels

We examine nominal and real stock prices and the sequential price pattern of stock dividends and stock splits. We find that the average stock price has been fairly stable over time except for two decades in the beginning and end of the twentieth century. Inclusion of these periods yield a decline over time which is generally consistent with the drop in price levels found by Chittenden et al. [2010. “A Note on Affordability and the Optimal Share Price.” Financial Review 45: 205–216]. In a multivariate setting, the frequency of stock dividends and stock splits is positively related to the frequency for these events the prior year and recent market return. In further tests of the price change we find a positive relationship to the median price change for stock dividends/splits and negatively to labour income growth for stock splits. These findings indicate that stock price reduction via stock dividends and splits attracts individual investors as income grows. One key conclusion is that the primary reason for any stock action, dividend or split, is to fit the ‘norm’ stock price level of the market.     

New Evidence That Taxes Affect the Valuation of Dividends

This paper uses British data to examine the effects of dividend taxes on investors' relative valuation of dividends and capital gains. British data offer great potential to illuminate the dividends and taxes question, since there have been two radical changes and several minor reforms in British dividend tax policy during the last 30 years. Studying the relationship between dividends and stock price movements during different tax regimes offers an ideal controlled experiment for assessing the effects of taxes on investors' valuation of dividends. Using daily data on a small sample of firms, and monthly data on a much broader sample, we find clear evidence that taxes affect the equilibrium relationship between dividend yields and market returns. These findings suggest that taxes are important determinants of security market equilibrium and deepen the puzzle of why firms pay dividends.     

Putting the dividend–price ratio under the microscope

We analyze the time-series properties of the dividend–price ratios (DPRs) of 11 developed countries since the early 70s. Despite its frequent use in research as a valuation method for stock prices and a determinant of stock returns, previous studies suggest that there is mixed evidence of the time-series properties of DPRs predicted by economic theory. We argue that this mixed result is attributable to the sample size used in previous studies. Here, we have opted to implement the panel data approach (i.e., N>2) to increase the total size of observations rather than relying on the traditional method (i.e., increasing the size of T). In this way, we can increase the total number of observations without increasing the likelihood of structural breaks. For this purpose, we implement the panel unit root test taking account of cross sectional dependence, and obtain clear evidence of stationary DPRs. Thus, we conclude that a significant one-to-one long-run relationship exists between stock prices and dividends for the countries in our samples.     

The St. Petersburg paradox and capital asset pricing

Durand (J Finance 12:348–363, 1957) shows that the classical St. Petersburg paradox can apply to the valuation of a firm whose dividends grow at a constant rate forever. To capture a more realistic pattern of dividends, we model the dividend growth rate as a mean reverting process, and then use the capital asset pricing model to derive the risk-adjusted present value. The model generates an equivalent St. Petersburg game. The long-run growth rate of the payoffs (dividends) is dominant in driving the value of the game (firm), and the condition under which the value is finite is less restrictive than that of the standard game.     

THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF DIVIDEND CHANGES

In this study, the open empirical question as to whether or not dividends contain information is investigated. The study involves 200 stocks and 376 dividend announcements over the 1971 to 1977 period; measures of unexpected dividends are related to measures of abnormal returns for dividend changing stocks. This study is important for three reasons:

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Expected returns and expected dividend growth

We investigate a consumption-based present-value relation that is a function of future dividend growth and find that changing forecasts of dividend growth are an important feature of the post-war U.S. stock market, despite the failure of the dividend–price ratio to uncover such variation. In addition, dividend forecasts are found to covary with changing forecasts of excess stock returns over business cycle frequencies. This covariation is important because positively correlated fluctuations in expected dividend growth and expected returns have offsetting effects on the log dividend–price ratio. The market risk premium and expected dividend growth thus vary considerably more than is apparent using the log divided–price ratio alone as a predictive variable.     

Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk

We examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on firm-specific crash risk. Based on a large sample of Chinese listed firms over the period from 2000 to 2017, we provide empirical evidence that firms are more likely to experience stock price crashes when EPU increases. Cross-sectionally analysis further reveals that the impact of EPU on stock price crash risk is stronger for firms whose returns are more sensitive to EPU. More specifically, young stocks, small stocks, high volatility stocks, and growth stocks, which have higher valuation uncertainty per se, are more sensitive to EPU and are more affected by EPU in terms of crash risk. We further show that EPU is significantly and positively associated with aggregated stock price crash risk at the market level.     

A Test of the Relative Pricing Effects of Dividends and Earnings: Evidence from Simultaneous Announcements in Japan

We study the pricing effects of dividend and earnings announcements by taking advantage of the unique setting in Japan where managers simultaneously announce the current year's dividends and earnings as well as forecasts of next year's dividends and earnings. Defining surprises as deviations from analysts' forecasts, we find that share price reactions are significantly affected by earnings surprises, especially management forecasts of next year's earnings. The information content of dividends is marginal and is restricted to announcements of next year's dividends. Consistent with Modigliani and Miller's dividend irrelevance proposition, current dividend surprises have no material impact on stock prices in Japan.     

THE RELATION AMONG DIVIDEND POLICY,FIRM SIZE,AND THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS

In this paper we investigate the role of dividends in explaining the size effect. The previous literature concludes that before the firm's earnings announcement, small firm stock prices impound less information than large firm stock prices. This size effect is evidenced by the greater market reaction to small firm earnings announcements than to large firm earnings announcements. We find that if the dividend announcement precedes the earnings announcement, no size effect exists. The implication is that the information conveyed by dividend announcements includes the information conveyed to investors in large firms by other information sources. However, if the firm does not pay dividends or if the firm's earnings announcement precedes its dividend announcement, the size effect exists. The implication is that dividends do not completely explain the size effect. That is, there are information sources other than dividends that are exclusively available to investors in large firms, and the information provided by these sources is reflected in the stock price of large firms before the earnings announcement.     

The relative pricing of European dividend futures and their predictive abilities for index returns

We use dividend futures prices to derive a dividend future discount model. Arbitrage arguments postulate that the sum of discounted dividend futures prices should equal the index price, i.e. the sum of discounted dividends. We analyze whether this relation holds and find that the two valuation approaches lead to a different valuation of expected dividends. These observations indicate that dividend futures and index prices seem to provide the investor with different information on future dividends. We further show that the difference in valuation can be used to forecast index returns and show how an investment strategy can exploit this predictability.     

Flexibility and dividends

We develop a model of corporate dividend policy based on the idea that management values operating flexibility. By reducing dividends and conserving cash, management increases its flexibility. This improves its ability to invest in projects that it believes are good for the shareholders in the long run but which shareholders would not provide the capital for because they think the projects are value reducing. However, the cost of not paying dividends is a reduction in the current stock price. Management trades off these two aspects of dividends. Flexibility considerations help us understand various dimensions of dividend policy that existing theories do not explain. Our theory generates numerous testable predictions that we confront with the data. The evidence is supportive of the model.     

DIVIDENDS, DIVIDEND POLICY AND OPTION VALUATION: A NEW PERSPECTIVE

This paper develops a model which explicitly incorporates the impact of the payment of dividends on the underlying stock into the valuation of both American and European calls and puts. Unlike earlier models, what we call the Dividend Adjustment Merton (DAM) model neither assumes arbitrary continuous dividends nor uses ad hoc methods to adjust for discrete dividend payments. Instead, it assumes the existence of a Miller and Modigliani (1961) valuation neutral dividend policy and adjusts Merton's constant proportional dividend model to incorporate any known schedule of discrete cash dividends of this type. The DAM model produces results which are equal to or superior to those of the separate models now used to value American calls (the Roll-Geske-Whaley model) and American puts (the Geske-Johnson model) on dividend paying stocks. It has the virtue of being internally consistent in that the same model can be used to value both calls and puts. In developing the DAM model, the paper clarifies the role of dividends and dividend policy in determining option values. It also produces significantly tightened boundary conditions for option values.     

Efficient option pricing on stocks paying discrete or path-dependent dividends with the stair tree

Pricing options on a stock that pays discrete dividends has not been satisfactorily settled because of the conflicting demands of computational tractability and realistic modelling of the stock price process. Many papers assume that the stock price minus the present value of future dividends or the stock price plus the forward value of future dividends follows a lognormal diffusion process; however, these assumptions might produce unreasonable prices for some exotic options and American options. It is more realistic to assume that the stock price decreases by the amount of the dividend payout at the ex-dividend date and follows a lognormal diffusion process between adjacent ex-dividend dates, but analytical pricing formulas and efficient numerical methods are hard to develop. This paper introduces a new tree, the stair tree, that faithfully implements the aforementioned dividend model without approximations. The stair tree uses extra nodes only when it needs to simulate the price jumps due to dividend payouts and return to a more economical, simple structure at all other times. Thus it is simple to construct, easy to understand, and efficient. Numerous numerical calculations confirm the stair tree's superior performance to existing methods in terms of accuracy, speed, and/or generality. Besides, the stair tree can be extended to more general cases when future dividends are completely determined by past stock prices and dividends, making the stair tree able to model sophisticated dividend processes.     

Effective teaching and use of the constant growth dividend discount model

The appropriate application of the constant growth dividend discount model (DDM) requires an understanding of the fundamental nature of the model and its parameters. It is important that students not only be able to mechanically “plug and chug” the formula, but that they also understand the model’s assumptions, inputs, sensitivity to error and practical limitations. This paper demonstrates that the valuation measure derived from using the DDM is very sensitive to the relationship between the required return on investment (K_s) and the assumed growth rate (g) in earnings and dividends. Examples show that the valuation error increases at an increasing rate when the values of K_s and g converge in the formula. Classroom experience has indicated that students believe and strive to compute a single “correct” valuation of the share price. They should realize that the goal of valuation analysis is to estimate a reasonable range for the intrinsic value of a share price, rather than a single point estimate as often implied by end-of-chapter and exam-type problems using the DDM.