Value versus growth: Australian evidence

The value‐growth effect is one of the most pervasive patterns in stock prices. In this study, the ability of four proxies for value‐growth, book‐to‐market, sales‐to‐price, earnings‐to‐price and cash‐flow‐to‐price to explain equity returns is analysed. The findings show that in aggregate, book‐to‐market best explains cross‐sectional variation in Australian equity returns, which in isolation suggests that it is the superior proxy for value‐growth. The analysis is taken further and the value‐growth effect is examined separately in positive and negative earnings firms. After segregating firms, it is found that in the negative earnings sample, book‐to‐market is the best value‐growth proxy and in the positive earnings sample, cash‐flow‐to‐price has the highest level of significance and is thus the superior value‐growth proxy. The economic significance of this result is telling, as the firms that report positive earnings are much larger than those that report negative earnings.     

Industry upheaval and valuation: Empirical evidence from the international oil and gas industry

Accounting literature suggests that contemporaneous earnings are more useful than current operating cash flow in predicting future cash flows and, therefore, also more relevant for company valuation. However, recent research indicates that elevated levels of merger and acquisition activity or a changing economic environment may reduce the value relevance of earnings. Using the oil and gas industry as a case, this paper examines how the oil industry upheaval in the late 1990s influenced the value relevance of financial statement information. We extend the literature by testing for a structural shift in the equity market valuation process. Our results provide evidence of a structural break in the value relevance of accounting information. In contrast to prior research, we find that the value relevance of cash flows actually decreased in the recent oil industry upheaval. On the other hand, the value relevance of book equity increased. Furthermore, we find that accounting-method choice (full cost versus successful efforts) affects the value relevance of accounting information.     

Real activities manipulation and firm valuation

In this paper, we study the link between real earnings management and firm value. Consistent with prior studies, we expect the ability of a firm to generate future cash flows to be significantly impaired by its use of real activities manipulations. Using a cross-section of companies from the Standard & Poor’s Compustat database from 1990 to 2013, we find that firms with higher real earnings management are associated with lower industry-adjusted Tobin’s Q and firm-specific misvaluation measure. Our results are consistent under several regression techniques addressing potential endogeneity issues and alternative proxies for real earnings management after controlling for known factors to affect firm market values.     

Accruals,Cash Flows,and Equity Values

We find, as predicted, that the differential ability of accrual and cash flow components of earnings to help forecast future abnormal earnings and the persistence of the components result in the components having different valuation implications. We base our tests on Ohlson (1999) applied to fourteen industries. We find: (1) Accruals and cash flows aid in forecasting future abnormal earnings incremental to abnormal earnings and equity book value. (2) Accruals and cash flows provide explanatory power for equity market value incremental to equity book value and abnormal earnings. (3) There is evidence that accruals and cash flows valuation coefficients are consistent with the Ohlson model.     

Foreign Exchange Exposure Elasticity and Financial Distress

Financially distressed firms have limited ability to manage exchange rate exposure over time which could cause their fundamental value to be sensitive to the cash flow volatility related to currency movements. Accordingly, we hypothesize that the likelihood and costs of financial distress help explain cross‐sectional variations in return sensitivity to currency movements. We find that the level of exchange rate exposure elasticity is related to proxies for the likelihood of financial distress, growth opportunities, and product uniqueness. Further, firms with a greater likelihood and higher costs of financial distress exhibit greater abnormal returns in response to large exchange rate shocks.     

Earnings quality and corporate cash holdings

Poor earnings quality exacerbates information asymmetry between internal and external stakeholders of a firm. Agency considerations then persuade investors to discount the value of corporate cash holdings out of concern about the inappropriate use of funds. In this study, we show that poor earnings quality has a negative impact on the value of corporate cash holdings and a positive impact on the level of cash reserves. We find that the negative effect of poor earnings quality either neutralizes or more than offsets the positive effect of excess cash on firm value. Our results are robust to several measures of earnings quality and model specifications.     

Cash flow disaggregation and the prediction of future earnings

We examine the incremental information content of the components of cash flows from operations (CFO). Specifically the research question examined in this paper is whether models incorporating components of CFO to predict future earnings provide lower prediction errors than models incorporating simply net CFO. We use Australian data in this setting as all companies were required to provide information using the direct method during the sample period. We find that the cash flow components model is superior to an aggregate cash flow model in terms of explanatory power and predictive ability for future earnings; and that disclosure of non‐core (core) cash flows components is (not) useful in both respects. Our results are of relevance to investors and analysts in estimating earnings forecasts, managers of firms in regulators’ domains where choice is provided with respect to the disclosure of CFO and also to regulators’ deliberations on disclosure requirements and recommendations.     

The role of earnings components and machine learning on the revelation of deteriorating firm performance

This study explores the proficiency of earnings components for detecting earnings and cash flows distress. The authors examine the deterioration of these two performance indicators for two aggregate and two disaggregate earnings models, each of which is subject to examination through different machine learning, non-parametric, and parametric methods. The results, obtained from firms in 22 countries, reveal that the current information content of earnings not only has explanatory power for future earnings and cash flows but also can support advance classifications of the two performance indicators as negative or positive. Each aggregate and disaggregate model offers distress classification ability, the disaggregation of earnings generates better, robust detection accuracies for cash flow distress, while aggregate earnings model provides improved classification for prospective earnings distress. The findings also suggest that machine learning estimation methods provide superior distress detection compared to a parametric method, despite its still decent performance.     

Effect of cash flow risk on corporate failures,and the moderating role of earnings management and abnormal compensation

In this study, we find that United States firms' average cash flow risk (CFR) shows a significantly increasing trend over the past four decades or so. This does not portend well considering the significance of cash flows in maintaining a firm's financial health and going concern status. The CFR also increases dramatically for firms approaching financial distress or bankruptcy, suggesting its important role in predicting a firm's failure. Empirically, we find that CFR has a strong positive effect on a firm's financial distress likelihood. We also find that the association between CFR and financial distress is negatively moderated in firms with high earnings management and abnormal compensation. The results suggest that managers in firms with high CFR are more likely to use heuristics in form of earnings management. Thus, supporting the upper echelons theory related to managers under performance pressure. Meanwhile, consistent with the notion in the agency theory that financial incentives serve as effective monitoring mechanisms, compensation packages can incentivize better risk management practices and decrease the likelihood of a firm's failure. Our findings are also robust to alternative definitions of a firm's failure: financial constraints, presumed debt covenant violation and legal bankruptcy filings.     

The Incremental Information Content of Earnings and Cash Flows from Operations Affected by Their Extremity

Previous returns studies have shown that extreme earnings and extreme cash flows from operations are less informative than moderate (i.e., less extreme) earnings and moderate cash flows. Studies also report that cash flows supplement to earnings in firm valuation by showing a higher association of cash flows with returns when earnings are extreme than when earnings are moderate. We propose that this supplementary role of cash flows is affected by cash flows extremity. Using data from the US capital markets, we find that the supplementary role of cash flows exists only when cash flows are not extreme. We also investigate the supplementary role of earnings to cash flows and search for a higher association of earnings with returns when cash flows are extreme than when cash flows are moderate. Similar to results on cash flows, our findings show that the supplementary role of earnings exists only when earnings are not extreme. Our results imply that investors and researchers should consider both earnings and cash flows extremity when assessing the information content of these variables.     

An accounting analysis of the risk-return relationship in bull and bear markets

This study provides evidence that accounting beta (earnings and cash flow-based) provides information consistent with the risk-return relationship in up- and down-markets. We are not able, however, to provide similar evidence using market beta. Considering that investors' ability to assess the risk-return trade-off in up- and down-markets is central to efficient portfolio formation, the results suggest that accounting data can provide appropriate measures of portfolio upside and downside risk.     

The value relevance of cash flows, current accruals, and non-current accruals in the UK

Cash flow statements have a longstanding history as mandated financial statement disclosures, having replaced funds flow statements. The usefulness of such disclosures with respect to one of the main purposes of financial statements—providing information relevant to the assessment of future cash flows and their uncertainty, and the market value of firms—is still subject to debate. This study investigates whether various partitions of earnings involving combinations of a cash flow measure of performance and measures of current accruals and non-current accruals improve the ability to explain market values in the UK relative to using earnings alone. Using a valuation model-based methodology, and employing a UK sample of non-financial firms for the years 1993 to 2007, our results suggest strong support for the assertion that cash flows can have incremental value relevance relative to either earnings or funds flows. By implication, cash flows can have separate value relevance from total and, in particular, current accruals. There is slightly less consistent evidence that current and non-current accruals can have separate value relevance but, nonetheless, the results are still strongly in favour in this respect. Generally, the main source of increase in explanatory power for market values is the separate inclusion of our cash flow measure in the estimated regressions. As a consequence, we conclude that the statement of cash flows in the UK provides information useful to UK investors in valuing firms. Further, requiring a cash flow statement, as opposed to a funds flow statement, improves the information content of financial statements in the UK.     

A NOTE ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN REPORTED CASH FLOW MEASURES,RATIOS AND THEIR ACCRUAL COUNTERPARTS

This note focuses on information redundancy of cash flow measures reported in and financial ratios derived directly from Cash Flow Statements. Previous research utilised recomputed, “traditional” and “refined”, measures to proxy for cash flow. Comovements are derived amongst various earnings and cash flow key variable measures, select financial ratios and changes in financial ratios. Key variables' results support the notion that reported cash flows are correlated with funds flow and earnings. However, reported cash flows relative to funds flow are less correlated with most of their accrual based counterparts. Cash flows thus have potential to provide new and non-redundant information relative to funds and accruals. Also, the incremental benefit of reported, relative to reconstructed cash flow measures is apparent. In light of the above, the merit of cash flow for the specific decision context of identifying suspended firms is investigated. Cash flow data in this context is found to be as useful as, but not superior to, comparable accruals data.     

The Relationship between Changes in Fixed Plant Investment and the Likelihood of Emergence from Corporate Financial Distress

Companies experiencing financial distress can attempt to mitigate financial distress through changing the investment in the fixed asset base. Management may choose to expand the asset base in hopes of increasing sales. Alternatively, management may choose to contract the asset base in order to eliminate and/or reduce investment in unprofitable or risky ventures, improve liquidity, reduce earnings volatility, and reduce the need for operating capital.In this study, we examined how observed changes in the investment base affect the likelihood of emergence from a financially distressed condition. We find that, when management chooses to contract the investment in property, plant, and equipment, the likelihood of emergence from financial distress is significantly improved. On the other hand, when management chooses to expand property, plant, and equipment in the face of distress, the distress is only intensified. Our explanation is that companies that choose to contract their fixed asset base in times of trouble are taking steps that will most likely improve their financial condition—they are less likely to need working capital, and can better tolerate increased levels of long-term debt. Conversely, increasing the fixed asset base amplifies the need for working capital, and borrowing money to facilitate the expansion simply increases the necessary uses of that working capital because the debt must be serviced. As a result, companies descend even deeper into financial distress and decrease the likelihood that they will emerge therefrom.     

Earnings characteristics and analysts’ differential interpretation of earnings announcements: An empirical analysis

This study provides empirical evidence on factors that drive differential interpretation of earnings announcements. We document that Kandel and Pearson's forecast measures of differential interpretation are decreasing in proxies for earnings quality and pre‐announcement information quality. This evidence yields new and useful insights regarding which earnings announcements are less likely to generate newfound disagreement among analysts and investors. Recent research suggests that investor disagreement can increase investment risk, increase the cost of capital, and cause stock prices to deviate from fundamental value. Therefore, our results support prior intuition that increasing the quality of earnings and pre‐announcement information can improve the efficiency of capital markets.     

Predicting Stock Market Returns with Aggregate Discretionary Accruals

We find that the positive relation between aggregate accruals and one‐year‐ahead market returns documented in Hirshleifer, Hou, and Teoh [2009] is driven by discretionary accruals but not normal accruals. The return forecasting power of aggregate discretionary accruals is robust to choices of sample periods, return measurements, estimation methods, business condition and risk premium proxies, and accrual models used to isolate discretionary accruals. Our extensive analysis shows that aggregate discretionary accruals, in sharp contrast to aggregate normal accruals, contain little information about overall business conditions or aggregate cash flows and display little co‐movement with ICAPM‐motivated risk premium proxies. Our findings imply that aggregate discretionary accruals likely reflect aggregate fluctuations in earnings management, thereby favoring the behavioral explanation that managers time aggregate equity markets to report earnings.     

Incentive Contracting and Value Relevance of Earnings and Cash Flows

Accounting performance measures such as earnings and cash flows are useful for both valuation and performance evaluation purposes. However, little evidence exists on whether there is any association between these two roles. In this study, we provide large sample empirical evidence that the value relevance of earnings explains a significant amount of the cross‐sectional variation in the pay‐sensitivity of earnings and the incremental value relevance of cash flows explains variation in the marginal pay‐sensitivity of cash flows. We document that while both value relevance and compensation weight on earnings decline from the subperiod of 1993 to 1997 to the subperiod of 1998 to 2003, both value relevance and compensation weight on cash flows increase from the earlier subperiod to the later subperiod. Overall, our results provide additional evidence that value relevance of a performance measure plays a significant role in its use for performance evaluation.     

The nature of information in accruals and cash flows in an emerging capital market: The case of China

Our study investigates the relative and incremental information content of earnings, operating cash flows, and accruals in the emerging capital market of China. The issue is tested by regressing stock returns on the levels of earnings and their components. Based on a sample of 1516 firm-years for listed Chinese firms during 1995–1998, our results demonstrate that earnings have relative information content over operating cash flows. The autocorrelations and cross-sectional correlations also imply that earnings have greater persistence and predictability than operating cash flows. We also find that discretionary accruals provide incremental information beyond that contained in nondiscretionary accruals, consistent with the argument that discretionary accruals improve the relevance of earnings in reflecting the fundamental values of the listed Chinese firms. Unlike prior findings in the studies on developed markets, we find no strong evidence that the value attached to discretionary accruals is lower than the value attached to nondiscretionary accruals. This is consistent with the argument that managerial policy choices available for the listed Chinese firms were rather limited during our sample period under relatively uniform People's Republic of China Accounting Standards (PRC-GAAP), thus, producing fewer opportunities for earnings management. An alternative interpretation could be that Chinese investors are functionally fixated on earnings.     

The Role of Earnings and Book Values in Pricing Stocks: Evidence from Turkey

In this study, we examine factors associated with equity valuation in a newly emerging market, Turkey. In the United States and other developed countries, research indicates that both earnings and book value are important predictors of equity valuation. In Turkey, earnings appears to have information content but earnings, by itself, appears to be declining in importance over time. Book value adjusted for inflation has a stronger association with equity values. In the inflationary and risky environment of Turkey, where future value of earnings is quite uncertain, investors may be paying less attention to earnings and more attention to book values. With respect to the role of book value there are competing explanations. While some researchers conclude that it is only important because it is a control for scale differences, (Barth & Kallapur 1996) others conclude that it is relevant as a proxy for normal earnings (Ohlson, 1995). Still others conclude that it is only relevant in the valuation of loss making and generally unsuccessful firms (Berger, Ofek & Swary 1996; urgstahler & Dichev, 1997). The additional contribution of this study is to show that book value is also important as a value proxy for firms operating in environments where there is rampant inflation. Our study also indicates that, overall, earnings and inflation-adjusted book values combined virtually explain almost 75% of the variation in equity prices in Turkey.