Eine Bewertung verschiedener Kapazitätsmechanismen für den deutschen Strommarkt

This article examines the economic impacts of an implementation of different capacity mechanisms in the German market for electricity. We discuss selective mechanisms that address only newly installed capacity, as well as global mechanisms. Whenever appropriate, we give examples from international experience. We show that global mechanisms—contrary to selective mechanisms—can incentivize efficient investment decisions. However, due to the regulatory intensity of such mechanisms we advise not to take such measures unless a clear need is indicated.     

Kurzfristige Kehrtwende bei der Beschaffung neu zu errichtender Anlagen für die Netzreserve in Deutschland

Shortly before the decision of the Electricity Market Law on June 22, 2016 took place, the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) changed its mind with respect to the procurement of new power plants for the German grid reserve. Other than originally planned, this is no longer organized via a competitive bidding process. Instead, the responsibility for the procurement will be transferred to the transmission system operators, which therefore face the challenge of implementing an appropriate procurement mechanism. This paper presents an economic explanation for this short-term change. Our analysis reveals that the proposed transfer of the concept for the procurement of spare capacity to the procurement of the grid reserve was not appropriate. The bidders would have been exposed to significant risks, in particular due to high cost and calculation uncertainties, which are also critical with respect to the achievement of the objectives of the grid reserve. Therefore, we consider the decision of refusing the original procurement concept as the right step, although we consider a competitive procedure advantageous. However, such a procedure has to take the special requirements of the grid reserve into account. Yet this problem remains even after the transfer of responsibility from the BMWi to the transmission system operators.     

Multikriterielles Entscheidungsmodell für Anpassungsmaßnahmen am Beispiel der L/H-Gas-Umstellung in Deutschland

The German gas supply system is separated into two networks: one for high-calorific gas (H-gas) and one for low-calorific gas (L-gas). In particular, the L-gas volume is declining significantly, which means that there will be problems in security of supply in near future. This paper highlights the most important aspects that have to be considered when adjusting the German gas network to the future decline of L-gas production. First, the article discusses different possible adjustment options: (1) adjustment of market areas from low-calorific gas supply to high-calorific gas supply, (2) blending facilities (conversion of high calorific gas using nitrogen or air) and (3) the combination of both options. Subsequently, the authors outline the necessary planning process that must precede any adjustment option. The so-called network differentiation is followed by the network modeling: Using the net present value method and taking into account certain constraints, the authors define a simple optimization problem to determine the most economical investment and adjustment times for each option. Based on first model considerations it can be concluded that the implementation of adjustment options should be delayed as long as possible without compromising the security of supply. Nevertheless, an early start of the planning process is mandatory to ensure that adjustment options can be established in due time before an L-gas supply deficit occurs. The question, which adjustment option should be chosen, cannot be answered universally. It depends on the conditions and structure of the network as well as the structure of the final consumers.     

Stromspeicher für die „Energiewende“ – eine akteursbasierte Analyse der zusätzlichen Speicherkosten

Political targets for implementing the German “energy turnaround” aiming at the ambitious extension of renewable energies to generate electricity. However, a majority of the renewable supply is provided by intermittent sources, e.g. wind and solar power. For balancing the increasing supply fluctuations additional storage options are claimed beside of an enforced grid infrastructure and a more flexible demand side. Despite of the political guidelines the economics of additional flexibility measures has to be considered. For this paper we analyse the costs of large scale stationary battery storages to be operated in wholesale markets and transmission grid level. By deriving a key figure based on a life-cycle cost approach, we are able to evaluate the additional costs of electricity of selected battery technologies (lead-acid, lithium ion, sodium sulphur, redox-flow). Moreover, current and valid parameters of the cost analysis are received by scientific and industrial stakeholders of battery systems via online survey and face-to-face interviews. According to the stakeholder estimation a nationwide operation of stationary battery storages will be established at wholesale and transmission grid level until the year 2030. The life-cycle cost analysis, which also includes estimated future cost reductions, shows that lead-acid batteries remain the cost-efficient technology, assuming about 100 storage cycles p.a. In addition, a sensitivity analysis reveals the impact of increasing annual storage cycles as well as the achievable cost reduction by economies-of-scales of the power unit of the storage system.     

Techno-ökonomische Bewertung von Energie-Autarkie für die Energieversorgung von Einfamilienhäusern

Many consumers currently follow the idea of energy self-sufficiency and try to contribute to meet their energy needs in order to become independent and self-sufficient from the central power supply system. In order to achieve load-oriented energy self-sufficiency the provision of energy must cover the full energy demand at any time. Against this background, in this paper the costs and potentials of a load-oriented energy self-sufficiency of single-family homes are analysed. Thereby it is differentiated between electricity-, heat- and energy self-sufficiency. The modelling is carried out with the simulation environment ?Polysun Designer“ which allows a high temporal dynamic simulation of the annual energy demand and supply.The results show that, within the investigated supply variations, the highest levels of energy self-sufficiency can be achieved by an energy supply system completely based on electricity using a combination of PV; heat pump and battery storage. Depending on the building standard, a maximum of 45 (existing buildings) and 71?% (new buildings) of the building’s energy demand can be covered with renewable energy. The economic evaluation however has shown that under present conditions, none of the investigated supply variants can compete with conventional energy supply (public grid connection + gas condensing boiler).     

Das neue System für Regel- und Ausgleichsenergie Gas in Deutschland — Eine Untersuchung der Anreizwirkungen

With its decision on the determination of balancing services (GABi Gas), the Bundesnetzagentur has set up a new regime for system and balancing energy valid from October 2008. Aims are a simplification of balancing rules for traders, a more efficient use of existing flexibility instruments by network operators, and the creation of a functioning market for system and balancing energy. After half a year, the effects on traders and network operators can be analyzed. This study identifies positive and negative incentive effects of the new rules and proposes possible amendments. Among these are: abolishing the differentiation between internal and external system energy, creating incentives for efficient use of the networks’ buffering capacity, standardizing the rules for procurement of system energy, and introducing a pure hourly balancing system. Regulation creates a framework for functioning markets. Yet, competition cannot be enforced. Therefore, sensibility for the incentive effects of regulatory frameworks is needed.     

Determinanten der Strom-und Gaspreisentwicklung in Deutschland — Eine empirische Bestandsaufnahme für die Jahre 1998 bis 2007

The price worthy supply of energy is an indispensable requirement for growth and employment in highly industrialized countries as Germany. For energy intensive production processes — with limited opportunities to accomplish efficiency gains or substitute fuel — energy prices and costs are important determinants for competitiveness. But the other manufacturing sectors and households too, are affected by these high energy costs respectively expenditures, which result in real production losses or correspondingly in cutting back expenditures for non-energetic consumer goods. In view of the strongly increased level of energy prices — the price for crude oil hit the historic peak of $121 per barrel in May 2008 — especially grid bound energy sources as electricity and gas are in focus of the public. A recent study of the EEFA research institute illustrates the determinants of the development of electricity and gas prices in Germany from 1998 to 2007.     

Marktkonzentration und Marktmachtanalyse für den deutschen Regelenergiemarkt

We analyze the German market for tertiary electricity reserves in 2008. The cost of tertiary reserves of about €200 million accounted for 15% of the total cost of system services. The aim of the paper is to analyze the market structure to reveal possible opportunities for the execution of market power. To do so, we apply various concentration measures for the total market, as well as for all submarkets (i.e., different time frames, positive and negative reserves). We analyze: market shares, Herfindahl-Hirschman-Index, Pivotal Supplier Index (PSI) and the Residual Supply Index (RSI). Based on all concentration indicators, we find that all submarkets are best characterized as tight oligopolies with a (competitive) fringe. The four largest companies always qualify as being jointly dominant according to German competition law. The role of the fringe firms is, however, not negligible, in particular not for positive reserves. Strongest indication for market power is found for negative reserves from 0–8 a.m. Our analysis highlights that relying on single concentration indicators (e.g., market shares) can be misleading. It is sensible and often necessary to consider the full set of indicators.     

Empfehlungen für das Auktionsdesign für Emissionsberechtigungen

From an economic perspective, auctions are an appropriate mechanism for the initial allocation of emissions allowances, because they tend to be advantageous with respect to distributional and efficiency goals. Different auction designs can lead to different outcomes, though, and so the choice of the auction rules is a critical challenge. Recent developments in auction theory and rich experiences with practical auction design in the energy and many other sectors can help avoiding mistakes and designing an appropriate auction mechanism. This study summarizes the relevant research and concludes with concrete recommendations for the auction design for CO₂ allowances. In particular, it analyzes how the strategic options of buyers and sellers depend on the auction rules, and explains how secondary markets for allowances interact with bidding strategies and optimal institutional design.     

Start der Diskussion zur Ausgestaltung des künftigen Regel- und Ausgleichsenergiesystems für den deutschen Gasmarkt

Whilst the conditions for access to the German gas networks have been largely defined the rules for balancing and imbalance pricing are still intransparent and inconsistent. Following the recent publication of a study on behalf of the German regulator in November 2007 the German gas industry has now entered into official discussions about the future organisation of balancing mechanisms for the German gas market, with the aim of ensuring non-discriminatory network access. The objective of this study was to create a comprehensive basis for discussion and to suggest both a market-based model for the procurement of balancing energy by network operators and the non-discriminatory and transparent pricing of imbalances on the shippers’ side, taking account of the specific conditions of the German gas market. This paper explains the options that are currently discussed, provides relevant background and summarises the status quo.     

Techno-?konomische Bewertung eines ver?nderten Zuschnitts von Marktgebieten für elektrische Energie in Mitteleuropa

As a consequence of the paradigm shift in terms of the European Union??s or at least not 20/20/20 energy policy, the liberalization of the German electricity market and the German nuclear energy phase-out, power generation is often still located far from the main load centers. Hence the frequency of grid congestions is expected to rise. These congestions cannot, or not cost-efficiently, be handled with conventional congestion management methods. One approach to solve the problem is the modification of market areas via the splitting or the coupling of existing areas. This study quantitatively and qualitatively deals with the economic impacts of alternative market area definitions in Central Europe. Furthermore, our analysis puts a special emphasis on the implications of the nuclear energy phase-out in Germany in this context. Simulated power generation- and network costs are used for measuring the relative merit of the market zoning adopted. The study identifies three main scenarios as alternatives to the existing market areas: Based on an inter-German separation, for a more detailed examination (1) Austria is detached from southern Germany, (2) the Dutch market area is merged with the northern German zone and (3) the Swiss market area is integrated with the southern German zone and Austria. The implemented simulations show a distinctive trend towards economic advantages regarding alternative market areas in Central Europe. In case of a splitting of existing areas, network costs are the key factor for reducing total costs, whereas for the coupling of markets power generation costs are more crucial. Regarding the nuclear energy phase-out, the achievable cost savings are lower but still positive.     

Ökonomische Bewertung des Repowering von Onshore-Windenergieanlagen in Deutschland

Wind power takes a leading role among the renewable energy sources. Whereas in offshore wind power utilization large technical challenges still need to be tackled for commercial exploitation, the replacement of obsolete plants (repowering) in the onshore sector provides an interesting alternative. This paper first provides an overview of the technical, legal and social development concerning wind power utilization in general, and repowering in particular, in Germany. In a next step, by means of model-based analysis, the technical potential for wind power by means of repowering is determined. The theoretical potential is valuated against social aspects. Due to the large heterogeneity of candidate sites for repowering, general potential studies are not suitable for concrete investment decisions. Instead, a detailed economic feasibility study is required. In our study, we performed scenario analysis, also taking into account the repowering-specific risks. The parameter values varied are those for the quality of the site, the size of the wind park, and the age of the wind turbines to be replaced. Finally, we discuss the results and provide an outlook on the development of repowering in light of the novelized EEG. We find that, until now, the repowering potential could not be fully exploited. An intensified realization of repowering projects in the coming years can be expected, due to the technical potential, simplifications in the commissioning process, rising acceptance on the side of the communities due to changes in the tax legislation and, above all, thanks to the incentives for almost all onshore wind parks.     

Bereitstellung von Regelleistung durch Elektrofahrzeuge: Modellrechnungen für Deutschland im Jahr 2035

The German government has set ambitious goals for both the expansion of renewable energy supply and electromobility. According to its Energiewende policy, electricity supply from fluctuating renewables is supposed to further increase considerably. This will tend to require a greater provision of balancing reserves. At the same time, supply from conventional dispatchable plants, which used to provide the bulk of reserves, will decrease. Against this background, this article analyzes the scope for an assumed fleet of 4.4 million electric vehicles to supply balancing reserves in 2035. Examining two different future power plant scenarios, it explores the potentials of reserve provision with and without the option of feeding electricity from vehicle batteries back to the grid. Results from an extended open-source power system simulation model show that the assumed vehicle fleet can efficiently provide a substantial share of reserve requirements, also in case the vehicle-to-grid option is not available. Arbitrage on wholesale markets, on the other hand, is negligible under basic assumptions. Likewise, total system cost savings are minor when compared to a pure cost-optimal loading of vehicle batteries. Under alternative assumptions on the future power plant portfolio as well as on battery degradation costs, however, wholesale arbitrage, reserve provision, and system cost savings can be substantial.     

Sektorale und gesamtwirtschaftliche Beurteilung des „Carbon-Leakage”-Problems für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland

In order to mitigate the global warming issue, the European Commission decided To reduce carbon dioxide emissions in Europe by 2020 by 20% (compared to 1990). This translates into an overall reduction of 1.1 billion tons. The most important Reduction tool in its policy arsenal is the Emission-Trading System (ETS). All ETS industries together are supposed to reduce their CO₂ emissions by 421 million tons or 21 % (compared to 2005). With a planned reduction of 421 million tons of CO₂, Germany’s ETS industries bear almost a quarter of the Overall reduction burden. The associated carbon leakage problem is only to some extent attributed to the climate protection targets. The planned adjustment of the major allocation mechanism in the third trading phase weights considerably more. In the third trading phase the free provision of benchmark-related emission permits will be replaced with a market-price auction system. A current study of the EEFA-Research Institute examines the effects of auctioning on compatibility, production and employment in Germany.     

Induktives Laden von Elektromobilen – Eine techno-ökonomische Bewertung

Conductive (wired) charging, where the user has to plug or unplug a cable, dominates the concepts discussed for electric vehicles up to now. Apart from the reduced range of the electric vehicle, frequent charging and especially short charging times make this plugging and unplugging appear impractical. In contrast, inductive (wireless) energy transfer makes it possible to charge without user intervention. This article attempts to answer questions on whether inductive energy transfer can already be used to charge electric vehicles and where this represents an economically attractive solution for users. To do so, first the charging technologies are presented and contrasted. It is also possible to compare the two charging technologies economically based on a cost analysis. It can be shown that no widespread use of the inductive technology is to be expected for the time being from an economic point of view due to its significant extra costs. Under certain conditions, however, there is a limited field of application as a niche technology in certain commercial areas, such as taxis, for example.     

Staatliche Regulierung und Digitalisierung als Antezedenzien für Innovationen in der Energiewirtschaft am Beispiel von REMIT

Probably no other industry is as affected by governmental interventions via regulation and their respective directives as is the energy industry. On the one hand, firms must deal with a considerable amount of resources bound in order to satisfy consequential challenges. On the other hand, a variety of chances are offered due to the phenomenon of strict regulation often fostering innovation. In addition, digitization has heavily influenced the energy industry among many others in several ways. Digitization has not only enabled new business model innovation, but also incorporated it in itself. Unfortunately, the circle of beneficiaries remained limited in the beginning, because many foremost municipal utilities do not possess enough capacities to exploit these chances. Nonetheless, as our case study of REMIT highlights established utilities were able to utilize this new market in form of business model innovation. Therefore our case serves as a blueprint for innovation management driven by regulation and digitization alike.     

Dynamische Berechnung der Stromgestehungskosten von Energiespeichern für die Energiesystemmodellierung und -einsatzplanung

Due to the transition in energy supply from fossil to renewable energy sources, energy storage systems are getting more and more important for the security of power supply. Therefore also the modeling of those storage systems in energy system modeling needs to be further discussed. This paper focuses on the levelized costs of energy storage. In the beginning, the existing approaches of calculating those costs are analyzed in a literature review. It will be shown that all of the approaches calculate the levelized costs on the basis of the energy storages’ lifetime. For the usage in energy system modeling it is mandatory that the calculation can be done for variable and shorter time periods. Therefore this work’s approach calculates the costs based on the time of operation in any period chosen. Additionally, the model can be used for any type of storage system. After introducing the mathematical model, the levelized costs of energy storage will be calculated to illustrate the models properties and then verified with reference load profiles for five different energy storage types. Following this, particular input parameters are varied and sensitivities are pointed out. Most of the programs for power plant dispatch calculations use linear or mixed integer linear programing algorithms. As the calculation of levelized costs of electricity is non-linear, most programs use fixed values during the whole time of simulation. In this article the integration of the presented approach into a linear optimization program via recursive and shifted calculation is elaborated. Results are presented and discussed.     

Das Glühbirnendekret der EU – ein unnötiges Verbot

Since September 2009, the European market for household lamps is subject to EU regulation 244/2009, which enforces the gradual phase-out of incandescent light bulbs. As of September 2012, only energy-efficient lighting sources such as halogen lamps, light-emitting diodes (LED), or compact fluorescent lamps—often referred to as energy-saving lamps—will be allowed for sale. The EU’s justification for the phase-out of conventional light bulbs maintains that a reduction in the electricity consumed will not only lead to lower energy costs for private households and industrial consumers, but at the same time lead to a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions. This article discusses possible reasons for the slow market diffusion of energy-saving lamps and shows that the investment in energy-efficient lamps does not necessarily lead to significant cost reductions in every case. Drawing on some illustrative examples, we demonstrate that the use of cheaper incandescent bulbs instead of energy-saving lamps can be economically rational in cases of rather low usage times, in which the higher initial purchasing price might only pay off after very long time spans. Furthermore, due to the coexistence with the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), this regulation will not lead to any additional reduction of carbon emissions exceeding the amount caused by the ETS. We thus conclude that the general ban of incandescent light bulbs is inappropriate and should be abolished by the Commission.