Bedeutung von CO2-Transport- und Speicheroptionen im europäischen Energiesystem

Aiming the stabilisation of the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere at 450 ppm, a strong climate policy in the EU-27 will be required. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and the building up of a CO₂ pipeline system will be one option to avoid climate change. The analysis of the potential CO₂ storage options in Europe shows a huge potential in the North Sea and their neighbouring countries and only less potentials in the southern European countries. A scenario analysis using the European energy system model TIMES PanEU shows that the installation of CO₂ transport pipelines for cross boarder exchange of CO₂ from power plants located next to the boarder could be one possible infrastructure solution. This solution is a cost efficient option which will be used mainly by the North Sea neighbouring countries (Germany, UK, the Netherlands, Denmark) and Poland. A central pipeline grid in the North Sea for the usage of huge storage options like the Utsira formation will be important in the future for countries with limited CO₂ storage capacities (like Belgium or the Netherlands). If cheap storage options like onshore Aquifers are not available, the design of central CO₂ pipeline grids has a strong impact on the power plant structure, the electricity and CO₂ certificate price. Based on a limited availability of onshore CO₂ storages the electricity price will increase by up to 16 € 2007/MWh and the CO₂-certificate price will rise by additional 35 € 2007/t CO₂ in 2050.     

Zur Analyse der Auswirkungen der Biomethaneinspeisung auf die Entwicklung der deutschen Erdgasversorgung

Natural gas offers several advantages compared to other fossil fuels, especially regarding its specific CO₂ emissions and its flexibility in usage. Thus, it is expected that the consumption of natural gas will further increase in the future. Nevertheless, this increase is accompanied by a growing dependence on imports. Biomethane, i.e. conditioned biogenous gas, is an interesting possibility for the substitution of natural gas. As it is a renewable and indigenous energy source, it contributes to the reduction of both: CO₂ emissions and gas imports. Similar to the renewable electricity generation, the German government sets targets for the biomethane feed-in and has introduced promotion mechanisms to achieve these goals. Within this paper the possible role of biomethane in the German natural gas supply has been evaluated by applying the optimising energy flow model PERSEUS-EEM. Results show that the CO₂ emissions trading system by itself is not sufficient for the competitiveness of biomethane. Model results demonstrate that a significant increase of the German natural gas demand can be expected especially due to the stringent CO₂ reduction targets. Even when the political CO₂-reduction targets are reached, biomethane will not play a major role in the natural gas supply of Germany.     

Multidimensionales Verfahren zur Bestimmung des Regelleistungsbedarfes unter Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheiten

One of the most crucial constraints in operation of electrical power supply systems is the permanent balance between generation and load. Reserve power is held ready to be able to keep this balance also in case of the occurrence of unpredictable events like power plant outages or inevitable deviations of power injections from their predicted values. At this, the allocation of operating reserves is in the field of conflict between level of reliability and cost effectiveness. The amount of reserve generation capacity required in a control area heavily depends on prediction quality which constitutes the need for high quality predictions. This article is about the influence of prediction quality on the amount of reserve generation capacity required in a control area. The algorithms for the assessment of required reserve generation capacity known from literature use the variation calculus technique to account for the aforementioned unpredictable events and prediction errors. In this article, an extension to a convolution-based method is presented in which the uncertainties of the predictions are expressed using intervals. Each parameter is represented by an independent dimension, assuming statistical independence among them. This allows the distinct analysis of each parameter’s influence on the amount of required reserve generation capacity. In addition, two methods for the visualization of the multi-dimensional results are presented, allowing a comprehensive analysis of the parameters’ influences. Standard distribution functions are used to represent the parameters for the simulation and the results are shown as probability density functions of possible imbalances. Based on forecasts of the development of conventional power plants and regenerative generation in the years 2020, 2030 and 2040, the required control power of the future German transmission system is calculated. Influences and dependencies are identified with the extended convolution-based method.     

Modellgestützte Bewertung des Kraft-Wärme-Kopplungsgesetzes 2016 anhand ausgewählter Anwendungsfälle in Wohngebäuden

Cogeneration is a promising technology in the energy transition amongst other things in view of its energy efficiency and its broad applicability in the household, tertiary and industry sectors. For the promotion of cogeneration technologies, support schemes are in place in German energy policy. Amongst other things the Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Act serves as the main instrument for the promotion since 2002. In the new version of the CHP Act of 2016 the German Federal Government strives towards a more market-oriented design resulting in significant amendments featuring inter alia a highly case-dependent tariff design with modified levels and durations of remuneration. It is therefore the aim of the present study to assess these modifications with respect to technical, economic and ecological aspects in a model-based approach by means of selected use cases at different levels of spatial aggregation for residential buildings. Results point to an economic advantageousness for cases of the medium energy consumption level (streets and blocks of houses) under the new regime as well as the reversal of this attractiveness for objects of high consumption (neighbourhoods, districts). Particularly, CHP plants tend be dimensioned comparatively smaller with a greater number of full-load hours under the new regime. Furthermore, implications with regard to technical and ecological aspects are shown in this contribution.     

Ein Vergleich ausgewählter europäischer Strombörsen

We study the rules of selected european energy exchanges and compare their institutional design. In most countries (except for the UK) a uniform price mechanism is used. The rules differ, however, in the possibilities to express complementary cost components in the bids. Also the degree of international coupling of markets is very different across countries. Our comparison of the markets allows to identify attractive trading rules and yields insights on an effective electricity market design.     

Environmental Tax Reform in the European Union: Impact on CO2 Emissions and the Economy

Economic instruments in environmental policy try to correct prices in order to internalise externalities. The environmental tax reform is a specific policy approach, which raises taxation of ‘bads’ such as resource use or emissions and reduces other taxes on ‘goods’ such as labour that are felt as a burden so that the total tax revenue remains constant. On a small scale some European countries introduced this instrument, and the results have been evaluated broadly positive by the literature. The paper at hand gives answers to the question, what might happen to CO₂ emissions and the economy, if this instrument would be used in all European countries in a scale that allows reaching the European CO₂ emission targets. The instrument of the analysis is the global economy-energy-environment model GINFORS. The simulation results show that the targets can be met with only small losses in GDP and gains in employment.     

Can Lignite Take a Back Seat?

Transmission grid extension is a central aspect of the future energy system transition in Germany. This stems from the diverging occurrence of renewable energy feed-in and consumption as well as the targeted nuclear and currently discussed carbon phase-outs. After realizing the retirement of the domestic nuclear energy fleet by 2022, a next policy objective could be the phase-out of domestic lignite generation. The German electricity grid was not designed to accommodate these emerging challenges. Hence, the following paper addresses the impact of decommissioning lignite power plants on the most cost-effective grid extensions by 2030. To determine the optimal transmission grid design, efficient methods for techno-economic analysis are required. The challenge of conducting an analysis of grid extensions involves lumpy investment decisions and the non-linear character of several restrictions in a real-data environment. The following paper introduces the application of the Benders Decomposition, dividing the problem into an extension and a dispatch problem to reduce the degree of computational complexity. The results show that lignite phase-out can significantly increase the number of grid extensions in Germany. All scenarios simulating a lignite phase-out by 2030 lead to higher overall system costs but lower CO\({}_{2}\) emissions.     

Versorgungssicherheit auf Elektrizitätsmärkten — Investitionsdilemma durch ineffizientes Marktdesign?

This article addresses the investment dilemma in the area of power generation, which in insufficiently designed, liberalized power markets leads macroeconomically to undesirably low levels of energy supply security. The prime causes for this dilemma in the German power market are rooted first in damages for suppliers which are limited in cases of generation capacity-induced power failures and second in the time delay between the final trading opportunity and the actual power delivery. The latter inhibits the ability to individually balance unexpected changes in rates of power generation and discharge at any time. Furthermore, the following factors contribute to an intensification of the dilemma: insufficient end user participation in the wholesale market, a lack of single end user cut-off options, as well as time lags in the construction of generation capacities combined with various market uncertainties. Potential approaches to a sustainable improvement of supply security include on the one hand an increase in liquidity of intraday trading to align market clearing and power delivery as closely as possible. The promotion of direct marketing for renewable energy along with other strategies will lead to such an improvement. On the other hand, end users’ utilization of smart meters should be enhanced. Thus, peak load could be moderated and allows for the inclusion of end users’ willingness to pay into the wholesale market.     

Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Photovoltaik im deutschen Energiemix – Neudefinition des Ansatzes der Netzparität

Photovoltaics are one of the fastest growing energy sources in the world. Despite high costs and a limited energy yield, attractive support schemes particularly the German renewable energy law have paved the way for the strong market growth of this technology within the last decade. Here the question arises as to when photovoltaics will reach a competitive level in Germany without the support of subsidies. The prominent grid parity approach is simple and considered critical in this discussion. It is critical because of the different references regarding the costs of electricity generated by a newly installed PV system and the electricity price of private households, which consists of electricity generation, distribution, sales as well as taxes and duties on the one hand. On the other hand, there are different time references in the calculation of electricity generation costs and electricity prices of private households. Transferring the approach of Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE) to all power generation plants within the energy mix means a redefinition of the grid parity of photovoltaics will be carried out. Here the electricity generation costs of photovoltaics as well as the energy mix will be calculated in the same way. The LCOE calculation refers to the whole life cycle of every power generation plant. That is why a balance between the high investment costs of photovoltaics and the increasing operation costs of fossil fuelled power plants is made. It can be shown that the reaching of competitiveness of photovoltaics in Germany depends on structural changes in electricity generation and it is to be realized within the anticipated time frame until the year 2020.     

Portfoliomanagement: Optimale Energiebeschaffung unter Berücksichtigung von Risiken

In the past, Energy Utility Companies (EUC) in Germany bought their electricity demand with a strategy that used planned sales volumes as control factor for procurement. However, this approach has the disadvantage that the open position defined as the difference between electricity sold to the customer and electricity bought at the wholesale market is not monitored. Thus, the price risk is measured incorrectly. To avoid these unnecessary risks, we propose that optimal portfolio management in liberalised energy markets should constantly monitor electricity sales volumes and electricity bought. This approach has the advantage that the open position and thus the price risk can be computed continuously and can thus be managed and monitored. However, higher data requirements have to be fulfilled when this strategy is applied. Nonetheless, the process is manageable with modern IT-systems. The main ideas in this paper can be transferred to the gas market.     

Energiewende: Alles eine Frage der Partizipation? Governance-Herausforderungen zwischen Zentralität und Dezentralität

The interaction of centralised and decentralised elements is not only a challenge for the technical und functional implementation of the energy transition, but also for the political and social assignment of developing adequate governance strategies for future energy systems. While “participation” is of capital importance for all governance approaches mediating centralising and decentralising trends, it is far from clear, how participation is to be realized in order to promote energy transition and avoiding pitfalls and flaws of participative decision making processes. Against the backdrop of a multi-dimensional understanding of “participation” comprising procedural, factual, legitimatory and meta-reflective functions, the paper considers the tense relations of participation and efficiency, legitimacy and professionalized expertise, thereby identifying structural challenges for participation in democratic societies. Finally, some suggestions are made, how the governance of the energy transition can be shaped in the future.     

Design von Informationsfeedback in Regelenergiemärkten

Information feedback is a much debated issue on balancing power markets: which information on past auctions should be published and when? The article analyzes advantages and disadvantages of different feedback policies applied to the example of the Swiss balancing power market. Our main conclusion is that the publication of the marginal bid is usually recommendable. This is often not the case for additional information (e.g. extramarginal bids). However, the answer depends on the specific market design and the market structure.     

Quantifizierung und Systematisierung der technischen und verhaltensbedingten Stromeinsparpotenziale der deutschen Privathaushalte

Electricity consumption in German households accounts for more than 10 % of energy-related CO₂ emissions. In spite of substantial improvements in, for example, the efficiency of household appliances, there is still a considerable electricity savings potential to be tapped in this sector. The possible contribution that the German residential sector can make to climate protection is correspondingly large. This paper aims to structure and quantify electricity savings potentials which could be exploited in German households either through investment measures or changed user behaviour. The total theoretical potential which can be tapped through the purchase of efficient household appliances and the replacement of electrical heaters and hot water generators (i.e. by encouraging investment) amounts to approx. 90 TWh/a. This corresponds to more than 60 % of the current electricity demand of all German households. By means of changed user behaviour, approx. 30 TWh of electricity could be saved according to our calculations. These results presented in this article were reached within the scope of the TRANSPOSE interdisciplinary research project (http://www.uni-muenster.de/Transpose/, the complete analysis can be downloaded at http://www.uni-muenster.de/imperia/md/content/transpose/publikationen/buerger_working_paper_3.pdf). This project is funded within the framework of the ‘Social-ecological Research’ programme of the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research.     

Energy Costs in Germany—Developments, Drivers and International Comparison

This article summarises results a study undertaken by Frontier Economics and the EWI for the German Ministry of Economics. The study makes progress in creating transparency of energy supply prices and cost (for electricity, gas and oil products) in Germany in an international context. In Germany most retail prices have increased significantly since 1998 and are at the highest level for most customer groups and products in international comparison. Main drivers that differentiate prices internationally are, duties and taxes, network tariffs, political interference with retail prices and the degree of end customer competition. Based on this analysis the authors recommend a review of the consistency of policy measures (especially taxes, duties, levies and subsidies) with the energy policy goals of price competitiveness, security of supply and environmental sustainability. Furthermore, the authors suggest further refining network regulation, enhancing competition in the retail sector and improving transparency of price information.     

Potential für Kraftwerke mit Kohlendioxidrückhaltung aus Systemperspektive

System considerations support a discussion of selected factors influencing the economic viability of power plants with CO₂ sequestration technology (CCS, for carbon dioxide capture and storage), leading to conclusions when and how much of their potential may conceivably be realised. The CCS realisation is interconnected to investments into other technologies, to technological advances, to the price of CO₂ emission certificates, to plant dispatch, and to the prices of power. In a system of CCS potential realisation by individual actors, these variables are endogenous. This article is mainly about them. CCS is more of a long term option than a bridge technology. In contrast to other CO₂ reduction technologies, both economic operation and economic investment necessarily require high CO₂ certificate prices. An increase in power plant efficiency without CCS, switching to natural gas and power generation from renewable sources involve more mature technologies that may benefit from further application within the coming decades. Even far beyond 2020 this effect may delay and dampen the potential of CCS technology. An economic or market potential is dependent to a lesser extent on assumptions about future barriers but rather on their dynamic interactions.     

Suffizienzorientierte Geschäftsmodelle am Beispiel von Stromspeichern

Business models are essential tools for understanding and creating the logic of a company’s business including all relevant stakeholders’ activities. Despite the knowledge of the organic-systematic interdependencies from companies with other stakeholders, business models of the energy economy primarily aim to transfer their value propositions via revenue streams into economical value. This article provides solutions for theoretical and practical extensions of business models for energy storaging to ensure they are sustainable in the future. Sufficiency-oriented energy storage business models are described as a sustainable framework.     

Regulierung, Effizienz und das Anreizdilemma bei Investitionen in intelligente Netze

In this paper, we survey from a theoretical point of view to what extend cost-based and incentive-based regulatory regimes stimulate investments. For the purpose of this analysis, we furthermore differentiate by different efficiency measures, i.e. allocative efficiency, productive efficiency and dynamic efficiency and analyse to what extend each efficiency measure is stimulated by the regulatory regime. Eventually, we analyse to what extend regulatory incentives for network innovation in a smart grid context exist and to what extend different forms of regulation stimulate dynamic efficiency.     

Der Marktplatz E-Energy aus elektrizitätswirtschaftlicher Perspektive

The E-Energy Market is the place in a future energy system that integrates the markets for energy and Information/Communication Technologies (ICT). From the economic perspective of electricity, business models and business cases can already be developed for sub-markets and sub-areas of network load management, wholesale marketing and energy-market regulations, which as core elements manage consumer load in the mass customer area. As it turns out, the expected surplus value for all business cases is still tightly assessed and the E-Energy Market is therefore no automatic process. It has been assumed that the costs of the necessary information and communication technologies either do not have to be observed or are relatively insignificant. Additionally, considerable fine-tuning of the design of the sub-markets and the regulatory framework is necessary in order to enable the possibility for the business cases to be implemented. In a larger perspective, however, this market will play an important role when it comes to optimizing the power system around fluctuating power generation.     

CO2-Einsparpotenziale des Energieträgers Erdgas

Given the governmental climate targets, the question arises how these targets can be achieved without affecting a secure and cheap energy supply. As natural gas causes less carbon emissions than any other fossil fuel it might be able to make a contribution in this regard. Currently, in the generation of heat and power natural gas plays a significant role, which will further increase in the future. Using several scenarios, we predict the development of the importance of natural gas and the consequences for carbon emissions. The calculations show that the share of natural gas for the supply of heat will increase from 46 % to 56 %. Efficiency increases together with changes in the structure of power generation can reduce heating-related carbon emissions by 8.3 % until 2020. For power generation, we calculate alternative scenarios. If the current structure of power generation is held constant, carbon emissions will increase by 0.8 % p.a. If instead natural gas completely replaces coal and lignite, the carbon emissions will be reduced by 1.9 % per year.