Zur Analyse der Auswirkungen der Biomethaneinspeisung auf die Entwicklung der deutschen Erdgasversorgung

Natural gas offers several advantages compared to other fossil fuels, especially regarding its specific CO₂ emissions and its flexibility in usage. Thus, it is expected that the consumption of natural gas will further increase in the future. Nevertheless, this increase is accompanied by a growing dependence on imports. Biomethane, i.e. conditioned biogenous gas, is an interesting possibility for the substitution of natural gas. As it is a renewable and indigenous energy source, it contributes to the reduction of both: CO₂ emissions and gas imports. Similar to the renewable electricity generation, the German government sets targets for the biomethane feed-in and has introduced promotion mechanisms to achieve these goals. Within this paper the possible role of biomethane in the German natural gas supply has been evaluated by applying the optimising energy flow model PERSEUS-EEM. Results show that the CO₂ emissions trading system by itself is not sufficient for the competitiveness of biomethane. Model results demonstrate that a significant increase of the German natural gas demand can be expected especially due to the stringent CO₂ reduction targets. Even when the political CO₂-reduction targets are reached, biomethane will not play a major role in the natural gas supply of Germany.     

Klimawandel: Wahrnehmung und Einschätzungen der deutschen Haushalte im Herbst 2012

This article presents results that are obtained from a survey among private households in Germany, which took place in the fall of 2012. A key result is that in comparison with a range of other global challenges, respondents are less concerned with fighting climate change, a remarkable outcome given that the share of climate change skeptics in the survey is likely to be lower than in the population owing to selfselection problems. This article addresses such self-selection problems, as well as other shortcomings of surveys, and provides for a discussion on how to cope with them.     

Marktkonzentration und Marktmachtanalyse für den deutschen Regelenergiemarkt

We analyze the German market for tertiary electricity reserves in 2008. The cost of tertiary reserves of about €200 million accounted for 15% of the total cost of system services. The aim of the paper is to analyze the market structure to reveal possible opportunities for the execution of market power. To do so, we apply various concentration measures for the total market, as well as for all submarkets (i.e., different time frames, positive and negative reserves). We analyze: market shares, Herfindahl-Hirschman-Index, Pivotal Supplier Index (PSI) and the Residual Supply Index (RSI). Based on all concentration indicators, we find that all submarkets are best characterized as tight oligopolies with a (competitive) fringe. The four largest companies always qualify as being jointly dominant according to German competition law. The role of the fringe firms is, however, not negligible, in particular not for positive reserves. Strongest indication for market power is found for negative reserves from 0–8 a.m. Our analysis highlights that relying on single concentration indicators (e.g., market shares) can be misleading. It is sensible and often necessary to consider the full set of indicators.     

Start der Diskussion zur Ausgestaltung des künftigen Regel- und Ausgleichsenergiesystems für den deutschen Gasmarkt

Whilst the conditions for access to the German gas networks have been largely defined the rules for balancing and imbalance pricing are still intransparent and inconsistent. Following the recent publication of a study on behalf of the German regulator in November 2007 the German gas industry has now entered into official discussions about the future organisation of balancing mechanisms for the German gas market, with the aim of ensuring non-discriminatory network access. The objective of this study was to create a comprehensive basis for discussion and to suggest both a market-based model for the procurement of balancing energy by network operators and the non-discriminatory and transparent pricing of imbalances on the shippers’ side, taking account of the specific conditions of the German gas market. This paper explains the options that are currently discussed, provides relevant background and summarises the status quo.     

Geothermisch erschlie?bare Niedertemperaturw?rmesenken in Deutschland – Identifikation und Quantifizierung

Geothermal energy supply meets the expectations of the established criterias for sustainability from the German government because it provides a base load of electricity- and heat supply by nearly zero emissions. The geothermal resources in Germany are big enough to cover a relevant demand of the German energy supply. Due to the low electrical efficiency is a high amount of heat produced what can be feed in a distribution network. In this context the aim of the following article is to identify and quantify the technical and economical low temperature heat demand for sector household, trade and industry in local authorities bigger then 20?000?inhabitants for German areas with geothermal recourses. The technical low temperature heat demand is calculated to 341?TWh/a (241?TWh/a household, 19?TWh/a trade, 81?TWh/a industry), 206?TWh/a of this heat demand is deducible by geothermal energy and 26?% of the geothermal deducible heat demand can be used on economic conditions.     

Auswirkungen der europäischen Energiepolitik auf den deutschen Atomausstieg

After the election of the new German government on September 27th, 2009, the nuclear power phase-out decision appears back on top of the political agenda. Hence, an up to date survey of all relevant arguments seems absolutely necessary. In that matter, the scope should not remain national but should also take the European dimension into account.On the European level, a position in favour of nuclear power becomes apparent. Recent political decisions among the 27 member states show a renaissance of atomic energy. EU-Parliament, EU-Commission and EU-Council have all voted for the extensive, long term use of nuclear power in Europe. With its phase-out decision still valid, Germany is part of a minority in Europe.Germany is part of a European market for electricity whose national barriers will blur more and more in the future to form a fully integrated pan-European market in the end. Since nuclear power will provide a major share of the European electricity generation mix, Germany will always be supplied with atomic energy in the long term. This is imperative, regardless of nuclear power plants operating within the borders of Germany or not. Shutting down these facilities in Germany will hence not make the risks associated with atomic energy disappear. It will only add energy-technical challenges to assure long-term supply security. Thus, the new German government should withdraw the phase-out decision.     

Ökonomische Chancen der deutschen Industrie resultierend aus einer weltweiten Verbreitung von CSP (Concentrated Solar Power)-Technologien

Numerous energy scenarios consider concentrated solar power (CSP) technologies as an important option for mitigating global CO2 emissions. A global deployment of CSP technologies would generate significant economic opportunities for German CSP technology providers. The presented paper analyses potential economic benefits resulting from a global ramp up of CSP until 2050 based on scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Greenpeace International. The analysis focuses on the economic opportunities of German technology providers which are among the leading international CSP market players.     

Potentiale und Risiken der Nutzung von Methan aus Methanhydraten als Energieträger

Marine and permafrost-based methane hydrates are the largest existing fossil carbon resource. Their broad geographic distribution, especially in comparison to oil and conventional gas, make them a promising future source of energy. However, there is a danger of forcing the greenhouse effect in the event of a release of methane into the atmosphere as well as causing the collapse of oceanic slope sediments. Also the technical difficulties in extracting methane from hydrates are not yet fully resolved. Nevertheless, research on methane hydrates has been forced both on political as well as economic considerations in recent years and methane hydrates have several practical advantages, which make them a transitional solution worth looking at on the way to a future renewable-based energy supply. However, the knowledge of the potentials and risks of methane hydrates is still very poor, especially in the German-speaking public, administration and policies. This deficiency hopefully will be eased by this overview dealing with the current state of research and an outlook based on the most important findings.     

„Collaborative Governance“ – ein neues Konzept für die Regulierung der europäischen Strom- und Gasmärkte?

Current British and American publications about the liberalization of electricity and gas markets demand a paradigm shift in the regulation of energy networks. These publications can be subsumed under the scientific debate about “collaborative governance” in the USA. They call for an integration of network users and consumers into the regulatory process. Their philosophy resembles the philosophy of the negotiated third party access in Germany from 1998 till 2005. Their regulatory strategy might be more effective than the actual European “command and control” strategy in establishing competitive energy markets. This article examines and evaluates these publications and their regulatory strategy.     

Grosse Stadtwerke – theoretische und empirische Exploration eines besonderen Akteurs in der Energiewende Deutschlands und der Schweiz

Urban utility companies are key players in the Swiss and German energy sector. Due to the federalist and subsidiary governance structure of the two countries’ energy sector, they perform highly system relevant tasks, as e.?g. managing the distribution grids or ensuring the public services for “their city”. In the public and scientific discourse on the role of different actor groups in the energy transition, however, not much attention is paid to urban utility companies. This contribution aims at a theoretical and empirical exploration of these particular actors by analysing their characteristics, specific challenges and strategic answers in the context of the energy transition. For this purpose, the article derives analytical dimensions for the analysis of urban utility companies from scholarly literature on transition studies, network industries and public corporate governance and empirically analyses characteristics and the current situation of urban utility companies in Germany and Switzerland. Methodologically, this article is based on an explorative, qualitative study, which synthesises results from a literature analysis, a document analysis, 38 expert interviews in both countries (in 2017) and two expert workshops conducted in Switzerland (in 2018). The study shows, how the characteristics of urban utility companies can be explained based on public corporate governance and network industries literature. This also allows to identify and understand their particular challenges, as e.?g. the fields of tension among public and private interest in the firms and the multi-dimensional relationship of owner or the particularities of network industries. Finally, this article points out, that the role of urban utility companies in the Swiss and German energy transition is neither just “inhibitor” nor pure “innovator”, but can be labelled as “intelligent follower” and “engineer of the energy transition”.     

Prognose der Day-Ahead Wind- und Photovoltaikstromerzeugung – Einflussgrößen und Zuverlässigkeit

In the future, the percentage of renewable energies in the electricity generation is expected to increase continuously. Especially weather-dependent wind and solar power plays a substantial role. These energy sources are partly characterized by a fluctuating and imprecisely predictable power generation. To cover the residual load and to balance the forecast errors a rising number of flexible producers and consumers will be needed in the future. This is necessary to ensure the high security of supply of the German electricity grid.Against this background, the objective of the following investigation is to analyse the day-ahead forecasting quality of the feed-in from wind and photovoltaic systems in the control areas of Germany’s transmission system operators and in the entire area of Germany for the years 2010 to 15. The aim of this analysis is to identify the crucial parameters that influence the forecast error. Subsequently, the share of the wind and photovoltaic power forecast which can be considered as reliably predictable for the following day is estimated. In addition, the increase in this reliable prediction through a higher level of detail in the assessment of the forecast error is quantified. Based on these results, the need of flexibilities through the weather-dependent electricity supply from wind and photovoltaic systems can be estimated, and the impact on the electricity system can be evaluated.     

Regulierung, Effizienz und das Anreizdilemma bei Investitionen in intelligente Netze

In this paper, we survey from a theoretical point of view to what extend cost-based and incentive-based regulatory regimes stimulate investments. For the purpose of this analysis, we furthermore differentiate by different efficiency measures, i.e. allocative efficiency, productive efficiency and dynamic efficiency and analyse to what extend each efficiency measure is stimulated by the regulatory regime. Eventually, we analyse to what extend regulatory incentives for network innovation in a smart grid context exist and to what extend different forms of regulation stimulate dynamic efficiency.     

Eine soziologische Systemanalyse und sozio-ökonomisches Review der Soziotechnik Energiewende

The transition of the energy supply system in Germany from fossil-nuclear energy resources to renewable energies is a policy issue and defines a society technics. Society technics takes responsibility for an essential societal need and should be based on an agreement between all actors in all involved systems. According to a society-technics there are benefits for encouraging research, good governance for political support, public understanding of science (PUSH), and academic consultation for politics.Positive implementation will results in optimal coordination as all systems will function and all actors will work for synergy-effects. But a sociological system analyses works out many “dyssynergies”, handling the transition only as technological challenges and failing in underlying this transformation as a socio-technical system. Using renewable energies will not only change the technological system architecture but also modifying social systems and individual attitudes.     

Bedeutung von CO2-Transport- und Speicheroptionen im europäischen Energiesystem

Aiming the stabilisation of the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere at 450 ppm, a strong climate policy in the EU-27 will be required. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and the building up of a CO₂ pipeline system will be one option to avoid climate change. The analysis of the potential CO₂ storage options in Europe shows a huge potential in the North Sea and their neighbouring countries and only less potentials in the southern European countries. A scenario analysis using the European energy system model TIMES PanEU shows that the installation of CO₂ transport pipelines for cross boarder exchange of CO₂ from power plants located next to the boarder could be one possible infrastructure solution. This solution is a cost efficient option which will be used mainly by the North Sea neighbouring countries (Germany, UK, the Netherlands, Denmark) and Poland. A central pipeline grid in the North Sea for the usage of huge storage options like the Utsira formation will be important in the future for countries with limited CO₂ storage capacities (like Belgium or the Netherlands). If cheap storage options like onshore Aquifers are not available, the design of central CO₂ pipeline grids has a strong impact on the power plant structure, the electricity and CO₂ certificate price. Based on a limited availability of onshore CO₂ storages the electricity price will increase by up to 16 € 2007/MWh and the CO₂-certificate price will rise by additional 35 € 2007/t CO₂ in 2050.     

Vergleichende Analyse der technisch-wirtschaftlichen Bedingungen von PV-Anlagen Mit Süd- und Ost-West-Ausrichtung

PV power plants with east-west-orientation have a lower energy production per installed kW_p due to their orientation than those facing to south. Thus they need a reduction of costs to compensate the lack of energy production and to have the same cost effectiveness as PV plants with south-orientation. This paper tries to show, how and if PV plants with east-west-orientation can be more profitable than PV plants with south-orientation. Therefore, the energy production was simulated for PV plants with an orientation to east-west and to south with different inclinations in a place with high irradiation (Freiburg) and a place with low irradiation (Hamburg). A calculation of profitability was made for each PV plant including energy production as well as ascertained costs. This are the main outcomes:

The profitability of PV plants with east-west-orientation is not better than the profitability of PV plants with south-orientation.

The profitability of PV plants with east-west-orientation is better than the one of PV plants with south-orientation when the costs of mounting systems are much lower for east-west mounting-systems than for mounting-systems with south-orientation and the costs of grid-connection and rent are high too.

The profitability of PV plants with east-west-orientation is higher in regions with low irradiation.

     

Dynamische Berechnung der Stromgestehungskosten von Energiespeichern für die Energiesystemmodellierung und -einsatzplanung

Due to the transition in energy supply from fossil to renewable energy sources, energy storage systems are getting more and more important for the security of power supply. Therefore also the modeling of those storage systems in energy system modeling needs to be further discussed. This paper focuses on the levelized costs of energy storage. In the beginning, the existing approaches of calculating those costs are analyzed in a literature review. It will be shown that all of the approaches calculate the levelized costs on the basis of the energy storages’ lifetime. For the usage in energy system modeling it is mandatory that the calculation can be done for variable and shorter time periods. Therefore this work’s approach calculates the costs based on the time of operation in any period chosen. Additionally, the model can be used for any type of storage system. After introducing the mathematical model, the levelized costs of energy storage will be calculated to illustrate the models properties and then verified with reference load profiles for five different energy storage types. Following this, particular input parameters are varied and sensitivities are pointed out. Most of the programs for power plant dispatch calculations use linear or mixed integer linear programing algorithms. As the calculation of levelized costs of electricity is non-linear, most programs use fixed values during the whole time of simulation. In this article the integration of the presented approach into a linear optimization program via recursive and shifted calculation is elaborated. Results are presented and discussed.     

Markttransparenz im CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>-Emissionshandel und Risikomanagement von Stromerzeugern

This paper analyses the effects of recent regulatory measures, namely the Regulation on wholesale Energy Market Integrity and Transparency enacted by the European Parliament and the Market Transparency Authority Act, that aim to increase transparency in CO₂ emissions trading on an utility maximizing electricity producer. Taking the particular characteristics of electricity into account, we analyze optimal composition of power generation and optimal risk policy. Our results have implications for the regulation of electricity producers with regard goals concerning environmental policy and supply reliability.     

Handel mit Grünstromzertifikaten bei Existenz von Emissionszielen: Gewinner und Verlierer in der EU

Within the development goal for the use of renewable energies in the EU, after the publishing of the directive proposal from the European Commission on January 23, an intensive discussion is taking place as to if and how the trade of green electricity certificates should occur. A motion from the opposition in the Bundestag explicitly asks to favour the proposal. Recently the opinion of the EU parliament was submitted that proposes numerous changes. The present article leaves the discussion of details about the possible organization of such a system and analyses the impacts of a green electricity certificate trade with emission targets on state level. It is shown that with the currently discussed conditions the Member States have few incentives to buy green electricity certificates as the overall costs to fulfil the emission and green electricity targets could rise. The national fulfilment of green electricity targets could therefore be cheaper in an overall view. However, it is unclear if such plans are compatible with the rules of the EU internal market. Therefore there could be “forced losers” among EU member states.     

Eine Bewertung verschiedener Kapazitätsmechanismen für den deutschen Strommarkt

This article examines the economic impacts of an implementation of different capacity mechanisms in the German market for electricity. We discuss selective mechanisms that address only newly installed capacity, as well as global mechanisms. Whenever appropriate, we give examples from international experience. We show that global mechanisms—contrary to selective mechanisms—can incentivize efficient investment decisions. However, due to the regulatory intensity of such mechanisms we advise not to take such measures unless a clear need is indicated.