中国宏观经济好转的持续性分析

2007年下半年,美国爆发次贷危机,随后演变成了金融危机、经济危机,对全球经济产生了巨大的冲击,对我国经济也产生了巨大的冲击.我国政府及时调整政策,沉着应对,目前,我国经济出现了好转.现在问题的关键是我国经济的好转是否能够持续?经济是否能一路坦途,自此进入新一轮经济周期的上升期?本文对此进行分析.全文分四个部分.第一部分,简要回顾了上一轮经济周期的上行期和下行期;第二部分,论证了中国经济明显好转;第三部分,从多个角度分析论证我国经济好转的持续性问题;第四部分,简要地阐述了对通货膨胀和通货紧缩的看法.     

The Impact of Trade Integration on Business Cycle Co-Movements in Europe

This paper extends our previous research on East Asia to the case of 14 European countries from 1977 to 1999. According to our empirical results, intraindustry trade is again the major channel through which the business cycles of European countries become synchronized. This contrasts with existing studies that found that increased trade itself led to the synchronization of business cycles. Our findings have important implications for the adoption of a currency union, as we expect that the costs of joining a currency union will diminish significantly only when intraindustry trade becomes dominant. JEL no. E32, F33, F36, F41     

Financial integration and innovation in Europe

The creation of an internal market for financial services by the European Union, along with technological changes in communications and data management, will have a strong impact on banking and financial markets in Europe. This paper presents a selective review of discussions concerning the resulting processes of adjustment and their outcomes. Topics covered include effects on cost efficiency, competition production and trade patterns, and the dynamics of financial regulation in the open, integrated economy.     

An impact of economic integration through trade: on business cycles for 10 East Asian countries

Many recent studies about East Asian countries discussed “natural” economic integration through trade, but there are few rigorous empirical studies on how their economies were affected by the evolution of economic integration within the region. This paper investigates the effect of bilateral trade dependence on the co-movement of business cycles for 10 East Asian countries. We find that economic fluctuations tend to be more synchronized within the region as trade interdependence among them deepens. This finding suggests the necessity of cooperative efforts to prevent or adjust unfavorable future economic crisis in East Asia.     

The International Business Cycle in a Changing World: Volatility and the Propagation of Shocks in the G-7

The changing relationships between the G-7 countries are examined through VAR models for quarterly growth, estimated over sub-periods and using a rolling data window. Trivariate models are employed, each including the US and a European (E15) aggregate. The results show that conditional volatility of growth has declined relatively more since 1980 for E15 than for the US, aggregate European shocks have increased impact on “core” European countries from around 1980, the effects of the US on Europe are largest during the 1970s and the late 1990s, and E15 has a steadily increasing impact on the US economy over time. JEL Classification Numbers: E32, F02, F43     

数字贸易与共同富裕：来自省域层面的证据

返乡创业是推动共同富裕的重要举措之一。农村数字贸易的兴起为返乡创业活动积累了丰富的先前经验、经济资源和创业机会,能有效带动返乡创业的成功开展。农村经济的自发式增长,为农村经济注入更多的创新活力。数字贸易能够通过联结城乡创业渠道、融合城乡创业资源以及打通城乡创业市场,实现城乡在渠道、资源和市场的共同富裕,从而缩小城乡间的贫富差距。建议通过完善农村返乡创业相关的法制法规、推进农村返乡创业者的职业培训、鼓励返乡创业者的跨部门合作来加强数字贸易对返乡创业活动的推动作用,从而更好地实现共同富裕。     

Globalization, Growth, and the Poor

This paper discusses the possible causal relationships and empirical associations between globalization and growth, growth and poverty reduction, and, finally, globalization and poverty reduction. We argue that globalization can contribute much to poverty reduction both directly and by accelerating growth. Second, the contributions of redistributive policies are very likely to be less than the contribution of greater access to markets, more competitive insurance and financial markets, and improved institutions to poverty reduction. The potential effect of greater international integration on poverty reduction, however, is limited by domestic policy failures in developing countries and also by continued protectionism, particularly in developed countries.     

中国—东盟区域经济一体化进程中的金融支撑

随着TPP谈判、RCEP谈判的推进和南中国海冲突日益增多,中国与东盟的交流与合作面临着新的挑战。在当前日益复杂的中国—东盟关系形势下,文章试图寻找中国—东盟金融合作新的路径。文章认为,中国与东盟的金融合作已不是一个单纯的经济问题,而是掺杂了经济因素和非经济因素。文章分析了中国—东盟金融合作的经济障碍和非经济障碍,并基于此状况,沿着增强中国与东盟的金融互信、考虑中国与东盟金融发展水平差异、建立统一稳定的区域金融市场以及抵制区域外势力的干预的思路提出了在当前形势下中国与东盟金融合作的推动策略。     

工会组织如何围绕矿山企业工作重点开展立功竞赛的实践与思考

如何根据矿山企业的工作重点,创新开展立功竞赛,为企业稳健持续发展做出应有贡献,是每一个工会干部应思考的问题。本文结合企业实际,在"转观念、抓改革、调结构、促发展"大讨论活动的重大意义,对工会组织在新形势下如何创新立功竞赛,展现工会组织的新作为做几点思考。     

From Worldwide Capital Mobility to International Financial Integration: A Review Essay

To be useful to economists, the definition of worldwide financial integration must refer to its welfare-relevant functions or consequences. What ultimately matters is its contribution to the equalization of current and intertemporal trading opportunities, represented by the cost of financial services, at maximum efficiency levels. Analyzing imperfect financial integration implies identifying the obstacles that prevent such equalization, with a lack of perfect capital mobility being only one of the possible impediments. Focusing on how to achieve international equalization, at least cost, of a broad range of financial services is a necessary change for a literature that has tended to rely on single stock, flow, or price correlations to gauge the degree of financial integration, without viewing it as a continuing microeconomic task with many facets.     

基于商业生态系统的中国金融业发展战略思考

穆尔的商业生态系统共同演化理论从动态的角度探讨了企业应重视合作和创新,以突出企业间的网络联盟关系,建立一种不同于古典对抗竞争的合作竞争战略,这一理论思想已被广泛应用于一般工商企业的发展战略实践中。基于商业生态系统理论视角来研究金融业的发展战略,培育良好互动的金融生态系统,走全能集团化发展模式和国际化战略是未来中国金融业发展的正确方向。     

营商环境、数字经济与共同富裕

营商环境是我国打造高质量发展的强大引擎,已经成为实现共同富裕的关键支撑。基于治理理论,文章以2012-2022年287个地级及以上市数据,实证分析了营商环境对共同富裕的影响及数字经济的中介作用。实证检验发现：城市营商环境优化显著促进共同富裕实现,且存在区域性的差异;城市营商环境优化通过促进数字经济发展进而推动共同富裕实现。据此,提出建立区域营商环境优化合作机制;推动区域差异化营商环境优化策略落地;适度超前布局数字化区域协同网络等政策启示,以期促进共同富裕实现。     

Financial Imbalance Index as a New Early Warning Indicator： Methods and Applications in the Chinese Economy

Based on the stylized facts of financial crises and systemic risk accumulation, this paper constructs a new financial imbalance index （FII） from the perspective of endogenous financial cycles and assesses its application in China＇s macro-financial analysis. The results show that the FII is not only an effective index to detect financial imbalances in China＇s economic cycles, but is also more accurate than and plays more of a leading role than conventional indicators, such as the consumer price index, the financial conditions index and the purchasing managers indicator. Empirical analysis shows that the FII can be used as an effective indicator to measure systemic financial risk, and can provide policy-makers and market participants with useful information to make appropriate decisions.     

吉林省民营外贸企业发展的金融支持体系研究

吉林省民营外贸企业队伍不断壮大,成为推动经济振兴的重要力量,但金融支持体系建设的滞后成为制约其发展的重要因素。因此建立健全民营外贸企业金融支持体系,提供多层次、全方位的金融服务,对于促进吉林省民营外贸企业发展具有重要的现实意义。     

金融发展、对外贸易与全要素生产率：来自中国省域的证据

文章将金融发展、对外贸易与全要素生产率整合在一个统一的分析框架中,考察了开放经济下金融发展在促进贸易规模扩大、贸易结构优化,并进而促进全要素生产率增长中的内在机理。实证结果表明,金融发展不仅能够促进贸易规模的扩大,而且还能促使贸易结构优化。但是从具体的金融指标来看,只有中长期贷款余额的增加和以存贷比表示的金融发展效率的提升才能产生贸易规模和贸易结构效应,而贷款总量的增加并不能产生这种效应。并基于这一结论,用金融发展对贸易影响的回归拟和值来考察全要生产率增长的情况,证明了金融发展通过对外贸易对全要素生产率增长的促进作用的存在性,但这种效应只有东部地区才有,中西部地区有由于金融发展水平的滞后而不存在这种效应。另外这种效应的发挥主要也是通过技术进步渠道来实现的,其对技术效率的改善作用不明显。同时在实证检验中还发现,金融发展通过对外贸易影响全要素生产率增长要受到各个地区人力资本水平的影响,即存在“人力资本门槛”效应。     

全球金融危机对辽宁外贸出口的影响与对策

近年来辽宁对外贸易发展迅速,但由于美国次贷危机逐渐演化为全球金融危机,对辽宁对外贸易的发展必然产生新的压力和挑战。本文研究了辽宁外贸发展现状,分析了国际金融危机对辽宁对外贸易的主要影响,提出了相应的对策与建议。