Adjustable-rate mortgages,household mobility,and homeownership: A simulation study

A semi-Markov model is used to evaluate the effects of adjustable-rate mortgages on housing tenure decisions of recent movers and steady-state homeownership rates. Simulations were undertaken based on household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics together with information on FRM-ARM rate spreads and Treasury yield curves. Results suggest that under most interest rate patterns that prevailed in the 1980s, ARMS had little effect on the relative cost of owning to renting and, as a result, had little effect on mover tenure choice and home sales. Moreover, despite some minor projected increase in the percentage of movers that choose to own when ARMs are available, ARM effects on steady-state owner-occupancy rates appear to be largely mitigated by an ARM-induced tilt toward a relatively more mobile steady-state pool of owner-occupiers.     

GSE Activity,FHA Feedback,and Implications for the Efficacy of the Affordable Housing Goals

There is a seeming paradox regarding the “affordable housing goals”: GSE activities in targeted communities have increased under the goals but there has been little measurable improvement in housing market conditions in these communities. This paper seeks to reconcile this paradox by focusing on linkage between GSE purchases and FHA activities. We present a simple theoretical framework suggesting that GSE activities can have a feedback effect on FHA. More aggressive GSE pursuit of targeted borrowers under the affordable housing goals induces potential FHA borrowers with best credit quality to use the conventional market. Changes to the housing market will depend on the FHA response to the loss of its best credits, with many different possible outcomes for credit supply and homeownership, including scenarios in which they remain effectively unchanged. While market-level benefits might not be forthcoming, the shift from FHA to less costly conventional loans is clearly beneficial for affected borrowers. Two-stage least squares estimates of the relationship between GSE and FHA lending after the affordable housing goals were made more binding are found to be consistent with the theoretical predictions.

Determinants of the ARM Share of FHA and Conventional Lending

Loan-choice research has generally examined the determinants of fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) versus ARM lending in the single-family conventional market. Little attention has been paid to the significant differences in ARM lending between the GSE conforming and jumbo markets, as well as differences in the FHA market. For example, the ARM share of jumbo originations is generally two to three times that of the conforming market. This article extends past analysis by examining the determinants of ARM market share in the conventional conforming, jumbo, and FHA markets. Mortgage-pricing variables and the slope of the Treasury yield curve, a proxy for expectations of the time path of ARM indexes, were generally found to be significant. Further, the geographic shift in FHA lending toward the California market since 1992 was found to explain a significant part of the increase in the ARM share of FHA originations during the mid-1990s.     

商业银行个人住房转按揭贷款法律问题研究

近年来,商业银行个人住房转按揭贷款在中国迅速发展.作为一种新型的融资方式,个人住房转按揭贷款涉及的当事人较多,法律关系较为复杂.本文根据转按揭涉及的主体不同将其划分为三类,并分别介绍了它们各自产生的动因和相关的法律依据.在此基础上,作者详细阐述了个人住房转按揭贷款中涉及的保险法律问题,以及银行在其中所处的法律地位.针对转按揭贷款业务的流程特点,笔者指出由于转按揭贷款在发放后的一段时间内没有抵押担保,银行由此面临风险,而加强银行之间的合作以及选择专业的担保公司作为保证人是防范上述风险的有效途径.     

Political systems and the financial soundness of Islamic banks

We investigate whether and how political systems affect the financial soundness of conventional and Islamic banks. Using factors extracted from principal component analysis, we find that Islamic banks underperform their conventional counterparts in more democratic political systems but outperform them in hybrid and Sharia’a-based legal systems. The findings reflect the challenges Islamic banks face in Western countries in terms of perception, financial infrastructure, and regulatory constraints while mirroring the recognition of their specificities and their cultural and religious compliance with Sharia’a law in Muslim countries. The findings are robust to a battery of alternative estimation techniques and methods of correcting standard errors.     

Corporate financial structure and financial stability

Drawing on a unique dataset of flow-of funds and balance sheet data, this paper analyzes the impact of financial crises on aggregate corporate financing and expenditure in a range of countries. Investment and inventory contractions are the main contributors to lower GDP growth after crises, with a much greater effect in emerging market countries. The debt–equity ratio is correlated with investment and inventory declines following crises. Econometric analysis suggests that financial crises have a greater impact on expenditure and the financing of corporate sectors in emerging markets than in industrial countries. Industrial countries appear to benefit from a pick-up in bond issuance in the wake of banking crises. Although companies in emerging market countries hold more precautionary liquidity, this is evidently not sufficient to prevent a greater amplitude of response of expenditure to shocks.     

Measuring financial soundness around the world: A machine learning approach

We use a fully data-driven approach and information provided by the IMF’s financial soundness indicators to measure the condition of a country’s financial system around the world. Given the nature of the measurement problem, we apply different versions of principal component analysis (PCA) to deal with the presence of strong cross-sectional and time dependence in the data due to unobserved common factors. Using this comprehensive sample and various statistical methods, we produce an alternative data-driven measure of financial soundness that provides policy makers and financial institutions with a monitoring and policy tool that is easy to implement and update. We validate our index by using alternative macroeconomic factors, confirming its predictive power. Our index captures important aspects of financial intermediation around the world.     

中国农村金融三十年改革发展的内在逻辑——以农村信用社改革为例

本文以我国农村信用社为线索,总结了农村金融改革发展三十年的经验教训,分析了一些关键的改革争论,揭示了中国农村金融改革发展三十年逻辑,即农村金融改革是以经济需求为导向,对农村金融的认识在争论和改革中进一步深化,并提出了下一步改革应关注的几个问题。     

住房反向抵押贷款的国际借鉴与实践

随着我国老龄化社会程度的加重,社会保障压力不容回避.而市场经济发达国家通过住房反向抵押贷款,实现了以房养老,既提高了老年人的生活质量,又减轻了国家社会保障压力.因此,在我国推出住房反向抵押贷款,对于构建和谐社会有着重要的意义.     

Social Capital and Housing Affordability: Evidence from China

This article attempts to examine the problem of housing affordability in China based on a set of household-level survey data. In contrast to the previous studies, our study focuses on the important implication of social capital for households’ house-purchasing decisions in this country. Our results show that household expenditures on the relations with parents and other relatives are important determinants for homeownership in China. We also find evidence that house-purchasing decisions are significantly affected by relatives-related variables such as number of immediate relatives in the same city, distance from parents, educational years of family head’s father, and whether parents are alive. Our research helps shed new light on the high homeownership rates in urban China.     

论个人住房抵押贷款的风险及防范

随着个人住房抵押贷款业务的蓬勃发展 ,其风险也日益凸现 ,因此个人住房抵押贷款的风险及风险防范也逐渐引起各商业银行的高度重视。从多角度、多因素入手 ,分析个人住房抵押贷款风险形成的原因 ,并针对风险隐患 ,结合国外发展个人住房抵押贷款的成功经验 ,提出具体防范风险的对策。     

The changing fortunes of FHA's Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund and the legislative response

The 1980s was a bad decade for FHA's Mutual Mortgage Insurance (MMI) program, the mainstay of FHA's single family mortgage insurance. While the MMI Fund is required by statute to be actuarially sound, the Fund lost close to $6 billion dollars, and its economic value declined from 5.3 percent of insurance in-force to under one percent. This study documents the decline in the soundness of the MMI Fund in the 1980s and describes the legislation enacted in October 1990 to shore up the Fund.     

Financial factors and firm growth: evidence from financial data on Taiwanese firms

We investigate the possible predictability of firm growth in Taiwan using cross-sectional data of financial factors for the years 1997 and 2003 via principal component analysis. Our results reveal that the 18 financial variables (sales growth rate, total assets, total sales, return on assets, return on equity, gross margin, operating cost minus depreciation divided by sales plus other trading income, acid test ratio, debt–equity ratio, time interest earned, average receivables per average daily sales, inventory, average payables per average daily sales, working capital, working capital as a fraction of total assets, long-term liabilities as a fraction of total assets, and sales as a fraction of net worth of the firm) that we employ bunch together into five different financial ratios for the years 1997 and 2003 that are stable between these years. These financial factors are short-term liquidity, return on investment, long-term liquidity, firm size and capital turnover. Regressing these ratio groups (extracted principal components) on firm growth, we find return on investment in the year 1997 was positively and significantly related to firm growth, while long-term solvency was negatively related to firm growth. In addition, smaller firms tended to grow faster. By 2003, larger firms grew faster than smaller ones and short-term liquidity was positively and significantly related to firm growth, while return on investment was no longer a significant determining factor. Our findings suggest that firms that finance internally or do not rely too heavily on indebtedness may end up growing slower during boom periods but they are the ones that survive and outperform after the bust.     

次贷危机下的CDS市场:风险与变革

作为有效的信用保险产品,信用违约互换在金融市场上扮演着重要角色。然而,交易的集中化、投机化和去监管化却又蕴积出市场风险,并在美国国际集团接管事件中凸显出来。剖析次贷危机所暴露出来的信贷市场风险,研究次贷交易过程中的过度投机和监管漏洞,对于确立我国CDS的场内交易机制不无裨益,也有助于建立对交易主体资格、交易信息披露、履约争议解决、市场稳定性影响等事项的持续监管机制。     

Bank soundness and bank lending to new firms during the global financial crisis

This paper examines how the soundness of financial institutions affected bank lending to new firms during the 2008 financial crisis by using a unique firm–bank match‐level dataset of 1,467 unlisted small and medium‐sized enterprises incorporated in Japan. We employ a within‐firm estimator that can control for unobserved firms’ demand for credit through firm ? time fixed effects. The major findings of this paper are the following four points. First, sounder financial institutions may be generally less likely to provide financing to new firms. Second, our results suggest that sounder financial institutions were less likely to provide loans to new firms during the 2008 financial crisis. Third, financial institutions were less likely to provide financing to new firms during such crisis as compared to those with the same soundness during non‐crisis periods. Finally, such lending relationships to new firms that are established during the financial crisis by sounder financial institutions are more likely to be continued than such lending by less sound financial institutions.     

我国城镇住房保障制度金融政策的现状评析与改革建议

住房供给保障制度与住房金融政策,作为向居民提供住房保障与融资支持的重要条件,对于中低收入阶层居民住房条件的改善,具有决定性的影响。与对中高收入阶层居民的影响相比,我国的住房金融体制在为中低收入居民提供金融支持方面存在一定的缺陷：低收入居民从现行住房金融体系中获得的支持与其贡献不相匹配,存在着＂劫贫济富＂的现象。针对这些问题,本文提出从住房金融机构的设立和完善、住房抵押贷款证券化、适当的制约和监督措施三方面入手,对我国住房保障制度金融政策进行改革。     

Choosing between fixed-and adjustable-rate mortgages: The case of commercial mortgages

This article reports on the determinants of the ARM choice for commercial real estate projects. The theoretical literature suggests that commercial real estate projects are more likely to be financed with an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) if the project's income stream or value is expected to rise with inflation over time. The empirical model estimated is a structural probit probability model of the ARM choice. Our results demonstrate that commercial borrowers typically place great emphasis on relative interest-rate differentials when deciding which mortgage is best. We also find that commercial mortgage borrowers will ordinarily be reluctant to issue an ARM when the fixed interest rate is low.     

Trust in,trust out: a real cost of sudden and significant financial loss

This study examines the loss of trust that occurs when individuals suffer from sudden and significant financial loss. We use a qualitative case study to show that individuals lose trust in a range of parties, including financial advisors, banks, credit providers, government and perhaps most damagingly of all, oneself. Such outcomes are concerning as all financial services are based on trust between various parties, and trust is important in making financial decisions. A lack of trust can lead to poorer individual and societal outcomes. It also suggests that trends to financial self‐sufficiency have risks, which impact well beyond monetary losses.     

External finance and dividend policy: a twist by financial constraints

This study assesses distorting effect of financial constraints on the inverse relationship between internal and external finance by examining impact of an exogenous financing shock (i.e. a regulation released in China in 2008) on dividend policies in a quasi‐natural experimental setting. Our result shows that in the absence of the regulation, the inverse relationship holds. However, the relation is twisted by the 2008 regulation. Compared with unconstrained firms, financially constrained firms are more willing to pay dividends and are more restrained to reduce cash dividends after the regulation, despite the fact that their external financing capacities are further constrained.