环球

欧洲央行：欧债危机最艰难时期已经结束 路透社报道．欧洲央行高层近日在接受媒体采访时表示，近几个月来希腊、西班牙等重债国经常账户出现盈余、贸易逆差不断缩小，欧元区其他困难国家的经常账户赤字也普遍大幅减少，意味着欧债危机最艰难的时期已基本结束，欧盟进入“后危机”改革和调整阶段。未来，欧盟应继续推行经济改革和结构调整、保持稳定的货币政策、严格财政纪律、进一步推动银行业重组，使债务危机从根本上得到解决。     

货币联盟中的货币政策承诺与财政纪律

单一货币政策和成员国分散的财政政策的相互作用和协调是货币联盟面临的一个重要问题。本文运用博弈模型分析了货币联盟中有关财政与货币政策几种协调安排的宏观经济含义,指出在成员国无法达成目标一致的条件下,财政纪律和货币政策承诺有助于通货膨胀目标的实现,但产出目标能否实现则取决于财政纪律的合理性。合理的财政纪律必须考虑成员国基础环境、财政政策乘数及其溢出效应以及潜在产出水平等因素。无效的财政纪律将损害货币政策承诺的效力。本文认为2005年欧洲经济货币联盟对《稳定与增长公约》的改革只是缓和了危机而没有从根本上解决危机,财政纪律危机风波仍将上演,对SGP的改革也远未结束。     

央行扩权的理论基础（上）——央行为什么扩权（之一）

2008年金融危机之后，以美联储、欧洲央行、英格兰银行为代表的中央银行纷纷获得了更大的金融监管权。这一现象成为危机后各国金融监管格局的一个重要变化。在可预见的若干年中，中央银行金融监管权的扩张将是各国金融监管体制改革的主要路径之一。     

欧债危机的制度因素分析

自2008年金融危机爆发以来,欧洲各国为了保持经济稳定,大幅增加了财政赤字和公共债务规模,最终爆发了欧洲主权债务危机。针对危机,欧元区推出了一系列救援措施,但是欧盟现行的救援体系更多是一种短期的应对机制,欧债危机的根源有着其制度性的缺陷,因此欧元区需要在财政纪律、维系金融稳定和制度保障方面进行长足改革才能从根本上解决债务危机问题。     

“风雨前行”德拉吉

如果德拉吉决定公布再次购买债券这个"大武器",他就需要避免两种道德危机的出现:一种是帮助曾经挥霍无度的国家领导人摆脱改革困境时的风险;另一种则是,允许债权国通过隐藏欧洲央行资产负债表中风险的手段,逃避承担更多的财政负担的危机早在一年前的这一周,意大利前任总理西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼收到了一封两个男人写来的信,这是两个掌握着国家命运的人:特里谢—前任欧洲央行行长;马特.德拉吉—现任欧洲央行行长。在信     

欧洲央行的最后贷款人角色

欧债危机爆发后,欧洲央行一直在是否充当政府债券市场最后贷款人的问题上摇摆不定。笔者认为,货币联盟中的政府债券市场存在缺陷,很容易爆发流动性危机,只有中央银行做出最后贷款人的承诺才能解决这一问题。文章对以通胀风险、财政影响、道德风险、白芝浩理论、法律异议为理由反对欧洲央行为政府债券市场提供最后贷款支持的声音,进行了逐一驳斥,建议:为了维护金融稳定,欧洲央行必须公开声明将在政府债券市场上坚定不移地履行最后贷款人职责。     

国际金融发展新格局下的中国金融监管改革战略研究

全球金融危机爆发以来,国际经济金融格局发生了深刻的变化,新的国际金融监管框架正在逐步确立。为此,中国应如何应对国际金融发展格局的变化,顺应国际金融监管的改革趋势,加快实施中国金融监管改革战略,建立和完善金融全球化背景下的国内金融监管框架,强化金融监管的国际协调与合作,为中国"开放型经济"发展提供金融安全保障,成为了极其重要的现实问题。本研究从考察危机后国际资本流动的格局变化与国际金融市场的发展动态入手,全面分析中国金融监管改革面临的机遇与挑战,并在此基础上提出了中国金融监管改革的战略构想。     

国际金融发展新格局下的中国金融监管改革战略研究北大核心CSSCISSCI

全球金融危机爆发以来,国际经济金融格局发生了深刻的变化,新的国际金融监管框架正在逐步确立。为此,中国应如何应对国际金融发展格局的变化,顺应国际金融监管的改革趋势,加快实施中国金融监管改革战略,建立和完善金融全球化背景下的国内金融监管框架,强化金融监管的国际协调与合作,为中国"开放型经济"发展提供金融安全保障,成为了极其重要的现实问题。本研究从考察危机后国际资本流动的格局变化与国际金融市场的发展动态入手,全面分析中国金融监管改革面临的机遇与挑战,并在此基础上提出了中国金融监管改革的战略构想。     

完善企业年金监管的几点思考

由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融风波至今已近四年,其造成的损失和影响自20世纪30年代以来前所未有.美国、英国和欧盟为防止危机对经济的进一步拖累,纷纷提出自己的金融监管改革计划,以应对危机.文章首先介绍了美国和欧盟金融监管改革的发展历程,然后总结了美欧金融监管改革对我国加强金融监管的启示,最后结合国际金融监管改革的新动向,并从市场化、风险控制和构建合作机制等三方面提出了改善我国企业年金监管的政策建议.     

国际货币体系改革——金融危机后的思考

美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机,使现行国际货币体系—牙买加体系的缺陷进一步暴露出来:美元本位制放纵了美国的过度消费,国际资本流动缺乏监管以及不稳定的汇率体系加剧了危机蔓延。虽然对国际货币体系的改革面临美元霸权、改革成本高等方面的阻碍,但改革现行的IMF以及扩展国际救助范围,加强金融监管力度已然成为改革方向。     

The European Monetary Policy Responses During the Pandemic Crisis

This paper uses an event-based analysis to describe how the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) policy responses to the pandemic crisis have affected the European financial and economic system. The result of our exercise, which is based on the examination of the main measures taken by the ECB during 2020, is that these responses have positively affected the European economic system by improving banks’ lending activity and by indirectly creating room for expansionary fiscal policies in the euro area’s high-debt countries that do not have fiscal capacity.

     

The assessment: macroeconomic policy after EMU

In this paper we discuss the emergence of the new European macroeconomicstructure within EMU. We focus on three important elements:the wage-fixing authorities in each country, the fiscal authoritiesin each country, and the single European Central Bank (ECB).We identify serious problems which might arise in coordinatingboth the wage-setters and the fiscal authorities, and arguethat these problems could be exacerbated if the ECB conductsmonetary policy inappropriately. In the light of this we providerecommendations for the conduct of monetary policy by the ECB.The paper also briefly discusses financial stability issuesand the interaction between the countries in EMU and the restof the world.     

The Present International Monetary System: Problems,Complications, and Reforms

In the last decade serious crises have affected financial markets. Some proposals to avoid international financial crises have been made, but more useful could be measures to strengthen the functioning of the present international monetary system. Another way could be a much greater involvement of the private sector. The misalignment among leading currencies of the world can be a source of crisis difficult to solve. The creation of the European Central Bank (ECB) and of the euro leaves unresolved the serious problem of how a European Monetary Union member will respond to an asymmetric shock.     

European monetary unification: a tour d'horizon

This article takes stock of the literature and debate over Europeanmonetary unification. In contrast to other papers, where itis argued that the issues and prospects remain shrouded in uncertainty,I argue that in a number of important areas, a reasonable degreeof consensus now exists, as the result of a decade of scholarship.The subsequent stock-taking concentrates on areas where significantquestions remain, starting with the implications of surrenderingthe exchange rate and an independent national monetary policyas instruments of adjustment; the conduct of fiscal policy underthe Excessive Deficit Procedure and the Stability Pact; andhow quickly the European union is likely to develop an EU-widesystem of fiscal federalism to accompany its monetary union.Turning from fiscal to monetary issues, I ask whether the EuropeanCentral Bank (ECB) will be as inflation averse as the Bundesbank,what exchange-rate policy the ECB will pursue, and whether theeuro will be a leading reserve currency. I conclude with whatmay be the most contentious issue of all, namely whether Europe'smonetary union could collapse after it begins.     

Will Bank Bailouts Bust Budgets? Fiscalisation of the East Asian financial crisis

East Asia has returned to a position of relative financial stability and modest economic growth seven years since the onset of the East Asian financial crisis, but the long-range impact of the crisis is still unclear, especially regarding fiscal ramifications. Thailand and Indonesia were two of the hardest hit economies and each had exemplary fiscal policies before the crisis. Since the crisis, both countries have maintained prudent fiscal policies, keeping budget deficits relatively small, managing debt burdens effectively and limiting exposure to contingent liabilities. Both countries have addressed the short-term triggers of the financial crisis admirably and continue to monitor vigilantly their external vulnerabilities. Thus, if either country experiences a fiscal crisis, it will be the result of other factors—bank bail-outs will bust budgets only if banks have to be bailed out once again due to incomplete or insufficient financial sector reform.     

淮南为橘淮北为枳：高福利模式在南北欧国家的实施效果差异及对中国的启示

2008年爆发的全球金融危机以及随后的欧洲主权债务危机表明,同样是高福利国家,北欧国家保持着较高的经济增长率、较低的失业率以及相对健康的财政状况,而希腊、葡萄牙、西班牙和意大利等南欧国家却陷入了空前的经济危机和社会危机之中。分析其中原因,有社会信任感差异很大。导致税收和社保制度的执行效果不同;社会保障支出结构失调,导致高福利制度依然未能缓解南欧国家的收入分配悬殊;超越财政支付能力的社保支出规模、教育与就业政策出现偏差以及规模庞大的地下经济和盛行的家庭养老模式等都严重制约社会保障制度发挥其应有的职能。这些教训为我国社保制度的完善提供了很好的借鉴。     

欧洲债务危机:原因、症结与出路

欧洲债务危机的发生既有内部原因又有外部原因。内部原因有欧元制度设计缺陷、危机国家政策失误、福利制度等,外部原因有金融危机影响、美元势力打压等。欧债危机的症结表现为六大矛盾,即欧元区国家与非欧元区国家之间的矛盾、欧元区内部发生危机国家与未发生危机国家之间的矛盾、援助国之间的矛盾、援助国内部的矛盾、债务国内部的矛盾、欧元与美元之间的矛盾。解决欧债危机必须多策并举:欧洲内部需要树立自信、增强他信,改革欧元、实施统一财政政策,保增长、促发展,改革福利制度;对外则需加强与美元势力的斗争,寻求中国等新兴工业化国家援助。     

What are the Trade Spill-Overs from Fiscal Shocks in Europe? An Empirical Analysis***

We use a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) analysis to explore the (trade spill-over) effects of fiscal policy shocks in Europe. To enhance comparability with the existing literature, we first analyse the effects of these shocks at the national level. Here, we employ identification based on Choleski decomposition and a structural VAR, both of which lead to the same results. Then, we turn to study the cross-border spill-overs of fiscal shocks via the trade channel. Fiscal expansions in Germany, France and Italy lead to significant increases in imports from a number of European countries. In order to mimic the case of monetary union, we also shut off the effects via the short-term interest rate and the nominal exchange rate and find a slight strengthening on average of the cross-country spill-overs from a fiscal expansion. These results suggest that it may be worthwhile to further investigate the possibility of enhanced fiscal coordination.*** This research is part of the RTN project ‘Macroeconomic Policy Design for Monetary Unions’, funded by the European Commission (contract number HPRN-CT-2002-00237). We thank two anonymous referees, a referee for the ECB Working Paper series, Peter Claeys, David-Jan Jansen, Franc Klaassen, Roberto Perotti and audiences at the Dutch Central Bank and the CEPR/CREI Conference ‘Designing a Macroeconomic Policy Framework for Europe’ (Barcelona, 2004) for many helpful comments. A large part of this paper was written while Beetsma was visiting the Directorate-General for Research of the ECB. He thanks the ECB for the stimulating research environment. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not commit any of.cial institution. The usual disclaimer applies.     

The European debt crisis and fiscal reactions in Europe 2000–2014

After the outbreak of the global financial crisis, some governments in the EU experienced serious fiscal problems, while others were less affected. This paper seeks to shed light on the divergent fiscal performance in the EU countries before and after the outbreak of the crisis. Fiscal reaction functions of the primary balance are estimated for different groups of EU countries using quarterly data for the pre-crisis period 2001–2008 and for the crisis period 2009–2014. The pre-crisis estimations reveal some differences in persistence and cyclical reaction between different groups of countries, but in most cases little feedback from the debt stock to the primary balance. The fiscal reaction functions of the countries that eventually developed fiscal problems do not stand out. The estimations on data from the crisis period show largely unchanged persistence and counter-cyclicality but much more feedback from the debt stock, and this applies both to the crisis countries and those less affected. In spite of large deficits and accumulation of debt, the underlying fiscal reaction has become more prudent after the outbreak of the European debt crisis.