Major Determinants of International Tourism Demand for South Korea:

This study identifies the major determinants of international inbound tourist expenditures in South Korea using regression models. Income, relative prices, exchange rates, promotional expenditures, and dummy variables are incorporated into the models. The empirical results show that the coefficient of income was statistically significant and was highly elastic. The coefficients of relative prices and exchange rates were generally significant and elastic. The coefficient of promotional expenditures was found to be significant, but appeared to be inelastic. The findings of this study provide useful marketing information on how to promote international tourism demand for Korea.     

Global Financial/Economic Crisis and Tourist Arrival Forecasts for Hong Kong

This paper examines the impact of the global financial/economic crisis on the demand for Hong Kong tourism by residents of 10 major source markets for the period 2009–2012. To capture the influence of this crisis, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ADLM) is used to calculate the demand elasticities, and four scenarios (ranging from the most pessimistic to the most optimistic) are created to examine the possible impacts of changes in source market income levels and the price of tourism on the demand for Hong Kong tourism in these markets. The demand elasticities reveal that the economic conditions in the source markets are the most significant determinants of demand for Hong Kong tourism. In the most pessimistic scenario, total tourist arrivals to Hong Kong are projected to reach 27.6 million in 2009 and 26.0 million in 2012, whereas in the most optimistic scenario, these numbers are 30.7 million in 2009 and 33 million in 2012. In all of the scenarios, tourist arrivals from the long-haul markets are expected to suffer more losses relative to the short-haul markets during the 2009–2012 forecasting period. The forecasts also indicate that the market shares of the source markets will change slightly over this period, with Mainland China, Taiwan and Japan constituting the dominant markets for Hong Kong tourism.     

The determinants of Italian domestic tourism: A panel data analysis

In this study, a GMM panel data estimation is used to investigate the main determinants of Italian domestic tourism demand as measured by regional bilateral tourism flows. The analysis is developed both at aggregate level and for the two traditional macro-areas of the country, namely Centre-North and South. For the whole nation, the importance of traditional economic variables in determining domestic tourism flows is confirmed. However tourist actual choices appear also to be influenced by past experiences and by regional differences in the quality of the wider environment. Additionally it appears that, for Italian tourists, domestic and international destinations behave as substitutable goods. The sub-sample analysis highlights some interesting differences between macro-areas. In particular, southern tourists appear more responsive to income variations, and less sensitive to prices differentials than their northern counterparts. Moreover, the degree of competition between domestic and outbound trips is higher in the South. Finally, southern tourists seem to be more influenced by environmental attributes while northern tourists are more sensitive to cultural activities.     

Domestic tourism demand of urban and rural residents in China: Does relative income matter?

The aim of this research is to investigate the domestic tourism demand of urban and rural residents in China. Based on the data from the National Household Tourism Survey, we specify Chinese domestic tourism demand as a function of absolute income, relative income, domestic tourism price, and substitute price. As a major contribution of this study, relative income is measured using the distance between individual income and average income over a city/province. Based on the estimation results from multilevel models, this paper highlights the effect of relative income on domestic tourism demand in some sub-regions of China. Furthermore, regional differences between residents in different sub-regions and different patterns of determinants between urban and rural residents are identified and discussed.     

Dynamic heterogeneous panel data analysis of tourism demand for Singapore

The objective of this study is to investigate tourism demand for Singapore using heterogeneous dynamic panel estimation methods. A binary variable representing the operation of Integrated Resorts (IRs), as well as income and real exchange rate, are included as determinants of tourism demand growth. Using seasonally adjusted and actual/raw quarterly data of 16 origin countries, our study shows that the pooled mran group (PMG) estimator is able to provide consistent and efficient estimates of long-run relationships between tourism demand and the determinants. The PMG results show that the long-run income (price) elasticity is positively (negatively) significant, with an elasticities range between 0.915 and 3.05 (?0.275 and ?0.34). In addition, the study reveals that the IRs contribute to tourism demand growth, especially in attracting tourists from Asia. In the long term, tourism demand by the Asian markets is less income-sensitive than that of the non-Asian counterparts.     

Analysis of international tourist arrivals in China: The role of World Heritage Sites

This paper analyzes the determinants of international tourist arrivals in China, especially for World Heritage Sites and various kinds of travel spots. Utilizing annual provincial panel data over the 2000–2005 period, the empirical results suggest that key determinants include the relative income, population in the original country, cost of travel, and tourism infrastructure. In addition, World Heritage Sites are also found to be significant in explaining the numbers of international tourists and have a greater tourist-enhancing effect. Other famous tourist sites rated 4A- and 3A-class are also attractive to foreign tourism. Moreover, cultural rather than natural sites attract more interest among foreign tourists, because China is internationally renowned for its long-standing historical and cultural assets. Finally, the importance of the determinants of the demand for tourism varies from country to country.     

Remodeling international tourism demand: Old theory and new evidence

The purpose of this study is to advance the tourism demand theory by excluding simultaneous effects of exchange rates and prices in empirical models, formulating an alternative pricing modus operandi consistent with recent research in the area, and demonstrating the efficacy of the use of an industrial production index (IPI) as a proxy for income. A panel fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) method is employed to estimate the inbound tourism demand for Turkey. Study findings suggest that the inclusion of exchange rates and prices, as mutually exclusive components, can be misleading; the IPI is not a good proxy for income; and country-specific coefficients need to be analyzed to accurately explain determinants of tourism demand for countries in the panel.     

Seasonality in New Zealand Winery Visitation

Summary

Seasonality is a major issue in tourism management; however, the implications of seasonality for wine tourism have only received limited attention. Arguably, because of the interaction between seasonal patterns of consumer demand with the inherent seasonality of vineyard work and wine supply means that seasonality issues may be even more problematic for wine tourism than other forms of tourism. The article provides the results of a national study on wine tourism in New Zealand. The article highlights the seasonal nature of visitation and suggests a number of marketing strategies by which some of the effects of seasonality may be overcome in terms of both target markets and the improved management of human resources.     

Yearly,monthly and weekly seasonality of tourism demand: A decomposition analysis

Annual seasonal variations in tourism demand have been a central theme in literature. However, annual seasonality is not the only time-based inequality in tourism flows that has important implications on policy-making decisions at destinations. Within the context of tourism, this study aims to make an in-depth analysis of intra-monthly and intra-weekly tourism demand using the entropy and relative redundancy measures as alternative seasonality indicators to the Gini coefficient in order to provide new tools to manage tourism and propose new action policies at these frequencies. In comparison with the Gini coefficient, the entropy measure is simpler to compute and it is easily decomposable. Using the case study of air arrivals and departures to and from the Balearic Islands, results show the appropriateness of entropy and relative redundancy as seasonal indicators but also as a new information tools for tourism seasonality analysis.     

Governance in context: Boracay Island,Philippines

Case study research of community tourism planning in the developing world rarely focuses on the combined effects of history, markets, culture, legislation, and politics. This case study of Boracay Island, Philippines suggests that understanding these contextual factors is essential for sustainable tourism development. The research led to the conclusion that better planning based on a broad systematic assessment should be coupled with improved governance to move from knowledge to implementation. Better governance should clearly delineate local, regional and national roles and incorporate community input to mitigate against the adverse effects of tourism development while maximizing benefits. The lessons learned have implications for tourism throughout the developing world.     

Mediterranean charters — a comparative geographic perspective

The growth of inclusive tour charter (ITC) flights has contributed significantly to the growth of Mediterranean tourism during the 1970s and early 1980s. This article examines the demand over time for ITC flights originating from airports in the UK, FR Germany and Sweden, to destinations within Spain and Greece. Significant regional biases are found to occur in the destinations favoured by each of the three generating markets for both Spain and Greece. A more detailed analysis of the patterns and trends of intra-national variation in ITC-flight demand could be useful to decision makers within the tourism industry.     

Do expectations of future wealth increase outbound tourism? Evidence from Korea

As international tourism is generally considered a luxury good, models to date have shared an understanding that demand is dependent on discretionary income. However, consumption theories predict that a shift in demand can be induced without changes in actual earnings when expectations for future income are adjusted. This presumes demand for international tourism can be influenced by “wealth effects” from real estate and financial assets. This study tested for the wealth effect on Korean outbound travelers during the 20 years between 1989 and 2009. Korea is a unique place to examine in that Korean households possess housing assets and financial assets that are traded actively in markets. The results of this study favored the possibility of a significant wealth effect from housing on outbound travel demand, but not from financial assets. This may be explained by data sensitivity and the relative importance of financial assets in the Korean people's wealth portfolios. Implications and suggestions for future research are provided along with the findings of the study.     

Modeling Tourist Flows to Indonesia and Malaysia

Summary

The purpose of this study was to examine the major factors that influence the flow patterns of tourists from six important tourist-generating countries to Indonesia and Malaysia. The primary determinants included in the demand models were income, prices, and time trend. Two models that employed different indicators for the price variable were estimated; one with exchange rates in addition to relative prices, whereas the other included only an exchange rate adjusted-relative price variable. Annual time-series data covering the period 1980 to 1997 were used for estimation. The results generally indicated that the factors provide reasonably good explanations for the demand for Indonesian and Malaysian tourism. The measure of thejoint effect of the changes in exchange rates and relative prices also seems to be a better indicator for the price variable for both destination countries. The study has important marketing implications for the tourism industries in Indonesia and Malaysia.     

Optimal targeting of latent tourism demand segments

This paper identifies for the first time the optimal target markets employing the latent tourism demand expenditure, a novel concept in tourism literature. The study quantifies latent tourism demand between each pair of origin-destination through distinguishing by type of tourism and seasonality. It works with market shares that are estimated via a fractional regression model. Moreover, latent demand is clustered using a market segmentation approach based on a latent class regression. Finally, the optimal target markets are chosen depending on the expected latent tourism expenditure. The result has clear policy implications in terms of which markets are promoted, the optimal channels of communication and the maximum budget for each marketing campaign.     

They arrive with new information. Tourism flows and production efficiency in the European regions

Firms productivity is crucially influenced by knowledge spillovers generated either by other firms located nearby or by direct contacts with consumers or by foreign demand in the case of traded products. In this paper we propose a new channel of efficiency-enhancing knowledge diffusion, which can be exploited by local firms to extract relevant information on consumer preferences: direct contacts with tourism flows. Tourists have the peculiar feature of being external consumers, who directly arrive to the destination region and this represents a remarkable advantage for the local enterprises, as the latter can exploit the new information and increase the overall efficiency level of the local economy. More specifically, we examine, within a spatial estimation framework, tourism flows as determinants of regional total factor productivity, controlling also for other intangible factors (such as human, social and technological capital) and for the degree of accessibility. We apply the analysis to a sample of 199 European regions belonging to the EU15 member countries, plus Switzerland and Norway. The empirical results show that tourism flows enhance regional efficiency and that a positive role is also played by intangible assets, infrastructures and spatial spillovers.     

Transport infrastructure and tourism development

This paper investigates the significance of transport infrastructure as a factor in destination development, showing it to be part of the classical demand for international tourism functions. An application involving the island of Mauritius is presented, whereby total tourist arrivals are modeled. The findings show that tourists from Europe/America and Asia are particularly sensitive to the island’s transport infrastructure. Those from Europe/America are also sensitive to its nontransport infrastructure. Both types of infrastructure, as well as income of tourists, distance, and relative prices are important ingredients in their own respect in the tourism demand equation. Mauritius is an expanding destination, with the European and American markets being most promising.     

Examining the link between meetings,incentive, exhibitions,and conventions (MICE) and tourism demand using generalized methods of moments (GMM): the case of Singapore

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the impact of meetings, incentive, exhibitions, and conventions (MICE) on tourism demand in Singapore over a period of 10 years (2003–2012). Past studies have shown that MICE matters a great deal to host destinations but researchers have rarely conducted any empirical research to verify the significance of this sector to tourism demand. Our study intends to fill the gap by using Difference and System generalized methods of moments (GMM) estimators for dynamic panel models. Tourism demand is measured by tourist arrivals from the top 30 origins, and the influence of real income of the tourist generating country and real exchange rate is also examined. The GMM results show a significant positive relationship between tourism demand and MICE (with international meetings as proxies). Additionally, the findings reveal that tourism demand growth is significantly positive (negative) with respect to changes in income (relative prices). The coefficient of lagged tourist arrivals indicates a high level of habit persistence and revisiting.     

中国旅游全要素生产率差异与收敛实证研究

本文利用非参数DEA—Malmquist指数方法测算了2001～2009年中国省际旅游全要素生产率,并进行生产率指数分解,对中国旅游全要素生产率时序变化和区域差异进行了分析,之后又利用经济增长收敛理论对中国旅游全要素生产率进行了盯和口收敛性检验。实证研究结果表明,中国旅游全要素生产率年均增长12．7％,其中,技术进步创新率为6．7％,技术效率增长5．6％,技术进步是中国旅游全要素生产率增长的主要源泉;中国旅游全要素生产率存在显著的时空差异性;中国旅游全要素生产率并不存在显著矿收敛和条件18收敛,但存在显著绝对卢收敛,说明中国各地区旅游全要素生产率差距正在逐步缩小,最终收敛于相同的稳态均衡水平,然而由于中国旅游业发展尚未达到成熟阶段,所以现阶段中国旅游全要素生产率增长尚未找到自身合适的条件收敛路径。     

Different tourists to different destinations. Evidence from spatial interaction models

Given the importance of tourism as a catalyst for local economic growth, the identification of tourist flows determinants is also important. This paper reports results from an econometric study of tourism flows for the 107 Italian provinces based on origin–destination (OD) spatial interaction models. In addition to distance, the set of explanatory variables includes both pull and push characteristics to assess their relative roles in determining the attractiveness of the provinces to tourists. Hence measures are incorporated for income, density, accessibility, and natural, cultural and recreational attractions. The main results indicate the importance of spatial dependency induced by neighbouring provinces as both origins of, and destinations for trips, a factor commonly overlooked by previous contributions relying on the gravity specification. Inter-neighbouring interactive effects are thus important, and most explanatory variables exhibit the expected effect, with distance and population density showing a negative impact on tourists' decisions when choosing a specific destination, while income, accessibility and attractions are crucial determinants of tourism flows.