颠覆性双元创新对数字产业技术融合的影响研究——市场与技术的联动效应

颠覆性创新是数字产业突破在位企业封锁,掌握技术主导权的核心动力。多维度的颠覆性创新政策能否真正促进数字产业技术融合度的提升,行业中其他企业又扮演何种角色？本文围绕技术与市场两个维度,基于数字产业中具有代表性智能制造业的研究数据,运用双元创新理论,探讨探索与利用两种颠覆性技术创新政策影响数字产业技术融合的异同,以及技术距离在其中的作用机制;并比较颠覆性技术双元和颠覆性市场双元之间不同的联动效应。采用逐步回归进行实证检验,研究发现：(1)颠覆性技术探索对技术融合度有显著的正向影响,且技术距离正向调节颠覆性技术探索与技术融合度间关系;(2)颠覆性技术利用与技术融合度呈倒U型关系,且技术距离正向调节颠覆性技术利用与技术融合度间关系;(3)不同的颠覆性技术创新和颠覆性市场创新联动关系对企业技术融合有着截然不同的影响,具体来说,在企业选定颠覆性技术探索战略的情境下,颠覆性市场双元对数字产业技术融合度不会产生明显的促进或抑制作用;在企业选定颠覆性技术利用战略的情境下,颠覆性市场探索对数字产业技术融合度表现出更为明显的促进作用。     

创业支持政策对科技型小微企业孵化的影响

结合资源依赖理论和组织学习理论，探索创业支持政策、资源整合与科技型小微企业孵化之间的关系。研究结果表明，金融支持对技术资源整合具有显著影响，而对市场资源整合的影响不显著；政府政策支持对技术资源整合无显著影响，而对市场资源整合具有显著影响；营造创业氛围对技术资源整合和市场资源整合均具有显著影响；技术资源整合和市场资源整合对科技型小微企业孵化具有显著影响。研究结论对现有创业支持政策作出了科学论证，也为创业支持政策为何能够推动科技型小微企业成功孵化提供了一个较为合理的解释框架，进一步丰富了创业支持政策影响小微企业孵化的相关理论。     

Entry and Innovation in Maturing Markets: Virtual Operators in Mobile Telecommunications

In the last few years the mobile telecommunications industry has witnessed the entry of a large number of new service providers. Traditionally, mobile users get their mobile services from the service providers owned by vertically integrated mobile network operators (MNOs). The new entrants do not own a network of their own however, because they use the existing mobile infrastructure, i.e. they are 'mobile virtual network operators' (MVNOs). By granting these virtual operators access to their networks, MNOs actually facilitate the entry of potential competitors for their own downstream service providers. These new entrants might attract additional users by offering competitive services and create extra value with their well-known brand names and other complementary assets. This study focuses on the mobile market of the Netherlands, where competition is intense and MVNOs proliferate. The aim of this research is to improve our understanding of the entry of virtual operators in general, and specifically by explaining why and how virtual operators enter the mobile market and the impact they have on competition in the mobile market.     

Firms' Technological Trajectories and the Creation of Foreign Subsidiaries

Multinational firms are traditionally considered as firms possessing some technological lead and which are exploiting this proprietary advantage in international markets, but a growing literature has been arguing that multinational firms set up foreign subsidiaries not only as a means to exploit their own technology but also to enrich it. This paper provides some empirical evidence for this. The aim of the paper is to assess the effects of the creation of foreign subsidiaries on firms' technological trajectories.The idea is that by setting up subsidiaries in foreign countries, multinational firms can achieve some form of reverse technology transfer that can be expected to affect their technological trajectories.The empirical investigation uses data from 1992 to 1996 for a sample of 2185 Italian manufacturing firms. Results support the view that the creation of manufacturing subsidiaries has a positive impact on firms' productivity trajectories and this positive impact is greater when subsidiaries are created in regions where knowledge spillovers are expected to be relatively higher, such as the US.     

Media use and life satisfaction: the moderating role of social events

This study investigates whether and how social events, which have specific impact levels and consequences, influence the relationships between the use of different types of media and media users’ life satisfaction. The impact levels refer to the number of impact factors, which characterize social events (relevance, non-polarization, certainty, radicalness and proximity). The consequences, in turn, refer to the outcomes for media users (positive or negative outcomes). The results are based on data from the Standard Eurobarometer survey (N = 73,860) as well as on data from a content analysis and cover 36 social events in 13 European countries over a time period of 6 years. The moderated moderation analysis reveals that social events only influence the effects of the use of more interactive media types (the internet and social network sites) on media users’ life satisfaction, but they don’t influence the effects of the use of less interactive media types (written press, radio and TV) on media users’ life satisfaction. In fact, social events with positive consequences increase these effects, while social events with negative consequences buffer these effects. Previous research has investigated how the use of different types of media or specific social events affect people’s life satisfaction. This study contributes to the literature by revealing how social events and media use interact and thereby influence media users’ life satisfaction.     

Diffusion, substitution and competition dynamism inside the ICT market: The case of Japan

Under the new information society paradigm that emerged in the 1990s, contrary to its conspicuous achievement as an industrial society, Japan is experiencing a vicious cycle between non-elastic institutions and insufficient utilization of the potential benefits of information and communication technology (ICT).However, a dramatic deployment of mobile telephones with Internet access service such as NTT DoCoMo's i-mode service in the late 1990s provides encouragement that, once the potential is exploited, Japan's institutional systems can effectively stimulate the self-propagating nature of ICT. The rapid deployment of Internet Protocol (IP) mobile service in Japan can be attributed to worldwide advances in the utilization of personal computers (PCs) and the Internet. Thus, a complex technology web triggered by the dramatic advancement of PCs and the Internet and co-evolving diffusion, substitution and competition dynamism has emerged in the global ICT market, particularly in Japan's mobile communication business.The above observations prompt the hypothetical view that, despite a lack of institutional elasticity, recent advances in Japan's IP mobile service deployment can be attributed to a co-evolutionary dynamism between diffusion, substitution and competition inside the ICT market. Thus, policy questions could be how to create such a co-evolutionary dynamism by means of ICT innovation, enriched functions, reduced price and competitive environment.In order to demonstrate the foregoing hypothesis, an empirical analysis of the mechanism co-evolving diffusion, substitution and competition dynamism inside Japan's ICT market is attempted by utilizing four types of diffusion models identical to respective diffusion dynamics.     

The Role of Multinational Corporations and National States in the Globalization of Innovatory Capacity: The European Perspective

The recent ability of multinational corporations (MNCs) to develop integrated technological networks, increasingly motivated within Europe by the further progress of economic integration, is argued to affect and be affected by national technological competitiveness. This paper examines the precise geographical dispersion of technological activity in Europe by the largest MNCs, and the potential impact of those MNCs on the level and structure of the technological capacity of European home and host countries, using data on patents granted to the world largest firms in the US. Since the late 1980s, the majority of the technological activity conducted in foreign-owned research facilities located in Europe, has taken place in affiliates of European-owned companies. This paper examines whether the much higher degree of internationalization of corporate technology in European MNCs than in their US or Japanese counterparts is attributable to cross-border activity within Europe, or extends to European-owned research facilities in the US and Japan. While intra-European activity matters more for Dutch, Belgian and Swedish MNCs (and in the electrical equipment and computing industries), whose strategies are substantially based on corporate European integration, investments in the US are of greater significance for French and Swiss companies, and of the greatest importance for German and British firms (and in the chemical and pharmaceutical industries), representing a more widely 'globalized' technological strategy.     

Technological change: A microeconomic approach to the creation of knowledge

Technological change does not evolve in a purely normative economic way. Economic selection has a guiding impact on technology evolution, but the generic element of novelty does not necessarily follow economic utility. In general, market selection is predominant in economic thinking and it is also implicit in the literature on technological change. Using a microeconomic approach to the creation of knowledge, this paper shows that the generic (Schumpeterian) element of the emergence of novelty – economic selection being absent – may create structures, paradigms and trajectories, which we usually look at from a market selection perspective. This paper does not try to make predictions on trajectories, but it qualifies a standard evolutionary perspective.     

移动互联技术背景下知识型员工角色整合与创新

移动互联技术突破了社会角色的时间、空间、物理及心理边界，对于角色整合呈强推态势，使知识型员工角色向整合化、去情景化、重叠化及组合化趋势发展，从而出现角色整合的职场新现象。移动技术互联互通的特性赋予了知识型员工角色整合新的内涵，即整合趋势下角色边界是一种弱边界，呈现出角色对比度低、柔性边界和渗透性等边界特征，并表现为移动办公的工作形式。在相关研究的基础上，分析移动互联技术背景下知识型员工角色整合的新内涵、影响因素、影响结果以及边界工作策略，构建角色整合研究框架，并进一步探析知识型员工角色整合测量、因素、作用，以及移动技术在角色整合过程中的效用评价。     

The Role of Multinational Corporations and National States in the Globalization of Innovatory Capacity: The European Perspective

The recent ability of multinational corporations (MNCs) to develop integrated technological networks, increasingly motivated within Europe by the further progress of economic integration, is argued to affect and be affected by national technological competitiveness. This paper examines the precise geographical dispersion of technological activity in Europe by the largest MNCs, and the potential impact of those MNCs on the level and structure of the technological capacity of European home and host countries, using data on patents granted to the world largest firms in the US. Since the late 1980s, the majority of the technological activity conducted in foreign-owned research facilities located in Europe, has taken place in affiliates of European-owned companies. This paper examines whether the much higher degree of internationalization of corporate technology in European MNCs than in their US or Japanese counterparts is attributable to cross-border activity within Europe, or extends to European-owned research facilities in the US and Japan. While intra-European activity matters more for Dutch, Belgian and Swedish MNCs (and in the electrical equipment and computing industries), whose strategies are substantially based on corporate European integration, investments in the US are of greater significance for French and Swiss companies, and of the greatest importance for German and British firms (and in the chemical and pharmaceutical industries), representing a more widely ‘globalized’ technological strategy.     

The time-frequency dependence of unemployment on real input prices: a wavelet coherency and partial coherency approach

ABSTRACT

While the dependence of unemployment on real oil price and real interest rate is an important issue that has been addressed only in the time dimension, little is known about the movements of real input prices and their impact on unemployment in the time-frequency space. With a continuous wavelet coherency and partial coherency approach and monthly data of Japan and US from January 1960 to May 2017, this paper contributes to the literature by examining the characteristics of the dependence of unemployment on real input prices across frequencies and over time. The empirical results indicate that: First, a rise in real oil price leads to productivity growth slowdown and unemployment increase at the scale of 16–64 months after 1990 for Japan and 8–24 months after 2005 for US. Second, an increase in real interest rate results in higher unemployment at the 16–32-month scale before 1974 for Japan and 8–64-month scale before 2000 for US. Third, the degree of integration between labour market and energy market in US is higher than that in Japan. This study provides time-frequency evidence to the supply side hypothesis about the relationships between input prices and unemployment.     

专利视角下人工智能领域技术机会分析

人工智能在全球范围内蓬勃兴起,并成为引领科技进步、推动产业升级的新引擎,受到各国政府和专家学者的高度重视。基于德温特创新索引数据库,从技术融合、创新主体、潜在市场3个维度,对人工智能领域的技术机会进行识别与分析。通过技术主题词共现分析,研究人工智能领域技术融合现状,识别出该领域核心技术;通过创新主体专利分析,识别出人工智能领域潜在技术竞争对手及优势方向,进而发现和拓展技术机会;通过同族专利的海外布局分析,挖掘人工智能技术潜在市场机会,从而为中国人工智能技术前瞻性布局与创新引导政策制定提供有益参考。     

Calling party pays or receiving party pays? The diffusion of mobile telephony with endogenous regulation

This paper analyzes the impact on mobile telephony diffusion patterns of the two predominant payment regimes, calling party pays (CPP) and receiving party pays (RPP), for mobile termination services. By applying instrumental variable techniques to panel data we account for a possible interdependency of penetration rates and regulatory interventions. For this purpose we use data on political and institutional factors to instrument endogenous regulatory decisions. We conclude from our empirical analysis that there is no significant impact of either RPP or CPP on penetration rates. Therefore an application of RPP in order to obviate regulation of termination fees would be feasible.     

The forecasting of the mobile Internet in Taiwan by diffusion model

From the government's perspective, it is very important to estimate the growing path of the mobile Internet market and then to forecast the trend. The purpose of this paper is to propose a diffusion model that reveals the growth pattern of the mobile Internet subscriber in Taiwan utilizing the concepts of the “technical substitution” and the “multi-product competition”, which suits the characteristics in the mobile Internet market in Taiwan. From the regression results, the estimated ultimate market potential of GPRS is 6.4 million, which is going to saturate in about 2008Q1. On the other hand, the estimated range of the market potential of PHS/3G is about 7.2 to 8.0 million. That is, the total mobile Internet market in Taiwan is forecasted to be around 13.6 to 14.4 million subscribers.     

广义轨道理论探讨

本文认为,不仅存在技术轨道,而且存在其他轨道,如市场轨道、技术组织轨道、商业模式轨道、业务组合轨道等。由此提出广义轨道理论,以期扩展技术轨道理论,为后发企业的追赶提供更宽广的机会空间,为处于追赶阶段的我国产业和企业的创新战略实施提供新的启示。     

放松电信管制对日本移动通信市场发展的影响

本文分析了日本移动通信领域的管制改革及其对移动通信市场发展的影响。基于垄断竞争模型的分析表明,移动电话服务商的个数和移动电话服务的边际成本,是影响日本移动通信的需求和价格的关键因素。以移动通信市场自由化为目标的一系列管制改革,刺激了移动通信服务商的增加,降低了移动通信服务商的边际成本,从而促进日本移动电话通信市场的蓬勃发展。基于1991—1999年期间季度数据的经济计量模型,证实放松电信管制对移动通信服务的价格和需求量都有显著影响。此外,本文还推测了移动电话通信的需求曲线和价格弹性。     

Network technologies,communication externalities and total factor productivity

The main aim of this paper is to determine the factors which enhance or temper firms’ private incentives to use communications technologies that are characterised by network externalities and allow firms to influence their rate of technological change or total factor productivity (TFP). As regards the impact of the network effect on TFP, we find that when the externality parameter is low, a slightly negative effect appears, but this effect is reversed when the externality is higher. This relationship is valid regardless of the number of firms. Our result is particularly interesting because it offers a possible explanation for the Solow productivity paradox. We conclude that, in addition to the degree of network effects, market structure, consumer preferences and the number of users also have a very important influence on TFP and technological change.     

The economics of korean unification

We simulate the impact of a customs union and an exchange rate unification of North and South Korea. Factor mobility and technological change are of critical importance. If factor markets do not integrate, the macroeconomic impact on South Korea of economic integration is relatively small, while the effects on North Korea are large. With factor market integration, there is a significant impact on the South Korean income and wealth distribution. If integration is accompanied by external capital inflows, there is a significnt appreciation of the real exchange rate with deleterious implications for the South Korean traded-goods sector.     

Rapid Technology Change, ‘Technological Visions’, Corporate Organisation And Market Structure

This paper is a contribution to the analysis of how rapid technology change influences market structure. The paper uses a simple simulation model to explore the effects of four main factors on the development of market structure. These are: (1) the variance (or unpredictability) of the technology trajectory; (2) the speed with which the organisation's ‘technological vision’ adjusts to ongoing technological developments; (3) the absorptive capacity of each division in the multi-divisional firm to experience gained in other divisions; (4) the extent to which competence-destroying innovations generate greater cost penalties for the division of a multi-divisional firm than for a comparable mono-divisional firm. Simultion results are obtained for 100 technological trajectories, and a variety of parameterisations. While there is a tendency for noisier trajectories to disadvantage the larger multi-divisional firm, there are conditions under which such a firm benefits from a noisy technological environment. When competence-destorying innovations affect the division of a multi-divisional firm no worse than the comparable mono-divisional firm, the multi-divisional firm is not disproportionately affected by a noisy trajectory. It may, however, be seriously damaged by a slow adjustment of technological vision, especially when all scale economies are dynamic (rather than static). The simulations confirm that the absorptive capacity of each division to experience from others can be critical in determining the ultimate market structure. A brief empirical motivation for the model is offered by reference to some case studies of the semiconductor industry.     

Integration Among Asia‐Pacific and International Stock Markets: Common Stochastic Trends and Regime Shifts

Are stock markets in the Asia‐Pacific region integrated with each other and with the US and Japan? The paper examines a number of common stochastic trends among stock prices in the US, Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. If integration exists it is a fairly recent phenomenon. Institutional and economic considerations suggest the same is true so that a single common stochastic trend among Asian and North American markets is a recent phenomenon. The reason is that the stock markets studied were only recently sufficiently liberalized to permit some form of integration to emerge. Also, not only was the 1987 stock market crash significant, but the 1991 Gulf War also signalled a turning point in the degree of stock market integration among the countries studied.