社会结构、市场结构与企业技术创新

本文建立了一个基于社会结构与市场结构的技术创新系统模型,来解释企业的技术创新行为,认为企业是社会网络中的一个行动者,其技术创新行为是一种社会行动,它会受到人际关系和社会结构的影响.作为一种结果,社会结构会影响市场结构,从而两者共同作用于企业的技术创新过程.在这个过程中,对企业的社会资本分析是非常重要的.推动社会结构、市场结构与技术创新活动的协调发展是深化我国经济体制改革进而提升企业技术创新竞争力的重要途径.     

Long-run estimates of interfuel and interfactor elasticities

Meta-analyses of interfuel and capital-energy elasticities of substitution show that elasticity estimates are dependent on the type of data − time series, panel, or cross-section − and the estimators used. Econometric theory suggests that the between estimator might generate the best estimates of long-run elasticities but no existing estimates of elasticities of substitution have used it. Alternatively, Chirinko et al. argued in favor of estimating long-run elasticities of substitution using a long-run difference estimator. We provide estimates of China’s interfuel and interfactor elasticities of substitution using the between and long-run difference estimators. To address potential omitted variables bias, we add province level inefficiency and national technological change terms to our regression model. The results show that demand for coal and electricity in China is very inelastic, while demand for diesel and gasoline is elastic. With the exception of gasoline and diesel, there are limited substitution possibilities among the fuels. Substitution possibilities are greater between energy and labor than between energy and capital. The results are quite different to some previous studies for China but coincide well with the patterns found in meta-analyses for long-run estimates of elasticities of substitution.     

Structural and geographical patterns of knowledge networks in emerging technological standards: evidence from the European GNSS industry

The concentration and dispersion of innovative activities in space have been largely explained and evidenced by the nature of knowledge and the geographical extent of knowledge spillovers. One of the empirical challenges is to go beyond this by understanding how the geography of innovation is shaped by particular structural properties of knowledge networks. This paper contributes to this challenge, focusing on the particular case of global navigation satellite systems at the European level. We exploit a database of R&D collaborative projects based on the fifth and sixth European Union Framework Programs, and apply social network analysis in economic geography. We study the properties both of the network of organizations and the network of collaborative projects. We show that the nature of the knowledge involved in relationships influences the geographical and structural organizations of the technological field. The observed coexistence of a relational core/periphery structure with a geographical cluster/pipeline one is discussed in the light of the industrial and geographical dynamics of technological standards.     

Managing technological and social uncertainties of innovation: The evolution of Brazilian energy and agriculture

This paper explores how technological, commercial and social uncertainties shaped the development of Brazilian biofuels. Technological innovation allowed the country to emerge as a global leader, but Brazil continues to struggle with major social uncertainties due to poverty and environmental concerns common in many emerging economies. Contemporary approaches to development within the innovation literature focus primarily on overcoming technological and commercial uncertainties, but only peripherally explore social uncertainties. To fill this void, we draw on Martin and Hall's framework for managing innovative uncertainties, which is based on Kuhn and Popper's approaches to the evolution and methodology of science, and extend it with Aldrich and Fiol's concept of cognitive versus socio-political legitimacy. Based on qualitative data collected in Brazil, we outline the evolution of automotive fuel ethanol and flex-fuel technology, the development of Brazilian soybean production, and castor for socially inclusive biodiesel production. We show how innovation solved some technological and commercial uncertainties and generated new opportunities, but also created additional social uncertainties that are now being addressed. Through this process, Brazil has acquired capabilities in alternative energy technologies and more sustainable agriculture, becoming an exemplar for other emerging economies. We conclude with implications for policy and industry.     

The effect of artificial intelligence on China’s labor market

ABSTRACT

Automation and artificial intelligence technology have played a pivotal role in today’s economic and social development. They represent a labor-substituted technological progress, featuring more and more jobs to be replaced by AI. Based on the adoption rate calculated in our paper and theoretical substitution probability estimated by existing studies, our research estimates the actual substitution probability by AI for various occupations in China. By using this actual substitution probability on occupation level, we also explore the substitution effects on labor force with different characteristics and find that AI has larger substitution impacts on labors of female, old age, low education and low income. We also predict the number of employed people that would be replaced by AI in each industry, and the results show that China will have 278 million labors (201 ~ 333 million under different adoption rates) replaced by AI by 2049, representing 35.8% of the current employment in China.

Abbreviation: Artificial intelligence (AI), internet of things (IoT), Council of Economic Advisers (CEA)     

Strategic responses to fuel cell hype and disappointment

This article investigates the interplay of expectation dynamics and innovation processes at the level of organizations and at the innovation system level. We examine how different kinds of organizations contributed and responded to a recent hype and disappointment cycle in the field of stationary fuel cells. Among others, we trace how innovation and discourse activities changed and we explain the observed differences in strategic responses. We show that the sensitivity of organizations to expectation dynamics depends on at least three factors: the strategic embedding of the new technology, the organization's dependence on external legitimacy and its role in the innovation system. Moreover, we show that – in their aggregation – strategic responses affected the level of the technological innovation system as well. Not only did the pace and direction of innovation activities change, but structures such as actor constellations and institutions were also modified. Our study thus provides insights into the interplay of expectation and innovation dynamics, which is important for our understanding of larger transformation processes, e.g. toward more sustainable modes of energy supply.     

Unemployment, Factor Substitution and Capital Formation

Abstract. We incorporate a wage-bargaining structure in a dynamic general equilibrium model and show how this feature changes short- and long-run properties of equilibria compared with a perfectly competitive setting. We discuss how employment, capital and income shares respond to wage-setting shocks and show that adjustment dynamics depend decisively on the magnitude of the elasticity of substitution between labour and capital. Values of the elasticity below unity add persistence, tend to preserve stability and lead to empirically plausible adjustment patterns. By contrast, values above unity introduce additional volatility, thereby making steady states potentially unstable.     

Industry and the Family: Two Engines of Growth

We generalize the class of endogenous growth models in which the scale of the economy has level rather than growth effects, and study the implications of different demographic and technological factors when both fertility choice and research effort are endogenous. The model incorporates two dimensions of technological progress: vertical (quality of goods) and horizontal (variety of goods). Both dimensions contribute to productivity growth but are driven by different processes and hence respond differently to changes in fundamentals. Specifically, while unbounded vertical progress is feasible, the scale of the economy limits the variety of goods. Incorporating a linearity in reproduction generates steady-state population growth and variety expansion. We thus have two engines of growth generating dynamics that we compare with observed changes in demographics, market structure, and patterns of growth. Numerical solutions yield the important insight that, while endogenous, fertility responds very little to industrial policies. Demographic shocks, in contrast, have substantial effects on growth.     

Trust and reciprocity in inter-individual versus inter-group interactions: The effects of social influence, group dynamics, and perspective biases

Using an experimental trust game, I examine whether the perspectives and behavior of group representatives and consensus groups differ from those of the same individuals in an analogous inter-individual situation. A primary goal of this research is to extend past work on trust and reciprocity by examining the impact of the social contexts within which social interactions are characteristically embedded. Specifically, this research concerns whether norms and dynamics of trust and reciprocity differ in the contexts of inter-individual and inter-group interactions. First, I examine whether dynamics of trust and reciprocity differ in various inter-group interactions where inter-group decisions are operationalized as 1) autonomous group representatives, i.e., individuals who are given the responsibility of unilaterally making a decision on behalf of a three-person group engaging with a group representative of another such group; and 2) consensus groups, i.e., group members making a consensus trust or reciprocity decision for their groups via a collective process with another such group. Results of these studies show that 1) people trust less and reciprocate less when responsible for a group or organizational decision as autonomous group representatives; 2) consensus groups do not differ from individuals in their level of trust but show dramatically less reciprocity. The group consensus mechanism in fact produced by far the lowest reciprocity level, significantly lower than that exhibited by either individuals or autonomous group representatives. Thus, inter-group trust and reciprocity dynamics are not readily inferable from their inter-individual counterparts. Moreover, an important implication is emerging here: the extent and direction of the discrepancy between individual and group choices in regard to trust and reciprocity levels and possibly other social preferences in general may depend importantly on the precise details of the group decision-making mechanism, for example whether decisions are made consensually, by majority vote, or by a group leader or representative. In addition to examining the level of trust and reciprocity that occur in these various situations, I also studied, using both behavioral and questionnaire data, the roles of self-interest, social influence, and group dynamics in trust and reciprocity perceptions and behavior. The results showed that there exist discrepancies between behavioral forecasts and the actual behavior, and that trusting behavior is driven strongly by expectation of level of reciprocation, while reciprocating behavior is driven strongly by the difference between trust expectation and actual trust received.     

New venture planning: The role of technological forecasting

A system for the analysis and planning of new ventures is developed which provides a structure for the application of logical, mathematical, and scientific procedures to decision problems which (1) involve a significant portion of an organization's resources, (2) have long term effects on a firm's future success, and (3) are characterized by uncertainty in many of the factors important to the decision. The system is based on a synthesis of various analytical techniques from the fields of technological forecasting, decision analysis, and system dynamics, and provides a general methodology for rank-ordering new venture candidates and determining the resource allocation level required for new venture portfolios designed to achieve long term growth objectives. The role played by technological forecasting in new venture planning and in the selection of engineering projects is discussed.     

Let's Get Real: A Factor Analytical Approach to Disaggregated Business Cycle Dynamics

This paper develops a method for analysing the dynamics of large cross-sections based on a factor analytic model. We use "law of large numbers" arguments to show that the number of common factors can be determined by a principal components method, the economy-wide shocks can be identified by means of simple structural VAR techniques and that the parameters of the unobserved factor model can be estimated consistently by applying OLS equation by equation. We distinguish between a technological and a non-technological shock. Identification is obtained by minimizing the negative realizations of the technology shock. Empirical results on 4-digit industrial output and productivity for the U.S. economy from 1958 to 1986 show that: (1) at least two economy-wide shocks, both having a long-run effect on sectoral output, are needed to explain the common dynamics; (2) although the technological shock accounts for at least 50 per cent of the aggregate dynamics of output, it cannot by itself explain dynamics at business cycle frequencies; (3) sector-specific shocks explain the main bulk of total variance but generate mainly high frequency dynamics; (4) both the technological and the non-technological component of output show a peak for positive sectoral comovements of output at business cycle frequencies; (5) technological shocks are strongly correlated with the growth rates of the investment in machinery and equipment sectors and their inputs.     

Patterns of expectations for emerging sustainable technologies

Innovation is characterized by uncertainties, high risks, large investments and late returns on investment which make it a complex process. This is particularly true for sustainable innovation where market forces alone cannot be relied upon to realize the desired transitions. Insight in the dynamics of such innovation processes is necessary in order to influence technological change toward a more sustainable direction. However, few instruments and indicators are available to assess the performance of emerging technological innovation systems. In this phase competition often takes place based on expectations rather than on technological performance. This paper therefore focuses on the expectation patterns of technological innovation systems in the exploratory phase through the analysis of the expectation dynamics of three emerging technologies in the field of sustainable mobility within the Netherlands: biofuels, hydrogen as a transport fuel and natural gas as a transport fuel. These technologies do not only compete with the current fossil-fuel based system but also with each other. We have collected over 5000 expectation events regarding these technologies for the period 2000–2008 and discuss the insights generated by the comparison of the observed expectation dynamics to theoretical patterns.     

Characterizing the emergence of a technological field: Expectations, agendas and networks in Lab-on-a-chip technologies

In this paper we develop and use mapping tools to investigate emerging technological fields by studying the dynamics of expectations, agenda building and early networks. In our approach, expectations describe shared beliefs with regard to prospective entities and positions. Agendas are sets of priorities present to guide the actors in their work. The structure that arises as a result of the actions and interactions of actors is the emerging network. For emerging technologies these processes are susceptible to change and the technological paths that may arise are still easy to influence. We propose that not only looking at expectation dynamics, but also including agenda setting and networks dynamics is essential in order to successfully capture the complexities of the emergence of technological paths. A major challenge for this work lies in unveiling the socio-technical dynamics leading to path emergence. For this purpose we investigate the phenomena of irreversibilities that emerge during the ongoing interactions of researchers, institutes, policy makers and firms. With these aspects in mind, we will use a broadened view of expectation dynamics in order to arrive at an improved understanding of the building blocks of path emergence. We illustrate our approach with a case study of Lab-on-a-chip technology for medical and pharmaceutical applications.     

Structure and use of the Integrated World Model

Most global models address quantitative aspects of socioeconomic behavior as extrapolated from an assumed initial global set of states. This paper describes a model designed to include explicit decision criteria based on the user's ethical persuasions. The regional structure of the model permits simulation of differing sets of social emphases at the level of nations or political groupings of nations. The model may be thought of as an intermediate stage in a long-range trend toward development of interactive decision modeling systems which incorporate several different modeling concepts into a larger user-interactive system.     

The complementary nature of technological capabilities: Measurement and robustness issues

The application of composite indicators to complex phenomena in social science has come to remarkable prominence. As a result, they have been widely applied in wide-ranging fields. This paper explores the application of a composite indicator of technological capabilities that can be also valid for composite indicators in other fields. We focus on whether different methodologies to build composite indicators lead to different results. The arithmetic mean to aggregate technological capabilities variables has been widely criticized, as it allows for perfect substitutability between variables, thus disregarding the complementary nature of technological capabilities. We introduce a new aggregation rule, the concave mean, in order to take into account the complementarity argument in a Science-Technology-Innovation context. Using a dataset for 138 countries, we show that the arithmetic mean is biased in principle but robust in practice. This depends upon the fact that technologically more advanced countries tend to have a more complementary structure in their technological capabilities compared to less developed nations.     

高参与工作系统和组织创新绩效:社会资本的中介作用

根据前人的研究,本文提出了社会资本存在结构、认知和情感三个维度。在此基础上,本文提出了高参与工作系统对企业绩效的作用机制模型。通过实证研究发现,高参与工作系统通过员工和组织间的信任关系对创新绩效产生了积极影响。然而,当认知信任很高的时候,由于搭便车、过度投资等原因,认知信任的上升反而会降低企业绩效。情感信任对组织创新绩效一直具有积极的影响。以往在中国情境下进行的研究发现,高参与工作系统更有利于提高人际网络联系的紧密程度,从而不利于结构洞的形成和组织创新的发生。虽然本文没有发现高参与工作系统对人际网络紧密程度的影响,但是发现人际网络紧密程度对于创新绩效的负向影响。因此,对于中国企业而言,高参与工作系统可能是一个悖论。虽然高参与工作系统可以提高组织信任关系和相互忠诚,但也降低了结构洞和弱联系网络的形成。     

技术资本：概念辨析、知识结构与分析框架

技术资本是一种新型、独立的资本形态，是技术加速转化为生产力并创造更多价值的重要途径，对加快数字经济发展具有重要意义。在回顾国内外相关研究的基础上，首先拓展技术资本的概念内涵，明确其价值增值的目标属性；然后，运用知识图谱分析方法对技术资本研究的知识结构进行可视化分析，发现现有研究主要形成技术视角、资本视角和技术资本化过程的3种进路；随后，进一步构建一个整合式分析框架，从驱动因素、生成机制、作用机理和影响效果4个方面建立全局性视角，以把握技术资本研究情况；最后，从完善测量方法，探析技术资本与数字经济、数字技术关联等方面提出可行的研究方向。结论有助于阶段性厘清国内外技术资本研究进展，为未来更深入的分析提供参考。     

Properties of knowledge base and firm survival: Evidence from a sample of French manufacturing firms

The paper analyzes the effects of the properties of firms' knowledge base on the survival likelihood of firms. Drawing upon the analysis of the patterns of co-occurrence of technological classes in patent applications, we derive the coherence, variety and cognitive distance indexes, accounting respectively for technological complementarity, differentiation and dissimilarity in the firms' patent portfolios. The results of our analysis are in line with the previous literature, showing that innovation enhances the survival likelihood of firms. In addition, we show that the search strategies at work in the development of firms' knowledge base matter in reducing the likelihood of a failure event. Knowledge coherence and variety appear to be positively related to firms' survival, while cognitive distance exerts a negative effect. We conclude that firms able to exploit the accumulated technological competences have more chances to be successful in competing durably in the market arena, and derive some policy implications concerning the role of public intervention in the orientation of search efforts in local contexts.     

Bounded interpersonal inferences and decision making

Summary. Individual decision making is based on predictions about other players' choices as well as on valuations of reactions to predictions. In this sense, a player has a prediction-decision criterion for decision making. We develop a theory of prediction-decision criteria, which enables us to capture new phenomena on individual decision making in games. The decision making situation is described in the epistemic logic GL of shallow depths. There, each player considers his and other players' decision making down to some shallow depths. It is a point of our theory to investigate inferential complexities of interpersonal introspections. In particular, we can discuss a minimal epistemic inferential structure for prediction-decision making. We will find parallel structures in decision making and prediction making, which is called an inner parallelism. The climax of the paper is the consideration of inner parallelisms of prediction-decision making. Received: August 31, 2000; revised version: April 9, 2001