Roadmapping a disruptive technology: A case study: The emerging microsystems and top-down nanosystems industry

If technological roadmapping is important in the process of rapid technology commercialization, and if a method tailored to roadmapping nascent disruptive technologies does not exist, and if these very same disruptive technologies portend to be the future economic engines for firms, countries, and regions, then there is cause for concern. This article seeks to shed some light on the process in industrial disruptive technology roadmapping by focusing on the fundamental differences between sustaining and disruptive technologies. This article investigates the utility of theoretical and practitioner traditional technology roadmapping tools in an international industrial roadmapping effort focusing on microtechnology and top-down nanotechnology. I then modify the traditional technology roadmapping approaches generating a model for an industrial worldwide disruptive technology roadmapping process. I utilize the International Industrial Microsystems and Top-Down Nanosystems Roadmap (IIMTDNR) effort, which included nearly 400 people, from nearly as many firms, from over five continents and was developed over a 5-year period. The IIMTDNR process is used to provide the basis for a model for a commercial disruptive technology roadmapping process.     

QTIP: Quick technology intelligence processes

Empirical technology analyses need not take months; they can be done in minutes. One can thereby take advantage of wide availability of rich science and technology publication and patent abstract databases to better inform technology management. To do so requires developing templates of innovation indicators to answer standard questions. Then, one can automate routines to generate composite information representations (“one-pagers”) that address the issues at hand, the way that the target users want.     

The empirical analysis of the determinants for environmental technological change: A research agenda

Technological change is usually considered a necessary albeit not sufficient condition for a transition to sustainability. However, the empirical analysis of the determinants to environmental technological change has not received too much attention in the environmental/ecological economics literature and many open questions remain in this context. Based on a careful review of the literature, this paper argues that further analysis should address several issues at different levels: i.e., regarding the conceptual framework, the thematic scope of the studies, some methodological issues and other aspects related to the environmental policy variable. First, an integrated conceptual framework which takes into account the interplay between relevant variables influencing environmental technological change (i.e., factors internal and external to the firm and characteristics of the environmental technologies) and all the stages of this process, with a greater emphasis on the invention stage, should be developed. Other aspects should then be tackled, including a focus on several themes (i.e., a greater attention to cross-sectoral technologies, the barriers to different types of environmental technologies, the international dimension of environmental technological change and environmental technological change in small and medium size enterprises), methodological issues (combination of case studies and econometric modelling) and several issues related to the environmental policy variable.     

Linking technology intelligence to open innovation

The explosive growth of the Internet has led to a dramatic increase in data sources for (competitive) technology intelligence. Appropriate implementation and use of IT tools to gather and analyze these data is of key importance for the creation of actionable technology intelligence. A strategy to optimize investments in the identified technologies becomes of paramount importance if an organization wants to match knowledge and ideas originating from outside of the organization with internal core competences. Such a strategy can create competitive advantage by effectively linking technology intelligence to open innovation.We show how VIB, a life sciences research organization, has established technology intelligence processes to identify a multitude of external technologies of interest, which are subsequently “probed” for their potential and fit with VIB using real options reasoning, thereby supporting open innovation. Our methodology may be useful for other organizations which are considering implementing open innovation approaches.     

Ex ante identification of disruptive innovations in the software industry applied to web applications: The case of Microsoft's vs. Google's office applications

This paper analyzes the question whether web applications pose a disruptive threat to incumbents or a disruptive growth opportunity for entrants in the application software industry using a novel method for ex ante identification of disruptive innovations in the software industry. Building on the theory of disruptive innovations, network effects and existing frameworks for the ex ante identification of disruptive innovations a new method of analysis is deduced. The analysis is based on a list of criteria that indicate a disruptive innovation and trajectory maps of the technologies' performance attributes. This method is applied to study the potential disruption of Microsoft's desktop office applications by Google's web-based office applications.The chosen method of analysis indicates a small likelihood for web applications to pose a disruptive threat to Microsoft, and by extension, to incumbents in the software industry. While web applications show a potential to satisfy market demand in established performance attributes, strong network effects in existing software products should give incumbents enough time to co-opt the innovation. The case illustrates how our new method to analyze disruptive potential in the software industry ex ante can help to apply the theory of disruptive innovation better for forecasting purposes and to provide novel strategic insights for the players involved.     

Technological innovation strategy: how do technology life cycles change by technological area

Discussions on the patterns of technological innovation have significant implications in terms of the efficient distribution of national R&D resources and the establishment of corporate managerial strategies. This study is focused on calculating and analysing technology cycle time (TCT) by technological area based on patent data that can be used as easily accessible objective indicators for the purpose of modelling the patterns of technological innovation by period and technological area. The main technological areas handled by the study include medical science, vehicles, metallurgy, and computing. Of the patent data registered with the United States Patent and Trademark Office from 1990 to 2014, International Patent Classification sub-class codes representing each technological area were selected to collect patent data, and to generate TCT statistics every five years. The TCT statistics generated is interpreted as the technological life cycle, to be used in modelling technological innovation patterns individualised by technology and period.     

A patent-based cross impact analysis for quantitative estimation of technological impact: The case of information and communication technology

The increasing syntheses and interactions between various technologies increase the usefulness of cross impact analysis (CIA) as a method for forecasting and analyzing them. Conventional CIA depends on an expert's qualitative judgment or intuition and thus it is difficult to evaluate quantitatively the impact of one technology on another. In this study, we employ patent analysis in CIA to examine such impacts between technologies based on multiple patent classifications. Patent information is used for facilitating quantitative and systematic approach in CIA. The distinctive feature and main contribution of the proposed approach is the overcoming of the limitations of conventional CIA, by employing conditional probabilities based on the patent information. The classification of patents, particularly the multiple classifications, is used to evaluate the relationships between technologies. As an illustration, a patent-based CIA with information and communication technologies (ICTs) was conducted. Firstly, the patent-based cross impact among ICTs was calculated. Secondly, the technology pairs were classified based on the cross impact score between ICTs. Thirdly, a cross impact network was constructed to identify the complex relation among ICTs. Finally, the changes in cross impact scores between technologies over time were analyzed. The results of this research are expected to help practitioners to forecast future trends and to develop better R&D strategies.     

The network of networks: Localized technological change in telecommunications and productivity growth

Radical innovations in the usage of telecommunication services have drastically changed the role of telecommunications in the economy. Today the usage of telecommunications services is associated with the opportunity to extract significant quasi-rents. An empirical analysis of the Italian case in the mid-eighties confirms the significant difference between telecommunications cost share and marginal productivity levels. The opportunity to reap transient quasi-rents has in turn pushed users to innovate so as to become major players in the arena of technological change in telecommunications and information technologies. In this context the notion of network of networks, implemented in the European Union, seems most appropriate to push the dynamic efficiency of the system and accommodate both centrifugal and centripetal innovations, yet also to retain network interoperability and interconnectivity.     

Measuring intensity of technological change: The seismic approach

The abundance of typologies, within the economics of innovation, has resulted in the same name being used for different innovation types and the same innovation being classified under different typologies. The present research introduces the Scale of Innovation Intensity (SIIN) based on metataxonomy that subsumes other, less comprehensive taxonomies. The SIIN is similar to the seismic Mercalli's scale used to measure the intensity of earthquakes. The impact of technological change is measured by an indicator, called magnitude, based on the impact of technological innovations on the economic system. The theory is applied to some product and process innovations such as agricultural mechanization, aircraft technology, muffler catalytic, aluminum processing, etc. The results show that some innovations have a higher technological intensity and energy (economic impact) on well-being than others. Some concluding remarks are discussed in the final part of this research.     

技术管理能力对突破性技术创新行为的影响：环境动荡性与竞争敌对性的联合调节效应

利用突破性技术创新实现“弯道超车,后发制人”是我国经济高质量发展的必由之路。突破性技术创新的成功离不开创新行为的实施,如何促进突破性技术创新行为成为理论和实践上亟待解决的问题。探索技术管理能力对突破性技术创新行为的影响,分析环境动荡性对技术管理能力与突破性技术创新行为间关系的调节作用,以及竞争敌对性对环境动荡性调节作用的调节效应。研究表明,技术管理能力对突破性技术创新行为具有显著正向影响,环境动荡性在技术管理能力与突破性技术创新行为的关系中起正向调节作用;竞争敌对性能够强化环境动荡性的正向调节作用。     

Globalization of technology: Network analysis of global patents and trademarks

This study explored how the structure of globalization of technology via intellectual property networks has changed longitudinally, and compares the structures of global trademarks and patents. It suggests that network analysis provides useful tools for describing recent trends in the globalization of technology. Network analyses describe which countries have higher technological capabilities, and also how countries are mutually connected for technological collaboration or transfer. In addition, network analysis confirmed that both the trademark and patent networks have become decentralized over time.     

Technological generalizations and leitbilder—the anticipation of technological opportunities

Recent national technology foresight studies as well as the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University are very much based on “nodes of discussion.” These short statements are called, e.g., topics, issues, or developments. This article provides a framework for the classification and analysis of nodes related to future technological development. Key concepts of the article are “technological generalization” and “leitbild.” The topics in the technology foresight Delphi studies can be seen as different kinds of generalizations from already realized technological developments. Leitbild is a German word. Its most general meaning is a guiding image. Like a common vision, a leitbild creates a shared overall goal, offers orientation toward one long-term overall goal, and provides a basis for different professions and disciplines to work in the same direction. The analysis of leitbilder and emerging technological paradigms might contribute to the construction of topics and issues and to the argumentation processes related to them.     

Evaluating technology disruptiveness in a strategic corporate context: A case study

This study examines how firms interpret new, potentially disruptive technologies in their own strategic context. The study uses a propositional framework for evaluating the amount of radical change in the companies' business models with two middle variables, the disruptiveness potential of a new technology, and the strategic importance of a new technology to a firm. The framework is used in a cross-case analysis of four potentially disruptive technologies or technical operating models: Bluetooth, WLAN, Grid computing and Mobile Peer-to-peer paradigm. The technologies were investigated from the perspective of three mobile operators, a device manufacturer and a software company in the ICT industry.The data was gathered in group-discussion sessions in each company. The results of each case analysis were brought together to evaluate, how firms interpret the potential disruptiveness in terms of changes in product characteristics and added value, technology and market uncertainty, changes in product-market positions, possible competence disruption and changes in value network positions. The results indicate that the perceived disruptiveness in terms of product characteristics does not necessarily translate into strategic importance. In addition, firms did not see the new technologies as a threat in terms of potential competence disruption.     

Managing technological and social uncertainties of innovation: The evolution of Brazilian energy and agriculture

This paper explores how technological, commercial and social uncertainties shaped the development of Brazilian biofuels. Technological innovation allowed the country to emerge as a global leader, but Brazil continues to struggle with major social uncertainties due to poverty and environmental concerns common in many emerging economies. Contemporary approaches to development within the innovation literature focus primarily on overcoming technological and commercial uncertainties, but only peripherally explore social uncertainties. To fill this void, we draw on Martin and Hall's framework for managing innovative uncertainties, which is based on Kuhn and Popper's approaches to the evolution and methodology of science, and extend it with Aldrich and Fiol's concept of cognitive versus socio-political legitimacy. Based on qualitative data collected in Brazil, we outline the evolution of automotive fuel ethanol and flex-fuel technology, the development of Brazilian soybean production, and castor for socially inclusive biodiesel production. We show how innovation solved some technological and commercial uncertainties and generated new opportunities, but also created additional social uncertainties that are now being addressed. Through this process, Brazil has acquired capabilities in alternative energy technologies and more sustainable agriculture, becoming an exemplar for other emerging economies. We conclude with implications for policy and industry.     

Diversity of technology acquisition in technological catch-up: an industry-level analysis of Chinese manufacturing

Using panel data analysis for an industry-level sample of Chinese manufacturing industries from 2000 to 2009, the study examines how latecomers dynamically adapt technology acquisition strategy in terms of technology acquisition diversity during the transition process from imitation to innovation. Our research considers technology acquisition as a portfolio of technology channels and thus examines the impact of technology gap between domestic firms and foreign firms on technology acquisition strategy at the industry level. The findings reveal that technology gap positively affects technology acquisition diversity of Chinese manufacturing industries. Further, it shows that technological uncertainty weakens the positive impact of technology gap on diversity of technology acquisition.     

Higher selection processes in evolutionary economic change

Virtually all models of economic change are based on a Darwinian picture of a world where change is gradual, smooth, and where economic survival depends on being more efficient. This paper, drawing from current controversies in evolutionary biology, presents a broader interpretation of evolutionary change in which competitive selection is only one possible reason for economic survival. Economic change is presented as a hierarchical process. At one level, change takes place through the accumulation of small changes based on competitive selection at the margin, as described by standard economic theory. At higher levels, survival depends on processes over which the agent being selected has no control.This paper was written while the author was a visiting researcher at the Institute for Economic Research (IFO) in Munich. Support from the German Academic Exchange Service is gratefully acknowledged. Helpful discussions and comments were contributed by Paul Hohenberg, Joel Mokyr, Lothar Scholz, and James Stodder.     

Technology evaluation in Taiwan's technology industries: Strategies, trajectories, and innovations

Technology evaluation, as an organizational process, is the essential ability to comprehend the values of technologies very soon after they emerge. Meanwhile, the technology evaluation process is inevitably influenced by the firm's industrial context, such as its technological trajectory. This study defines technology evaluation strategy in terms of the processes, methods, and participants involved, and uses this definition as a taxonomy to explore different types of technology evaluation strategies. A survey on the technological industries is conducted to explore types of technology evaluation strategies and their relationships with the advantages of different types of innovation under the effects of different technological trajectories. The survey identifies four types of technology evaluation strategies, namely, those of the flexible executive strategist, the emergent executive intuitionist, the deliberate quantitative strategist, and the deliberate consensual strategist, are identified. This study has found that certain types of technology evaluation strategies have better innovation performances than the others. The patterns of technological trajectories are also found to influence a firm's technology evaluation strategy and the advantages of certain types of innovations. The established explanations of the relationships among the technological trajectory, innovation type, and technology evaluation strategies may guide technology businesses to develop a better technology evaluation capability. The theoretical framework developed in this research enriches the strategic management literature with a new taxonomy for technology evaluation strategies.     

Functions of innovation systems as a framework to understand sustainable technological change: Empirical evidence for earlier claims

Understanding the emergence of innovation systems is recently put central in research analysing the process of technological change. Especially the key activities that are important for the build up of an innovation system receive much attention. These are labelled ‘functions of innovation systems’. This paper builds on five empirical studies, related to renewable energy technologies, to test whether the functions of innovation systems framework is a valid framework to analyse processes of technological change. We test the claim that a specific set of functions is suitable. We also test the claim made in previous publications that the interactions between system functions accelerate innovation system emergence and growth. Both claims are confirmed.