The curse of natural resources in the transition economies*

The curse of natural resources is a well‐documented phenomenon for developing countries. Economies that are richly endowed with natural resources tend to grow slowly. Among the transition economies of the former ‘Eastern Bloc’, a similar pattern can be observed. This paper shows that a large part of the variation in growth rates among the transition economies can be attributed to the curse of natural resources. After controlling for numerous other factors, there is still a strong negative correlation between natural resource abundance and economic growth. Among the transition economies the prime reasons for the curse of natural resources were corruption and a neglect of basic education. In order to overcome the curse of natural resources and move to a sustainable path of development, the resource abundant transition countries should fight corruption and ensure that their resource revenues are invested in human capital or the preservation of natural capital.     

The future of the global economy

Although world growth is continuous throughout history, the balance of power is constantly shifting from one nation to another. From Egypt to Ancient Greece and Rome, all the way through modern western civilization, different nations struggle for power through various ways such as: war, science and technology, arts, commerce, economical transactions, and other forms of interaction.In this article we use the assumption that global activity, as measured by real GDP, follows the well known s-curve of natural growth. Furthermore in order to model the relative power of specific regions, namely Western Countries, China and the rest of the world, we use the Logistic Substitution method developed by Nakicenovic and Marchetti. Estimates from the derived models are tested against actual data and linked to real historical events where appropriate.The bottom line of these forecasts is that World GDP will continue to rise in the next years, and will probably reach its peak growth by the end of the next decade. China's emergence as a superpower is verified and could have been predicted even as way back as 1985 by using the Logistic Substitution method. If the current trend persists it is expected to more than double its percentage contribution to the World's gross domestic product during the next two decades and exceed Western Countries' aggregated GDP by 2034 at a level of almost 40%. By the year 2024 though China's economy is expected to enter the substitution phase, as our world will most likely experience the emergence of a new “superpower” that will take its place, and once more will change the international landscape as we know it today.     

IS model: A general model of forecasting and its applications in science and the economy

Expanding the work of Marchetti and Modis on Lotka-Volterra competition systems, a general model of Interaction Systems (IS) is introduced to describe the dynamics of multiple member interactions among different populations concerning not only biological systems but other types of systems as well. The new IS model provides us with a general framework of analysis and forecasting, where all parameters, variables, and interactions have real meaning, by using basic knowledge of each system.The proposed model can be applied to many different fields covering economic, business, social, physical, and other phenomena giving us both numerical estimates and qualitative insights of the system's dynamics. This is illustrated in two case studies. In the first case, the IS model is applied to elementary chemical reactions in order to quantify the reactions' kinetics. The result is the well known rate law of chemical reactions kinetics thus providing evidence of the proposed model's validity. In the second case, the IS model is applied to the global economy. The resulting model is tested against real global GDP data. The new IS model gave reliable estimates and proved to be considerably more accurate as compared to a similar forecast of global GDP based on the logistic growth model. Furthermore, the new model presented a basic framework of understanding the nature of major economic shifts, including the recent global recession of 2009, by studying the dynamic relationship between demand and supply.     

The inflationary bias of real uncertainty and the harmonic Fisher equation

Summary. We argue that real uncertainty itself causes long-run nominal inflation. Consider an infinite horizon cash-in-advance economy with a representative agent and real uncertainty, modeled by independent, identically distributed endowments. Suppose the central bank fixes the nominal rate of interest. We show that the equilibrium long-run rate of inflation is strictly higher, on almost every path of endowment realizations, than it would be if the endowments were constant.Indeed, we present an explicit formula for the long-run rate of inflation, based on the famous Fisher equation. The Fisher equation says the short-run rate of inflation should equal the nominal rate of interest less the real rate of interest. The long-run Fisher equation for our stochastic economy is similar, but with the rate of inflation replaced by the harmonic mean of the growth rate of money.Received: 25 February 2005, Revised: 26 May 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: C7, C73, D81, E41, E58.An earlier version of this paper “Inflationary Bias in a Simple Stochastic Economy,” as a 2001 Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1333.     

The future of the mobile phone business

One of the fastest growing technologies of our times is that of mobile phones. In this article we use the assumption that the diffusion of mobile technology, as measured by the number of active mobile accounts, follows the well known S-curve of natural growth in competition systems. The accuracy of the logistic fit is tested against actual data for the whole world, Europe, China and the GSM system. Using the produced models predictions concerning the future of mobile business are deliberated.According to these models active mobile accounts around the globe are expected to grow from 1.7 billion in 2004 to approximately 2 billion in 2008, reaching a peak penetration of 29.2%. Growth barriers, apart from the age of the potential user, are also low income and extreme poverty. Europe, early adopter of mobile technology and leader in active mobile accounts against all other regions in the world, has apparently reached a peak with almost every European, apart from the very young or very old, using a mobile phone. The mobile market in China is anticipated to exceed 500 million active accounts and may increase even further depending on the economic and social reform that is currently under way in that part of the world. GSM will most likely remain the leading mobile technology in the future as it is today.The growth process for the world, Europe, and the GSM system is almost completed and during this stage instabilities may occur before the potential emergence of a new wave of growth.     

The interactions between natural and physical capitals in the tourist lifecycle model

This paper presents a model of the interactions between natural resources and physical capital in the evolution of a tourist destination. The projected trajectory of the number of tourists approaches the classical lifecycle pattern. The post-stagnation phase is analyzed within the model, obtaining different patterns which depend on the impacts of physical capital on both demand and environmental degradation. The magnitudes of these impacts are determined by the type of tourism. An empirical application to the case of the tourist industry in the Canary Islands (Spain) is presented, showing that the model can represent the general characteristics of the post-stagnation phase of a tourist destination.     

自然资源、经济增长与创新三者的关系分析

自然资源是经济增长的过程中的一个要素,理论上这个要素能够扩大生产可能性边界,但是,现实生活中自然资源常常阻碍了经济增长的提高,而缺少自然资源的地区反而可能有更快的增长速度.本文考察了自然资源禀赋、经济增长与创新之间的关系,作为"资源诅咒"的传导机制的重要部分,并发展了一个基于内生经济增长理论,变化的拉姆齐-卡斯-库普曼斯模型来解释"资源诅咒"现象.资源收入通过直接减少工作动力和间接导致较小的从事创新的劳动力比例两种方式阻碍经济增长.     

Inflation,growth, and distribution: The Brazilian economy after the post war

Abstract

Following Marglin and Bhaduri (1990 Marglin, S.A., and Bhaduri, A. “Profit Squeeze and Keynesian Theory.” In S.A. Marglin and J. Schor (eds.), The Golden Age of Capitalism. Reinterpreting the Postwar Experience. Oxford: Clarendon, 1990. [Google Scholar]), the purpose of this paper is to investigate empirically the interaction between income distribution and growth of aggregate demand during the 1951–89 period in Brazil. Applying Hein and Vogel’s (2008) methodology we conclude that the Brazilian economy showed a profit-led demand regime. In a context of high inflation, high concentration of markets, and wage control, retained profits were the main source to finance new capital. In this sense, we found a large sensitivity of investment relative to the wage share, a result that is compatible with a consumption pattern based on high income, which supported the growth trend with low wages observed during the period.     

中外双边自然人流动影响因素和自然人流动壁垒测度——基于引力模型的研究

自然人流动是服务贸易的第四种模式,而各国间的自然人流动始终受到重重壁垒的限制;但是对自然人流动壁垒的测度是一个难点问题.本文通过改进的引力模型,构建了一个双边自然人流量模型,并从自然人流量与代理变量相关性的角度,估计和推测出自然人流动成本,以测度中国与服务贸易伙伴国家(地区)的自然人流动壁垒变动情况,弥补目前频度测量法主观性强的不足.文章发现中国入世以后,自然人流动壁垒在不同类型国家间呈现不同的减让特点,充分体现了中国方面开放水平的显著提升和参与全球经济一体化的程度,也说明了中国面临发达国家方面因持续关注国内公民福利而制定的日益严苛的自然人流动壁垒,并根据研究结果给出了发展和改善建议.     

替代、互补及互嵌:企业与市场关系的新考察

在现实世界中,企业市场关系呈现出替代、互补及互嵌等多种特征,使得单一的“替代”说或“互补”论均缺乏足够的解释力。本文从交易费用角度将交易关系分为三种类型并指出企业和市场谁更有利于交易费用的节约,主要取决于交易品的特征以及交易本身的具体职能。企业其实是一种通过非人力资本和人力资本、人力资本和人力资本间相互交易以实现生产功能的特殊履约机制。这样就不难理解,只有部分交易可以通过企业与市场间的相互替代来提高效率,而更多的交易则须通过改善企业内部管理或改进市场制度本身来提高其效率。     

Assessing market penetration combining scenario analysis, Delphi, and the technological substitution model: The case of the OLED TV market

The technological substitution model, proposed in 1971, was designed to analyze the penetration process of new-generation technologies replacing old ones. It was expanded in 1979 to consider more than two generations and the substitution process among various entities in the market. However, this expanded model is often limited by a relative lack of data on the latest-generation technology.On the other hand, scenario analysis, as another breed to forecasting tool, provides rich and complex portraits of possible future development of technologies. However, it fails to provide quantifiable forecasts. Therefore, previous researchers combined these two methods to analyze the development of new technologies.Nevertheless, to make forecasting more holistic, the current opinions of seasoned experts should also be taken into account. However, because of the often-diverged expert opinions, a method for consensus building, such as the Delphi method, is also necessary. Therefore, we combined the scenario analysis with the Delphi method and the technological substitution model to analyze the development of a new technology, namely, the latest-generation television (TV), or the organic light-emitting diode (OLED) TV. We elaborate three possible scenarios, and forecast the market share of OLED TV and four other TV technologies in the global market over the next 10 years: cathode ray tube, rear projection, plasma display panel, and liquid crystal display.     

Natural gas,trade and sustainable growth: empirical evidence from the top gas consumers of the developing world

Natural gas is the key non-renewable source of energy for a low-carbon economy. The research applies heterogeneous panel techniques to investigate the impact of natural gas consumption on economic growth across a panel of top 15 natural gas consumers of the developing world. We establish long-run dynamics with cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity across the sample countries. The long-run output elasticities suggest that the natural gas consumption and trade variables have significant positive effect on the output in a panel of developing economies. Further, we establish feedback relationship among gas consumption, output and trade in the short-run. Given the significance of natural gas as the low-emission source of energy, we suggest governments and policy advisers of these major natural gas consumers to focus on developing pipeline infrastructure for adequate supply, reforming natural gas sector with a competitive price structure to combat excess demand in individual natural gas market. With trade integration, majority of these countries need to incorporate these initiatives to improve the technologies such as combined cycle power plant technology and value-added chemical production technology to achieve sustainable economic growth.     

The Eisner Puzzle,the Unemployment Threshold and the Range of Equilibria

Using a two-regime model of the inflation-unemployment process for US data 1960:2 to 2000:2, this paper finds strong evidence to support the Eisner puzzle, which occurs when the short-run Phillips curve (SRPC) is flatter at low rates of unemployment than at higher rates. The puzzling aspect of this pattern is the expectation of excess demand to become apparent at very low rates of unemployment causing the SRPC to be steep rather than fairly flat. We show the puzzle can be resolved by estimating a three-regime model which reveals a steep SRPC at very low rates of unemployment. The estimates of the three regime model also reveal a horizontal SRPC at intermediate rates of unemployment, implying the existence of a range of equilibrium rates of unemployment at those intermediate rates.

The causal relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth: evidence from the G7 countries

This article re-examines the nature of the causality between natural gas consumption and economic growth in G7 countries over the period from 1965 to 2011. We employ the Granger causality procedure proposed by Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) which takes into account cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity across countries. Our overall empirical results support the neutrality hypothesis for the panel while the individual country results confirm the same result with the exception of the case of UK, where the conservation hypothesis is confirmed, showing that GDP causes natural gas consumption in the country. These results make policies that promote the consumption of natural gas risk-free with regard to their effects to the economic growth and development levels.     

经济增长:资源、环境和极限问题的理论争论与人类面临的选择

在人类社会不同的发展阶段中，人与自然的关系是不尽相同的。工业化早期阶段所带来的种种破坏性后果，引发了人们时生态与环境问题的严重关切。1972年《增长的极限》一书所引起的世界性的争论，使人们认识到生态的承载力是有限的，资源的数量也是有限的。从长远来看，科技进步能不断发现新的能源与资源，但在每一个特定的人类社会阶段，能源与资源危机总是人类必须面对的严峻挑战。改变旧的经济增长模式．探索新的经济增长模式，是可持续发展的核心内容。     

美国对中国反倾销的变化趋势、原因及对策分析

自20世纪90年代以来,中国的资本密集型出口产品逐步替代劳动密集型出口产品成为美国的主要反倾销对象。美国对中国反倾销出现的这一变化趋势,一方面是由于中国劳动力价格上升,劳动密集型产品对美出口比例降低,另一方面是由于中国的资本密集型产品对美出口迅速增加对美国相关产业形成竞争压力。为了有效的应对美国的反倾销,无论是相关出口企业,还是国家政府部门都应给予足够重视,应坚持统一对外的方针,抵制低价出口行为;实施市场多元化战略;设立专门应对反倾销的机构,共同做好反倾销的预防工作和应对措施。     

The Internal Organization of the Firm, Transaction Costs, and Macroeconomic Growth

This articleanalyzes the links between the internal organization of the firmand macroeconomic growth. We present a Schumpeterian growth modelin which firms face agency costs due to the existence of asymmetriesof information and the formation of vertical collusions insidethose firms. To respond to the threat of collusion, optimal collusion-proofincentive contracts depend on the efficiency of collusive sidecontracting within organizations. Collusion affects thereforethe firms' profitability, the incentives to innovate, and, finally,the stationary equilibrium growth rate of the economy. On theother hand, when the growth rate is small, the prospects of long-termrelationships within firms increase the agents' incentives toinvest in a better collusive technology. We then discuss thetwo-way relationships between the structure of internal transactioncosts, organizational technologies, and macroeconomic growth.     

The French Communication Industry Defined and Analyzed through the Social Fabric Matrix,the Filiere Approach,and Network Analysis

This paper examines the relative impact of economic freedom, civil liberties, and political rights on growth. A system of three simultaneous equations is used to unearth the channels through which these institutional dimensions affect economic growth. These include greater efficiency and enlarged investment in physical and human capital. The sample contains 79 countries and six periods covering the years from 1976 to 2005. The results show that the three dimensions of institutional quality are important for economic growth either through a better allocation of resources or, indirectly, through the stimulation of investment in physical and human capital.     

On the predictability of knowledge formation: The tortuous link between regional specialization trade, and development

This paper examines the relation between industrial mix, trade, and regional productivity growth. For this purpose, a dynamic model of the open economy with diversified sectoral knowledge formation and incomplete interregional knowledge diffusion is constructed. The theoretical framework is first used to show the consequences of increasing globalization on regional growth. It is then applied to German regional data in order to investigate whether there is evidence of generally specified patterns of knowledge formation. It emerges that some causal relationships are robust for the case of German regions but cannot be exploited by economic policy in general.