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1.
Paul A. Steenhof Author Vitae Whitman Fulton Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2007,74(5):663-681
China has attracted worldwide attention due to the global economic and environmental effects of its rapid economic growth over the last 20 years, with particular attention given to the country's accelerating energy consumption and resulting greenhouse gas emissions. China's electricity sector is particularly important for both of these issues as it accounts for nearly half of its greenhouse gas emissions and even greater proportions of the country's demands for primary fuel resources. In order to better understand how these issues may progress in an economy changing as fast as China's, this paper develops a framework that can be used to help model the electricity sector's future development. The framework builds upon key technological and socio-economic drivers, including those affecting electricity demand (e.g., economic growth, structure, energy efficiency, urbanization, and change in per capita income) and electricity supply (e.g., deregulation, initiatives to promote natural gas, nuclear and renewable energy, air pollution regulations, price developments for coal and natural gas, and changes in generation technology). The framework serves as a foundation for a scenario exercise on the greenhouse gas and fuel consumption impacts of different developmental paths for China's electricity sector. These scenarios and their implications for emissions and fuel consumption are presented in a subsequent article. 相似文献
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This paper investigates how concern for the environment translates into predictable patterns of consumer behavior. Two types
of behavior are considered. First, individuals who care about environmental quality may voluntarily restrain their consumption
of goods and services that generate a negative externality. Second, individuals may choose to pay a price premium for goods
and services that are more environmentally benign. A theoretical model identifies a symmetry between such voluntary restraint
and a voluntary price premium that mirrors the symmetry between environmental policies based on either quantities (quotas)
or prices (taxes). We test predictions of the model in an empirical study of household electricity consumption with introduction
of a price-premium, green-electricity program. We find evidence of voluntary restraint and its relation to a voluntary price
premium. The empirical results are consistent with the theoretical model of voluntary conservation.
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This paper analyses the demand for energy sector by employing a model form strategic asset allocation literature and quantifying the welfare losses incurred by an investor due to sub-optimal asset allocation. Our sample group includes fifteen major oil producing and consuming countries. We analyze the short-run and long-run desirability of energy sector in the optimal portfolio of an investor with varying level of risk aversion; that is, risk averse and risk tolerant investors. Our results show that the portfolio demand for energy sector is myopic or short-run. For long-run investors, investing in a portfolio of equity market and government bonds is a better proposition. In addition, energy sector is more desirable for risk tolerant investors. 相似文献
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Exploring sustainability transitions in the electricity sector with socio-technical pathways 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
G.P.J. Verbong Author Vitae F.W. Geels Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2010,77(8):1214-1221
This paper analyses sustainability transitions in the electricity system, using recent theories on socio-technical pathways. The paper describes three possible transition pathways and indicates the implications for (grid) infrastructures. The ‘transformation pathway’ is characterised by a further hybridization of the infrastructure; in the ‘reconfiguration pathway’, internationalisation and scale increase in renewable generation lead to the emergence of a ‘Supergrid’. The ‘de-alignment and re-alignment pathway’ is dominated by distributed generation and a focus on more local infrastructures. We suggest that this pathway, which involves a major restructuring of the electricity system, is less likely than the other two. The de-alignment and re-alignment pathway is therefore more dependent on external developments and/or strong policy interventions. All pathways, however, require major investments in infrastructure and innovative technologies. 相似文献
5.
Muhammad Amer Author Vitae Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2010,77(8):1355-1370
Technology Roadmapping (TRM) is a growing technique widely used for strategy planning and aligning technology with overall business objectives. Technology roadmaps are extensively used in many diverse fields at product, technology, industry, company and national levels. An increasing number of articles published on TRM and technology roadmaps indicate that there is a growing attention for TRM among the researchers from academia, industry and government. In this article, an overview of the application of TRM in renewable energy sector has been provided. After survey of the relevant academic literature and industry roadmaps, we tried to group the roadmaps related to the renewable energy technologies into national, industry/sector and organizational level roadmaps. Research findings indicate that goals and objectives of renewable energy roadmaps are different at these three levels. At national level, roadmaps focus on future energy security, energy dependence, energy policy formulation and environment protection. At industry/sector level, roadmaps are used to identify vision, common needs and evaluate barriers, constraints and risks faced by the industry from technical, political and commercial aspects. Organizational roadmap focuses on evaluation and prioritization of R&D projects to achieve the business goals. Similarly different methods, tools and approaches are used to develop roadmaps at different levels. Various other characteristics of these roadmaps are also discussed and analyzed. Research findings also indicate that greater numbers of roadmaps are developed for those renewable energy technologies undergoing rapid growth. Moreover, most of these roadmaps are developed in the regions where more research, development and deployment activities of renewable energy technologies is taking place. 相似文献
6.
Efficiency and Equity in Natural Resources Pricing: A Proposal for Urban Water Distribution Service 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
This paper focuses on the design of optimal prices for urban water distribution service. In this context, pricing should be aimed at achieving efficiency, equity, financial aspects, and/or public acceptability and transparency. The proposed tariffs are based on the theoretical frameworks suggested by Ramsey (1927) and Feldstein (1972). As a prior step, estimations of urban water demands and water costs are carried out for the Spanish municipality of Seville. Finally, an empirical comparison, in welfare terms, is conducted between the proposed tariffs and those applicable in the year 2000. 相似文献
7.
资金供求对社会经济运行的整体格局及其效果有着十分重要的影响。就资金供求与货币供求的关系而言,资金供求均衡是货币供求均衡赖以形成的基础。资金运行除了具有货币运行的效应外,还通过生产过程对价值增殖发挥着不可替代的作用。资金供求均衡是货币供求均衡的核心。资金供求和商品供求密切相关,任何一方的失衡都将使另一方的均衡变得十分困难,但资金供求均衡是商品供求均衡的先决条件。实现资金供求的均衡,是实现社会总供给与总需求均衡的重要保证。 相似文献
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The combination of a high growth rate and low information has been observed since the late 1990s in the Chinese economy. Should the fact be considered as a result of greatly improved supply capability or should the fact reflect the improvement in the government’s aggregate demand management? In this paper, we try to assess the role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in China’s macroeconomic fluctuation. We use a bivariate structural VAR model to investigate macroeconomic dynamics for China within the aggregate-demand and aggregate-supply framework, using the quarterly data in the period of 1996Q1–2005Q4. Our principal findings are following: (1) China’s high growth shall be associated more with greatly improved supply capability, especially after its WTO entrance. The expansionary aggregate demand policies may have limited effects to raise the growth rate in the post-1996 in China. This result suggests that we need a more pro-growth policy stance in order to maintain a high and stable growth. (2) The low inflation in that period is driven primarily by weak aggregate demand rather than supply factors. 相似文献
11.
INGRID NIELSEN CAI FANG 《Economic Papers: A journal of applied economics and policy》2007,26(3):231-236
As a result of China's family planning policy of ‘raising population quality and controlling population size’ initiated in the late 1970s, China has accomplished a population transition from high birth rate, low mortality rate and high population growth to low birth rate, low mortality rate and low population growth within a remarkably short timeframe. Along with this population transition, however, comes a shift in population age structure, with a rapid increase in the proportion of elderly people. This paper explores the implications of China's demographic shift for labour supply and suggests policy changes to target an emerging labour shortage. 相似文献
12.
Min Wei 《中国经济评论(英文版)》2005,4(9):76-78
As the tourism is improving, the economy growth can be obtained. Therefore, to improve tourism is to improve the economy. In fact, some supplies of tour could not meet the demands, which brings out conflict. It is obvious that solving the problem of supply and demand of tour is the approach to the development strategy of tourism economic growth. 相似文献
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Electricity sector reform in developing countries: an econometric assessment of the effects of privatization,competition and regulation 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Electricity sectors in both developed and developing countries have been subject to restructuring to introduce private capital
and increase competition. Although the effects of such reforms in a number of the developed economies are now well documented,
the experience of developing countries is much less well researched. This paper provides an econometric assessment of the
effects of privatization, competition and regulation on the performance of the electricity generation industry using panel
data for 36 developing and transitional countries, over the period 1985–2003. The study identifies the impact of these reforms
on generating capacity, electricity generated, labor productivity in the generating sector and capacity utilization. The main
conclusions are that on their own privatization and regulation (PR) do not lead to obvious gains in economic performance,
though there are some positive interaction effects. By contrast, introducing competition does seem to be effective in stimulating
performance improvements.
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16.
John Tschirhart 《Journal of Bioeconomics》2003,5(2-3):193-214
Synopsis: The oft-cited analogies between ecological and economic systems are exploited to develop a many-species model of
population dynamics. In economies, markets are the fundamental institutions in which the interaction of demands and supplies
determine the quantities and prices of goods. However, economic markets are not appropriate for ecological communities, because
markets rely on voluntary exchange, whereas plants and animals engage in involuntary transfers of biomass. A properly defined
counterpart to markets based on biomass transfers permits a general equilibrium model of predator/prey and competitive interactions
in a many-species community. Functional response from optimal foraging and predation risk provide the demand and supply, respectively,
in the biomass transfers. Energy per unit time is scarce and predators and prey make optimum choices with respect to functional
response and risk avoidance based on required energy expenditures. The energy expenditures are similar to economic prices:
they determine foraging strategies and are beyond the control of the predators and prey, yet they are determined by the aggregate
choices of all predators and prey and by population densities. The energies acquired from foraging are used in a new way to
construct difference equations that determine the population dynamics.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
17.
The mainland of China’s rapid pace of industrialization and trade expansion have led many to ask whether its ever-increasing demand for resources can be met without disruption to economic stability and growth in the country and the world as a whole. The article examines the experience of growth in resource demand and the associated pressure on global markets from Japan, Taiwan Province of China and Korea during their periods of sustained, rapid economic growth for periods in the second half of the twentieth century. It seeks to draw lessons for the twenty-first century. The article points out that because of its size the mainland of China may cause the resources boom, associated with the later decades of its period of sustained rapid growth, to raise the prices of resource-intensive products by a large amount, not for a few years, but for several decades. This will have important implications for economic development and the distribution of incomes within and between all countries, and on power relations between states in the Asia-Pacific and throughout the global community. 相似文献
18.
The rebound effect results in part from an increased consumption of energy services following an improvement in the technical efficiency of delivering those services. This increased consumption offsets the energy savings that may otherwise be achieved. If the rebound effect is sufficiently large it may undermine the rationale for policy measures to encourage energy efficiency.The nature and magnitude of the rebound effect is the focus of long-running dispute with energy economics. This paper brings together previous theoretical work to provide a rigorous definition of the rebound effect, to clarify key conceptual issues and to highlight the potential consequences of various assumptions for empirical estimates of the effect. The focus is on the direct rebound effect for a single energy service — indirect and economy-wide rebound effects are not discussed.Beginning with Khazzoom's original definition of the rebound effect, we expose the limitations of three simplifying assumptions on which this definition is based. First, we argue that capital costs form an important part of the total cost of providing energy services and that empirical studies that estimate rebound effects from variations in energy prices are prone to bias. Second, we argue that energy efficiency should be treated as an endogenous variable and that empirical estimates of the rebound effect may need to apply a simultaneous equation model to capture the joint determination of key variables. Third, we explore the implications of the opportunity costs of time in the production of energy services and highlight the consequences for energy use of improved ‘time efficiency’, the influence of time costs on the rebound effect and the existence of a parallel rebound effect with respect to time. Each of these considerations serves to highlight the difficulties in obtaining reliable estimates of the rebound effect and the different factors that need to be controlled for. We discuss the implications of these findings for econometric studies and argue that several existing studies may overestimate the magnitude of the effect. 相似文献
19.
新古典经济学的基础性分析工具是供需曲线,而这一模型是对现实经济运行的“过度”简化,缺失的重要环节就是交易费用或制度安排。基于新制度经济学对交易费用、制度安排的相关研究,在传统供需曲线模型所包含的资源配置与收入分配两项内容基础上,本文加入了交易费用曲线并对其做了结构化分析,构建了制度化了的供需模型,探索了当前认识条件下经济学供需模型的“统一场论”。进而,本文运用这一模型提出了资产增值的“不可能三角”,需求曲线的两个镜像关系,以需求弹性推导组织要素“侵蚀”能力及合约选择定律,交易费用限定资产交易边界、暗含市场规模的界定等创新性结论,体现出这一理论模型能够深刻诠释现实经济运行的能力,希望以此为我国经济改革发展中存在的一些矛盾与争论提供统一的分析框架。 相似文献