Resource scarcity,effort allocation and environmental security: An agent-based theoretical approach

It is widely feared that environmental degradation induced by climate change may lead to economic and political insecurity through channels such as resource scarcity and mass migration. In this paper, we have developed an agent-based model to study whether resource scarcity is likely to lead to an increase in the appropriation of resources in environments where adaptive agents can allocate a fraction of their effort to predatory behavior. By enriching a production and conflict model through the introduction of separate product and resource appropriations, we show how boundedly-rational agents capable of learning can update their adaptive expectations and optimize their allocation decisions using a genetic framework. Arising from a few simple rules, the results show a high level of complexity in agents' allocation behavior with outputs ranging from no statistically significant allocation changes to widespread conflict in the environment, depending on the initial conditions and the nature of the scenarios. Overall the results support previous empirical findings that the main link between resource scarcity and conflict is through changes in the distribution of resources rather than their overall availability.     

Growing Silicon Valley on a landscape: an agent-based approach to high-tech industrial clusters

We propose a Nelson-Winter model with an explicitly defined landscape to study the formation of high-tech industrial clusters such as those in Silicon Valley. The existing literature treats clusters as the result of location choices and focuses on how firms may benefit from locating in a cluster. We deviate from this tradition by emphasizing that high-tech industrial clusters are characterized by concentrated entrepreneurship. We argue that the emergence of clusters can be explained by the social effect through which the appearance of one or a few entrepreneurs inspire many followers locally. Agent-based simulation is employed to show the dynamics of the model. Data from the simulation and the properties of the model are discussed in light of empirical regularities. Variations of the model are simulated to study policies that are favorable to the high-tech economy.JEL Classification: L11, R12This paper has been presented at the 9th International Schumpeter Society Conference in Gainesville, Florida, the Western Economic Associations 77th Annual Conference in Seattle, Washington, the 24th Annual Research Conference of the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management in Dallas, Texas, and the Workshop on Industry and Labor Dynamics: The Agent-Based Computational Economics Approach in Turin, Italy. I would like to thank Rob Axtell, Giovanni Dosi, Olav Sorenson, and an anonymous referee for their comments, suggestions, and encouragement. I am grateful to Nikesh Patel for his superb assistance.     

Referral hiring, endogenous social networks, and inequality: an agent-based analysis

The importance of referral hiring, which is workers finding employment via social contacts, is nowadays an empirically well documented fact. It also has been shown that social networks for finding jobs can create stratification. These analyses are, by and large, based on exogenous network structures. We go beyond the existing work by building an agent-based model of the labor market in which the social network of potential referees is endogenous. Workers invest some of their endowments into building up and fostering their social networks as an insurance device against future job losses. We look into the manner in which social networks and inequality respond to increased uncertainty in the labor market. We find that larger variability in firms’ labor demand reduces workers’ efforts put into social networks, leading to lower inequality.     

Proximity, knowledge integration and innovation: an agenda for agent-based studies

In this paper, we develop a theoretical model able to capture some of the main features that govern knowledge sharing and innovation. We pursue our target developing an agent-based model in which the social network of interactions is specified as a knowledge resource, and knowledge integration is seen as the process by which the resource can be applied to innovation. The results of the simulation exercises show that the initial architecture of acquaintance networks is a crucial factor for innovation. Innovating has proven to be more than simply equating endowments of initial skills with firm performance. In fact, the performance of the system showed high sensitivity to the arrangement of the firm’s initial location in the social network. Moreover, the way in which acquaintance networks were mobilized emerged as a key determinant of innovation patterns. The model presented here is a relatively theoretical, stylized model and we employ it to draw some general, albeit preliminary conclusions, while illustrating some of the theory relevant to the issues discussed. It is argued that the model might serve the purpose of setting an agenda for further research along this line of investigation—that is, knowledge integration patterns and firms partnerships formation.     

Entrepreneurship,search costs,and ecological rationality in an agent-based economy

Since Coase’s paper on the firm, transaction costs have occupied much attention as a field of economic inquiry. Yet, with few exceptions, neoclassical theory has failed to integrate transaction costs into its core. The dominant mode of theorizing depends upon Brouwer fixed points which cannot integrate transaction costs in more than a superficial manner. Agent-based modeling presents an opportunity for researchers to investigate the nature of transaction costs and integrate them into the core of economic theory. To the extent that transaction costs reduce economic efficiency, they provide opportunities for entrepreneurs to earn a profit by reducing these costs. We employ an extension of Epstein and Axtell’s (1996) Sugarscape to demonstrate this point one type of transaction costs: search costs. When agents do not face the cost of finding a trading partner, the system quickly reaches a steady state with tightly constrained prices regardless of agent production strategies. When search costs are present, entrepreneurs may use competing strategies for production and exchange that allow them to earn higher revenues than they would earn otherwise. These cost reducing innovations tend to promote concatenate coordination (Klein 2012). The agent’s production strategies represent technology in the form of mental models (Denzau and North 1994) that shape agent action with regard to the agent’s environment. The success of these are dependent on their ability to overcome search costs. The average profit, market rate of return, earned by each of these mental structures tends to equalize as a result of competition.     

On positional consumption and technological innovation: an agent-based model

Positional behaviour is arguably a source of social externalities. Remedies for this market failure are defended by some authors and rejected by others. One of the issues discussed is the role that the competition for positional goods may have in generating technological innovation. This article aims to contribute to the understanding of the dynamics of this process through the use of an agent-based model. Simulations show a plausible dynamics of the process of technological innovation as generated by consumption of positional nature. An interpretation of the results in the scope of the policy discussion in question is provided. The influence of key factors such as income inequality, the materialization of the Hirsch conjecture, and characteristics of the network of relative preferences, is analised. We also frame the potential interest of positional consumption and this model in particular in the context of the ongoing discussion among evolutionary economists on the behaviour of demand.     

Income inequality,consumer debt,and prudential regulation: An agent-based approach to study the emergence of crises and financial instability

The paper presents an agent-based model to study the interaction between income inequality and prudential regulations in a macroeconomic framework characterized by consumer debt. Simulation results show that income inequality is detrimental to both macro and financial stability as it leads to higher credit demands, higher unemployment rates, economic volatility, and financial fragility. Besides the importance of consumers' leveraging, deleveraging externalities are found to be equally important for the emergence of crises and financial fragility because of the liquidity risk they entail. Minsky moments are also observed; they are related to consumers' prudential behavior and their beliefs about the macroeconomic conditions. Concerning the policy relevance of our investigation, simulations allow us to highlight that the effectiveness of prudential regulation depends on the phase of the business cycle and that there is not a “one-size-fits-all” regulation. This study emphasizes that regulatory constraints should take into account the features of the economic agents, such as the distribution of income and their willingness to borrow, in addition to the features of the financial sector.     

A multi-stage race model with strategic interaction: An agent-based simulation approach

We consider a multi-stage race characterized by technological uncertainty and winner-take-all stakes. A number of studies have found that players in such a race tend to behave strategically by adjusting their effort levels according to their relative ranks. The aim of the present study was to examine the dynamics and the results of such interaction. For this purpose, we employed an agent-based computational approach that enabled us to better understand the dynamics of a race, particularly those in which players exhibit heterogeneous behaviors. The results found that strategic interaction decreases the total cost but also results in delaying the completion of a race. Also, it was discovered, larger budgets rather than strategy differences have more significant effects on the probability of players winning a race. Finally, our study suggested that early preemption is an effective strategy that can improve the probability of winning races substantially.     

Insurance,self-protection,and the economics of terrorism

This paper investigates the rationale for public intervention in the terrorism insurance market. It argues that government subsidies for terror insurance have the effect of discouraging self-protection and limiting the negative externalities associated with self-protection. Cautious self-protective behavior by a target can hurt public goods like national prestige if it is seen as “giving in” to the terrorists, and may increase the loss probabilities faced by others by encouraging terrorists to substitute toward more vulnerable targets. We argue that these externalities in protection are essential for normative analysis of government intervention in insurance markets and may also explain why availability problems in this market have engendered much stronger government responses than similar problems in other catastrophe insurance markets.     

Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods

Many forms of analyzing future technology and its consequences coexist, for example, technology intelligence, forecasting, roadmapping, assessment, and foresight. All of these techniques fit into a field we call technology futures analysis (TFA). These methods have matured rather separately, with little interchange and sharing of information on methods and processes. There is a range of experience in the use of all of these, but changes in the technologies in which these methods are used—from industrial to information and molecular—make it necessary to reconsider the TFA methods. New methods need to be explored to take advantage of information resources and new approaches to complex systems. Examination of the processes sheds light on ways to improve the usefulness of TFA to a variety of potential users, from corporate managers to national policy makers. Sharing perspectives among the several TFA forms and introducing new approaches from other fields should advance TFA methods and processes to better inform technology management as well as science and research policy.     

Endogenous business cycles and Harrodian instability in an agent-based model

The article presents an original stock-flow consistent macroeconomic agent-based model with the aim to reexamine Harrod’s instability principle as an explanatory element of macroeconomic dynamics. The main findings are that bottom-up economic models can be subject to Harrodian instability and can produce endogenous cycles without introducing innovation waves, monetary wage spirals, or financial instability. Upward instability is stopped by the ceiling of full employment, and downward instability can be tamed by introducing an autonomous expenditure that feeds aggregate demand.     

Terrorist backlash, terrorism mitigation, and policy delegation

This paper presents a three-stage proactive game involving terrorists, elected policymakers, and voters. In each of two targeted countries, a representative voter chooses an elected policymaker, charged with deciding proactive countermeasures to ameliorate a transnational terrorist threat. Two primary considerations drive the voters' strategic choice: free riding on the other countries' countermeasures and limiting a reprisal terrorist attack. The resulting low proactive countermeasures benefit the terrorists, whose attacks successfully exploit voters' strategic actions. This finding stems from a delegation problem where leadership by voters has a detrimental consequence on the well-being of targeted countries. Domestic politics add another layer of concern when addressing a common terrorist threat.     

Industrial Democracy: Toward an Analytical Framework

The credit card market has evolved into what is defined here as a "peacock market." Analogous to extravagant and inefficient male peacock displays, a "peacock market" has developed to become dominated by elaborate signals that are no longer connected in a meaningful way to price, quality, or efficiency.

The focus of this analysis is on how the institutional framework of the credit card market has evolved. It is concluded that while recent and proposed regulations are beneficial, a peacock market-based strategy is already embedded in current institutional thinking and will be very difficult to reverse.     

A socio-political approach to exploring the innovation culture in post-socialist countries: the case of Croatia

Innovation culture and the social determinants of national innovation capacities have rarely been empirically researched in innovation-weak post-socialist countries despite the fact that innovation is considered one of the main drivers of their economic growth and convergence. Applying an alternative approach to identifying the factors that shape a national innovation culture is challenging as there has been little empirical research in the area. Moreover, the global cross-cultural concepts of national innovation culture hold little relevance for post-socialist countries. The trans-disciplinary socio-political approach employed in this article relies on the qualitative analysis of the dominant concepts used in political economy and sociology to identify the socio-cultural and political aspects of Croatia’s post-socialist transformation into a capitalist country. This is presented as one of the critical formative determinants of innovation culture. Croatia is chosen as a typical innovation-weak post-socialist country, where innovation remains weak. The analysis presented here suggests that transition-induced factors dominated by ‘crony variance of capitalism’ have an equal, if not a greater, suppressive impact on the current innovation culture than standard explanations based on the socio-cultural heritage of socialism and cultural inertia.     

Poverty, political freedom, and the roots of terrorism in developing countries: An empirical assessment

We find that political freedom has a significant and non-linear effect on domestic terrorism, but has no statistically significant effect on transnational terrorism. Geography and fractionalization limit a country’s ability to curb terrorism, while strong legal institutions deter terrorism.     

Toward an Evolutionary and Moral Science

Thorstein Veblen asked in 1898 why economics is not an evolutionary science; he also proposed a Darwinian paradigm shift for economics. Among the implications reviewed here was his claim that Darwinian principles applied to social entities as well as to biological phenomena. It is also argued that economists have additional reasons for taking Darwinian evolution seriously. Recent work on the evolution of altruism, cooperation and morality show that we are on the brink of developing an evolutionary-grounded theory of human motivation that breaks from the selfish utility-maximizer lambasted by Veblen. This new theory accepts a biological as well as a cultural foundation for moral dispositions. As noted here, the neglected British institutional economist John A. Hobson — who was an acquaintance of Veblen — foreshadowed this approach.     

Hindsight,insight, and foresight: a multi-level structural variation approach to the study of a scientific field

In this article we introduce a multi-level structural variation approach to the study of a scientific field. The approach is motivated by an explanatory and computational theory of transformative discovery and novel structural variation metrics derived from the theory. We integrate the theoretical framework with a visual analytic process that enables an analyst to study the literature of a scientific field across multiple levels of aggregation and decomposition, including the field as a whole, specialties, topics and predicates. We demonstrate the use of this approach through a study of regenerative medicine.