Technology and the Hydra of terrorism?

In the application of new technologies that address the terrorism problem, an objective is to ensure that the technology does not cause more problems than it solves. Potential new technologies, including convergences of genomics, robotics, information technology, and nanotechnology, might rapidly develop. As with any technological advance, each of these offers a mixture of benefits and risks. At first, a direct approach is reviewed by looking at how these technologies might deter the motive, means, and opportunity for terrorist activities. While there are many potential deterrence applications, other issues are identified that might cause unintended problems in the system. Some of these problems include the possible contribution to terrorist motives by increasing stresses toward divisiveness in society, terrorist means through the development of dual-use technologies, or terrorist opportunities by further developing technological vulnerabilities.Next, a more systemic approach is taken by reviewing a wider range of issues, such as resource availability, management of science and technology, and general societal trends. The balance between technological change and social response is important in realizing benefits while mitigating unintended consequences such as harmful uses through terrorist actions. To explore issues concerning this balance, possible technological development scenarios are reviewed, including the possibility of accelerating or slowing technological development. Some recent recommendations are considered within this context. The need for a balance between technological and social response in this asymmetric situation suggests that the benefits of a rapid technological response against terrorism might not be as large as those observed during World War II.     

The Delphi method as early warning: Linking global societal trends to future radicalization and terrorism in The Netherlands

A Delphi study was performed to answer the question: Which global societal trends relate to future radicalization and subsequent terrorism in the Netherlands? An inventory of two hundred global societal trends and a literature study of radicalization together served as briefing of the participants in the Delphi study. The first two rounds were conducted in anonymous writing. The third round was a face to face focus group meeting. In the first and second round participants scored the trends, adjusted their scores relative to others and provided arguments, and in the focus group meeting, themes were discussed in which the participants remained to have strong opposite views. This approach emphasizes divergence in opinion (‘dissensus’), as opposed to convergence (‘consensus’). Consensus seeking to us seems to be the dominant application of Delphi, but we emphasize the value of seeking dissensus. We hypothesize that in those cases where the opposite views that were discussed kept their ground, this Delphi study may have found early warnings of future radicalization.The essence of this paper is that it is possible, with limited effort, to get a handle on the complex and poorly defined subject of global societal trends influencing future radicalization. Application of the Dissensus Delphi method provided a selection of early warnings that may be looked into with future research.     

中国-东盟自由贸易区:西南地区经济发展的机遇和挑战

中国—东盟自由贸易区的建立将西南地区推到双边经贸合作的前沿地带,突出了中国西南特殊的沿边区位、沿海区位、沿江区位和地缘区位优势。中国—东盟自由贸易区建成后,四川、重庆、广西、云南等西南省区将成为最大受益者,因为目前它们一半出口货物都是流向周边的东盟各国。有关统计数字显示,2002 年,中国和东盟的双边贸易额同比增长了 31.7% ,达到 547.7 亿美元。据海关统计,中国—东盟贸易额在中国对外贸易总额中所占比重已由 1991 年 的 5.8% 上 升 到 2002年 的 8.8% ,2004 年 已 达 到 11% ,2004 年双边贸易额历史性 地突破了 1000 亿美…     

工业经济协调发展系统动力学仿真——以青岛市为例

系统动力学研究的是复杂系统的反馈结构,擅长于处理非线性时变的多重反馈问题,比较适合于长期、动态、战略性的研究,是研究区域产业经济协调发展系统的一种重要的定量分析工具.本文采用该方法,建立了青岛市工业经济协调发展的系统动力学模型进行模拟仿真,模型由工业经济子系统、区域技术创新子系统和区域经济环境子系统组成,通过模拟仿真进行工业经济发展趋势预测,仿真值和真实值误差较小,模型能较好的反映青岛市工业经济发展现状.并选择政府科技投入占财政支出比例和投资比例作为控制变量,以工业生产总值和区域GDP为监测变量建立三种发展模式,通过不同发展模式仿真结果的分析和比较,提出青岛市应加大政府科技投入占财政支出比例和投资比例,实现工业经济协调发展.     

Terrorism and its impact on economic growth and technological innovation

Recent terrorist acts, in particular the 9-11 attacks in 2001, have created disruptions in the global economy. The short-term impact had been felt in the global tourism, airline industries, as well as the financial markets. While the global economy has recovered and is adjusting to the new global realities, the longer-term impact of heightened security risk across the world can be felt in the form of higher risk premiums in asset markets, as well as a shift of resources towards dealing with terrorism. Just as World War II had accelerated the development of nuclear energy as well as a major contributing factor in the genesis of Silicon Valley, the current war against terrorism will affect both the pace and trajectory of technology trends, as efforts are focused on developing technologies to combat terrorism. In this paper, we review the effects of the current war on terrorism in terms of its impact on the economy, the allocation of resources to R&D, and the trajectory of future R&D.     

审慎把握南苏丹的投资机遇

2011年,南苏丹独立建国后,由于地缘政治和族群矛盾等问题,2012年,再次爆发南北苏丹边境战争以及2013年争夺内部权力的族群战争,之后更是冲突不断,所有这些都对在南苏丹投资带来极大风险。与此同时,由于多年战乱,南苏丹经济发展极端落后,基础设施投入严重不足,无形之中增加投资成本。但南苏丹是非洲最年轻的国家,虽饱受战乱困扰,仍充满生机与活力。     

技术创新系统的功能分析框架

近年来,以特定技术作为分析出发点的技术创新系统（TIS）思路被提出。该思路强调对创新系统运行及其目标实现具有重大作用的活动（activities）或过程（processes）,并称之为创新系统功能。系统功能之间既可以形成良性循环,加速系统的成长;也可能由于某个功能的缺失或不足而出现恶性循环,阻碍系统的发展,甚至使之崩溃。良性循环和恶性循环在一定的条件下会相互转化。在介绍和分析系统功能组合以及功能之间互动机制的基础上,提供了一个评估技术创新系统功能运行的分析框架,以期从功能的角度识别导致系统失灵的原因,为政策制定者提供干预目标。     

试论制度创新决定技术创新

创新是一个系统,不是个体行为.在创新系统中,主体与客体是多样的、分层次的.一个国家的创新活动主要体现在两个层面:即自然技术创新与社会技术创新.在创新中,企业是技术创新的主体,政府是制度创新(社会技术创新)的主体.新制度经济学认为,制度创新决定技术创新.著名经济学家吴敬琏在总结原苏联及我国的改革实践后也得出了同样的结论.我国当前面临的结构调整与经济转型的实质就是创新问题.技术创新是有成本的,这种成本不取决于创新成本本身,而主要取决于制度成本与风险.当外部成本与风险过大时,创新收益无法保证,创新主体就会放弃创新,进而选择投机取巧.     

都市农业旅游的系统动力学模型研究

都市农业旅游是现代都市农业与旅游业相结合的产物,其可持续发展有利于实现农业增效和农民增收,推进社会主义新农村建设。运用系统动力学的原理和方法,分析都市农业旅游可持续发展各子系统的因果反馈关系,构建都市农业旅游可持续发展系统的系统动力学模型,并以广州从化市都市农业旅游可持续发展为例进行系统仿真,筛选出适合广州从化市都市农业旅游可持续发展的最优模式。通过上述研究,更好地为相关决策者提供都市农业旅游可持续发展的理论依据与应对方案。     

Assessing emerging technologies—Methodological challenges and the case of nanotechnologies

Technology Assessment reflecting on R&D and technological trends in the area of nanotechnology and its implications is confronted with the problem that most scientific endeavours of nanotechnology can be allocated to basic research while most of the technological visions related to nanotechnology are far (> 10 years) in the future. Since technology assessment has to integrate the socio-economic context of a technical product in order to be comprehensive, in the case of nanotechnology a preparing step is necessary which connects the ongoing basic research with the visions communicated either by the scientist themselves or by the media. In this paper we propose to adapt the well known tool ‘roadmapping’ to contribute to the solution of this problem. This poses new challenges for roadmapping methodology in terms of level of aggregation and timeframe.     

发展中国家金融危机的两难与机遇

受制于自身的发展水平和世界经济体系中的地位,发展中国家不仅是经济领域的落后,也是整体性制度安排的落后。所以,金融危机对发展中国家影响的后果不仅体现在经济领域,也体现在非经济领域。金融危机放大了发展中国家存在的固有问题,使其反危机政策的制定和实施处于两难境地,进而制约各项反周期政策的实施,但反危机政策的+国际协调也为发展中国家提升在国际经济体系中的地位带来了机遇。     

大数据时代管理会计的机遇、挑战与应对

互联网时代已经到来,互联网在人们的工作和生活当中被广泛使用,互联网已经渗透到了社会生活的各个方面,企业在发展的过程当中也迎来了大数据时代。企业在大数据的背景下,可以与管理会计结合,为自身的发展创造更好的机会。在大数据时代,管理会计的作用能够更好地体现出来,但是在管理会计发展的过程当中,也会面临着很多的挑战。     

军民技术创新体系协同运行影响因素研究

首先,采用因子分析法对研究筛选的22个影响因素进行因子分析,提取出政府、市场、中介服务、技术、创新平台资源、信息、治理结构、管理水平和协同战略9个公因子;其次,采用逐步回归法分析上述9个公因子对军民技术创新体系协同运行的影响作用,9个公因子可回归为宏观、中观和微观3大因素。结果表明,9个公因子对军民技术创新体系协同运行具有不同程度的影响。其中,政府、创新平台资源和组织管理水平因子影响作用最明显。     

技术创新链的结构、形成与运行

技术创新链是围绕核心技术、基于技术配套的技术创新体系。配套技术既包含上下游互补的纵向配套技术,也包含基于同一技术环节的横向配套技术。技术创新链的形成源于企业技术知识的有限性、产品的互补性以及对创新的速度经济的追求。技术创新链的运行包含基于平台、专利池和协议研发的3种运行机制。     

基于自组织理论的产业集群共性技术创新研究

产业集群共性技术创新是一个由共性技术的识别、研发与商业化扩散构成的集体学习过程,对产业集群竞争力的提升与可持续发展意义重大。从经济系统自组织理论的视角对此进行了探索。理论模型及案例研究表明：产业集群共性技术创新是一个由创新行为主体子系统、创新服务主体子系统和创新环境子系统耦合而成的自组织系统。与此同时,子系统或要素间合作随机概率、自组织特征、自组织机制以及创新外部性的阶段性演变,共同推动了产业集群共性技术创新自组织系统从自创生、自生长向自维持阶段演进和跃迁,并由此决定了产业集群共性技术创新管理体制和组织模式的阶段性与多样性。     

以整体竞争优势应对挑战--入世后中国外经企业的发展

加入世贸组织后,以对外工程承包和劳务为主业、业务重点在国外市场的外经公司将受到很大的冲击和影响,具体表现在：一、入世给我们带来了机遇根据世界贸易组织的非歧视贸易原则,中国在加入世界贸易组织后,一方面开放国内建筑业市场,另一方面中国建筑企业也将获得更多的国外市场准入机会,因此,对中国国际工程承包和劳务业而言,冲击国际市场的机遇将会越来越多。首先,外经公司的市场准入机会将有所增加。目前,中国外经企业主要在第三世界国家承包由国际金融组织,如世界银行、亚洲发展银行、非洲发展银行等提供资金的工程项目,或为…     

The Origins of Entrepreneurial Opportunities

Kirzner's (1973) theory of entrepreneurship emphasizes the equilibrating role of entrepreneurship. When the market is not in equilibrium, profit opportunities exist, and entrepreneurs discover and act on these profit opportunities to equilibrate the market. Because Kirzner focuses on entrepreneurial actions when profit opportunities exist, and does not describe where they come from, one could imagine a fixed stock of profit opportunities that get used up as entrepreneurs discover them. But new profit opportunities are being created constantly. A taxonomy of the origins of entrepreneurial opportunities includes factors that disequilibrate the market, factors that enhance production possibilities, and most notably, opportunities created from previous acts of entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurial actions do not use up profit opportunities, but create them, and the critical role of entrepreneurship in the creation of new profit opportunities is emphasized. This line of reasoning leads directly to policy implications regarding the economic environment conducive to entrepreneurial discovery and the role of government in research and development. This paper enhances Kirzner's theory of entrepreneurship by illustrating how entrepreneurship enlarges the stock of future entrepreneurial opportunities, and points to entrepreneurship as the engine of economic progress.     

中美国家科技决策体系:国家、部委和项目层面的比较研究

中美两国拥有迥然不同的国家科技决策体系,其差异具体体现在国家、部委和项目3个决策层面。基于宏观视角比较研究了中美国家科技计划决策体系,从两国科技计划决策体系总体特征、决策层面、决策过程、决策环境入手,剖析中美国家科技计划决策过程背后的逻辑。结果发现,美国科技决策体系为典型的\"自下而上\"式决策结构,上层决策主体多元而分散,存在政治分肥;下层执行主体清晰,决策独立集中。中国则为\"自上而下\"式决策结构,上层主体明确,战略决策集中有效;下层执行主体分散,缺乏专业化管理。研究结论为决策者和研究者提供了一个比较清晰的框架,加深了对中美科技决策的理解,有助于促进中美科技对话与交流。     

Evolution of market shares with repeated purchases and heterogeneous network externalities

We investigate how market shares change when a new, superior technology exhibiting network externalities is introduced in a market initially dominated by an old technology. This is done under the assumption that consumers are heterogeneous in their valuation of technology quality and network externalities and that goods are not (perfectly) durable and thus have to be bought repeatedly. When both technologies are unsponsored, the old technology dominates when the quality difference is small, and it disappears when the quality difference is large. When the new technology is sponsored, the relationship between the quality difference and the long-run market share of the new technology is non-monotonic and the old technology always continues to exist.