The future of the future: Strategic foresight in Latin America

With few differences in timing, future studies in Latin America were initiated with a linear conception of reality. Orchestrated with techniques such as the Delphi, future studies were supported by mathematical principles of probability. Several countries have surpassed this stage while moving into strategic foresight. Strategic foresight analyzes the future as a multiple reality. In other words, it means thinking differently and not reading reality in a linear manner. It means accepting that there is not one future but several futures and that one question could have more than one answer.This change has demanded a shift in mentality. The presence of the disciplines in universities is of vital importance. For example, the Technological Institute of Monterrey (Mexico) and the Universidad Externado de Colombia (Bogota) offer foresight and strategy programs at the graduate level.This article describes how different individuals, groups, agencies and institutions in Latin America have emerged thanks to the support provided by the science and technology governmental agencies of each country. The author provides examples from different countries including Colombia, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Currently, strategic foresight is slowly gaining recognition and acceptance as a compass for productive sectors and as a generator of competitiveness.However, despite the contributions of strategic foresight, Latin American countries, with the exception of some of the above-mentioned countries, have struggled to take off into the future. The role of strategic foresight can become the driving force behind this awakening, if the challenge of linking global trends with local contextualization through scenarios is accepted.     

Foresight within ERA-NETs: Experiences from the preparation of an international research program

In this paper, we address challenges of organizing future-oriented consultation processes within European coordination tools for ‘Open Method of Coordination’ – such as ERA-NETs – which are promoted by the European Commission towards the establishment of the European Research Area. Specifically, we report experiences from a recent consultation process that was organized within WoodWisdom-Net (ERA-NET) with the aim of creating an international research agenda, based on the recognition of long-term challenges of the European forest sector and the attendant identification of gaps and new opportunities in wood material science and engineering. This consultation process involved eighteen funding organizations from eight European countries, as well as over 400 participants who represented relevant stakeholder groups, most notably leading researchers and industrialists. Methodologically, the process was based on the Internet-based solicitation and assessment of research issues, the deployment of Robust Portfolio Modeling (RPM) in the identification of promising research issues, and facilitated workshops where the results of Internet-based activities where discussed, validated and synthesized. In addition, extensive network analyses were conducted to support the identification of possible collaboration networks and the development of joint calls for proposals. Drawing on the results from the WoodWisdom-Net consultation process, we discuss the broader potential of Internet-based decision support tools and participatory workshops in promoting foresight activities within ERA-NETs and European coordination tools.     

Establishment and embedding of innovation brokers at different innovation system levels: Insights from the Dutch agricultural sector

In the systems perspective on innovation, co-operation between several different types of actors is seen as key to successful innovation. Due to the existence of several gaps that hinder such effective co-operation, the scientific and policy literature persistently points at the need for intermediary organizations to fulfill bridging and brokerage roles. This paper aims to provide an overview of the insights from the literature on such ‘innovation brokers’, and to contribute to the literature by distilling lines of enquiry and providing insights on one of the lines identified. Taking as an empirical basis experiences with different types of innovation brokers that have emerged in the Dutch agricultural sector, it identifies a number of tensions with regard to the establishment and embedding of such organizations. The paper indicates that, despite being perceived to have a catalyzing effect on innovation, innovation brokers have difficulty in becoming embedded as their clients and/or financiers find it difficult to grasp the nature and value of their activities.     

Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm

In the last three decades much knowledge has been produced on how best to conduct foresight exercises, but little is known on how foresight should be integrated with the innovation effort of a company. Drawing on empirical evidence from 19 case studies and 107 interviews, we identify three roles that corporate foresight should play to maximize the innovation capacity of a firm: (1) the strategist role, which explores new business fields; (2) the initiator role, which increases the number of innovation concepts and ideas; and (3) the opponent role, which challenges innovation projects to increase the quality of their output.     

Medical technology decisions in The Netherlands: How to solve the dilemma of technology foresight versus market research?

In this article, we discuss a dilemma consisting of the market-oriented perspective of users of medical technology versus the long-term technology foresight perspective. The context of medical technology is interesting, because we have to cope with complex future-oriented multi-level and multi-actor strategic decision making. In order to deal with this dilemma we suggest combining the results of a (group) expert opinion forecasting approach with a more market-oriented scenario-approach. More specifically, we use the results of the Delphi-technique as the main input for the development of various capacity (Market-based) scenarios. We exemplify this approach by a real life example directed at the future of imaging techniques for cancer care in The Netherlands and focus on a set of scenarios that deal with the application of the MRI-technique in the period 2005–2015. The Delphi-panel's expectations with respect to imaging technology representing the technological forecasts, combined with other relevant developments (such as demographic and epidemiological developments) are translated into alternative inputs for assumptions of the scenario-model. This model is basic to the future projections in terms of needed MRI-scanners, manpower and investments. We argue that the results provide motivation to continue to explore the methodological interesting area of innovation, aligning the market-oriented perspective of users of (medical) technology with the long-term technology forecasting perspective.     

Strategic foresight in corporate organizations: Handling the effect and response uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change

Today many companies in many industries put a lot of efforts into monitoring and investigating emerging drivers of change in their business environment, particularly in relation to new technologies and events in the social, economic, political and ecological landscapes which surround their industry. So far scholars in the literature on foresight and future studies focused on the techniques and practices for analysing the “state” uncertainty about the likely path of evolution of emerging drivers of change. Anyway, less attention was devoted to the “effect” uncertainty about the impact of drivers of change on the competitive position of the firm and to the “response” uncertainty about how to take advantage of these drivers. These are the main issues we take into account, through a field research on firms that, notwithstanding they were able to properly assess the likely evolution (state uncertainty) of relevant drivers of change in their industry, either were successful or dramatically failed in handling the effect and response uncertainty of these drivers. Moreover, we carried out multiple case studies of some large companies that have established an organizational unit dedicated to strategic foresight. Overall, the results of our research may contribute to improve the effectiveness of strategic foresight and to increase its value added to the planning process of corporate firms, while providing helpful insight to public organizations that promote foresight exercises for enhancing the competitiveness of local firms.     

海外情境下本土后发企业颠覆性创新演化路径研究--价值创新视角

近年来,我国后发企业在海外市场面临着政策限制、市场挤压和技术竞争等挑战。颠覆性创新作为管理实践中重要的创新理论与分析工具,价值创新为进一步探索颠覆性创新技术演化与市场侵入提供了新的着眼点,从而为海外情境下后发企业突围提供了重要理论支持。基于颠覆性创新和价值创新相关理论研究,采用扎根理论并借助NVivo12对一加手机案例进行自下而上编码,归纳其演化路径。结果发现:本土后发企业在海外市场的颠覆性创新演化模型主要由4个主范畴构成,其中异质性需求定位是颠覆性创新价值主张的前提,用户中心化技术创新是价值创造的源泉,融入文化的商业化创新是价值传递的手段,市场侵蚀是价值实现的终端。结论可拓展颠覆性创新理论情境,对本土后发企业开拓海外市场具有实践价值。     

Portugal at the crossroads of change, facing the shock of the new: People, knowledge and ideas fostering the social fabric to facilitate the concentration of knowledge integrated communities

Portugal has recently achieved the average OECD level in terms of the number of researchers per thousand workforce and the need to continue fostering the advanced training of human resources and the concentration of knowledge integrated communities as drivers of larger communities of users is discussed in the context of changing and evolving patterns in Portugal. This requires an ongoing public effort, but also a better understanding of the effectiveness of the mix of public support mechanisms and private incentives for the development of knowledge networks and flows of skilled people in times of increased uncertainty.Our hypothesis gains from the experience of a unique set of international collaborations with leading institutions worldwide that has been successfully developed over the last years based on thematic R&D networks, integrating advanced training initiatives and programs of industrial affiliation. It is in this context that we frame our hypothesis and argue for the need for Portugal to continue attracting and fostering open and dynamic “creative communities”.The main policy implication of our analysis is that Portugal needs to double the number of researchers per thousand workforce in the coming years. This requires a broad social basis for science policies across a wide range of public and private sectors, as well as that innovation is considered together with competence building and the need to foster individual skills through the complex interaction between formal and informal qualifications. Emerging user-centered innovation requires users able to access new knowledge. This implies a broad societal engagement in knowledge activities, including higher education enrolment, and we need to strengthen the top of the research system in order to create a locus of knowledge production at the highest level. But it also implies consideration of the social shaping of technology, because incentives and infrastructures do not operate in a vacuum, but shape and are shaped by the particular context in which they operate. Strengthening external societal links and “system linkages” is critical in making the institutional changes required to meet the needs of global competition and the knowledge economy.     

Generic innovation dynamics across the industrial technology life cycle: Platform equation modeling of invention and innovation activity

We describe here a generic approach to innovation dynamics based on an integrated framework for inventions and innovations applied via a platform equation and model across the industrial technology life cycle. We test the model for metals and other materials, and demonstrate that this model correctly describes the production activity for several materials and energy conversion technologies.Innovation activity patterns are shown for several oxides, metals, oil and wind energy and its derivatives. The metals Cu, Al, W, Mo and Pb are particularly studied for the amount produced over time. The total activity for the metals encompasses both the invention and innovation stage for a particular metal. Four major stages and two sub stages are identified for the discovery (invention) and subsequent growth regimes (i.e. the innovation stage). The pattern equation appears to clearly capture all these stages for the metals studied — work is ongoing for similar analyses of energy and other materials. Although the metals studied existed over differing periods (e.g. copper greater than 200 years whereas aluminum, just over 100 years), one single pattern equation appears to capture all the major trends. The use of the model is also shown for productivity analysis, especially for the condition of radical innovation (very rapid growth). For sustained radical innovation, namely, when the output of the produced material per unit time, keeps on increasing with time, there are various factors which may influence growth. For the conditions where thermal activation and plant size are the dominant variables, their impact on the growth may be examined in the context of the pattern equation. A preliminary analysis of oxide production activity also appears to follow this same innovation model.The results suggest a fertile field of future research extending the initial platform equation model to include R&D, Patents, and Performance, as well as Sales, as innovation activity. Further, the model shows promise in combination with the ARI methodology model for analysis and assessment of existing and future industrial technology life cycles involving material, process, product, software and service innovations.     

The influence of the regional context on firms’ innovation patterns: evidence from Ecuador*

ABSTRACT

Using data from the Ecuadorean Innovation Survey of 2015, this paper identifies the innovation patterns that can be found in Ecuador. In addition, we analyse the influence of the regional innovation systems in determining these patterns. The results show that there are six differentiated patterns of innovation, although they all are related to the adoption and imitation of technologies. Finally, we observe that different regional characteristics condition the way in which firms organise innovation.     

The changing role of science in the innovation process: From Queen to Cinderella?

An overview of how the role of science in relation to innovation has been defined over the past five decades is given, showing a change from a linear to a chain-linked model of interpretation. A third analytical grid, leading to a new model is proposed, summarizing the current research on the nature of economically useful knowledge, the diversity of intervening players in learning and the outcomes of innovation. While the chain-linked view surpassed the linear model by emphasising that science is part of the process but not necessarily the initiating step, we need today to explicitly acknowledge the multi-player dimension of innovation and the wider institutional setting where distinct forms of learning take place. The reason is simple: almost all high added value products embody elements of scientific knowledge. But science is only one of a plurality of other sources of knowledge that induce innovation-based growth. More attention should also be given to understanding markets and organisations.     

The role of codified sources of knowledge in innovation: Empirical evidence from Dutch manufacturing

This paper explores ongoing debates about the role that codified forms of knowledge play in fostering innovative behaviour. It aims to provide an empirical exploration of the use of codified sources of information for innovation at the firm and sectoral level. Despite considerable interest in David and Forays (1995) work on the codification of knowledge and the changing nature of innovation due to the use of information and communication technologies, there are relatively few empirical studies that probe the role of codified sources of information in the innovation process. Our goal is to assess how important codified sources of information are for innovation among different firms and sectors. We find that use of codified sources of knowledge is highly concentrated in high technology sectors and among firms with existing absorptive capacity. The analysis shows that the use of other sources of information for innovation is a strong predictor of a firms use of codified sources. The data used for the analysis is based on The Netherlands Community Innovation Survey (II) for the manufacturing sector and covers over 2001 firms in 11 industries.JEL Classification: L60, O32, O33     

科学驱动视角下产业创新网络与生态主体研究——以5G产业为例

利用产业科学关联度指标清晰界定科学驱动的产业与创新,通过社会网络分析方法探究其在整个产业中的网络地位及其作用,并挖掘产业创新生态参与主体的网络关系。研究发现：科学驱动的创新成果处于网络中心位置,更容易被频繁的引用,能够为其他创新成果提供经验输出和知识依赖,成为驱动创新发展的基石,同时科学驱动的创新成果审查周期和技术覆盖广度在数值上显著大于“技术驱动的创新”,表明其能够产生高价值技术的可能性更大;科学驱动的产业是科学驱动的创新大量汇聚的产业,是整个行业发展的关键核心技术,具备取得、协调及配置资源的能力,能够整合内外部信息和知识资源,通过频繁的交流、协作带动其他产业的共同发展,为产业的形成演化奠定基础;在科学驱动的产业中,创新主体之间网络结构紧密,产学研协同融合体系发挥重要作用,企业占据主体地位成为创新的主体和参与科学研究的主体,而大学等公共机构的创新成果传播速度更快,在创新网络中的中心性地位具有不可替代的优势。     

An integrated decision-support approach in prioritizing risks of non-indigenous species in the face of high uncertainty

When evaluating the risks of future invasions, we often have sparse information on the likelihood that a species will arrive, establish and spread in a new environment, and on the potential impacts should this occur. Conventional risk assessment, therefore, is limited in providing guidance in managing the risk of non-indigenous species (NIS). However, risk management decisions must be made facing these uncertainties to avoid high and irreversible impacts.We develop an integrated ecological economic modeling and deliberative multi-criteria evaluation (DMCE) approach to support group decision-making in risk prioritization, using an example of ten NIS that could potentially impact Australian plant industries. This innovative approach seeks to combine the advantages of dynamic modeling with the benefits of DMCE in assessing and communicating uncertainty. The model unveils the complexity of the socio-ecological system of biological invasion, with a scenario analysis designed to interactively communicate scientific uncertainty to decision-makers. The DMCE provides a structured approach to identifying stakeholders' key concerns in addressing economic, social, and environmental dimensions of NIS risk explicitly. Functioning as a platform for risk communication, the DMCE also offers an opportunity for diverse views to enter the decision-making process and for the negotiation of consensus consensuses.     

产业视角下国内外数字化转型研究：综述及展望

随着数字化浪潮席卷全球,数字化转型已日益成为重点关注领域和热点话题,但鲜见基于产业视角的国内外数字化转型对比研究。基于战略一致性理论和动态能力理论,借助VOSviewer文献计量分析软件,对国内外数字化转型研究主题进行系统分析,探析国内外研究主题及关注领域异同点。结果表明,基于产业视角,国外侧重于疫情影响主题研究,而国内对媒体出版主题研究较多,创新和战略成为中外共同关注主题。结合产业视角下的国内外研究现状,针对数字化转型研究空白,从应用、商业、法规、数据和合作领域,绘制出产业视角下数字化转型研究的5条路径,并对未来研究和国家产业政策导向进行展望。     

The role of innovation in venture capital: empirical evidence from European Union and EFTA countries

This article investigates the effects of innovation attempts on the venture capital and investment activity in the cases of the selected European Union plus European Free Trade Agreement countries using annual panel data and by controlling for real income growth and business sophistication. Our findings suggest that innovation has positively significant effects on venture capital in the cases without opt-out countries (United Kingdom and Denmark); however, these effects become negative in the cases with opt-out countries. Policy implications are provided in the conclusion section of this study.     

Foresight and innovation in the context of industrial clusters: The case of some Italian districts

The “territory” is widely recognized in the literature on business strategy as a critical driver of industrial competitiveness (see, as an example, Porter, The Competitive Advantage of Nations). The generation and exploitation of new knowledge, both tacit and explicit, through the process of socialization, articulation, combination and internalization (see Nonaka and Takeuchi, The Knowledge-Creating Company) is essential to enable innovation of processes and products of “local” firms.Our recent Foresight exercises in the metal working and machinery district of Lecco and in the silk district of Como show that Foresight can play an important role in creating and exploiting new knowledge, and that different methodologies can be more or less effective to this aim.Critical technology list and interactive workshops, with the participation of entrepreneurs of SMEs and technologists, are more suited to foster the transfer of technologies that have overcome the initial stage of the life cycle and that have been already applied in other sectors. However, when radical innovations are needed in order to face the challenges posed by global competition, other methodologies, as Scenarios, are more appropriate. Even if these approaches are complex and time and resource consuming, they may be very effective in actively involving the most relevant private and public stakeholders of a district, and in making them to envisage the long term future of the economic, social, and cultural structure of their district. In this way Foresight drives the small entrepreneurs, the district stakeholders and the medium and large size firms to play the critical roles of Nonaka and Takeuchi's “frontline employees”, “senior managers” and “middle managers” in their “knowledge creating company”: the first ones grasp what the district is; the second ones build the vision of what it ought to be; the third ones, serve as a bridge between the future and the present.     

Driving force from authorities: the evolution of innovation system for biomedical industry in China

Over the past 30 years, China has fully exploited its advantage to steadily foster an innovation system for the biomedical industry with Chinese characteristics, that is, ‘Government-guided, resource-integrated and long-term planning.’ The system originated from historically famous ‘863 program’ in the 1980s, evolved with a series of favourable policies in the different periods, and eventually has taken shape in the industrial clusters across the country. It features with a systematic and integrated R&D infrastructure (or public platform) at different levels. In this study, China’s biomedical innovation system will be examined and the leading role of Chinese authorities will be explored from the perspective of Triple Helix theory. As the ‘highland of innovation’, Shanghai case is highlighted with plentiful information gathered from primary sources in the involved agencies for the first time, including the Shanghai Biopharma Service Platform.     

Dynamic multidimensional assessment of sustainability at the macro level: The case of Austria

This paper explores the issue of sustainability at the macro scale employing multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) methods. The incommensurability of values and the essentially multi-dimensional and dynamic nature of sustainability challenge the use of composite measurement indices. This determined the choice of MCDA methods. Austria was chosen as a case study, due to the wide availability of data, especially on indicators of strong sustainability. The structure of the multi-criteria problem comprised the evolution of different sustainability dimensions over time. The process for selecting criteria included a critical assessment of institutional sustainability agendas (UN, EU and Austrian Government) and theoretical recommendations.After an assessment of MCDA methods, the NAIADE method demonstrated the most suitable properties for sustainability assessment. The application of this outranking approach was undertaken in three separate settings: long-term from 1960 to 2003, medium-term, 1970-1995, and short-term, 1995-2003 with varying numbers of criteria. The response of results to the addition of evaluating criteria and periods was tested. The degree of credibility for accepting preference relations was also employed for sensitivity analysis.According to the results of long-term and medium-term assessments, especially in the weak sustainability setting, sustainable progress is taking place in Austria. In the short term, in the stronger sustainability setting and, especially as the number of criteria increases, more incomparable periods appear and trends are less determined. Moreover, it is shown how results crucially depend on the methodological choices.This is one of the first applications of the multi-criteria tools to the dynamic analysis of sustainability at the macro scale.     

Time path in innovation, imitation, and growth: the case of the motorcycle industry in postwar Japan

This study attempts to explore how an industry evolves over time based on a case study of the motorcycle industry in Japan from 1948 to 1964. Using individual firm data, we estimate the determinants of technology improvement and firm growth separately for different development phases, after controlling for the probability of firm survival. We find that the industrys rapid growth in the early phase can be explained by massive entry and the imitation of simple technologies, whereas sustained growth in later phases can be explained by innovations and subsequent imitations, as well as the exit of inefficient firms.JEL Classification: O14, L10, L62, N65 Correspondence to: Tetsushi SonobeWe are grateful to Kotaro Horiuchi, Shunji Tanaka, Katsuaki Nishino, Michael Kevane, Uwe Cantner, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions.