Das Umlaufvermögen von Verteilnetzbetreibern

How much current assets are needed to operate a distribution system in Germany? The German “Energiewende” requires tremendous amounts of investment in the distribution network over the next years. The return of invested capital is regulated by § 7 Strom/GasNEV (German network tariff regulations). Current assets are principally included in the regulatory asset base in order to determine the regulatory equity yield rate. The regulatory authorities and distribution system operators have different point of views regarding the proper amount of current assets needed for operating a distribution network. This debate seems quite significant when considering that the average ratio of current assets to total assets is 25%. On the other hand, one could argue that distribution system operators do not need current assets at all. In order to address the issue of the proper amount of current assets for distribution system operators, business specific processes (such as the “EEG process”) should be examined. Furthermore, the provision of current assets causes costs of capital, which reduces the shareholder value and makes the acquisition of capital more challenging. This paper analyses such interrelations between current assets and shareholder value in regulated markets. Moreover, the current regulatory practice of cutting current assets in the regulatory asset base to a standardized amount does not seem appropriate. Rather there is a need for a multi-level and item-by-item based valuation scheme: Is the item required for the business? Is the amount limited to the efficient minimum? Is the amount comparable to other businesses? Concerning this matter, this paper examines proper instruments, such as the cash flow statement. In addition, this paper benchmarks the current (liquidity) ratio of distribution system operators and non-regulated companies. Based on this benchmark, the current assets of distribution system operators appear comparatively efficient. The results point out a need of action regarding current regulatory practice.     

Ökonomische Analyse der Erstnutzer von Elektrofahrzeugen

Plug-in hybrids and purely electric vehicles are currently being intensively discussed. The economic efficiency of these vehicles is essential for their future market success. As economic analyses of the specific driving profiles of customer groups in Germany have shown, economic efficiency depends on factors such as vehicle mileage, the share of urban driving and the share of electrical driving. For the first users of electric mobility, small, purely electrically-operated town cars will be offered in 2015. About 4 % of German car drivers were found to be suitable for such a car. Later on, plug-in hybrids will also become attractive for certain consumer groups, in particular for full-time workers from communities with fewer than 100,000 residents. Less suited are car drivers in large cities as they do not usually drive sufficient distances for an electric car to pay off, often do not have access to their own private parking and the majority only own one vehicle. Housewives/househusbands and pensioners comprise other groups not considered to be suitable as the first users of electric vehicles from a purely economic perspective.     

Design von Informationsfeedback in Regelenergiemärkten

Information feedback is a much debated issue on balancing power markets: which information on past auctions should be published and when? The article analyzes advantages and disadvantages of different feedback policies applied to the example of the Swiss balancing power market. Our main conclusion is that the publication of the marginal bid is usually recommendable. This is often not the case for additional information (e.g. extramarginal bids). However, the answer depends on the specific market design and the market structure.     

Suffizienzorientierte Geschäftsmodelle am Beispiel von Stromspeichern

Business models are essential tools for understanding and creating the logic of a company’s business including all relevant stakeholders’ activities. Despite the knowledge of the organic-systematic interdependencies from companies with other stakeholders, business models of the energy economy primarily aim to transfer their value propositions via revenue streams into economical value. This article provides solutions for theoretical and practical extensions of business models for energy storaging to ensure they are sustainable in the future. Sufficiency-oriented energy storage business models are described as a sustainable framework.     

Die Berücksichtigung von Spitzenkappung in der Anreizregulierung

The model of temporary disconnection of renewable energy in case of high energy injection and low demand is thought to be an effective method for reducing investments in electricity networks. However, plant owners need to be reimbursed for foregone sales. According to the currently discussed draft of the Amendment of the German Incentive Regulation Ordinance, these costs can be rolled over to the consumer on a yearly basis, but are part of the cost benchmark with their base year values. This paper shows that this model sets incentives for optimal investments in electricity networks, but violates the participation constraint: Net operators will be exposed to a severe risk of worsening their position in the cost benchmark. In expectation, they will generate losses and investors have no incentive to invest in electricity networks. This problem can be solved by allowing net operators to roll over costs to customers, while considering average reimbursement fees in the cost benchmark.     

Einfluss von HGÜ-Verbindungen auf Markt und Netz

Studies assume that the political subsidization of renewable energies throughout Europe will increase the amount of congestions in the European transmission grid. In current discussions HVDC reinforcement measures are seen as one means to provide further transmission capacities and to ensure a reliable operation of the system. In an effort to contribute to these discussions the publication evaluates the effect of various HVDC reinforcement measures on the grid and the market. The assessment of these reinforcement measures is based on a macroeconomic approach which considers three major cost terms. The first term represents the electricity generation costs. HVDC reinforcement measures influence this cost term as market zones with different generation costs can be coupled and overall generation costs thus might sink. The second cost term is orientated on the necessary redispatch effort to guarantee a secure and reliable operation of the grid. The third cost term represents the investment costs of the HVDC reinforcement measures. The sum of all these cost terms is regarded as a means to compare different reinforcement measures. The study shows that the effect of all examined reinforcement measures on the transmission grid is comparable. Structural congestions in the grid which exist already without any HVDC reinforcement are not influenced significantly by the examined HVDC links. Of all considered reinforcement measures a link from Germany to Norway exhibits the highest influence on the market. This link also offers the highest benefit regarding market and grid as a whole.     

Ökonomische Bewertung des Repowering von Onshore-Windenergieanlagen in Deutschland

Wind power takes a leading role among the renewable energy sources. Whereas in offshore wind power utilization large technical challenges still need to be tackled for commercial exploitation, the replacement of obsolete plants (repowering) in the onshore sector provides an interesting alternative. This paper first provides an overview of the technical, legal and social development concerning wind power utilization in general, and repowering in particular, in Germany. In a next step, by means of model-based analysis, the technical potential for wind power by means of repowering is determined. The theoretical potential is valuated against social aspects. Due to the large heterogeneity of candidate sites for repowering, general potential studies are not suitable for concrete investment decisions. Instead, a detailed economic feasibility study is required. In our study, we performed scenario analysis, also taking into account the repowering-specific risks. The parameter values varied are those for the quality of the site, the size of the wind park, and the age of the wind turbines to be replaced. Finally, we discuss the results and provide an outlook on the development of repowering in light of the novelized EEG. We find that, until now, the repowering potential could not be fully exploited. An intensified realization of repowering projects in the coming years can be expected, due to the technical potential, simplifications in the commissioning process, rising acceptance on the side of the communities due to changes in the tax legislation and, above all, thanks to the incentives for almost all onshore wind parks.     

Die Bestimmung von individuellen Effizienzvorgaben — Alternativen zum Best-of-Four-Verfahren

The setting of the individual X-factor is a core element of every incentive regulation system. The problem faced by the regulator is the choice among a wide variety of methods for setting the individual efficiency objectives. So far no single method could achieve acceptance as best-practice in both scientific research and regulatory practice. The German incentive regulation, which started in January 2009, uses the so called “Best-of-Four Method” to define individual X-factors. The regulator, the Bundesnetzagentur, announced an in-depth evaluation of this method, because it potentially leads to an unacceptable downward bias in setting the individual efficiency objectives. This article illustrates the problems of the Best-of-Four Method and offers alternatives. The author additionally develops a new approach which is based on a multi-stage process, using economical and engineering methods. Finally all alternatives are compared according to various criteria.It can be shown that the complementary usage of Data Envelopment Analysis and Stochastic Frontier Analysis is a reasonable approach to efficiency analysis. But this raises the question how to transform the resulting efficiency scores into individual X-factors. The Best-of-Four Approach is not appropriate because it distorts the X-factors, offers possibilities for strategic behaviour and cannot guarantee comparability of the efficiency objectives. Comparing alternatives shows that no approach clearly dominates all others taking into account all considered criteria. The multi-stage approach offers a possibility of transforming a “Nordic Walking” into an ambitious fitness program while also setting appropriate and comparable individual X-factors.     

Induktives Laden von Elektromobilen – Eine techno-ökonomische Bewertung

Conductive (wired) charging, where the user has to plug or unplug a cable, dominates the concepts discussed for electric vehicles up to now. Apart from the reduced range of the electric vehicle, frequent charging and especially short charging times make this plugging and unplugging appear impractical. In contrast, inductive (wireless) energy transfer makes it possible to charge without user intervention. This article attempts to answer questions on whether inductive energy transfer can already be used to charge electric vehicles and where this represents an economically attractive solution for users. To do so, first the charging technologies are presented and contrasted. It is also possible to compare the two charging technologies economically based on a cost analysis. It can be shown that no widespread use of the inductive technology is to be expected for the time being from an economic point of view due to its significant extra costs. Under certain conditions, however, there is a limited field of application as a niche technology in certain commercial areas, such as taxis, for example.     

Verlustwärme von Offshore-Gleichstrom-Seekabelsystemen – Entstehung und Übertragung

In Germany heat dissipation of subsea cables for power transmission from offshore wind farms into the sea floor is regulated. The precautionary value to be adhered to is a maximum temperature increase of 2?K in 20 to 30?cm sea bed depth. Such a temperature increase is defined by a number of influencing factors and boundary conditions and is extremely difficult to physically measure. Thus the purpose of this paper is to simulate the heat generation of DC submarine cables and the dissipation into the surrounding sea floor using the Finite Element Method (FEM). Herewith crucial parameters and influencing factors can be identified. The results show that the strongest influencing factors on the sediment temperature in 20 to 30?cm sea floor depth are the average load or longer-term preload of the cable, the burial depth and the thermal resistance of the sediment. Overall, during standard operation of wind farms and the corresponding cable systems the 2?K limit is adhered to safely. In general, this also applies to special wind and load situations.     

Elektroautos in einer von erneuerbaren Energien geprägten Energiewirtschaft

The German Federal Government wants to establish Germany as a leading market for electric mobility. Potential environmental benefits and changes in the economic framework conditions of the energy sector are described in this paper. In order to quantify the electricity split which is actually used for charging electric vehicles, two economic models for the energy sector, a model for the market penetration of electric vehicles, a vehicle model and an LCA model are brought together. Based on an assumed dynamic increase of electric vehicles to 12 million in 2030, an additional electricity demand of about 18 TWh is calculated. If the vehicles are charged directly after their last daily trip, the peak load increases by 12%—despite the small increase in electricity demand. First model calculations for the development of the European power generation system show that the direct impact on the construction of new power plants remains low even until 2030. An impact of electric mobility on CO₂ certificate prices can only be seen from 2025 onwards and is limited to an increase in certificate prices by a maximum of 8 % in 2030. An optimisation is possible with intelligent charging strategies: The peak load without demand side management can be reduced by 5 GW and about 600 GWh of additional wind energy can used which would otherwise have been throttled due to feed-in management—about 3.5 % of the total electricity demand of electric vehicles. On the other hand, demand side management leads to more coal power plants instead of gas power plants being used to meet the additional electricity demand. If additional renewable sources are installed along with demand side management, the electricity for electric vehicles is almost carbon free. This is also reflected in the life cycle balance of electric vehicles which also includes vehicle and battery production: With today’s average electricity split in Germany, the greenhouse gas emissions of electric vehicles are about comparable to vehicles with conventional combustion engines. However, the electricity split in 2030 or the use of additional renewable energy sources lead to a significant advantage in the greenhouse gas balance.     

Smart Meter-Angebote: Eine empirische Untersuchung von Kundenpräferenzen

The implementation of smart meters in German households by 2032 is a major step in the transition towards an intelligent and connected energy system. Despite of federal legislation providing a structured plan for the nationwide smart meter rollout including basic product requirements, actors within the energy market have the opportunity to take an active part in shaping the market through appealing product offers and hence to create competitive advantage. This study identifies relevant features of smart meters from literature und business practice, and measures customer’s preferences for these features. Results indicate predominantly positive customer evaluations of smart meter features, amongst which the availability of consumption data, the installation price and rental charges as well as time variable tariffs contribute most to overall utility of smart meters. Finally, findings suggest targeting customers by defining strategies to address privacy concerns, to educate about saving potentials as well as to create differentiated pricing schemes.     

Eigenerzeugung und Selbstverbrauch von Strom – Stand,Potentiale und Trends

Due to falling costs of self-production, increasing end-user electricity prices as well as indirect state incentives, self-production and consumption of electricity have become more and more attractive for end-users across all economic sectors. Thus, opportunities to evade taxes, surcharges and grid charges have arisen under the current legal framework. The situation is complicated by unclear requirements for the utilisation of state incentives as well as the vague statistical coverage of self-consumption. Historically, the total amount of self-consumption rose by 26?% between 2008 and 2012 to 56.7 TWh. The estimation of economic potentials and trends shows that development could accelerate substantially to a point where a considerable amount of the consumption in all sectors could be covered by self-production. This development will be significantly determined by the future legal framework regarding taxation and surcharges for self-consumption. Besides the level of taxes and surcharges, the minimum limit for charging small generation units will be a key control variable. From an economical point of view, derogations lead to distorted competition between various technologies that causes inefficient production structures and distributional effects. Moreover, they create a self-reinforcing effect: The higher the self-consumption is, the lower the assessment base for apportionments and charges becomes, and the higher the cost burden for the remaining end-users will be. As a result, the incentives for self-consumption are enhanced and, once again, the increased self-consumption causes further economic inefficiencies.     

Portfoliomanagement: Optimale Energiebeschaffung unter Berücksichtigung von Risiken

In the past, Energy Utility Companies (EUC) in Germany bought their electricity demand with a strategy that used planned sales volumes as control factor for procurement. However, this approach has the disadvantage that the open position defined as the difference between electricity sold to the customer and electricity bought at the wholesale market is not monitored. Thus, the price risk is measured incorrectly. To avoid these unnecessary risks, we propose that optimal portfolio management in liberalised energy markets should constantly monitor electricity sales volumes and electricity bought. This approach has the advantage that the open position and thus the price risk can be computed continuously and can thus be managed and monitored. However, higher data requirements have to be fulfilled when this strategy is applied. Nonetheless, the process is manageable with modern IT-systems. The main ideas in this paper can be transferred to the gas market.     

Investitionsanreize unter RPI-X-Regulierung und die angemessene Höhe von Kostendurchreichungen

In the classic view, the fundamental decision between a rate-of-return and price-cap regime depends upon the aim of regulatory action: a rate-of-return is considered to more likely induce infrastructure investment while a price-cap regime is expected to increase managerial effort in reducing costs. While an asset-based regulation may lead to the unwanted Averch-Johnson effect, efficiency-oriented regulation such as RPI-X may decrease the company’s incentive to invest. To avoid this behaviour, RPI-X-regimes do often exempt certain costs from regulation, e.g. by allowing for pass-throughs for capital expenditures. Starting with the finding that efficiency-based regulation may lead to postponement or abandonment of investment projects in a real options based model, a fair rate of capital cost pass through is derived to mitigate the negative effects on investment projects. This ‘regulation-adjusted’ cost-pass-through depends on the regulatory X the regulator imposes on the regulated industry. Given the valuation of the investment project and the efficiency-value, a cost-pass-through can be calculated which is less or equal than the risk free interest rate as long as the pass-through itself is risk-free.     

Dezentrale Steuerung eines Pools von Wärmepumpen auf Basis spieltheoretischer Methoden

An intelligent coupling of the power and the heat sector offers huge possibilities for the integration of electric energy from fluctuating, renewable energies. In this regard heat pumps depict a highly efficient way of power-heat-coupling. However, for a pool of heat pumps this potential can only be exploited effectively with a suitable control methodology. Such a control methodology makes it possible to enforce – depending on the specific case of application – a system-compatible behavior of the pool of heat pumps. In this respect a decentralized control approach offers a higher scalability compared with a centralized control approach. Thus a decentralized control approach based on game-theoretic methods is developed and presented here. For this purpose three game-theoretic optimization algorithms are examined. Their performance is analyzed and evaluated for two specific cases of application (reduction of peak load and tracking of a predefined load profile) by means of simulation. The results of both case studies illustrate, that game-theoretic control is easily applicable and can effectively be used to control a pool of heat pumps. Furthermore the developed control methodology can principally be adapted and utilized for all other electric loads with inherent storage functionality.     

Dynamische Berechnung der Stromgestehungskosten von Energiespeichern für die Energiesystemmodellierung und -einsatzplanung

Due to the transition in energy supply from fossil to renewable energy sources, energy storage systems are getting more and more important for the security of power supply. Therefore also the modeling of those storage systems in energy system modeling needs to be further discussed. This paper focuses on the levelized costs of energy storage. In the beginning, the existing approaches of calculating those costs are analyzed in a literature review. It will be shown that all of the approaches calculate the levelized costs on the basis of the energy storages’ lifetime. For the usage in energy system modeling it is mandatory that the calculation can be done for variable and shorter time periods. Therefore this work’s approach calculates the costs based on the time of operation in any period chosen. Additionally, the model can be used for any type of storage system. After introducing the mathematical model, the levelized costs of energy storage will be calculated to illustrate the models properties and then verified with reference load profiles for five different energy storage types. Following this, particular input parameters are varied and sensitivities are pointed out. Most of the programs for power plant dispatch calculations use linear or mixed integer linear programing algorithms. As the calculation of levelized costs of electricity is non-linear, most programs use fixed values during the whole time of simulation. In this article the integration of the presented approach into a linear optimization program via recursive and shifted calculation is elaborated. Results are presented and discussed.     

Bedeutung von CO2-Transport- und Speicheroptionen im europäischen Energiesystem

Aiming the stabilisation of the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere at 450 ppm, a strong climate policy in the EU-27 will be required. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and the building up of a CO₂ pipeline system will be one option to avoid climate change. The analysis of the potential CO₂ storage options in Europe shows a huge potential in the North Sea and their neighbouring countries and only less potentials in the southern European countries. A scenario analysis using the European energy system model TIMES PanEU shows that the installation of CO₂ transport pipelines for cross boarder exchange of CO₂ from power plants located next to the boarder could be one possible infrastructure solution. This solution is a cost efficient option which will be used mainly by the North Sea neighbouring countries (Germany, UK, the Netherlands, Denmark) and Poland. A central pipeline grid in the North Sea for the usage of huge storage options like the Utsira formation will be important in the future for countries with limited CO₂ storage capacities (like Belgium or the Netherlands). If cheap storage options like onshore Aquifers are not available, the design of central CO₂ pipeline grids has a strong impact on the power plant structure, the electricity and CO₂ certificate price. Based on a limited availability of onshore CO₂ storages the electricity price will increase by up to 16 € 2007/MWh and the CO₂-certificate price will rise by additional 35 € 2007/t CO₂ in 2050.     

Vergleichende Analyse der technisch-wirtschaftlichen Bedingungen von PV-Anlagen Mit Süd- und Ost-West-Ausrichtung

PV power plants with east-west-orientation have a lower energy production per installed kW_p due to their orientation than those facing to south. Thus they need a reduction of costs to compensate the lack of energy production and to have the same cost effectiveness as PV plants with south-orientation. This paper tries to show, how and if PV plants with east-west-orientation can be more profitable than PV plants with south-orientation. Therefore, the energy production was simulated for PV plants with an orientation to east-west and to south with different inclinations in a place with high irradiation (Freiburg) and a place with low irradiation (Hamburg). A calculation of profitability was made for each PV plant including energy production as well as ascertained costs. This are the main outcomes:

The profitability of PV plants with east-west-orientation is not better than the profitability of PV plants with south-orientation.

The profitability of PV plants with east-west-orientation is better than the one of PV plants with south-orientation when the costs of mounting systems are much lower for east-west mounting-systems than for mounting-systems with south-orientation and the costs of grid-connection and rent are high too.

The profitability of PV plants with east-west-orientation is higher in regions with low irradiation.

     

Bereitstellung von Regelleistung durch Elektrofahrzeuge: Modellrechnungen für Deutschland im Jahr 2035

The German government has set ambitious goals for both the expansion of renewable energy supply and electromobility. According to its Energiewende policy, electricity supply from fluctuating renewables is supposed to further increase considerably. This will tend to require a greater provision of balancing reserves. At the same time, supply from conventional dispatchable plants, which used to provide the bulk of reserves, will decrease. Against this background, this article analyzes the scope for an assumed fleet of 4.4 million electric vehicles to supply balancing reserves in 2035. Examining two different future power plant scenarios, it explores the potentials of reserve provision with and without the option of feeding electricity from vehicle batteries back to the grid. Results from an extended open-source power system simulation model show that the assumed vehicle fleet can efficiently provide a substantial share of reserve requirements, also in case the vehicle-to-grid option is not available. Arbitrage on wholesale markets, on the other hand, is negligible under basic assumptions. Likewise, total system cost savings are minor when compared to a pure cost-optimal loading of vehicle batteries. Under alternative assumptions on the future power plant portfolio as well as on battery degradation costs, however, wholesale arbitrage, reserve provision, and system cost savings can be substantial.