Auswirkungen der europäischen Energiepolitik auf den deutschen Atomausstieg

After the election of the new German government on September 27th, 2009, the nuclear power phase-out decision appears back on top of the political agenda. Hence, an up to date survey of all relevant arguments seems absolutely necessary. In that matter, the scope should not remain national but should also take the European dimension into account.On the European level, a position in favour of nuclear power becomes apparent. Recent political decisions among the 27 member states show a renaissance of atomic energy. EU-Parliament, EU-Commission and EU-Council have all voted for the extensive, long term use of nuclear power in Europe. With its phase-out decision still valid, Germany is part of a minority in Europe.Germany is part of a European market for electricity whose national barriers will blur more and more in the future to form a fully integrated pan-European market in the end. Since nuclear power will provide a major share of the European electricity generation mix, Germany will always be supplied with atomic energy in the long term. This is imperative, regardless of nuclear power plants operating within the borders of Germany or not. Shutting down these facilities in Germany will hence not make the risks associated with atomic energy disappear. It will only add energy-technical challenges to assure long-term supply security. Thus, the new German government should withdraw the phase-out decision.     

Bedeutung von CO2-Transport- und Speicheroptionen im europäischen Energiesystem

Aiming the stabilisation of the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere at 450 ppm, a strong climate policy in the EU-27 will be required. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and the building up of a CO₂ pipeline system will be one option to avoid climate change. The analysis of the potential CO₂ storage options in Europe shows a huge potential in the North Sea and their neighbouring countries and only less potentials in the southern European countries. A scenario analysis using the European energy system model TIMES PanEU shows that the installation of CO₂ transport pipelines for cross boarder exchange of CO₂ from power plants located next to the boarder could be one possible infrastructure solution. This solution is a cost efficient option which will be used mainly by the North Sea neighbouring countries (Germany, UK, the Netherlands, Denmark) and Poland. A central pipeline grid in the North Sea for the usage of huge storage options like the Utsira formation will be important in the future for countries with limited CO₂ storage capacities (like Belgium or the Netherlands). If cheap storage options like onshore Aquifers are not available, the design of central CO₂ pipeline grids has a strong impact on the power plant structure, the electricity and CO₂ certificate price. Based on a limited availability of onshore CO₂ storages the electricity price will increase by up to 16 € 2007/MWh and the CO₂-certificate price will rise by additional 35 € 2007/t CO₂ in 2050.     

„Collaborative Governance“ – ein neues Konzept für die Regulierung der europäischen Strom- und Gasmärkte?

Current British and American publications about the liberalization of electricity and gas markets demand a paradigm shift in the regulation of energy networks. These publications can be subsumed under the scientific debate about “collaborative governance” in the USA. They call for an integration of network users and consumers into the regulatory process. Their philosophy resembles the philosophy of the negotiated third party access in Germany from 1998 till 2005. Their regulatory strategy might be more effective than the actual European “command and control” strategy in establishing competitive energy markets. This article examines and evaluates these publications and their regulatory strategy.     

Ver?nderungen in der europ?ischen Finanzmarktregulierung k?nnten zur Anwendung der Basler Eigenkapitalrichtlinien auf den Energiehandel f��hren

In its consultation paper regarding the revision of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) from December 2010, the European Commission is considering to remove the current exemption for energy and commodity trading companies fully or at least to narrow the exemptions down. In this case the regulatory framework which is currently only in place for banks and financial companies could become effective for those companies. Because of the potentially significant consequences, it is reasonable for energy companies which have trading activities, to reflect the potential requirements even today. This article discusses the potential changes in the regulation and describes the consequences as well as potential areas of challenges in the application of banking regulation in energy trading.     

Multikriterielles Entscheidungsmodell für Anpassungsmaßnahmen am Beispiel der L/H-Gas-Umstellung in Deutschland

The German gas supply system is separated into two networks: one for high-calorific gas (H-gas) and one for low-calorific gas (L-gas). In particular, the L-gas volume is declining significantly, which means that there will be problems in security of supply in near future. This paper highlights the most important aspects that have to be considered when adjusting the German gas network to the future decline of L-gas production. First, the article discusses different possible adjustment options: (1) adjustment of market areas from low-calorific gas supply to high-calorific gas supply, (2) blending facilities (conversion of high calorific gas using nitrogen or air) and (3) the combination of both options. Subsequently, the authors outline the necessary planning process that must precede any adjustment option. The so-called network differentiation is followed by the network modeling: Using the net present value method and taking into account certain constraints, the authors define a simple optimization problem to determine the most economical investment and adjustment times for each option. Based on first model considerations it can be concluded that the implementation of adjustment options should be delayed as long as possible without compromising the security of supply. Nevertheless, an early start of the planning process is mandatory to ensure that adjustment options can be established in due time before an L-gas supply deficit occurs. The question, which adjustment option should be chosen, cannot be answered universally. It depends on the conditions and structure of the network as well as the structure of the final consumers.     

Elektroautos in einer von erneuerbaren Energien geprägten Energiewirtschaft

The German Federal Government wants to establish Germany as a leading market for electric mobility. Potential environmental benefits and changes in the economic framework conditions of the energy sector are described in this paper. In order to quantify the electricity split which is actually used for charging electric vehicles, two economic models for the energy sector, a model for the market penetration of electric vehicles, a vehicle model and an LCA model are brought together. Based on an assumed dynamic increase of electric vehicles to 12 million in 2030, an additional electricity demand of about 18 TWh is calculated. If the vehicles are charged directly after their last daily trip, the peak load increases by 12%—despite the small increase in electricity demand. First model calculations for the development of the European power generation system show that the direct impact on the construction of new power plants remains low even until 2030. An impact of electric mobility on CO₂ certificate prices can only be seen from 2025 onwards and is limited to an increase in certificate prices by a maximum of 8 % in 2030. An optimisation is possible with intelligent charging strategies: The peak load without demand side management can be reduced by 5 GW and about 600 GWh of additional wind energy can used which would otherwise have been throttled due to feed-in management—about 3.5 % of the total electricity demand of electric vehicles. On the other hand, demand side management leads to more coal power plants instead of gas power plants being used to meet the additional electricity demand. If additional renewable sources are installed along with demand side management, the electricity for electric vehicles is almost carbon free. This is also reflected in the life cycle balance of electric vehicles which also includes vehicle and battery production: With today’s average electricity split in Germany, the greenhouse gas emissions of electric vehicles are about comparable to vehicles with conventional combustion engines. However, the electricity split in 2030 or the use of additional renewable energy sources lead to a significant advantage in the greenhouse gas balance.     

Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Photovoltaik im deutschen Energiemix – Neudefinition des Ansatzes der Netzparität

Photovoltaics are one of the fastest growing energy sources in the world. Despite high costs and a limited energy yield, attractive support schemes particularly the German renewable energy law have paved the way for the strong market growth of this technology within the last decade. Here the question arises as to when photovoltaics will reach a competitive level in Germany without the support of subsidies. The prominent grid parity approach is simple and considered critical in this discussion. It is critical because of the different references regarding the costs of electricity generated by a newly installed PV system and the electricity price of private households, which consists of electricity generation, distribution, sales as well as taxes and duties on the one hand. On the other hand, there are different time references in the calculation of electricity generation costs and electricity prices of private households. Transferring the approach of Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE) to all power generation plants within the energy mix means a redefinition of the grid parity of photovoltaics will be carried out. Here the electricity generation costs of photovoltaics as well as the energy mix will be calculated in the same way. The LCOE calculation refers to the whole life cycle of every power generation plant. That is why a balance between the high investment costs of photovoltaics and the increasing operation costs of fossil fuelled power plants is made. It can be shown that the reaching of competitiveness of photovoltaics in Germany depends on structural changes in electricity generation and it is to be realized within the anticipated time frame until the year 2020.     

Betriebsoptimierung großtechnischer Kälteversorgungsverbunde bei limitierter Datengrundlage

Energy in the form of cold is required by many commercial and industrial companies in Germany. The demand ranges from space cooling to food refrigeration up to applications with very specific requirements, as it is the case with medical devices. From a certain size of the company, the cooling supply usually takes place in a central refrigeration network fed by several cooling units. The operation of several cooling units allows the individual systems to be controlled in such a way that they operate within the optimum range of operating. In practice, the primary goal is often only to cover the required cooling demand to ensure the underlying processes, so that there is a high potential for operational optimization. Existing models usually require lots of measurement points or historical data to model the efficiency behavior of cooling machines. Therefore, a methodological approach is presented in this work, which, on the one hand, models the efficiency profile of cooling units as a function of the ambient temperature and the utilization, and on the other hand, an energetically optimized schedule for the cooling units can be assessed underlying a limited data basis. The developed approach is subsequently applied to a specific application and validated.     

Abschätzung des Erlöspotentials aus der Leistungsvorhaltung am Schweizer Tertiärregelmarkt

The analysis attempts to estimate the revenue potential from the provision of tertiary reserve capacity in the Swiss electricity control area based on publicly available data on historic tenders (June 2010–December 2013). A series of bidding strategies is defined for this purpose and backtested over the available time frame. We compare deterministic strategies derived from the observed price distribution of the previous day or week on the one hand with a model-based strategy on the other hand. The latter is implemented as a random forest regression model that takes into account, amongst other factors, the fill level of reservoir lakes in Switzerland. The results suggest that the model-based strategy be favoured over the deterministic strategies as it captures a higher amount of potential revenues and, most importantly, as it is more efficient. With the simplifying assumption that only a relatively small reserve capacity is offered and thus the results of the historic tenders are not affected, we get an average revenue potential of between 6 and 8 CHF/MW/h for negative tertiary reserve capacity and between 3 and 4 CHF/MW/h for positive tertiary reserve capacity.     

Abschätzung des Potenzials der Schweizer Speicherseen zur Lastdeckung bei Importrestriktionen

Switzerland possesses with its hydro reservoirs a considerable amount of energy storage capacity. One would therefore assume that the country is well protected against power shortage situations in continental Europe. In the last two winters, however, authorities and system operators warned of possible threats to security of supply. Power producers were accused in the media of emptying the lakes too early for the sake of short-term profits. Politicians suggested to use the reservoir lakes as strategic reserves for the potential case of import restrictions. The current piece of work simulates the aggregated storage production in Switzerland based on publicly available data under various assumptions on the availability of power plants and imports. It comes to the conclusion that, over the last few years, the energy reserves in Swiss reservoir lakes would have been sufficient to cover domestic electricity demand in the absence of imports for at least one month. However, considerable changes in the use of hydro storage facilities would be necessary in future to ensure the same level of protection when nuclear production is phased out. The economic loss due to such an intervention may quickly rise to several dozen million Swiss francs.     

Klimawandel: Wahrnehmung und Einschätzungen der deutschen Haushalte im Herbst 2012

This article presents results that are obtained from a survey among private households in Germany, which took place in the fall of 2012. A key result is that in comparison with a range of other global challenges, respondents are less concerned with fighting climate change, a remarkable outcome given that the share of climate change skeptics in the survey is likely to be lower than in the population owing to selfselection problems. This article addresses such self-selection problems, as well as other shortcomings of surveys, and provides for a discussion on how to cope with them.     

Prognose der Day-Ahead Wind- und Photovoltaikstromerzeugung – Einflussgrößen und Zuverlässigkeit

In the future, the percentage of renewable energies in the electricity generation is expected to increase continuously. Especially weather-dependent wind and solar power plays a substantial role. These energy sources are partly characterized by a fluctuating and imprecisely predictable power generation. To cover the residual load and to balance the forecast errors a rising number of flexible producers and consumers will be needed in the future. This is necessary to ensure the high security of supply of the German electricity grid.Against this background, the objective of the following investigation is to analyse the day-ahead forecasting quality of the feed-in from wind and photovoltaic systems in the control areas of Germany’s transmission system operators and in the entire area of Germany for the years 2010 to 15. The aim of this analysis is to identify the crucial parameters that influence the forecast error. Subsequently, the share of the wind and photovoltaic power forecast which can be considered as reliably predictable for the following day is estimated. In addition, the increase in this reliable prediction through a higher level of detail in the assessment of the forecast error is quantified. Based on these results, the need of flexibilities through the weather-dependent electricity supply from wind and photovoltaic systems can be estimated, and the impact on the electricity system can be evaluated.     

Optimierte Integration der Elektromobilität in das Stromversorgungssystem bei hohen Anteilen erneuerbarer Energien

Electric mobility will play a key role for the transformation of the energy supply in Germany [the “Energiewende”]. A successful market development of plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles and a full fleet penetration in the long-term are the most efficient and effective measure for integrating large amounts of renewable energy into the transport sector and for reaching the efficiency targets. These new electricity consumers in the supply system will cause additional electricity loads strongly dependent on the mobility needs of the vehicle users. A controlled battery charging is able to avoid new peak demands and to increase the efficiency of the power generation system by using excess power. By scenario analysis, the German Aerospace Center (DLR) in cooperation with the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE) and the Institute for High Voltage Technology of the RWTH Aachen investigated a possible successful development path of electric mobility in Germany and its integration into and interaction with the future power supply system. From both perspectives—the one of the total supply system as well as the other of local distribution grids—the results show promising potentials but also limits.     

Ökonomische Chancen der deutschen Industrie resultierend aus einer weltweiten Verbreitung von CSP (Concentrated Solar Power)-Technologien

Numerous energy scenarios consider concentrated solar power (CSP) technologies as an important option for mitigating global CO2 emissions. A global deployment of CSP technologies would generate significant economic opportunities for German CSP technology providers. The presented paper analyses potential economic benefits resulting from a global ramp up of CSP until 2050 based on scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Greenpeace International. The analysis focuses on the economic opportunities of German technology providers which are among the leading international CSP market players.     

Und Aktion! – Konzeptualisierung der Rolle individuellen Akteurshandelns in sozio-technischen Transitionen am Beispiel der regionalen Energiewende im bayerischen Allgäu

The German “Energiewende” is one of the most ambitious societal transition projects in recent times. It causes fundamental political and economic changes in the energy system in Germany and the whole of Europe. These great societal and technological changes of the current energy regime are of particular interest for research on sustainability transitions. In this research strand, however, the role of individual agency for socio-technical transitions is hardly considered. What drives actors who decisively pushed the regional energy transition? Which strategies and types of action do they choose to foster the transition? How do individual strategies and actions depend on the socio-technical system environment and how does the socio-technical system environment react to the individual actions? To analyse these questions, we apply the Human-Environment Systems (HES) Framework (Scholz, 2011) for the first time to socio-technical systems. Based on an exemplary analysis of the regional energy transition in the Allgäu region in Germany, we propose an adaptation of the HES Framework for socio-technical systems. Finally, we reflect on how the adapted HES framework for socio-technical systems can contribute to a better understanding of individual agency in systemic transitions.     

Monetäre Anreize zur Steuerung der Ladelast von Elektrofahrzeugen – eine modellgestützte Optimierung

Electric mobility is supposed to contribute to climate policy targets by reducing CO₂-emissions in the transportation sector. Increasing penetration rates of electric vehicles (EV) can lead to new challenges in the electricity sector, especially with regard to local distribution networks. Thus the management of charging loads is discussed as a key issue in energy economics. Due to their long parking times, high electricity and power demand, EV seem to be predestined for load management. Monetary incentives as dynamic pricing can be suitable for that: They reflect the current supply situation, pass the information to the consumers and can thus lead to a corresponding charging behaviour. In this article we analyse this interaction between dynamic pricing and charging loads. For this reason we have developed the optimization model DS-Opt+. It models a total number of 4,000 households in two residential areas of a major city with regard to its electricity demand, its mobility behaviour and its equipment of photovoltaic systems. Four different pricing models are tested for their effects on charging behaviour and thus the total load of the residential area. The results illustrate that only fairly high penetration rates of EV lead to remarkably higher electricity demand and require some load management. The tested dynamic pricing models are suitable for influencing charging loads; load-based tariffs are best in achieving a balanced load curve. In our analysis uncontrolled charging strategies are superior regarding a balanced load curve than controlled strategies by time-varying tariffs. Our results lead to several implications relevant for the energy industry and further research.     

Beitrag von technologischen und strukturellen Veränderungen im Energiesystem der EU-27 zur Erreichung ambitionierter Klimaschutzziele

To stabilise the concentration of GHG (Greenhouse gases) in the atmosphere to a level of 450ppm (parts per million), a strong climate policy in the EU-27 will be required. The target is achievable through a 71% reduction of GHG emissions from 1990 emission levels by the year 2050. With the regionalised Pan-European TIMES energy system model, the role of technologies with regard to efficiency improvement, fuel switching and energy saving measures will be analysed under such an emission reduction target. The Pan-European TIMES model illustrates in detail the whole energy system of the different member states of the EU-27 plus Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. The limited resource and import potentials of different energy carriers, the competition of the use of energy carriers among different sectors and the country specific differences in energy demand will be taken into account. The results show that the energy consumption of the EU is influenced rather by political targets and positions related to climate protection, security of supply and the use of nuclear energy than by the available technological options. Under a climate protection scenario with restricted use of nuclear energy, the most commonly used options are to increase the use of renewable energy in all sectors, produce electricity in combination with carbon capture and storage (CCS) and to increase the use of electricity over other fuel sources in the demand sectors. Furthermore, technological improvements will be required throughout the entire energy system if political targets are to be successfully realised.