Price convergence across regions in India

The paper attempts to examine whether there is price convergence across various regions in India. Using panel unit root tests that are robust to cross-sectional dependence, it is found that relative price levels among various regions in India are mean-reverting. Further, we decompose each series into a set of common factors and idiosyncratic components. The decomposition enables us to test stationarity and estimate half-lives of the common factors and the idiosyncratic components separately. Both these components are found to be stationary. Idiosyncratic price shocks, however, are found to be more persistent as compared to the common factor. Results also indicate that transportation cost proxied by distance can explain a part of the variation in prices between two locations in India. The authors would like to thank Dibyendu Bhaumik for arranging the data for this study. Views expresed in the paper are personal and do not reflect the views of the organizations.     

国内外铜期货市场的价格联系

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the time varying relationships between the Chinese copper futures market and its London counterparts. Rolling correlation and rolling Granger causality test show that with the development of the Shanghai copper futures markets, it has stronger connections with its London counterpart and it plays more and more important role in the price discovery process. There is a long run relationship between the Shanghai futures exchanges (SHFE) and London Metals exchanges (LME) copper futures prices. The influence of LME on SHFE is greater than that of SHFE on LME. The research will shed light on the openness of the Chinese copper commodity markets and on the nature of cross-market information transmission.      

不确定性世界的企业领导

我们存在于一个动态变迁的世界之中,这决定了企业在决策时面临着大量的不确定性,企业要在这样的情况下获得持续生存,就必须认清环境演变的意义,建立一套具有适应性效率的制度结构,将不确定性融入到决策的制定过程中去。     

Measuring productivity in an imperfect world

Most measures of multifactor productivity (MFP) assume constant returns to scale and perfect competition. Using a general aggregate production function together with duality theory and allowing for the possibilities of disequilibrium, markups and economies of scale, the study derives a more generalized MFP measure. The model was used to assess the economic performance in US manufacturing for the 1949 to 1988 period. The results suggest that scale and markups have substantial power in explaining MFP growth for all periods and that half of the measured MFP growth (as measured within the conventional framework) comes from biases due to scale economies, market power, and interaction effects.     

Industrial policy in an imperfect world

We study industrial policy and its effectiveness in a model with both market and government failures. We introduce a public agency responsible for industrial policy into the model of Hausmann and Rodrik [Hausmann, R., Rodrik, D., 2003. Development as Self-Discovery. Journal of Development Economics 72, 603–633], and we assume that this agency has limited information and political motives. In an extension, we further allow entrepreneurs to engage in rent seeking activities. We find that industrial policies are ineffective if the public agency is poorly informed, but not necessarily so if it is highly politically motivated. Given a politically motivated public agency, industrial policies are effective if and only if the institutional setting ensures that such policies are modest, e.g. by restricting the agency's budget. Moreover, our model helps us to understand why the same industrial policies that have failed elsewhere have been relatively successful in South Korea and Taiwan.     

Price dynamics in an exchange economy

The pure exchange model is the foundation of the neoclassical theory of value, yet equilibrium predictions and price adjustment dynamics for this model remained untested prior to the experiment reported in this paper. With the exchange economy replicated several times, prices and allocations in most experiment sessions adjust toward the competitive equilibrium in continuous double auction trading, though adjustment is much slower than in previous commodity flow (or perishable good) double auction market experiments. Price adjustment is evaluated by comparing its extent within each market replication (or trading period) to its extent across trading periods. More price adjustment occurs within trading periods than across trading periods, so price adjustment data are evaluated with the disequilibrium Hahn process model (Hahn and Negishi in Econometrica 30:463–469, 1962) of within-period trades. This paper introduces a stochastic version the Hahn process model and demonstrates that a linear approximation to this stochastic model yields an autoregressive process with a near unit root when the adjustment rate is low. In effect, the autoregressive price adjustment model studied extensively by time series econometricians over the past 30 years can be viewed as a reduced form of a stochastic disequilibrium exchange economy price adjustment model. Estimation of the model demonstrates that price adjustment in the exchange economy experiment is considerably slower than in economies without income effects, which suggests that the price discovery process may be a significant factor in the slow adjustment documented by applied econometricians.     

Economic integration in an uneven world: an internationalist perspective

This paper discusses two progressive schools of thought that have evolved in response to international neoliberalism and the consequent competitive pressures in global markets emanating from the low-cost conditions obtained in many less developed countries. The paper identifies these as the ‘competitiveness-enhancing’ and the ‘competition-reducing’ approaches. The former is shown to be ill-suited to present circumstances of the global economy and, in any event, nationalist. The latter seeks to minimize the adverse consequences of international neoliberalism, and comprises proposals for expansive social charters and social tariffs. The paper provides a theoretical basis for this approach, and discusses the strengths and weaknesses of each of these proposals. The paper then develops and defends a new multilateral, rule-based trade proposal, called the ‘social index tariff structure’ (SITS), which would reward nations for high levels of development achieved relative to their economic means. Drawing on human development data from the Human Development Report (1993), a SITS-based trading scheme is developed for 77 countries. It is argued that a SITS regime would serve to protect the quality of life in developed countries while promoting human development in the less developed countries. The SITS proposal is assessed against Amartya Sen's ‘capabilities to achieve functionings’ approach to human development.     

Price manipulation in an experimental asset market

We analyze in the laboratory whether an uninformed trader is able to manipulate the price of a financial asset by comparing the results of two experimental treatments. In the benchmark treatment, 12 subjects trade a common value asset that takes either a high or a low value. Only three subjects know the actual value of the asset while the market is open for trading. The manipulation treatment is identical to the benchmark treatment apart from the fact that we introduce a computer program as an additional uninformed trader. This robot buys a fixed number of shares in the beginning of a trading period and sells them again afterwards. Our main result shows that the last contract price is significantly higher in the manipulation treatment if the asset takes a low value and that private information is very well disseminated by both markets if the value of the asset is high. Finally, even though this simple manipulation program loses money on average, it is profitable in some instances.     

Barriers to knowledge spillovers and regional convergence in an evolutionary model

This paper will present a multi-region/multi-country model in which inter-regional knowledge spillovers determine the growth of regions. Key parameters in the model are the learning capability of a region and the rate of knowledge generation (R&D). The intensity of spillovers depends on geographical distance between regions. The model is investigated by means of simulation techniques. What results is a core-periphery situation, the exact form of which depends on the assumed spatial structure. The impact of economic integration is investigated by introducing barriers-to-knowledge-spillovers in the model in the form of borders between countries. Contrary to the popular belief and some economic theories, we find that removing such spillover barriers may result in larger disparity of income levels between regions.     

Buyer Subsidies in an Equilibrium Model of Price Dispersion

Abstract. We present a model of equilibrium price dispersion in which a per-unit subsidy to buyers can reduce average prices. The reason is that subsidies have two effects on average prices that work in opposite directions. First, subsidies raise buyers' willingness-to-pay, and by itself this causes firms to charge higher prices. However, since a higher willingness-to-pay lowers the relative cost of search, subsidies also induce more search. This creates a second effect that puts pressure on firms to reduce prices. We show that the second effect can dominate, thus causing an overall reduction in average price.     

Demographic trends and international capital flows in an integrated world

This paper examines the impact of projected demographic trends on international capital flows. The analysis builds upon a ten-region overlapping generations' model of the world economy where capital is mobile across regions. Results show that, over the first half of the century, emerging regions will finance the demand of capital coming from the developed world where population aging is relatively advanced. In particular, the findings suggest that in the coming decades China will be the world's main creditor region. However, in the second half of the century, India will take over this leading position because of the predicted decline in the Chinese labor force. An additional analysis demonstrates that the economic consequences of demographic changes depend on the degree of capital market integration between regions.     

To outsource or not to outsource in an integrated world

This paper investigates outsourcing decision under certainty and uncertainty. When the production activity can be fragmented into two or more processes, an integrated firm must be competitive in each of the fragmented processes. There are gains from outsourcing when factor prices differ between countries. When factor prices are not equalized internationally, a firm may outsource the process which uses its scarce source intensively. If the cost of outsourcing is lower in the foreign country, full outsourcing occurs under certainty. However, even if the outside supplier has a cost advantage, uncertainty in outsourcing cost ensures that partial outsourcing is optimal for risk-averse firms.     

Price convergence of peripheral European countries on the way to the EMU: A time series approach

This paper examines price and inflation convergence between three European countries (Italy, Spain and the U.K.) and a European average and, alternatively, between them and Germany from the beginning of the 80's.  For this purpose the long-run stochastic relationships on prices derived from the convergence criteria agreed in the Maastricht Treaty are analyzed. In order to do this, some recent unit root tests have been applied as well as time-varying parameters models.  The results reject the long-run convergence hypothesis in all the cases but allow us to accept the existence of catching-up with the European average and Germany in some cases depending on the nature of the prices and on the countries considered. First version received: March 1997/final version received: May 1999     

On the emergence of an MFN club: equal treatment in an unequal world

Abstract .  Motivated by GATT, we endogenize the formation of a club whose members have to abide by the MFN principle of non-discrimination. The underlying model is that of oligopolistic intraindustry trade. While an MFN club does not alter average tariff levels across countries, it increases aggregate world welfare; makes non-members worse off; and can immiserize its high cost members. These results imply that (i) core WTO rules such as MFN are valuable even if multilateral negotiations deliver limited trade liberalization and (ii) the distributional effects of MFN maybe one reason why developing countries have been granted Special and Differential treatment at the WTO.     

Price dynamics in an input-output model: An alternative approach

The suggested approach is developed, on the basis of firms' markup behaviour, in terms of current prices making value coefficients change as the effects of the initial price rise spread through the economy.     

Endogenous currency formation in an online environment: The case of Diablo II

This paper presents a case study of the emergence of currency from a barter economy in an online game community. We use this case study to attempt to shed light on the relative importance of various types of frictions that lead to the emergence of money in search-theoretic models of currency formation. In particular, our study highlights the importance of exchange frictions relative to epistemic frictions. Using the records of an online message board dedicated to facilitating trades within the game, we document the emergence of currency and its stability over time.     

自然垄断产业定价机制探析--以电价机制为例

本文以自然垄断产业电力工业为例分析了电力价格现状，在电力企业行为特征基础上建立了成本监督博弈模型，分析了各博弈主体纳什均衡的行为选择和博弈未构成纳什均衡的原因，从制度建设角度提出了多维监督等治理对策，为建立有效的自然垄断产业定价机制进行了理论探索。     

Mental accounting and small windfalls: Evidence from an online grocer

We study the effect of small windfalls on consumer spending decisions by comparing the purchases online grocery customers make when redeeming $10-off coupons with the purchases they make without coupons. Controlling for customer fixed effects and other variables, we find that grocery spending increases by $1.59 when a $10-off coupon is redeemed. The extra spending associated with coupon redemption is focused on groceries that a customer does not typically buy. These results are consistent with the theory of mental accounting but are not consistent with the standard permanent income or lifecycle theory of consumption. While the hypotheses we test are motivated by mental accounting, we also discuss some alternative psychological explanations for our findings.