New evidence on price impact of analyst forecast revisions

Previous research shows a positive relationship between consensus forecast revisions and stock returns in developed markets. We obtain new evidence from four major Asia-Pacific markets that suggest that abnormal returns are related to latest forecast revisions. The price impact of negative revisions is consistently stronger than that of the positive revisions. We also found considerable differences in price impact between developed and emerging markets for positive revisions, while no such difference is detected for negative revisions. The latest forecast revisions and category of analysts (those working in international broking firms) appear to be two key determinants of abnormal stock returns.     

The impact of executive inside debt on sell-side financial analyst forecast characteristics

Debt-like compensation, referred to as inside debt, is prevalent in US firms and affects firm operating, investing and financial reporting activities. The amount of inside debt can be used to extract information that benefits analyst forecasting activities. This study finds that forecast accuracy increases, while forecast dispersion and revision volatility decrease with the magnitude of inside debt. Further analysis shows that inside debt is associated with increased propensity of firms to provide voluntary disclosures and the documented benefits on analyst characteristics accrue only to firms that offer close to optimal level of inside debt (Jensen and Meckling in J Financ Econ 3:305–360, 1976; Edmans and Liu in Rev Finance 15:75–102, 2011). Our research is the first to link debt-like compensation to financial analyst behavior and contributes to the understanding of the implications of inside debt to outside market participants.     

The impact of terrorism on financial markets: An empirical study

The main focus of this paper is to study empirically the impact of terrorism on the behavior of stock, bond and commodity markets. We consider terrorist events that took place in 25 countries over an 11-year time period and implement our analysis using different methods: an event-study approach, a non-parametric methodology, and a filtered GARCH-EVT approach. In addition, we compare the effect of terrorist attacks on financial markets with the impact of other extreme events such as financial crashes and natural catastrophes. The results of our analysis show that a non-parametric approach is the most appropriate method among the three for analyzing the impact of terrorism on financial markets. We demonstrate the robustness of this method when interest rates, equity market integration, spillover and contemporaneous effects are controlled. We show how the results of this approach can be used for investors’ portfolio diversification strategies against terrorism risk.     

An examination of the effects of management earnings forecast form and explanations on financial analyst forecast revisions

Using a sample of 978 quarterly management earnings-per-share forecasts made during the period 1993 to 1999, we document that financial analyst revisions to management earnings forecasts are a function of management forecast form. More precise forecasts (measured three different ways) lead to greater revision of financial analyst consensus EPS forecasts for a given level of unexpected earnings as predicted by Kim and Verrecchia (1991) and Bayesian adjustment models. Also, consistent with our arguments, maximum forecasts are interpreted as bad news by analysts. Our results, while consistent with theory, are inconsistent with recent experimental studies which do not reject the null hypothesis of no effect of management earnings forecast form on the association between unexpected earnings and financial analyst forecast revisions. We also re-examine Baginski, Hassell, and Kimbrough's (2004) finding that attributions used to explain management forecasts affect the reaction to the forecast using analyst data. Consistent with their findings using stock prices, the attribution presence (especially external attributions) increases financial analyst revisions pursuant to management forecasts.     

Brokerage M&As and the peer effect on analyst forecast accuracy

We examine whether the impact of a change in the number of analysts a brokerage firm employs has an asymmetric effect on the forecasting ability of superior and inferior analysts. Specifically, we show that following brokerage M&As only superior analysts benefit from a rise in having a larger number of peers. In addition, we find that the market does not account for the improved performance among superior analysts, and argue that this creates an opportunity for investors to capitalize on this.     

The impact of institutional analyst forecast divergence on crude oil market: Evidence from the mixed frequency models

As important information intermediaries, analysts play a non-negligible role in the crude oil market. Existing research often focuses on analysts' collection and interpretation of firm-specific information, but neglects the impact of analysts' forecasts on specific markets such as the crude oil market, which is crucial to the safe and stable development of the crude oil market. Therefore, this study uses historical data from January 2011 to December 2020 as a sample to construct analysts' forecast divergence indicators from 15 institutional analysts' forecast data on international crude oil futures prices. It then explores the impact of institutional analysts' forecast divergence on oil price return volatility, crude oil market jumps and crude oil futures trading volume, based on various mixed-frequency models. The results are as follows: First, volatility in oil price returns increases with a growing divergence in analysts' forecasts. Second, analysts' forecasts do not trigger jump in the crude oil market on the first six days after the information is released, but trigger a significant positive jump in the market on the seventh day. Third, the impact of analysts' forecast divergence on trading volume is weak; however, the reverse effect is significant, while the static and dynamic spillover results are consistent.     

The impact of tax holidays on earnings management: An empirical study of corporate reporting behavior in a developing-economy framework

This study investigates whether foreign investment enterprises (FIEs) in China alter their corporate reporting behavior in response to a known schedule of tax-rate increases. The context of this investigation is a tax-incentive scheme that allows firms to pay taxes at a reduced rate for a limited period of time, and then at a higher rate when this period expires. If managers attempt to maximize firm value by minimizing tax costs, then the spread of tax rates in the periods surrounding the rate change may provide a substantial incentive for them to accelerate revenue and defer expenses. Consistent with this hypothesis, the empirical results indicate that firms report significantly higher discretionary current accruals for the years before tax-rate increases. The evidence, which indicates that firms manage earnings upward to take advantage of lower tax rates that are available in certain years, has important implications for tax policymakers.     

The impact of socio-economic accounting statements on the investment decision: An empirical study

In this experiment, alternative disclosures of socio-economic accounting information, namely the abatement costs of pollution, were investigated as accounting techniques which may influence the investment decision of potential users. The theoretical rationale stemming from the linguistic relativity paradigm in accounting was that in general the accounting techniques may tend to facilitate or render more difficult various (nonlinguistic) managerial behaviors on the part of the users, and that in this particular context the investment decision effects from different professional groups using alternative socio-economic information will be different. The findings attest to the general relevance of socio-economic accounting information for the bankers under any investment strategy, and for the accountants only under an investment strategy focusing on capital gains.     

The impact of sell-side analyst research coverage on an affiliated broker’s market share of trading volume

Using NASDAQ reported individual stock level trading volume, we find that analyst research coverage on a stock increases the level of an affiliated broker’s market share of trading volume in that stock by 0.8 percent, on average, which corresponds to an additional annual volume of about one million shares in an average stock. Optimistic recommendations increase the level of market share by an additional 0.3 percent, on average, which is consistent with the notion that analysts have an incentive to issue optimistic recommendations. Also, a broker’s market share of volume increases on average when an affiliated analyst changes his/her recommendation, and decreases with the length of time during which an analyst maintains the same recommendation on a stock. The latter findings suggest that sell-side institutions are rewarded for providing new information to the market and for ongoing research services.     

The impact of technological change on household transactions account balances: An empirical cross-section study

The purpose of this article is to determine the impact of adoption of new technology (ATMs) by households on their behavior in holding transactions balances. Previous studies show that households respond to the, availability of ATMs by reducing their currency inventories. Reduced currency needs may be reflected in a reallocation of funds from currency to transactions balances. To test this hypothesis, data from two large household surveys are utilized. It is shown that use of technology has a substantial impact on the transactions balances held by households.     

Mandatory IFRS adoption and analyst forecast accuracy: the role of financial statement-based forecasts and analyst characteristics

Review of Accounting Studies - This study examines whether the improvement in analyst forecast accuracy around mandatory IFRS adoption is associated with the improvement in the accuracy of...     

The effect of restatements on analyst behavior

This paper examines how changes in the credibility of financial reporting affect analyst behavior. Using a sample of restatement firms experiencing a substantial change in credibility over 1997–2006, we document that restatements have a long‐lived effect on analyst behavior and that analysts differentiate between restatements caused by irregularities and those caused by errors. We find that while irregularity restatement firms exhibit a reduction in analyst coverage and forecast accuracy and an increase in forecast dispersion in the post‐restatement period, other restatement firms exhibit only an increase in forecast error. Finally, we find evidence to suggest that remedial actions reduce the effect of irregularity restatements on analyst behavior. Overall, these results are consistent with the notion that restatements affect analyst behavior in forming judgements regarding subsequent earnings announcements.     

An empirical examination of forecast disclosure by bidding companies

This paper examines voluntary disclosure of profit forecasts by bidding companies during takeovers. Disclosure is examined from two perspectives: (i) factors influencing disclosure and (ii) the influence of good news and bad news on disclosure. Takeover documents published during 701 takeover bids for public companies listed on the London Stock Exchange in the period 1988 to 1992 were examined. Two variables accounted for almost all the influences on disclosure of forecasts: bid horizon and type of bid. Probability of forecast disclosure was greater the shorter the bid horizon and during contested bids. In addition, there was some evidence that the nature of the purchase consideration offered by the bidder (cash or paper) and the industry of the bidder influenced disclosure. Disclosure was significantly more likely in paper bids and in the durable goods industry. Forecasts were more likely to be disclosed when firms had good news to report.     

The informativeness of analyst forecast revisions and the valuation of R&D-intensive firms

Prior studies (e.g., [McNichols and O’Brien, 1997] and [Diether et al., 2002]) find that analysts are less willing to disclose unfavorable earnings forecasts than to disclose favorable forecasts, and this tendency induces an optimistic bias in disclosed forecasts that increases with the degree of earnings uncertainty. Building on these findings, we predict that, in the context of R&D-intensive industries, there should be differential informativeness and asymmetric valuation roles for upward versus downward analyst forecast revisions. Consistent with our predictions, we find the following evidence: (i) analyst forecast revisions contain a downward bias, causing upward revisions to under-represent, whereas downward revisions to over-represent, changes in true earnings expectations, with the extent of over/under-representation greater for firms with higher R&D expenditures; (ii) upward revisions are associated with more rapid reductions in earnings uncertainties (proxied by forecast dispersions) than downward revisions, mainly for high R&D firms; and (iii) upward revisions are more effective in mitigating the return differentials between high and low R&D firms (as documented in Chan et al., 2001).     

An exploratory study of earnings management detectability,analyst coverage and the impact of IFRS adoption: Evidence from China

Analysts serving as external monitors to managers is a topic of considerable interest in the analyst coverage literature. There are two outcomes of analyst coverage studies: curbing and stimulating earnings management. However, recent studies (such as Yu, 2008) only provide evidence supporting the curbing side. Given the fact that the data of these studies focus on developed markets and the finding of Rodríguez-Pérez and Hemmen (2010) that external governance mechanisms may stimulate earnings management in an opaque information environment, we conjecture whether stimulating side would be dominant in emerging markets. China offers a valuable setting for us to test the question. Using the data of China capital market from 2003 to 2009, we find that analyst coverage stimulates earnings management through above-the-line items (ALIs) where earnings management cannot be easily detected, and curbs earnings management through below-the-line items (BLIs) where earnings management can be easily detected. We also find that the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in China does create many new opportunities for managers’ earnings management but does not significantly improve the monitoring effect of analyst coverage. We only find that compared to those without analyst coverage, firms with analyst coverage have a lower level of earnings management through BLIs after IFRS adoption. These findings suggest that information opacity may weaken the monitoring effect of external corporate governance mechanisms and high quality accounting standards in the literal sense may not enhance the monitoring effect of external corporate governance mechanisms if it is not compatible with the market’s institutional environment. In addition, we find that firms with earnings meeting the benchmark have a lower level of earnings management, which indicates that bright-line accounting based rules used in emerging capital markets may constrain the managers’ behavior.     

The use of intellectual capital information in investment decisions: An empirical study using analyst reports

Do financial analysts convey intellectual capital information in their recommendations? This study of a sample of analyst reports on large, listed Spanish companies provides some evidence on the question. Analysts usually report information regarding a company's strategy, customers, and processes; they less often provide information about research, development, and innovation. When controlling for endogeneity, we find that certain firm characteristics appear to influence the use of intellectual capital information. Analysts use this information in the case of highly profitable companies. The results also show a significant effect of growth opportunities on intellectual capital disclosure by financial analysts.     

Informative or distracting: CSR disclosure of peer firms and analyst forecast accuracy

We investigate the relationship between the CSR disclosure of peer firms and the analyst forecast accuracy of the focal firm. We find a negative association between peer CSR disclosure and analyst forecast error of the focal firm, indicating that peer CSR disclosure is informative. This negative association is more pronounced when the information environment of the focal firm is worse, when the correlation in fundamentals between the focal firm and its peers is higher, when the business of the focal firm is less complex, when the focal firm has more expert analyst coverage, when the focal firm's financial performance is more sensitive to CSR engagement, or when the quality of peer CSR disclosure is higher. Overall, we show that peer CSR disclosure conveys value-relevant information about the focal firm. Our study enriches the literature on both analyst forecasts and peer information, and we also provide important implications for practitioners in understanding the role of CSR disclosure in capital markets.     

The effect of changes in Japanese consolidation policy on analyst forecast error

Our broad research objective is to investigate whether convergence towards international standards improves the decision usefulness of information. Recent changes in Japanese consolidated reporting practices to better align with international standards provide an excellent setting to investigate this research objective. Specifically, we examine the effect of changes in Japanese consolidation policy on financial analysts’ perceptions of the persistence of subsidiary earnings. Previous research provides evidence that, prior to the change in consolidation policy, consolidated financial information was not used efficiently in the Japanese capital market. Prior research finds a positive relation between subsidiary earnings and future stock returns in Japan, indicating that investors underestimate the persistence of subsidiary earnings. Consistent with prior research using stock returns, we find that financial analysts also underestimate the persistence of subsidiary earnings in Japan. We document a significant positive relation between subsidiary earnings and future forecast errors of consolidated earnings. However, following the changes in consolidation policy in Japan, we find that financial analysts no longer underestimate the persistence of subsidiary earnings. Changes in Japanese consolidation policy in conformance with international standards increase decision usefulness by improving the ability of financial analysts to predict overall firm performance. One limitation of our research design relates to the adoption of mandated accounting policy changes by all sample firms in the same calendar time. This makes it difficult to control for the impact of correlated omitted variables. While this concern can never be completely eliminated, we provide additional tests that examine sample partitions by firm size and industry. These additional tests support the primary findings that Japan’s efforts to converge consolidation rules with international standards have improved analysts’ consolidated earnings forecasts.