Ratings versus market-based measures of default risk in portfolio governance

This paper assesses whether ratings or market-based credit risk measures are more suitable for formulating portfolio governance rules. Such rules, which consist of buy and sell restrictions, are commonly used in investment management. Based on data from 1983 to 2002, it is not evident that one of the two measures is superior. The relative power of the two measures in predicting defaults depend on the investor’s investment horizon and risk appetite. The results support the agencies’ claim that their policy of reducing rating volatility, which builds on the though-the-cycle approach and the avoidance of frequent rating reversals, is beneficial to bond investors. The results also suggest that widely used statistical measures of rating quality may be insufficient to judge the economic value of rating information in specific contexts.     

Industry policy,cross-region investment,and enterprise investment efficiency

The introduction of industry policies creates a non-market-oriented policy arbitrage space, which in turn triggers enterprises to adopt "strategic" investments to obtain government policy preferences, which may induce irrational over-investment behaviors and even lead to long-term investment inefficiencies. For an empirical study of the impact of industry policy for the cross-region enterprise investment in specific locations, we manually collected information on industry policy in various regions, as well as data on the establishment of subsidiaries of Chinese listed companies from 2006 to 2019.The results show that enterprises are more likely to invest in regions supported by industry policies. If the enterprise's location is not supported by policies, the impact of this policy "gap" will be strengthened. We find that the higher the level of finance in the region where the enterprise is located, the greater the possibility of the enterprise's cross-region investment. Our research also shows that private enterprise has more substantial incentives to engage in "policy arbitrage", and state-owned enterprises are less affected. In china, a lot of enterprises in regions with high returns on capital have been investing in regions with low returns has increased. However, the increased intensity of investment in low-return regions will significantly inhibit the production efficiency of these enterprises. Our findings help clarify the effect of public policies on the enterprise's investment behavior and efficiency, which enriches the research on the impact of government macroeconomic policies on enterprise micro decision-making. We believe that, when promoting regional industrial upgrades through industry policies, it is necessary to guide enterprises to follow market rules to make market-oriented investments.     

Quasi-monetary and quasi-fiscal policy rules at the zero-lower bound

This paper assesses adjustments at the zero lower bound (ZLB) in an economy incorporating financial frictions and nominal price stickiness. We examine the dynamic paths of key variables under recurring real (productivity) and financial (net worth) shocks under three alternative policy scenarios: removal of the zero lower bound (to allow for negative rates), quantitative easing policies at the ZLB, and the use of endogenous tax-rates rules for consumption and labor income at the ZLB. The results show that the fiscal tax-rate rules (acting like a quasi-monetary policy with direct effects on consumption) can be as effective as quantitative easing (a quasi-fiscal policy with indirect effects on investment) in times of prolonged crises due to recurring negative shocks.     

经常账户冲击、资本账户管理与中央银行货币政策操作

经常账户负向冲击及引发的宏观变量联动性通常对各经济体央行货币政策操作构成挑战。本文构建了融入经常账户冲击的小型开放经济DSGE模型,比较了采取不同资本账户管理工具(数量型和价格型)情景下,央行执行数量型货币政策规则、盯住CPI通胀泰勒规则、盯住PPI通胀泰勒规则下,经常账户负向冲击对货币政策操作的异质性影响及传导机制,并进行了福利分析。主要结论如下：第一,经常账户负向冲击将对本国央行货币政策操作构成一定影响;第二,资本账户管理可以成为缓冲经常账户负向冲击的防火墙,价格型资本账户管理工具与盯住PPI通胀泰勒规则相结合造成的福利损失较小;第三,经常账户贸易端与收益端双重负向冲击对一国货币政策操作的影响更大,但公众预期到的经常账户恶化对货币政策操作的影响将有所减弱。本文认为,转型经济体央行应倾向于执行价格型货币政策规则,最优货币政策应在稳定价格水平与缓释风险方面进行权衡,适度降低对名义汇率的关注度,稳慎推进资本账户开放进程,并可优先选择价格型资本账户管理工具。     

成长性、代理冲突与公司财务政策

本文基于成长性、代理冲突与公司财务政策之系统关联的多维视角分析,着眼于将成长性差异作为一个关键变量时,考察其是否可以成为影响公司代理冲突及其治理与公司财务政策选择的一个重要基础。本文理论分析表明:作为一种制度环境———尤其是作为新兴/转轨经济国家行业与公司的典型特征,成长性差异显著影响公司财务政策;公司治理与公司业绩的关系受制于成长性的高低,成长性通过投资决策、融资选择与股利政策等关键财务政策的中介作用影响公司治理与其价值的相关性;在财务政策中投资决策更具有基础性,融资政策与股利政策都基于提高投资效率而进行选择,将成长性差异影响与公司投资决策相结合、或在公司的投资等关键财务政策的研究和实践之中深入考量成长机会影响,将使得代理冲突及其公司治理更具有针对性和有效性;高成长性可以成为公司治理环境改善的一种有效基础,深入关注(高)成长性的显著"公司治理效应",可以为公司代理冲突及其治理、以及其投融资选择等关键财务政策提供更为清晰的决策信号。     

DIVIDEND POLICY AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO INVESTMENT AND FINANCING POLICIES: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

In this paper it is argued that dividend policy is not determined as a residual, but rather that firms adopt independent dividend and investment policies. Empirical evidence, based on a questionnaire survey, supports this view. Independent dividend and investment policies are possible because debt finance is usually raised in sufficient quantities to accommodate the financial demands created by dividend and investment decisions.     

Endogenous free riding and the decentralized user-fee financing of spillover goods in a n-region economy

The paper analyzes the strategic effects of decentralized user-fee and enforcement policies for the financing of interregional spillover goods. We derive the equilibrium pricing and enforcement rules for a n-region economy. We show that under mild conditions on the pattern of substitution between spillover goods and contrary to the 2-region case, the decentralized equilibrium cannot be Pareto improved by coordinated policy changes. However, decentralized equilibria are suboptimal from the point of view of utilitarian welfare. We characterize the direction of the distortion for this case. The regions’ incentives for user-fee enforcement are ambiguous in general. With only two regions and if regions only charge non-residents, however, there is overinvestment in user-fee enforcement in the decentralized equilibrium. For the case of a Tullock enforcement function and linear demand for the spillover goods we show that welfare is u-shaped in a parameter that measures the technological advantage of user-fee enforcement.     

宏观审慎政策如何影响企业金融化?

本文分析了宏观审慎政策对企业金融化的影响及其传导机制,研究发现,宏观审慎政策通过限制银行信贷影响企业从事投资活动的资金来源,进而抑制企业的金融投资。这一过程可以概括为"宏观审慎政策-银行信贷-企业金融化"。本文以2000-2016年沪深两市A股非金融行业上市公司的年度财务数据为样本,进行实证分析,结果表明,宏观审慎政策能够显著降低非金融企业的金融投资增长率,有利于抑制企业金融化趋势,回归主营业务,避免经济脱实向虚。考察不同的宏观审慎工具,本文发现,相比于准备金要求,贷款价值比工具对降低企业金融投资增长率的作用更显著。本文通过中介效应检验,验证了银行信贷是宏观审慎政策影响企业金融化的部分中介变量,其中介效应在总效应中占比约为20%。     

The role of expectations in stabilization policy

This paper develops and tests a theory of the process by which private agents in an economy form expectations about government policy. Agents form and update their beliefs about the true state of government policy in a Bayesian fashion. The ‘credibility’ of a policy is defined to be the subjective probability that the government is pursuing a 'reform' policy rule. The ‘credibility’ of a reform of monetary or exchange rate policies is a function of the parameters of both monetary and fiscal policies. The theory is applied to the Chilean and Argentine exchange reforms of the late 1970's.     

税收政策对企业投资的影响

投资对于经济周期波动和经济增长至关重要。百年不遇的金融危机使得许多国家实体经济受到影响,各国都相继出台了一系列刺激经济的方案,而其中涉及大量促进投资的税收政策。本文简要分析了世界主要国家采取的促进投资的税收政策,并在此基础上探讨了税收政策对企业投资的影响。     

The learning cost of interest rate reversals

Many central banks in many time periods have sought to avoid interest rate reversals, but at present there is no good explanation of this phenomenon. Our analysis identifies a new learning cost associated with reversing the interest rate. In a standard monetary model with forward-looking expectations, data uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, a policy that frequently reverses the interest rate makes learning the key parameters of the model more difficult. Optimal monetary policy internalises this learning cost and therefore has a lower number of interest rate reversals.     

创新支持政策下自贸试验区企业多阶段研发投资动态决策分析

基于实物期权理论,构建自贸试验区企业多阶段研发投资动态决策模型,运用数值模拟方法,考量自贸试验区相关税收、补贴以及知识产权保护等创新支持政策对企业研发投资行为的影响。结果显示：相比传统投资决策方法,多阶段研发投资动态决策模型能更好地帮助企业根据市场环境变化动态调整研发投资策略,发掘政策红利;有助于政府及时调整与完善相关政策,激励与引导企业创新。鉴于此,需完善鼓励类产业目录、优化事中事后监管规则、健全知识产权保护机制、适时调整企业发展战略。     

The real effects of corporate fraud: evidence from class action lawsuits

Using a sample of lawsuit firms from 1996 to 2009, this study examines whether fraud revelation through shareholder class action affects corporate financing and investment policies. We predict that revelation of fraud damages defendant firms' reputation and undermines credibility of their financial disclosure. As a result, such firms experience difficulty in financing and reduce investment accordingly. Consistent with our prediction, we find that fraud‐committing firms experience a decline in total financing (total investment) by 1.5 per cent (0.8 per cent) of total assets after fraud revelation. Difference‐in‐differences analyses reinforce our main findings. The impact is more pronounced for firms with lower inherent fraud incidence.     

Monetary Policy Rules in an Open Economy with Heuristics: Which Model Is Best?

The choices of policy targets and the formation of agents’ expectation have been critical issues for reconsidering monetary policy management since 2008. The purpose of this article is to evaluate macroeconomic stability in a New Keynesian open economy in which agents experience cognitive limitations. The (im)perfect credibility of various monetary policies (e.g., a Taylor-type rule, strict domestic inflation targeting, strict CPI inflation targeting, exchange rate peg) may lead agents to react according to their expectation rules, and then create various degrees of booms and busts in output and inflation. Therefore, relaxation of the rational expectation hypothesis has potential consequences for policy designs. Our simulations confirm that the business cycles induced by animal spirits are enhanced by strict inflation targeting. Furthermore, a Taylor-type (CPI or domestic inflation) rule or a credible exchange rate pegging system can improve social welfare and stability in an open economy.     

The Interaction of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies

I analyze a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model where the financing of productive investment is affected by a moral hazard problem. I solve for jointly Ramsey‐optimal monetary and macroprudential policies. I find that when a financial friction is present in addition to the standard nominal friction, the optimal policy can replicate the first‐best allocation if the social planner can conduct both monetary and macroprudential policy. Using monetary policy alone is not enough: a policy trade‐off between stabilizing inflation and output gap emerges. When policy follows simple rules, the source of fluctuations is relevant for the choice of the appropriate policy mix.     

An investigation of the gains from commitment in monetary policy

We propose a simple framework for analyzing a continuum of monetary policy rules characterized by differing degrees of credibility, in which commitment and discretion become special cases of what we call quasi-commitment. The monetary policy authority is assumed to formulate optimal commitment plans, to be tempted to renege on them, and to succumb to this temptation with a constant exogenous probability known to the private sector. By interpreting this probability as a continuous measure of the (lack of) credibility of the monetary policy authority, we investigate the welfare effect of a marginal increase in credibility. Our main finding is that, in a simple model of the monetary transmission mechanism, most of the gains from commitment accrue at relatively low levels of credibility.     

利率调整与经济增长关系的实证研究

本文将利率对经济增长率的影响效应分解为两部分:一部分是由平均投资倾向加权的资本边际产出随利率变化所反映的投资效率效应;另一部分是由资本边际产出加权的平均投资倾向随利率变化所反映的投资规模效应。运用误差修正模型对这两种效应进行估计检验,实证表明,实际利率的投资规模效应几乎可以忽略,投资效率效应也非常低,上一年实际贷款利率对经济增长的影响效应很微小。因此,在中国利率政策还难以成为货币政策实施的主要手段的情况下,抑制通货膨胀还需依赖其他调控政策手段。     

External constraints and endogenous growth: Why didn't some countries benefit from capital flows?

Empirical evidence on the growth benefits of capital inflows is mixed. The growth benefits accruing from capital inflows also appear to be larger for high savings countries. We explain this phenomenon using an OLG model of endogenous growth in open economies with borrowing constraints that can generate both positive and negative growth effects of capital inflows. The amount an economy can borrow is restricted by an endogenous enforcement constraint. In our setting, with physical capital and a pay-as-you-go pensions system, the steady state is unique. However, it can either be constrained or unconstrained. In a constrained economy, opening up to equity and FDI inflows can be bad for growth because it makes the domestic interest rate too low, which endogenously tightens borrowing constraints. Agents decrease savings and investment in productivity-enhancing activities resulting in lower growth. Results are reversed in an unconstrained economy. We also provide a quantitative analysis of these constraints and some policy implications.     

中国潜在产出的综合测算及其政策含义

本文分别利用生产函数法、状态空间模型、宏观计量经济模型及DSGE模型四种方法,对我国1993-2018年的潜在产出进行了估算,详细分析了其变动原因和政策含义,并给出未来10年的趋势预测。主要结论有:(1)1993-2018年我国潜在产出呈现出逐步放缓走势,平均增长率为9.4%,略低于9.5%的实际GDP平均增长率。其中,全要素生产率趋势平均增速为3.6%,资本投入平均增速为11.7%,劳动力投入平均增速为0.6%,对潜在产出增速的平均贡献率分别为38.3%、58.3%和3.4%。(2)近年来潜在产出增速的趋势性放缓主要源于高投资并未形成有效资本,进而导致有效资本投入对潜在产出的拉动力持续走低。而投资专有技术进步放缓,投资调整成本上升,资本形成效率快速下降,是有效资本投入不足和潜在产出放缓的深层次原因。这也是供给侧结构性改革的理论基础。(3)劳动力市场搜寻成本较高,供需结构不匹配,导致劳动的增长贡献率较低,我国的人口优势并未得到充分利用和有效发挥,进一步加剧了近年来潜在产出增速的趋势性放缓。(4)如果不推动供给侧结构性改革,未来5-10年我国潜在产出平均增速仍将缓慢下降。与发达经济体相比,我国潜在产出增长仍有较大提升空间,尤其在劳动投入方面。(5)政策上,应在平衡好短期需求与中长期改革目标基础上,以结构性改革为导向,完善劳动力市场,提高劳动力质量,降低就业主体的搜寻成本。着力促进全要素生产率提升,更加注重优化投资质量和结构,提高投资专有技术进步水平。     

Bail-in vs bail-out: Bank resolution and liability structure

What is the joint impact of different resolution regimes and capital requirements on the optimal liability structure of a bank holding insured deposits and issuing non-bail-inable debt and bail-inable Tier1-capital debt? We address this novel question and find that: (1) a credible bail-in resolution regime rules out extreme leverage and creates value by postponing default; (2) a positive probability of bail-out destroys credibility with dramatic effects on financial risk-taking, to the point of reversing the classical positive link between optimal leverage and growth prospects; and (3) a strict enforcement of the Basel III CET1 capital requirement strongly mitigates the impact of a non-credible resolution regime.