CONSUMPTION (IN)EFFICIENCY AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT

Consumption may be inefficient when a household cannot choose the optimal bundle of goods at a minimum cost. After discussing alternative approaches, this paper proposes the use of money metric indirect utility function motivated by Feenstra and Varian in measuring consumption inefficiency. Then, Bamoul–Tobin transactions demand for money model is extended to show how household ability to manage its income, expenditure and financial accounts may affect consumption inefficiency. Results of the stochastic cost frontier approach, which is employed in estimation and the prediction of the European Union household consumption inefficiency, suggest that household expenditure performance is partly explained by the changes in the consumption efficiency and the efficiency is not independent of financial account management.     

经济稳定动态监测系统探讨——基于交易资金流量模型的分析

经济虚拟化程度的加深使传统经济理论对"滞胀"与货币流通速度等现实经济问题的解释力普遍下降。尤其是世界各国频繁爆发的金融危机更是表明了基于传统资金流量分析法建立经济稳定的指标体系并不能对当代经济稳定进行有效的预警与监测。只有将价格、重复交易量与真实的货币流量结合分析才能透彻地反映价格与交易量对经济稳定性的影响。     

INTER-OCCUPATION DIFFERENCES IN THE PATTERN OF MONETIZED AND NON-MONETIZED CONSUMER EXPENDITURE IN RURAL INDIA*

This study attempts to examine the inter-occupational differences in the patterns of cash and in-kind expenditure in rural India on the basis of a special tabulation of The National Sample Survey (NSS), 18th round (February 1963-January 1964) consumer expenditure data. The occupational groups considered here are (i) cultivators, (ii) agricultural labourers, (iii) other agriculture, and (iv) non-agricultural occupations. The analysis is carried out primarily in terms of curves relating item-specific cash/kind expenditure to total cash/total kind expenditure for fifteen selected item-groups of expenditure. For each item-occupation combination, four two-parameter forms of Engel curve together with the log-log-inverse form are estimated and the comparisons across occupation groups are made separately on the basis of each of the two-parameter curve forms which were found to give the best fit for at least one occupation group as well as the log-log-inverse form, using analysis of covariance technique. The results indicate that so far as the cash components of item expenditures are concerned, the pattern of expenditure is considerably influenced by occupational factors. It is observed that cultivators have a cash expenditure pattern different from those of agrictural labourers and of households with non-agricultural activities. The comparison of the kind expenditure patterns does not, however, reflect any clear picture primarily because in most cases the itemwise kind expenditure functions could not be estimated satisfactorily. This analysis also suggests that the specification of itemwise cash and kind expenditure functions employed here may not be the most satisfactory ones in an economy with a high degree of non-monetization and therefore alternative specifications need be examined.     

FLOW-OF-FUNDS ACCOUNTS IN EASTERN EUROPE*

There is increased interest in flow of funds analysis due to the greater role assigned to money and to financial processes in the economic reforms now being implemented in Eastern Europe. After presenting a history of financial flows analysis, the paper describes data sources, and sectoring procedures. The efforts of particular countries are then reviewed and compared.     

IS MONEY THE MEASURE OF WELFARE IN RUSSIA?

The transformation of a non-market to a market economy ought to change fundamentally the significance of money incomes for welfare. Whereas in a stressful non-market economy such as the former Soviet Union, non-monetized resources could substitute for money income and promote welfare, in a modern market economy money income should be a good proxy for household welfare. This article tests the extent to which Russians are now in a modern market economy by analyzing data from nationwide Russian surveys in January, 1992, and April, 1994. Modern influences are increasingly important as a determinant of the distribution of money incomes, but not as an influence upon household welfare. The "randomness" of temporary disruptions of welfare is in accord with Rawlsian principles of equity.     

THE TREATMENT OF EDUCATION IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTING1

It is argued that the conventions of an accounting system, such as the S.N.A., are a matter of convenience. The treatment of education as a current expenditure, instead of as a form of capital formation, derives from the Keynesian system, and is not appropriate for dynamic problems of developing countries, where weaknesses in education are often the main “bottleneck” in the process of development. In such countries, expenditure on education clearly yields its benefits mainly in the longer run. To treat this as a consumption item biases policy in the direction of using financial resources for fixed capital rather than human investment, and may cause aid agencies to penalize countries which expand their educational systems. A similar problem arises on other expenditures such as health, but the case for treating them as investment is not so strong. To treat educational expenditure as part of capital formation logically requires two major changes. First education needs to be removed from private and public consumption, and for this purpose a fairly broad definition of what is education should be used. Secondly, the stock of educational capital should be valued. The valuation problems are, however, severe. Variations in cost components make historic cost of little value as a yardstick, and calculations of future returns are fraught with difficulties. Using replacement costs, which seems the best method, involves the construction of education profiles in physical terms which can then be valued by present or by standardised costs. The depreciation of human capital through mortality and retirement can be allowed for by applying national average rates to these physical profiles. Switching educational expenditure from current to capital accounts involves no serious practical problem. However, although there should logically be an allowance for depreciation on human capital, this is not recommended; single monetary measures of educational stock are not very meaningful, and this would involve changing the definition of “net” aggregates. Development of statistics of educational stocks and flows in physical terms—the beginnings of “demographic accounting” fully integrated with the rest of national accounting—is strongly advocated.     

POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNANCE, AND CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

This article aims at identifying the determinants of government expenditures of developing countries by placing emphasis on the political institutions and governance variables, which have not been addressed so much in the previous literature. Using a panel data analysis for 97 developing countries from the period 1984 to 2004, this study finds evidence that controlling for economic, social, and demographical factors, political institutional and governance variables significantly influence the consumption expenditure in developing countries. Political institutional variables such as the type of political ruling and political power in the parliament positively influence consumption expenditure; on the contrary, governance variables such as corruption influence negatively. Furthermore, we find that autocratic governments with military ruling are not particularly accommodative toward consumption expenditures as the public spending significantly shrinks under military dictatorship compared with other forms of governance. In order to check consistency of our findings, we ran alternative specifications as well as conducted extreme bound tests. Our results largely survived these tests showing robustness of our findings. (JEL E01, E02, E61, E62, H2, H4, H5, H6, O11, O5)     

THE FISCAL POLICY RESPONSE TO PUBLIC DEBT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Theoretical models on fiscal sustainability hypothesize that indebted governments can lower their current debt by generating future primary surpluses, ceteris paribus. While both developed and developing countries struggle with the issue of debt stabilization, the latter, in particular face heightened sensitivity from creditors, which provides them an impetus to respond more strongly to stabilize their debt. Based on a panel of 53 developing countries, we examine the fiscal response of these countries to changes in their debt‐to‐gross domestic product ratio. We find evidence of a positive relationship between the debt and primary surplus and that countries adjust along both the revenue and expenditure margins at roughly the same rate. (JEL E62, H50, O11)     

THE DETERMINANTS OF PRIVATE CAPITAL FLOWS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES: THE ROLE OF THE FED'S UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY

Previous studies on the effect of the Fed's Unconventional Monetary Policy on capital flows in Emerging Economies have not been conclusive. I analyze if the effect of these policies on capital flows is heterogeneous between countries. This approach could be the smoking gun in this debate as I attempt to find evidence of a specific mechanism by which Unconventional Monetary Policy could affect the pattern of capital flows in Emerging Economies. The results suggest that Unconventional Monetary Policy has a significant effect on capital flows which depends on the type of measure adopted and the degree of financial exposure of each country to the United States. (JEL C23, E52, E58, F21, F32)     

The role of financial sector competition for monetary policy

Abstract In this paper, we examine the impact of competition in the banking industry on financial market activity. In particular, we explore this issue in a setting where banks simultaneously insure individuals against liquidity risk and offer loans to promote intertemporal consumption smoothing. In addition, spatial separation and private information generate a transactions role for money. Interestingly, we demonstrate that the industrial organization of the financial system bears significant implications for the effects of monetary policy. Under perfect competition, higher rates of money growth lead to lower interest rates and a higher volume of lending activity. In contrast, in a monopoly banking sector, money growth restricts the availability of funds and raises the cost of borrowing.     

MONEY,SOCIAL STATUS AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH IN A GENERALIZED CASH‐IN‐ADVANCE MODEL

This paper analytically examines the equilibrium growth effect of money/inflation in a standard one‐sector AK model of endogenous growth with the most generalized cash‐in‐advance constraint and relative wealth‐induced preferences for social status. We show that on the economy's unique balanced growth equilibrium path, the sign of the correlation between money and output growth depends crucially on: (i) the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption; and (ii) the liquidity‐constrained ratio of consumption to investment expenditure. Moreover, our model economy always exhibits a positive output–growth effect in response to changes of the strength for social status. We also undertake numerical experiments to assess the quantitative importance of our theoretical results under an empirically plausible set of parameters.     

GOVERNMENT SERVICES IN RELATION TO TOTAL CONSUMPTION OF THE POPULATION IN ASIAN AND PACIFIC COUNTRIES,WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO INDIA*

The paper focuses on hitherto neglected fields of trends in the total consumption of the population in the Asian and Pacific countries and pays special attention to situations in India. In doing so it presents a comparative picture on the basis of four variants of the concepts as delineated in the Technical Report prepared by the United Nations Statistical Office. The proportion of government services in the total consumption of the population in the countries depended on socio-political arrangements and policy considerations. Over the years these proportions either increased or remained constant or declined as the situation developed. In the Indian context the paper deals in detail with the magnitude and proportions of each type of government service over the period 1960-79. Recognizing that it is the access to and not provision of the services which should rightly be considered, the Indian National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) during July 1980—June 1981 collected country-wide data from households on the benefit they received from public services in the field of education, health and public distribution of essential commodities. The data from the survey in conjunction with further work proposed by the NSSO should help in the preparation of quantitative estimates of benefit received from these services by various socio-economic groups in rural and urban areas. The paper touches upon the factors affecting personal consumption expenditure. It provides broad direction for future work on the subject.     

Does Saying ‘Yes’ to Capital Inflows Necessarily Mean Good Business? the Effect of Antimoney Laundering Regulations in the Latin American and the Caribbean Economies

This study explores the level of compliance and the subsequent economic performance of states in the context of anti‐money laundering (AML) regulations. Following Holmstrom and Tirole (1997) and Obstfeld and Rogoff (1998), we examine why countries admit illicit flows of money and the economic costs of these transactions. Analyzing 36 Latin American and Caribbean jurisdictions between 1960 and 2010, we find that poor institutional performance by a jurisdiction (AML ratings, blacklists with non‐cooperator countries, and corruption indicators) affects negatively the investment ratio to GDP, the FDI ratio to GDP, and financial development (ratio of credit markets to GDP). These findings are novel in the literature, offering an important contribution to the debate on financial regulatory convergence.     

Income velocity and non-GDP transactions in the UK

It is widely reported for many countries, including the UK, that income velocity has been highly variable around a declining trend in recent years. This paper advances the following hypothesis. The demand for credit and hence the broad money stock are influenced by total spending in the economy, rather than spending only on newly produced goods and services. Since total spending in the economy has generally increased relative to GDP (mainly because of asset transactions) credit and money have expanded more rapidly than GDP, with the resulting fall in income velocity. Using quarterly data from 1975 to 2008, we estimate a vector error correction with income velocity as the dependent variable and the ratio of total to GDP transactions as an explanatory variable. The results show substantial support for the hypothesis and raise (further) doubts about the information content of broad money aggregates for inflation targeting central banks.     

Mobile money,risk sharing,and educational investment: Panel evidence from rural Uganda

We examine the impact of the rapidly expanding mobile banking service “mobile money” on rural households' ability to smooth investment in schooling after a negative shock. We find that a negative shock induces a 9.3‐percentage point decrease in per school‐age child educational expenditure for households who do not use mobile money compared to an 8.3‐percentage point decrease for households that have adopted mobile money. The underlying mechanism is an increase in remittance receipt and the diversity of senders owing to the reduction in transactions cost provided by mobile money. We show that our results are robust to alternative mechanisms. We use the expansion in mobile money agent network as an exogenous variation in access to mobile money.     

The relationship between saving and finance: theory and evidence from E.U. countries

This paper investigates the relationship between saving and investment in an effort to shed light on the issue of mobility of capital and whether or not this is prevented by the presence of any barriers. The data of our analysis are annual and come from 14 E.U. countries during the 1960–1994 period. The econometric analysis shows that for the E.U. countries, saving and the provision of credit are two cointegrated variables, which means that for each E.U. country (Belgium was the only exception) the amount of money saved is closely related to the amount of money that is ultimately invested. This result lends support to the view that in E.U. countries the degree of capital mobility plays a minor role in investment, which is primarily influenced by the conditions affecting the domestic provision of savings. In addition, the econometric analysis shows that the causal linkage is in most countries from savings to investment.     

AN EXAMINATION OF THE FEASIBILITY OF USING MONETARY DATA FOR NATIONAL INCOME ESTIMATES

In a number of underdeveloped countries today, adequate statistics for estimating national output by traditional national accounting methods are unavailable or unreliable. However, many of these same countries do publish data on monetary variables at an early stage in their development. These data can now be used to estimate national income.
In this study the money supply was defined to include all currency in circulation, private deposits subject to check at all banks and postal systems, all government deposits, and unused overdrafts less float. The national accounts data were taken from United Nations sources and data supplied by various foreign statistical offices. To make the accounts more comparable in terms of coverage and to limit reported income to the monetized sector of the economy, non-monetary imputations were deleted.
The monetary and national accounts data were combined in a multiple, stepwise regression. National income was used as the dependent variable and money supply and other data were used as the independent variables. The final estimating equations explained about 96 per cent of the variation in income between countries. Other tests were conducted using the currency ratio, transactions velocity, population, and per capita consumption. However, these variables did not augment the explanatory power of the regression equations.
When the equations were used to estimate national income for twenty-two under-developed countries, the derived estimates showed a high degree of concordance with reported income where it existed for comparative purposes. The results indicate that monetary data can be used to estimate national income for underdeveloped countries with a relatively high degree of accuracy, between countries, and from year to year within a country.     

Remittances,transaction costs,and informality

Recorded workers' remittances to developing countries reached $167 billion in 2005, bringing increasing attention to these flows as a potential tool for development. In this paper, we explore the determinants of remittances and their associated transaction costs. We find that recorded remittances depend positively on the stock of migrants and negatively on transfer costs and exchange rate restrictions. In turn, transfer costs are lower when financial systems are more developed and exchange rates less volatile. The negative impact of transactions costs on remittances suggests that migrants either refrain from sending money home or else remit through informal channels when costs are high. We provide evidence from household surveys supportive of a sizeable informal sector.     

NATIONAL PRODUCT AT CONSTANT PRICES IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY

With few exceptions, only cormmodity flows and values which can be determined by means of commodity flows (flows of goods and services) are calculated in constant prices in the official national accounts of the Federal Republic of Germany. Figures an the industrial origin and the final use of the national product are published, the former according to thirty industries, the latter according to the major types of uses of which in particular private consumption expenditure has been further analysed. The computations at constant prices are based on market prices and not on factor costs. It is only on this basis that a uniform valuation of the production and the expenditure side can be made since the turnover tax, which is the most important indirect tax, is contained in the elements of final demand in varying shares and cannot be eliminated (the tax is part of the price and has cumulative effect). The computation at constant prices presupposes a breakdown of the values in current prices according to quantities and prices. This raises a number of problems, e.g. because seller and buyer may consider differing aspects-production costs, technical attributes, etc., on the one hand, and use etc., on the other hand. In part there exist only vague ideas, or no ideas at all, as to what is to be considered-from a theoretical point of view-as quantity and price. In other cases the two values can only with great difficulties, if at all, be quantified, or there exists no market price and only the production costs are available. The author deals in greater detail with differences in quality and new commodities, the determination and treatment of quantities and prices for services, in particular for trade services (services attached to goods), the computation of government services at constant prices considering the development of productivity in public service, the determination of the values calculated as balances, above all the treatment of changes in the terms of trade for net exports of goods and services, the computation of the contributions of industries to the gross domestic product and, finally, the reconciliation of the production and the expenditure side. In a third section the author deals with index formulae and the base year. In the majority of cases values are deflated; partly, however, they are currently adjusted by means of volume and quantity data. On the production side the two methods are in part combined. In a concluding section a survey is provided of the computation methods used in the Federal Republic of Germany and on the available material for the computations. Mention is made of depreciation at constant prices.     

一个GDP动力学模型与货币金融政策

This article applies a dynamics approach in the research of monetary law of movement under the complex system of social economical operation, and characterizes the movement of money in a social institutional framework during GDP’s formation. Assuming that humans’ pursuit of the return of their money expenditure is a sensible course of nature, it defines the expression of money circulation velocity, and proceeds to deduce the basic differential equation of money circulation. By solving this equation, we can get the expression for a GDP dynamics model. After empirically testing the expression, this article draws a conclusion: GDP and the money in circulation (M₀) share the positive correlation when the monetary financial institution remains unchanged.