Renegotiation-proof contracting, disclosure, and incentives for efficient investment

Disclosure by firms would seem to reduce investment inefficiency by reducing informational asymmetry. However, the impact of disclosure is endogenous and depends on incentives within the firm. Given optimal renegotiation-proof contracts, disclosing only accepted contracts does not solve the Myers-Majluf problem. What solves the problem is having either full transparency of all compensation negotiations or, more reasonably, additional forward-looking announcements. The model is robust to renegotiation in equilibrium, the order of moves, and moral hazard. The analysis illuminates disclosure regulation: forward-looking disclosure is beneficial when the manager's contract is optimal and induces truth-telling.     

Returns of Small Growth Stocks: An Empirical Analysis

I investigate the mean reversion tendency of small growth stocks. Using a carefully articulated research design employing established and empirically tested principles, my findings should support or refute the anecdotal evidence that small growth stocks make superior investments. The primary motivation for the study springs from the documented differential preference among investors for value and growth stocks. Despite evidence that value stocks tend to outperform growth stocks, investors retain strong interest in growth stocks. Yet in examining the performance of Business Week’s (BW), smaller capitalization companies (called “Hot Growth Companies”) with respect to the overall financial market, Bauman et al. [2002] found positive excess returns in the pre-publication period but negative excess returns in the post-publication period. A limitation of their study is that their analyses relied on only three criteria: sales, BW rank and return on capital, which do not represent completely a firm’s financial health. I replicate Bauman et al.’s study but use a more robust and representative variable set to test the mean reversal hypothesis — Forbes’ financial criteria — and I focus on six variables. In the current study, I look at 4,200 companies listed in Forbes from 1980 to 2000. The results of the expanded study substantiate Bauman et al.’s [2002] study showing that there are positive excess returns in the pre-publication period, but negative excess returns in the post-publication period. An expanded future study will look at five additional variables to see if they make a significant difference on the effects of the returns of small growth stocks.     

Entrepreneurship, windfall gains and financial constraints: Evidence from Germany

We investigate the link between the propensity to become an entrepreneur and the exogenous release from financial constraints in Germany. This is defined in terms of the movement from employment to self-employment on receipt of a financial windfall. A theoretical framework developing Evans and Jovanovic (1989) is set up and tested with panel data from German households. The results show that financial constraints do exist given that individuals are more likely to start a personal business after receiving a windfall gain. The value of windfall gains has a significant but non linear effect on the decision to become self employed. The data reveal that differences in ability and income affect the change in employment status. We also report that there is no evidence that becoming self-employed involves the anticipation of windfall gains.     

The impact of the financial crisis on new firm registration

Panel data for 93 countries shows that most countries experienced a sharp drop in new firm registration during the financial crisis. The decline was more pronounced in countries with higher levels of financial development that were more affected by the crisis.     

Overnight borrowing, interest rates and extreme value theory

We examine the dynamics of extreme values of overnight borrowing rates in an inter-bank money market before a financial crisis during which overnight borrowing rates rocketed up to (simple annual) 4000 percent. It is shown that the generalized Pareto distribution fits well to the extreme values of the interest rate distribution. We also provide predictions of extreme overnight borrowing rates using pre-crisis data. The examination of tails (extreme values) provides answers to such issues as to what are the extreme movements to be expected in financial markets; is there a possibility for even larger movements and, are there theoretical processes that can model the type of fat-tails in the observed data? The answers to such questions are essential for proper management of financial exposures and laying ground for regulations.     

Trading imbalances and the law of one price

We study trading and prices of Chinese (mainland)/Hong Kong dual-listed shares. Relative prices can diverge by a factor of two and exhibit significant variation over time. Order imbalances explain contemporaneous changes in relative prices at daily and weekly frequencies.     

A new measurement method of investor overconfidence

We present an alternative measurement method of investor overconfidence, using unique survey data on stock market predictions of investors. We apply the Parkinson estimate based on extreme bounds around the stock forecast to deduce investor confidence. The results support overconfidence.     

Debt policy, corporate taxes, and discount rates

This paper applies the standard risk-neutral valuation framework to tax shields generated by dynamic debt policies. We derive a partial differential equation (PDE) for the value of the debt tax shield. For a class of dynamic debt policies that depend on the asset's free cash flows, value, and past performance, we obtain closed-form solutions for the PDE. We also derive the tax-adjusted cost of capital for free cash flows and analyze the conditions under which the weighted average cost of capital is an appropriate discount rate. Finally, we derive closed-form solutions for equity betas, which differ from the formulas that have traditionally been used to lever and unlever equity betas.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FINANCIAL INCENTIVES FOR COMPANY PRESIDENTS AND FIRM PERFORMANCE IN JAPAN*

Kaplan (1994 ) concludes that the relationship between top pay and stock performance in Japan is similar to that in the USA. Using a new and comprehensive data set that includes presidents’ stock and their stock option holdings, this study estimates the sensitivity of Japanese presidents’ wealth to shareholder wealth in the period 1977–2000. Contrary to the commonly held belief that Japanese corporate governance is becoming more like that in the USA, the results show that pay–performance sensitivity actually decreased substantially after 1990. In 2000, Japanese presidents received $US22,100 when stock returns increased from ?2.1% to 14.8%.     

价值投资于中国股市的可行性分析

面对当前我国股市的低迷,各方都在探讨出路何在.有些学者认为基于中国股市现状和特殊性,价值投资并不适用.本文从理论和实证两方面,论证得出价值投资非但不是不适合中国股市,而且还是将来引导中国股市健康发展的趋势所在,在我国广大投资者中尽快建立起价值投资的理念,让以研究为主导的价值投资来引导整个市场,是解决中国股市问题的关键.     

Periodically collapsing Evans bubbles and stock-price volatility

This paper analyzes stock-price volatility in the presence of periodically collapsing Evans bubbles. We derive a volatility formula that establishes a link between the bubble component and stock-price volatility. We demonstrate how to fit the volatility equation to stock-market data.     

Time varying CAPM betas and banking sector risk

This paper employs the [Bai and Perron, 1998] and [Bai and Perron, 2003] structural break methodology to investigate whether the CAPM betas for banking sector stocks are time invariant. I find evidence for three large structural shifts in my monthly (1941.02-2008.01) sample. The third break corresponds with a decline in the perceived riskiness of banking stocks in the period starting in 2000.04. The banking sector was thus priced to be less risky during the period associated with rising leverage and financial sector risk.     

"中国之谜":基于货币存贷差转换视角的解释

中国之谜的实质是货币供给长期快速增长下物价水平何以能保持稳定。不同历史时期引起该现象的主导原因不同,在我国目前宏观经济背景下,巨额存贷差的存在及快速提高一方面推动了M2的高增长率,另一方面又由于绝大部分存差的不可动用性质,使得该部分货币没能作用于实体经济,进而对物价没有产生影响,因此,巨额存差在很大程度上是目前中国之谜的主导原因。     

基于BP神经网络的我国M2/GDP预测与对策

本文计算了1993年至2005年我国M2/GDP,发现该数据总体呈上升趋势,这一定程度上反映了我国体制上的深层次问题。另外,本文运用带有动量项和自适应学习率的BP神经网络方法预测出我国2006年的M2/GDP是1.6386左右,并提出了一些相应的政策建议。     

Realized volatility transmission: The role of jumps and leverage effects

This paper is the first to employ a multivariate extension of the LHAR–CJ model for realized volatility of Corsi and Renó (2012) considering continuous and jump volatility components and leverage effects. The model is applied to financial (S&P 500), commodity (WTI crude oil) and forex (US$/EUR) intraday futures data and allows new insights in the transmission mechanisms among these markets. Besides significant leverage effects, we find that the jump components of all considered assets do not contain incremental information for the one-step ahead realized volatility. The volatility of S&P 500 and US$/EUR exchange rate futures exhibits significant spillovers to the realized volatility of WTI. Moreover, decreasing equity prices appear to increase volatility in other markets, while strengthening of the US$ seems to calm down the crude oil market.     

基于不同视角对中国当前流动性过剩问题的分析

近年来,我国的货币供给量持续增长,已大大超过GDP的增长速度,商业银行体系内的存贷差日益扩大,这些因素导致了我国经济体系内\"流动性过剩\"的问题凸显.而今年3月,\"流动性过剩\"问题首次进入政府工作报告,成为今后国家宏观调控的一个重要目标.本文从两个不同却又紧密联系的角度,即经济体系中货币化比率的高企和商业银行存贷差的持续扩大出发,对目前我国市场体系内流动性状况进行分析和探讨.     

从新疆M2/GDP畸高谈区域金融结构和金融资源配置效率

新疆M2/GDP比例近二十年持续高于全国平均水平,并且明显高于部分东部发达省份,造成这一现象的深层次原因是新疆区域金融结构失衡以及区域金融资源配置效率不足。