Demographic change and income tax revenues – results from a large microsimulation model for Germany

Similarly to many other European countries, Germany has experienced a considerable demographic shift since the 1970s: higher life expectancy and diminishing birth rates, only partly balanced by immigration, have led to an altered population structure with an increasing share of elderly people. In the next decades, population aging in Germany will accelerate and also induce a decline of the total population. These demographic changes can be expected to have a profound impact on the governmental budget. While shifts in public expenditures have been forecasted regularly since 2005, the revenue side has received less attention to date. We study the long-term (2015–2060) shifts in income tax revenues induced by demographic change. Our aim is to quantify possible fiscal effects of demographic change using microsimulation and to identify elements of the income tax code particularly affected. We find the expected demographic changes to have a clear negative impact on income tax revenues. Population aging increases the impact of various deductibility rules on total income tax revenues, in particular the impact of the deductibility of old-age and health insurance provisions. The impact of the deductibility of exceptional expenses such as expenses for caregiving also increases, but remains small overall. Due to expected increases in real incomes, however, demographic change does not imply an absolute drop in income tax revenues in the next decades.     

Demographic Change and Asian Dynamics: Social and Political Implications

This article describes the demographic change and its social and political implications in East and South-East Asia with a trajectory up to 2050. It selectively touches on inequalities, migration, social policy, and international security. In the course of this exercise, I present two hypotheses: one relating to the formation of the new middle class, and the other relating to the geriatric peace argument. The first hypothesis posits that when the growing inequalities in terms of per capita income aggravate the sense of happiness among the low- and middle-income strata as contrasted to high-income strata, the formation of a new middle class becomes more difficult. The second hypothesis posits that when the aging population carries a large demographic weight, it tends to be transformed into strong political voice, which is, in turn, translated into larger government spending on social policy items often accompanied by a likely decline in the defense expenditure budget. These hypotheses paint a provocative picture of East and South-East Asia in the next four decades, especially in the wake of the deepening economic difficulties prevailing over the entire globe. I present these hypotheses for further conceptual elaboration and empirical analysis.     

中国与印度人口转变的经济效应——基于1960-2010年时间序列数据的实证分析

使用19个亚洲国家、1960-2010年的面板数据,比较了印度和中国人口转变的过程及所带来的经济增长,预测了中印两国人口发展趋势及对经济增长的贡献。样本期内,中国人口转变因素解释了人均GDP增长的35.3%,而印度为29.1%,态势上,印度人口转变对经济增长的贡献一直平稳上升;而中国经历了20世纪80年代的高点之后开始下降;未来发展趋势上,中国人口转变带来的人口红利会在本世纪30年代变为负数;而印度在2050年前一直维持较大的正值。     

Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia

Trade openness, high savings rates, human capital accumulation, and macroeconomic policy only accounted for part of the 1965–1990 growth performance in East Asia. Subsequently, demographic change was shown to be a missing factor in explaining the East Asian growth premium. Since 1990, East Asia has undertaken major economic reforms in response to financial crises and other factors. We reexamine the role of the demographic transition in contributing to cross-country differences in economic growth through to 2005, with a particular focus on East Asia. We highlight the need for policy to offset potential negative effects of aging populations in the future.     

Aging, Asset Markets, and Asset Returns: A View From Europe to Asia

The extent of the demographic changes is dramatic especially in some Asian and European countries. This paper investigates the effect of aging on global asset markets and asset returns, focusing on markets for productive capital, and especially on interactions between European and Asian economic development. Aging has complex effects on the markets for real capital. If elderly people save less than younger people, interest rates will increase. At the same time, however, the younger generation becomes smaller, which reduces the demand for new investment. The equilibrium effect is thus uncertain. Our multicountry computational equilibrium model delivers a subtle picture: there will be some decline in the return from productive capital, but it is relatively small. We find noticeable interaction effects between labor market and pension reforms in Europe on the one hand, and the demographic and economic developments in Asia, especially India and China, on the other hand.     

AGING AND SAVING IN ASIA

In this paper, I analyse the impact of population aging on saving in Asia (with emphasis on Japan and China) and obtain the following findings: population aging will lead to declines in household, private, government and national saving rates, but to the extent that population aging is accompanied by absolute declines in population, investment rates will also decline. Moreover, countries always have the option of borrowing from abroad because all countries, even within the Asian region, will presumably not show simultaneous declines in saving. Therefore, the decline in saving caused by population aging will not necessarily spell disaster.     

人口红利转变、老龄化与提高退休年龄

中国人口生育水平的下降和平均预期寿命的延长,导致原来的人口红利出现了转变的趋势,也造成了老龄化负担的加剧。在这种情况下,实行提高退休年龄的政策具备了某种可能性,因为人口红利的逐渐消失和劳动力供求的逆转可能成为提高退休年龄的推力,而养老金制度的老龄化危机则成为提高退休年龄的拉力。在现实条件下,考虑这一政策对城镇就业的冲击以及劳动力异质性的影响,应该实施渐进缓慢、逐步提高退休年龄的政策。     

中西合璧的老人支持体系——香港所追求的全面照顾模式

以老人照顾体系发展的四个阶段,回顾香港过去五十年来从家庭维系传统孝亲价值,政府角色对照顾责任的厘清,传统家庭对机构照料的忌讳,到近年来从"在社区照顾"发展至"就地养老"的概念;从人口结构的变化、社会经济发展的变迁以及政府角色与责任的不同作了探讨剖析。说明"全面照顾模式"如何结合上述价值与社会体系背景,将政府与民间的各层面力量融入成为全方位、多面向与多选项的照顾体系,说明了对于政策制定者、服务提供者以及社区工作者这又意味着什么样的挑战。     

Gender gap,capital accumulation and the demographic transition

This paper focuses on explaining the demographic transition and some of the broad patterns that are associated with it. We present an endogenous growth model that incorporates altruism and son preference within the family as well as gender wage gap and gender wage discrimination in the labour market. We show that with the accumulation of physical capital and human capital, the output share of mental labour increases and the gender wage gap narrows. In the early stages of economic development, gender discrimination is becoming prevalent and the substitution effect of capital accumulation, which raises the cost of child rearing, is dominated by the income effect, so the growth rate of population increases with income. When the degree of gender wage discrimination starts to decline, the increased cost of child rearing induces families to invest more in the human capital of children and the growth rate of the population falls. The quantitative analysis shows that gender wage discrimination is indeed an important contributor to the demographic transition.     

人口结构变化与中国贸易顺差:理论与实证研究

文章首先通过构建一个开放经济三期世代交替模型讨论了人口结构变化对中国经常账户余额的影响。理论研究发现,少儿抚养系数的下降会引起储蓄率相对于投资率上升从而形成经常账户盈余,人口老龄化会降低储蓄率从而对经常账户余额产生负向影响。文章然后运用中国1993-2009年省级面板数据进行了实证分析,经验结论与理论模型预测一致,人口结构变化能够解释中国经常账户余额变化的近45%。在控制了其他解释变量后,人口年龄结构变量对经常账户的影响依然显著。文章的估计结果对替代性的经常账户余额指标、人口年龄结构变量的选取以及模型的动态设定也非常稳健。     

中国人口红利评价

人口红利出现并被有效利用是中国经济发展的重要因素。及时地掌握人口红利的发展态势对于经济增长具有重要意义。人口红利在国家之间、区域之间、省与省之间表现得不平衡,差异显著。中国抚养负担低的比较优势终将消失。2039年,中国将发生由人口红利向人口负债的重要转变。当前,最紧要的是,要及时认识到人口年龄结构的转变趋势,加大教育和健康投资,通过提高人口质量来应对人口红利日益衰微的趋势。     

Demographic change and long‐term growth in China: Past developments and the future challenge of aging

This paper explores the influence of demographic changes, particularly the sharp decline in fertility and the evolution of the population age structure, on economic development in China. A general equilibrium overlapping generations model with endogenous decisions on fertility, educational investment, and factor accumulation is employed for our analysis. The family support provided by children to the elderly, which is a component of traditional culture in Chinese society, is also considered. We find that technological changes matter most for growth. Demographic changes, on average, account for approximately 4% of the growth in China, while the effect is negative in the pre‐1980 period. With an extension to include population aging, we find that aging is not necessarily adverse to growth. This finding reflects the fact that a longer life expectancy requires more savings and makes educational investment in children more attractive, which accelerates physical capital and human capital accumulation. However, if the social norm of family support for aging parents is strict, aging will significantly increase the children's burden and crowd out physical and human capital accumulation.     

人口转型的经济学解释

本文首先介绍了人口转型的含义及各种解释,然后详细讨论了基于经济学框架的各种人口转型理论,包括人口转型过程中的生育率下降、死亡率下降、人口的年龄结构变化等现象,以及人力资本的形成、人口的人力资本构成、技术进步等因素对于这些现象的解释作用,最后分别从人口学和经济学的角度分析现有的各种人口转型理论的局限性,同时指明未来研究的可能方向。     

Demographic trends and international capital flows in an integrated world

This paper examines the impact of projected demographic trends on international capital flows. The analysis builds upon a ten-region overlapping generations' model of the world economy where capital is mobile across regions. Results show that, over the first half of the century, emerging regions will finance the demand of capital coming from the developed world where population aging is relatively advanced. In particular, the findings suggest that in the coming decades China will be the world's main creditor region. However, in the second half of the century, India will take over this leading position because of the predicted decline in the Chinese labor force. An additional analysis demonstrates that the economic consequences of demographic changes depend on the degree of capital market integration between regions.     

Population age structure and asset returns: an empirical investigation

"This paper investigates the association between population age structure, particularly the share of the population in the 'prime saving years' 45-60, and the returns on stocks and bonds. The paper is motivated by the claim that the aging of the 'Baby Boom' cohort in the United States is a key factor in explaining the recent rise in asset values. It also addresses the associated claim that asset prices will decline when this large cohort reaches retirement age and begins to reduce its asset holdings. This paper begins by considering household age-asset accumulation profiles. Data from the Survey of Consumer Finances suggest that while cross-sectional age-wealth profiles peak for households in their early 60s, cohort data on the asset ownership of the same households show a much less pronounced peak.... The paper then considers the historical relationship between demographic structure and real returns on Treasury bills, long-term government bonds, and corporate stock. The results do not suggest any robust relationship between demographic structure and asset returns.... The paper concludes by discussing factors such as international capital flows and forward-looking behavior on the part of market participants that could weaken the relationship between age structure and asset returns in a single nation."     

The Inherited Inequality: How Demographic Aging and Pension Reforms can Change the Intergenerational Transmission of Wealth

The role of inherited wealth in modern economies has increasingly come under scrutiny. This study presents one of the first attempts to shed light on how demographic aging could shape this role. It shows that, in the absence of retirement annuities, or for a given level of annuitization, both increasing longevity and decreasing fertility should reduce the inherited share of total wealth in a given economy. Thus, aging is not likely to explain a recent surge in this share in some advanced economies. Shrinking retirement annuities, however, could offset and potentially reverse these effects. The paper also shows that individual bequests will be more unequally distributed if aging is driven by a drop in fertility. In comparison, the effect of increasing longevity on their distribution is non‐monotonic.     

The mature region building a practical model for the transition to the sustainable society

The demographic shift from the northeast to the “sunbelt” has resource implications that will span several decades. Early in the 21st century, today's “boom” regions will be significantly affected by declining petro-energy and an aging population and infrastructure. The northeast is now in an analogous situation.The transition to the sustainable society is unlikely to occur in the sunbelt while the boom is on, but the need for sustainability is immediate in the northeast. For the mature industrial states, economic survival is tied to the level of self-sufficiency they can achieve in the 1980s and 1990s. The efforts toward greater regional sustainability can offer practical models to regions yet to encounter cyclical decline. The transition to the sustainable society will be built on the aggregated efforts of regions to bring their unique circumstances into balance.New England is presented as the case study of a mature region, no longer growing, but embarking in measurable ways on a path toward regional sustainability. The model focuses on the recapture of resources that have traditionally sustained the region—the landscape, the 19th century settlement pattern, and the educational establishment.The inquiry is directed to practical efforts now being made by the private sector to readapt these traditional resources and increase New England's self-sufficiency. The paper will examine the significance of New England private sector endeavors, for effects on other regions, demonstration value and transferability, and conditions that merit continuing investigation as models for the transition to the sustainable society.     

我国人口结构变化、资本偏向型技术进步与劳动收入份额演变——基于1990—2017省际面板数据的研究

在我国老龄化程度加深及出生率下降的背景下,从CES生产函数出发,构建理论模型,试图从人口结构、技术进步偏向角度探索我国劳动收入份额的演变机制。并通过我国1990-2017年省级层面数据的研究,表明我国要素间是互补的,技术进步偏向资本,我国人口结构的变化——老年抚养比上升及少儿抚养比下降对我国劳动收入份额产生了负面的影响。同时,我国技术进步的资本偏向性特征,降低了我国劳动收入份额。在控制了其他因素、分区域及剔除异常值进行检验后,结果仍然显著。     

Population Ageing and Social Security in Asia

Asian countries are at different stages of demographic transition. While Central and South Asian countries are relatively young and will remain so for some time, East and Southeast Asia are expected to age at an unprecedented rate in the next few decades. Japan has reached the future first. Other nations, such as China, are still young but ageing faster than many advanced economies, including Australia and the USA. This demographic shift has considerable implications for the development of social policy. Here too, countries differ widely. This paper sets the context for the rest of the volume. The focus is mostly on countries in East and Southeast Asia, but it includes contrasting comparisons to key regional countries such as India and Australia. First, the paper presents the context: the demographic, urbanization, and social trends facing Asia. Second, it tackles the allocation of resources for the elderly, in particular, by summarizing approaches to two areas of social policy most pertinent to population ageing: retirement income and health care.     

人口统计数据系统误差的检验

人口统计数据的系统误差,常常表现在特定的年龄尾数上数据观测值对真值的偏离。讨论了现行的人口年龄数据质量检验方法,指出了存在的问题,提出了可使用人口函数年龄变动的符号分布来检验人口数据是否存在系统误差,并用实际数据作了验证。经过比较,这种新的检验方法比以往的方法更有效。