Access to finance,working capital management and company value: Evidences from Brazilian companies listed on BM&FBOVESPA

In this research, we have analyzed the impact of financial leverage on the relationship between working capital and company value and how financial constraints on access to financing affect this relationship. In addition, we have analyzed the relationship between working capital and company value. Using a sample of Brazilian public companies listed on BM&FBOVESPA from 1995 through 2009, we found evidence for the following conclusions: an extra Real (R$) of investment in working capital is significantly less worth, on average, than an extra Real (R$) of investment in cash; and, on average, increasing the level of working capital at the beginning of a fiscal year reduces company value.     

Do futures‐based strategies enhance dynamic portfolio insurance?

In this paper we investigate the relative performance of two approaches to dynamic portfolio insurance: the synthetic put and the Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI). The investigation is conducted on the Australian market, over a sample period of 59 non‐overlapping quarters from December 1987 to December 2002. Its main contribution is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the two approaches under different market conditions, and the testing of ex ante information as an input into the trading program. The major finding is that the futures‐based implementation of both synthetic put and the CPPI approach is robust to both tranquil and turbulent market conditions in preserving the desired floor. The fact that this conclusion includes the case of employing implied volatility (obtained from the options market) is highly encouraging as it suggests high implementability of the strategy. Notably, the risk‐return tradeoff shows that portfolio insurance using this volatility measure yields a return that is 64 basis points over the risk free investment. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:591–608, 2004     

Avoiding toxic assets and ensuring bank stability: English commercial bank investments, 1880–1910

New estimates are made of the relative importance of investments within the banks' assets structure, of the significance of bank investments in the market as a whole, of the composition of those investments, and of how those changed in a period that experienced a significant increase in the scale, liquidity and diversity in Britain's organised secondary capital markets. Investment holdings in the total market and amongst insurance companies are used as benchmarks. One main finding is that there was a great deal of variation in the size of bank investments relative to total assets, with no evidence of a ‘norm’ investments ratio. Another finding is that although there is some evidence of greater diversity over time, conservatism – and especially the continued heavy reliance on public sector securities – is more evident. Overall, there was a commitment to a high liquidity, risk-averse approach to portfolio management which contributed to bank stability and limited the financing of the private sector.     

Impact investing and sustainable market transformations: The role of venture capital funds

Impact investors often know their financial return on investments, but are less certain about their impact. This article frames impact as their contribution to sustainable market transformation. A sustainable market transformation consists of inception, first movers, critical mass, and institutionalization phases. Given the nature of such transformations, the impact is effectuated at different moments and toward various market actors. Based on an exploratory research design with semi-structured expert interviews, this article aims to create an overview of the roles of impact venture capital funds in sustainable market transformations. The results suggest that the view that the capitalization of start-ups is the only impact of impact investors is a misconception. The needs of companies with sustainability value propositions change over time and consequently impact investors perform various roles. For example, exiting an investment while upholding social and environmental objectives communicates to mainstream business that the start-up is ready to create a greater impact. Further, impact investors fulfill external roles that change the perspectives of institutional actors toward sustainable investments. Based on an overview of the different roles that impact investors fill, this article proposes a future research agenda to strengthen our knowledge about the impact return of investments.     

Market timing of CTAs: An examination of systematic CTAs vs. discretionary CTAs

This study uses a set of return‐based factors to explore market (return and volatility) timing ability of commodity trading advisors (CTAs). Unlike previous research, we use return‐based factors that are related to the futures markets in which most CTAs trade. This leads to higher explanatory power for our multifactor model. Our approach allows us to test for the presence of market timing in multiple markets. Accordingly, we are able to identify the markets in which CTAs may have market timing ability. We find that systematic CTAs are generally more skilled at market timing than discretionary CTAs, with the latter having slightly better overall risk‐adjusted performance during our study period: January 1994 to December 2004. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:1067–1099, 2009     

Product Differentiation,Industry Concentration and Market Share Turbulence

Building on the current theory of industrial concentration, we analyze the relation between market size and product differentiation, and show how product differentiation impacts market share turbulence. We first propose that in markets where vertical product differentiation dominates, firms will have an incentive to escalate investment in advertising and/or R&D as market size increases. Secondly, such (firm‐specific) investments will make competitive advantage more sustainable as the firm is less imitable. This will not be the case if the market is primarily characterized by homogeneous products or horizontal product differentiation. Our predictions are tested using an original EU dataset for 1987 and 1997. Our results strongly support our predictions – the degree of market share turbulence increases with market size. However, this relation is weakened by competitive investment in advertising and R&D.     

Network structure analysis of the Brazilian interbank market

In this paper, we provide a detailed analysis of the roles financial institutions play within the Brazilian interbank market using a network-based approach. We present a novel methodology to assess how compliant networks are to being perfect core-periphery structures. The approach is flexible, allowing for the identification of multiple cores in networks. We verify that the interbank network presents a high disassortative mixing pattern, suggesting preferential attachment of highly connected financial institutions to others with few connections. We use the clustering coefficient to assess the substitutability of financial institutions. We find that large banking institutions are counterparties that are easily substitutable in normal times. We uncover that the rich-club effect is strongly present in the community comprising the large banking institutions, as they normally form near-clique structures. Since they play the role of liquidity providers in the interbank market, this interconnectedness effectively endows the network with robustness, as participants that are with liquidity issues can easily substitute counterparties that are liquidity suppliers. This substitutability will likely vanish during periods of stress, increasing systemic risk and the likelihood of cascade failures.     

Retailing and the period leading up to the Great Recession: a model and a 25-year financial ratio analysis of US retailing

Today, more than ever, retailers need to analyze the key solvency (liquidity) and efficiency financial ratio measures that affect how well their firms perform and to engage in long-term activities that will lead to improved results. Clearly, the recent ‘Great Recession’ has had a significant negative impact on retailers worldwide. Yet, an important question remains largely answered: Was the retail industry a major contributor to the events leading up to the economic crisis or was it an affected bystander shaken by the recession? This paper addresses the question for US retailing, the largest retail economy in the world. Although there has been considerable research on some aspects of the performance of the industry and individual firms, no prior studies exist that comprehensively examine the financial ratio performance of the totality of US retailing over time. Here, the financial performance of US retailers in 54 different sectors is analyzed for the 1982–2007 period using a model and data derived from Dun & Bradstreet's annual Industry Norms & Key Business Ratios. Results show that for many financial measures – such as the current ratio, liabilities to net worth, return on sales (profit margin), return on assets, financial leverage, and return on net worth – US retailing's financial performance has been in a steady decline for decades. The model introduced here is largely validated.     

股权流动性分裂的八大危害--中国资本市场为什么必须进行全流通变革

从结构和功能上看,中国资本市场长期以来都处在不正常状态.这种不正常状态最根本的制度性原因是股权的流动性分裂.从现实看,股权流动性分裂为中国资本市场带来了八大危害,从而严重损害了中国资本市场风险与收益之间的匹配机制,客观上使流通股股东与非流通股股东处在不平等的状态.为此,要使中国资本市场有一个坚实、平等的制度基础,要使中国资本市场有一个蓬勃发展的未来,惟一的出路是必须进行股权的流动性变革,以形成一个利益机制一致的股权结构.     

Liquidity and stock returns in emerging equity markets

Using data for 27 emerging equity markets for the period January 1992 through December 1999, we document the behavior of liquidity in emerging markets. We find that stock returns in emerging countries are positively correlated with aggregate market liquidity as measured by turnover ratio, trading value and the turnover–volatility multiple. The results hold in both cross-sectional and time-series analyses, and are quite robust even after we control for world market beta, market capitalization and price-to-book ratio. The positive correlation between stock returns and market liquidity in a time-series analysis is consistent with the findings in developed markets. However, the positive correlation in a cross-sectional analysis appears to be at odds with market microstructure theory that has been empirically supported by studies on developed markets. Our findings regarding the cross-sectional relation between stock returns and liquidity is consistent with the view that emerging equity markets have a lower degree of integration with the global economy.     

Strategic intent and performance: The role of resource allocation decisions

The notion that a firm's strategic intent can affect its performance through managerial actions has become prominent in the organization literature. In this research, we propose that strategic aggressive firms will foster decisions that favor holding low levels of slack and low levels of R&D investments, resulting in increased firm ROI, and that a firm's risk preference will moderate the indirect effect of strategic intent on performance. Findings from moderated mediation analyses on data from 130 firms in manufacturing industries support our hypotheses. Specifically, the indirect effect of a firm's strategic intent on a firm's performance is moderated by its risk aversion, such that when risk aversion is high, the indirect effect of strategic intent on performance through slack is strengthened. Similarly, the indirect effect of strategic intent on firm performance through R&D investments is strengthened, when risk aversion is high.     

Do Stock Investors Value Corporate Sustainability? Evidence from an Event Study

This paper analyzes the impacts of index inclusions and exclusions on corporate sustainable firms by studying a sample of US stocks that are added to or deleted from the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index over the period 2002?C2008. The impacts are measured in terms of stock return, risk and liquidity. We cannot find any strong evidence that announcement per se has any significant impact on stock return and risk. However, on the day of change, index inclusion (exclusion) stocks experience a significant but temporary increase (decrease) in stock return. Liquidity deteriorates after the announcement day and bounces back significantly near the day of change. Systematic risk shows little change after announce- ments. But, idiosyncratic risk is higher after announcements. The overall results support Harris and Eitan??s (The Journal of Finance 41(4), 815?C829, 1986) price pressure hypothesis, which posits that event announcement does not carry information and any shift in demand (and hence the corresponding price change and liquidity change) is temporary.     

Assessing marketing risk

A model for assessing the risks specific to a marketing strategy is developed and applied to data generated by executive decisions made in the Markstrat environment. The specific risks of a marketing strategy are those associated with changes in primary demand and market share. The riskiness and profitability of different strategies are assessed statistically. Primary-demand risk and return on investments are found to be positively correlated. More volatile, risky, market segments yield higher average returns. The strong temptation to harvest market share is isolated in the positive correlation between harvesting risk and rate of return. The pressure not to build long-term positions is found in the high negative correlation between building risk and return on investments. Overall, the model successfully explains risk-taking behavior in the Markstrat environment, and offers theoretical direction for future research in the real world.     

Returns on ADRs and arbitrage in emerging markets

In this paper we compare the distributions of ADR returns and the returns of the locally traded shares between Chile and Argentina. This comparison is interesting because both countries are emerging economies with a similar free market orientation and the trading hours in both countries virtually coincide with the trading hours in New York. Argentina and Chile differ, however, in two important aspects: During our sample period: (1) The Argentinean market was completely under a fixed-exchange rate system, while Chile maintained a flexible exchange rate regime; and (2) Argentina did not impose any restrictions on foreign investments, while Chile did. We find that the return distributions of the Chilean ADRs are significantly different from the distributions of the returns on the respective underlying Chilean shares. While the mean returns are the same, the return's S.D. are significantly different. In contrast, the hypothesis that the distributions of the returns on the Argentinean ADRs and the returns on their respective underlying shares are the same cannot be rejected. We then use a threshold model to estimate the transaction costs of trading the ADRs and the locally traded shares. We find that the transaction costs that must be added to the returns spread before arbitrage is possible were between 100 and 200 basis points for Chilean ADRs. It was between 66 and 165 basis points for the Argentinean ADRs. The daily return spread reversion caused by arbitrage activities was estimated to be approximately 30% for Chilean ADRs and 40% for Argentinean ADRs. Finally, we cannot reject the hypothesis that low liquidity was a major factor in the cost difference between the two countries.     

Testing the liquidity preference hypothesis using survey forecasts

We evaluate the liquidity preference hypothesis (LPH) for the term structure of interest rates in a different way. Instead of using bond returns as traditional approaches, we use interest rate surveys with market expectations in order to evaluate LPH. This approach allows us to disentangle the effect of the changes in interest rate expectations from the liquidity premium. We found empirical support for the LPH with Brazilian data using both traditional and survey methods. However, the evaluation with interest rate surveys gives a higher statistical confidence level than the traditional approach when we perform tests for term premium monotonicity.     

Carry Trade Returns with Support Vector Machines

This paper proposes a novel approach to directional forecasts for carry trade strategies based on support vector machines (SVMs), a learning algorithm that delivers extremely promising results. Building on recent findings in the literature on carry trade, we condition the SVM on indicators of uncertainty and risk. We show that this provides a dramatic performance improvement in strategy, particularly during periods of financial distress such as the recent financial crises. Disentangling the measures of risk, we show that conditioning the SVM on measures of liquidity risk rather than on market volatility yields the best performance.     

A generalized theoretical modelling approach for the assessment of economic-capital under asset market liquidity risk constraints

This paper proposes a concrete theoretical foundation and a new modelling framework that attempts to tackle the issue of market/liquidity risk and economic-capital estimation at a portfolio level by combining two mutual asset market/liquidity risk models. In essence, this study extends research literature related to the assessment of the asset market/liquidity risk by providing a generalized theoretical modelling underpinning that handle, from the same perspective, market and liquidity risks jointly and integrate both risks into a portfolio setting without a commensurate increase of statistical postulations. As such, we argue that market and liquidity risk components are correlated in most cases and can be integrated into one single market/liquidity framework that consists of two interrelated sub-components. The first component is attributed to the impact of adverse price movements and is modelled based on the concept of liquidity-adjusted value-at-risk framework, while the second component focuses on the risk of variation in transactions costs due to the bid-ask spreads and it attempts to measure the likelihood that it will cost more than expected to liquidate the asset position. As such, the model comprises a new approach to contemplating the impact of time-varying volatility of the bid-ask spread and its upshot on the overall asset market/liquidity risk. The modelling framework can be constructive for financial service industries in emerging-economies and particularly in reinforcing rational economic-capital allocation in light of the aftermaths of the sub-prime financial crisis.     

Ex-dividend day price behavior and liquidity in a tax-free emerging market

This paper investigates the effect of liquidity on the ex-dividend day price premium. It is well documented that prices drop less than the dividend amount on the ex-day; this market inefficiency is generally attributed to the tax-induced clientele effect and various structural frictions. We show that, even in a tax-free market characterized by the presence of large block holders and the absence of the usual microstructure impediments, abnormal returns persist. Using a newly defined free-float adjusted measure of market fluidity, we find that liquidity is economically and statistically significant in the determination of the ex-dividend day price anomaly, indicating that trading restrictions can partially explain the ex-dividend return puzzle.     

Turnover and return in global stock markets

I study how growth affects liquidity of global stock exchanges and how liquidity determines cross-sectional returns on those stock exchange index portfolios. I measure portfolio liquidity by turnover ratio computed as value of shares traded over the market capitalization. I obtain data from FIBV, an association of global stock exchanges. In a multiple regression model for turnover ratio, I find age, size, type of exchange, competition for order flow, and growth rate to be significant determinants of portfolio liquidity; however, exchange- and time-specific effects are more appropriate for modeling portfolio liquidity. The time effects yield to three distinct regimes, while the exchange-specific effects are surrogates for the legal systems, English common law, and Civil laws of the countries. I estimate the parameters of a multiple regression model in a two-stage GLS framework in which index return is a function of turnover. The GLS method is preferable since a turnover ratio may have a non-stationary, random component. The significant determinants of index return are turnover and volatility, although some of the volatility effect may be a spillover from a January effect. Investors expect higher return from high turnover markets. However, the positive turnover expected return relation is true only in emerging markets; in developed markets expected return is a function of volatility. This result confirms existing empirical evidence that high turnover stock portfolios generate superior returns and further the sources and pricing of risk in emerging and developed markets are different.     

权证发行对标的股票价格风险影响的实证研究

研究权证发行对标的证券价格风险的影响,对研究资本市场的有效性及权证定价等方面具有重要的意义。目前我国已经发行的备兑权证,运用资本资产定价模型(CAPM)和GARCH-M模型,探讨权证的发行时正股的无风险报酬、系统性风险(Beta)和总风险(报酬率波动性)是否有显著影响。实证结果表明,无论是认购权证、认沽权证,还是蝶式权证的发行对正股的无风险报酬、系统性风险的影响基本上均不显著,但对半数以上发行权证的股票的总风险有显著影响。抑制权证市场的投机性,发挥其本身应发挥的价格发现功能、促进股票的流动性、降低股价波动性等的功能,就必须从风险相互对冲的角度,循序渐进地大力发展权证等衍生产品的规模,促进衍生品市场健康、有序地发展。