Liquidity default,liquidity management and smooth dividends policy

Our article models liquidity financing constraints with the real options framework. By conducting a comprehensive investigation of the effects of shocks to liquidity constraints on the firm’s optimal investment, financing and dividend policies, our model highlights the importance of liquidity management and extends the liquidity management approach to hedge liquidity default risk. We find that being concerned about liquidity default risk will significantly change a firm’s behaviours, including those related to investment and the optimal capital structure. A firm that is concerned about its liquidity default risk will become more cautious: it will choose to delay investment and have higher leverage when internal liquidity is very low, but choose earlier investment and lower leverage when liquidity is high enough. The dividends policy can alleviate risks from both the external market and internal project volatility and provides an alternative explanation for the ‘smooth dividends policy puzzle’ commonly reported in empirical research.     

Climate Policy with Tied Hands: Optimal Resource Taxation Under Implementation Lags

In this paper we present a Stackelberg differential game to study the dynamic interaction between a polluting firm and a regulator who sets pollution limits overtime. At each time, the firm settles emissions taking into account the fine for non-compliance with the pollution limit, and balances current costs of investments in a capital stock which allows for future emission reductions. We derive two main results. First, we show that the optimal pollution limit decreases as the capital stock increases, while both emissions and the level of non-compliance decrease. Second, we find that offering fine discounts in exchange for firm’s capital investment is socially desirable. We numerically obtain the optimal value of such discount, which crucially depends on the severity of the fine. In the limiting scenario with a very large severity of the fine, the optimal discount implies that no penalties are levied, since the firm shows adequate adaptation progress through capital investment.     

The effects of future financing constraints on capital accumulation: Some new results on the constrained investment problem

In this paper, we study the effects of future constraints on current investment decisions. Unlike the standard literature on this optimizing problem, we present a model in which firms are neither always constrained nor always unconstrained. We are concerned with those cases where a firm is free from constraints at the current time but expects to face an upper bound at some later date. Using the ‘no arbitrage principle’ in the constrained scenario, we show how to explicitly calculate the optimal investment path switching between regimes. The analytical result shows that the effects of future financing constraints are included in the market value of the firm, and thus are captured by marginal q.     

CEO的财务经历有利于缓解企业融资约束吗*

CEO的财务经历有利于其做出合理的融资决策和投资决策,从而有助于降低企业融资约束。以2000—2013年沪深A股上市公司作为研究对象,本文实证检验结果证明了笔者的这一假设。该结论在控制内生性以及采用其他指标衡量融资约束等稳健性检验之后仍然成立。进一步检验结果表明,在外部融资条件较差时,CEO财务经历对于缓解融资约束的作用更为显著;同时,CEO财务经历有助于企业提高投资绩效。这表明了具有财务经历的CEO通过提高企业外部融资能力和投资决策的合理性,从而缓解企业融资约束。本文在丰富高阶梯队理论和融资约束领域文献的同时,对于上市公司制定科学合理的CEO聘任决策以及缓解融资约束等方面有重要的启示。     

Government Expenditure Financing in a Two‐Sector Cash‐In‐Advance Model of Endogenous Growth

We show that an expansion in the government size could be desirable from the viewpoint of the economy's long‐run growth, wherein factor intensity between the sectors, the mode of public spending financing, and the form of the cash‐in‐advance (CIA) constraint are crucial. We also show that when real balances are required only for consumption purchases, money financing is equivalent to consumption tax financing, but is not equivalent to income tax financing. If both consumption and gross investment are liquidity‐constrained, then the three financing methods are mutually not equivalent. The optimal financing scheme has the following features: (1) when the CIA constraint applies only to consumption purchases, any combination of the money growth rate and the consumption tax rate that satisfies the government budget constraint constitutes an optimal financing mix; (2) when the CIA constraint applies to both consumption and investment purchases, consumption tax financing only is optimal.     

Import competition,investment finance,and cumulative decline in the US steel industry, 1962–1981

This paper analyses the effects of import competition on the financing of investment in the US steel industry. Model simulations show that import penetration reduced average annual investment spending by about one-quarter over the period 1962–81, mostly as the result of a squeeze on profit margins which constrained internal finance. Assuming that this reduction is investment caused productivity growth to slow down, the benefits of allowing imports for steel consumers are estimated to have been relatively small in the long run. The analysis supports the concept of cumulative causation in competitiveness due to constraints on investment financing.     

The impact of the 2008 German corporate tax reform: A dynamic CGE analysis

In this paper we develop the dynamic CGE model, ifoMod, which is designed to analyse the impact of fundamental tax reforms and in particular capital income tax reforms for Germany. The model is in line with neoclassical growth theory and features all important behavioural interactions between the four major building blocks of an economy including the firm and household sector, the government and the rest of the world. We consider firms of different legal forms which all face an intertemporal investment problem, a financing problem w.r.t. the optimal choice of debt and equity financing as well as a factor input problem when deciding on the optimal amount of different skill types of labour employed. We show the impact of different types of taxes on the behavioural margins of firms and households. The conducted simulation shows the impact of the latest German corporate tax reform of 2008 on the German macroeconomic variables such as investments, GDP, consumption and household's welfare.     

Financing government investment and its implications for public capital: A small open economy perspective

Expenditure reductions played a key role in many small open economies during fiscal consolidation, with large declines in public investment. This led to a reduction in public capital stock and affected the competitiveness of these economies. After the sovereign debt crisis, the governments that consider increasing investment to replenish the public capital stock have limited fiscal space and have to avoid external imbalances. We show that using budget-neutral investment spending can generate long-term benefits of higher public capital stock while at the same time limiting negative consequences for the public finances and the trade balance. The best way of financing government investment, which preserves fiscal and trade balances, and increases welfare, is by reducing other government spending. The second-best is financing investment with value-added tax. Financing with debt worsens fiscal and trade balances, while using distortionary labour taxes reduces labour supply, increases wage costs and worsens the trade deficit in the short run.     

Long-run investment under uncertain demand

In the literature investigating the impact of uncertainty on short-run and long-run investment, most authors have used a log linear profit function. This functional form has been generally considered a reasonable approximation for a more general one and has the advantage of providing closed form solutions for both short-run investment rule and long-run rate of capital accumulation. In this paper, we consider the profit function for the case of a monopolistic firm facing a linear demand function with additive shocks. Under this assumption, analytical solutions, for both short-run investment rule and long-run rate of capital accumulation, are not available. We then 1) propose an analytical approximation of the short-run investment rule and 2) show how such approximation can be used in order to derive the corresponding i) steady-state distribution of the optimal stock of capital and ii) the long-run average rate of capital accumulation. Finally, we compare the long-run rates of capital accumulation calculated under both profit function specifications. We find that, within a plausible range of parameter values, the two rates are significantly different. Hence, we conclude that the choice of a log linear functional form has a non-trivial impact on the magnitude of the long run rate of capital accumulation.     

OPTIMAL IMMIGRATION POLICY: WHEN THE PUBLIC GOOD IS RIVAL*

In this model, we characterize optimal immigration and fiscal policies in the presence of a rival public good and heterogeneous discounting. Surprisingly, even if the government is benevolent towards natives only, it is optimal to keep borders open. Indeed, in the long run, patient natives hold the whole stock of capital, while impatient immigrants work. Moreover, since capital intensity is stationary, capital per native, consumption and the public good increase with the number of (immigrant) workers. This positive effect offsets the disutility deriving from the congestion of the public good. However, when we account for the costs associated with cultural heterogeneity, we find that it is optimal to regulate immigration inflows. We also analyze the long‐run sensitivity of the optimal policy mix with respect to the fundamentals.     

Pollution Abatement Investment When Environmental Regulation Is Uncertain

In a dynamic model of a risk-neutral competitive firm that can lower its pollution emissions per unit of output by building up abatement capital stock, we examine the effect of a higher pollution tax rate on abatement investment both under full certainty and when the timing or the size of the tax increase is uncertain. We show that a higher pollution tax encourages abatement investment if it does not exceed a certain threshold rate. However, akin to the Diamond-Mirrlees tax anomaly, it is possible that a higher pollution tax rate results in more pollution. The magnitude uncertainty discourages abatement investment, but at the time of the actual tax increase the abatement investment path may shift either upward or downward. On the other hand, when the timing is uncertain, the abatement investment path always jumps upward, thus suggesting that the effect of magnitude uncertainty on the optimal investment path may be more pronounced than that of timing uncertainty. Further, we show that the ad hoc practice of raising the discount rate to account for the uncertainty leads to underinvestment in abatement capital. We show how the size of this underinvestment bias varies with the future tax increase. Finally, we show that a credible threat to accelerate the tax increase can induce more abatement investment.     

On the Separability of Real and Financial Decisions

The financial manager faces two basic problems: first, the firm’s investment or capital budgeting decision, and second, the financing decision. Capital investment and financing decisions are typically analyzed independently. Capital budgeting criteria proceeds under the simplest possible assumption about financing, namely all-equity financing. The only link between investment and financing decisions is the cost of capital. The basic idea behind Modigliani and Miller’s famous proposition I is that in perfect markets, changes in capital structure do not affect value. As long as the total cash flow generated by the firm’s assets is unchanged by capital structure, value is independent of capital structure. This paper is the first attempt to prove that leverage affects the mathematical structures of the cash flow of financing, and that different mathematical structures of financing cash flows may change the total cash flows generated by the firm or the project, thus altering the value of the firm even in perfect markets. The purpose of this paper is to explore the validity of the separation rule through net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR) rules, as representatives of academic and business practice, and compare their results with simulations that will include the financial decision of the firm. A singular experiment proving that we can change the IRR or NPV of an investment modifying the financial structure cannot be used to affirm a universal statement, but it can be used to show that a theory is wrong.     

Public capital and imperfect competition

In this paper we consider a macroeconomic model in which public capital is a productive input and there is monopolistic competition in the product market. We analyze the effects of a permanent variation in public capital investment both in the short and in the long run. Finally, we show that the optimal provision of public capital under imperfect competition is higher than that associated with the first-best policy.     

Does Real Exchange Rate Depreciation Boost Capital Accumulation? An Intertemporal Analysis

This paper examines the investment‐enhancing effect of real exchange rate (RER) depreciation in a two‐sector small open economy model where a representative firm in the tradable sector maximises its discounted profit over an infinite planning period. In this framework, a one‐time, permanent, unanticipated depreciation in the RER leads to a higher steady‐state level of capital stock and investment. This consequently increases the optimal investment rate associated with an arbitrary level of capital stock as the saddle path shifts upwards. In the benchmark calibration, the investment‐enhancing effect of RER depreciation is sizeable. One per cent depreciation in the RER leads to an increase of 0.4444 per cent in the rate of capital accumulation.     

Financial constraints on investments: A three-pillar approach

Recent theoretical analyses demonstrate how informational asymmetries between financiers and investors may generate credit rationing and positive cost differentials between external and internal financing sources. The traditional empirical approach used to test for the presence of financing constraints at firm level is based on two pillars: a priori identification of relatively more financially constrained firms and econometric estimation of an investment demand function. This approach has been seriously questioned due to several methodological problems. This paper intends to amend it by adding a third pillar: the informational content of direct revelation through qualitative data. The paper estimates a reduced form investment equation following the Euler equation approach, and combines a priori information and direct qualitative information to consistently estimate for each firm the probability of being financially constrained. Our main finding is that when financially constrained firms are properly identified, the neoclassical model is rejected only for unconstrained firms. This indirectly rescues the validity of the Euler equation approach. Moreover, financially constrained firms show a positive correlation between investment and lagged cash flow.     

Trade and Investment Linkages and Stock Market Long‐Run Relationship

This paper aims to examine whether the intensity of trade and investment linkages among the countries matter for their stock market long‐run relationship. To achieve this, we classify Australia's bilateral trade and investment partners into major, medium and minor. Empirical findings of an asymmetric generalised dynamic conditional correlation generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model show that correlations are time varying and increased significantly during the global financial crisis (GFC). Results of multivariate cointegration test confirm the long‐run equilibrium relationship between the stock markets of Australia and its major partners in the pre‐GFC and during GFC. Based on the full‐sample results, it indicates that the GFC has segmented the stock markets from the long‐run equilibrium relationship. Granger non‐causality test results on full sample show that Australian stock market causes only the New Zealand market while the USA, the UK, Germany, Canada, Switzerland and Italy drives the Australian market. Our results therefore suggest that the intensity of bilateral trade and investment linkages among the countries matter for their stock markets' long‐term relationship.     

我国上市公司的投资行为研究:基于新古典理论的检验

从新古典投资理论出发,通过研究我国上市公司投资行为对资本成本的响应程度以及企业投资规模与利润水平的关联程度,笔者发现:(1)我国上市公司的投资行为总体上符合新古典经济理论所期望的利润最大化目标下的企业投资行为范式;(2)由于存在较大的资本存量调整成本,新古典经济理论倡导的干预投资的经济政策对我国企业的投资行为在长期内会发生调节作用,但短期内的作用非常有限。     

融资约束、创新投入与国际化经营企业价值研究

以2005-2016年我国上市国际化经营企业为研究对象,采用面板数据分析融资约束、创新投入与企业价值的关系。实证结果表明：融资约束对国际化经营企业创新投入强度影响不显著,在全样本和高融资约束组中与企业价值显著负相关;创新投入具有中介作用,能显著提升国际化经营企业价值且有迟滞性;国际化程度与创新投入正相关,在全样本组中与企业价值呈U型关系;在控制变量中,实际有效汇率、净资产收益率与国际化经营企业价值显著正相关,而企业规模则与企业价值显著负相关。研究结论对于我国企业有效参与国际市场竞争、实现可持续发展具有参考意义。     

Credit constraints and productivity of SMEs: Evidence from Canada

To what extent firms are constrained by external credit is usually unobserved in commonly used firm-level data. We use a survey of financing among Canadian small and medium-sized enterprises to measure the likelihood of a firm being constrained by credit. We find that firm size, current debt-to-asset ratio and cash flow are robust indicators of being financially constrained, while long-term debt to asset ratio is not a significant indicator of credit constraints. We then estimate the firm-level total factor productivity, taking into account the measured credit constraints. Omitting credit constraints leads to an upward bias of productivity estimates, by 4 percent. In addition, we find no strong evidence that suggests credit constraints lead to slower productivity growth. Finally, we confirm that both investment and employment growth are negatively affected by the measured credit constraints.     

Financing constraints and inventories

This paper investigates the impact of financing constraints on firms’ inventory and cash management. In particular, it examines the extent to which the presence of such constraints may account for certain empirical regularities. These include, e.g., the excess variance of production vis-à-vis that of sales, as well as the counter-cyclicality and persistence of the inventory-sales ratio. We model the intertemporal decision-making on production, cash retention and dividends of a firm that is exposed to stochastic demand shocks in every period and faces constrained access to external sources of finance. It is found that the presence of financing constraints can explain the excess variance of production in a model which otherwise would not deliver this result. Moreover, as long as demand is positively serially correlated they also contribute to the counter-cyclicality and persistence of the inventory-sales ratio. The paper suggests that financing constraints should not be discarded as a factor driving the cyclical behaviour of inventories.