Unemployment and the shadow economy

Current research links the shadow economy (SE) and the unemployment rate either indirectly or by means of a preliminary estimate. This article establishes and empirically implements a methodology for estimating the size of the SE as a direct function of the tax and unemployment rates. This link is found to be extremely relevant in countries with high unemployment rates (such as Greece and Spain) and less relevant in countries with moderate unemployment rates (such as Germany and Italy). Unemployment’s contribution to the SE is shown to be significant, especially in the years following the economic downturn of 2008. The calculation of the variance and distribution of these estimates is another significant contribution. The common criticism that SE estimates are unreliable is addressed by calculating the variance and the distribution of the estimates, and the large size of the SE in Greece and Spain is once again confirmed.     

海峡两岸经贸发展状况与趋势

自1979年年初祖国大陆提出"三通"倡议以后,海峡两岸经贸合作出现了较快的发展.两岸贸易额从1979年的0.77亿美元,到2006年达到1078.4亿美元,突破千亿大关,两岸贸易总额截至2006年底已达6036.9亿美元.从2003年起,大陆超越美国、日本,成为台湾地区最大的贸易伙伴,并且是台湾地区最大的出口市场.台商在大陆累计投资项目71847个,合同金额1010亿美元,实际投资439.1亿美元.     

对外劳务合作: 温故意在知新

进入新的世纪以来，随着经济全球化进程的加快，作为全球经济发动机的跨国公司对外投资急剧扩张，各国对劳动力的需求将不断增加，世界范围内劳动力的跨国流动将日益频繁，国际劳务市场规模无疑将不断扩大。中国加入WTO，标志着我国经济已经开始与世界经济全面接轨。在新的历史     

Cyclicality of fiscal policy and the shadow economy

A survey of recent literature on cyclical properties of fiscal policy reveals that fiscal policy is procyclical in many developing countries whereas it is countercyclical in developed ones. However, there is no consensus on what drives the difference in this specific cyclical property of fiscal policy. Using cross-section and panel data sets for 78 countries we document that procyclicality of fiscal policy is more pronounced in countries with a larger size of the shadow economy. We also show that policies reducing the size of the shadow economy lead to a less (more) procyclical (countercyclical) fiscal response to shocks.     

Reciprocity in the shadow of threat

This paper considers a partial equilibrium model of conflict where two agents differently evaluate a contested stake. Differently from common contest models, agents have the option of choosing a second instrument to affect the outcome of the conflict. The second instrument is assumed to capture positive investments in ‘conflict management’—labeled as ‘talks’. The focus is on the asymmetry in the evaluation of the stake: whenever the asymmetry in the evaluation of the stake is large there is no room for cooperation and a conflict trap emerges; whenever the degree of asymmetry falls within a critical interval, cooperation seems to emerge only in the presence of a unilateral concession; as the evaluations of the stake converge, only reciprocal concessions can sustain cooperation. Finally the concept of entropy is applied to measure conflict and conflict management.     

Consumption in the shadow of unemployment

By how much do employed households reduce their consumption when the aggregate unemployment rate rises? In Spain during the Great Recession a one point increase in the unemployment rate was related to a strong reduction in household consumption of more than 0.7% per equivalent adult. This reduction is consistent with forward-looking agents responding to downward revisions of their expectations on future income growth rates: the shadow of unemployment. Using consumption panel data that include information on physical quantities we show that the drop in consumption expenditure was truly a reduction in quantities, and not a switch to cheaper alternatives.     

Rural-to-urban migration and the shadow wage in LDCs

"This paper discusses the amount of rural-to-urban migration which will be forthcoming when a new urban job is created for which an institutionally fixed wage above the market-clearing level is offered. A simple formula is proposed to estimate migration response. It can be used to calculate the shadow wage in cost-benefit analysis (CBA) in less developed countries (LDCs)."     

Malnutrition in the shadow of economic growth

We formulate the consumption and wealth accumulation behavior for low‐income agents who are concerned with their relative income with respect to a reference group. Using a dynamic consumption and saving model, we show the conditions under which low‐income and status‐seeking individuals accumulate more wealth and consume less of a nutritious good than the levels in the absence of status‐seeking behavior. Our results suggest that malnutrition and economic growth may go hand in hand in developing economies.     

中非经贸合作发展历程的丰碑——2006年中非合作论坛北京峰会述评

50年前中国与埃及建立了外交关系,从此开启了新中国与非洲国家外交、经贸和文化关系的新纪元.半个世纪以来的发展历程,凝聚着中非老一代领导者的心血,记录了变化万千的世界风云.     

Group decision-making in the shadow of disagreement

A model of group decision-making is studied, in which one of two alternatives must be chosen. While agents differ in their preferences over alternatives, everybody prefers agreement to disagreement. Our model is distinguished by three features: private information regarding valuations, differing intensities in preferences, and the option to declare neutrality to avoid disagreement. There is always an equilibrium in which the majority is more aggressive in pushing its alternative, thus enforcing their will via both numbers and voice. However, under general conditions an aggressive minority equilibrium inevitably makes an appearance, provided that the group is large enough. Such equilibria invariably display a “tyranny of the minority”: the increased aggression of the minority always outweighs their smaller number, leading to the minority outcome being implemented with larger probability than the majority alternative. We fully characterize the asymptotic behavior of this model as group size becomes large, and show that all equilibria must converge to one of three possible limit outcomes.     

浅析中国式影子银行

作为新兴市场的代表,中国的影子银行业务得到快速发展,金融脱媒现象不断加剧,一方面适应了客户的多样化需求与银行的创新冲动,另一方面使得中国的金融系统比以往传统的金融系统更脆弱。通过对于影子银行的全面分析,追溯其产生的根源,寻找相关对策,降低其对我国金融系统的风险,同时能够更好规范影子银行的发展,充分放大其融资的有利效应,推进我国金融创新的监管机制,并建立风险预警体系,提高防范能力,使得金融系统健康有序地发展。     

Increasing cooperation among plants,symbionts, and farmers is key to past and future progress in agriculture

The collective welfare of crop plants, their microbial symbionts, farmers, and society can be undermined by tragedies of the commons. A crop could increase resource allocation to grain if each plant invested less in sending roots into soil already explored by neighbors and less in stem growth. But evolutionary fitness depends on which plants capture the most soil resources and light (e.g., by growing taller than their neighbors), not just on the efficiency with which those resources are used. As for symbionts, with several strains infecting each plant, only host-imposed sanctions limit the fitness of strains that divert more resources to their own reproduction, at the expense of activities that benefit their host plant. Similarly, individual farmers do not necessarily benefit from pest- and resource-management practices that benefit farmers collectively or society as a whole. Plant breeders have increased crop yields by reversing past selection for individual fitness and they could breed for crops that would favor more-cooperative microbial symbionts. Better aligning interests among farmers and society may be more difficult.     

Tax reform in Georgia and the size of the shadow economy

This study applies three different methods widely used in the literature to track changes in shadow economic activity in Georgia following a drastic tax reform in 2005. The first method is a currency demand approach based on macrolevel data. The second and third methods rely on micro level data from household surveys. Overall, we find evidence that the amount of income underreporting decreased in the years following the reform. The biggest change is observed for households headed by a farmer, followed by ‘other’ types of households where the head does not report any working status. Employed and self‐employed households appear very similar before the tax reform and show minimal adjustment in income reporting in the post‐reform period. Results, however, suggest that much of any difference may have come from increased enforcement efforts rather than rate changes.     

The changing nature of the OECD shadow economy

Traditionally, the presence of the shadow economy (SE) has been associated, mainly and positively, with taxation. Recently, some authors have suggested that the SE may be also linked to the institutional setting (efficiency of the bureaucracy, regulations, corruption, etc.) so that just two stable equilibria are possible. In the “good” one, there is a small hidden sector, large fiscal revenues and honest/appreciated institutions. The other, “bad”, equilibrium is the opposite. Unlike the traditional approach, therefore, the recent literature argues that the tax burden and SE can be negatively correlated. Examining the links between these variables in relatively uncorrupt systems, this paper reconciles the two views. Theoretically, it claims that many different good equilibria can emerge whereby SE and its determinants are linked in complex and different ways. For instance, taxation and SE can go hand-in-hand, even taking into account the institutional framework. Empirical evidence for OECD countries supports both the model and the changing nature of the SE.     

Relative performance pay in the shadow of crisis

We analyze whether incentives from relative performance pay are reduced or enhanced if a department is possibly terminated due to a crisis. Our benchmark model shows that incentives decrease in a severe crisis, but are boosted given a minor crisis since efforts are strategic complements in the former case but strategic substitutes in the latter one. We tested our predictions in a laboratory experiment. The results confirm the effort ranking but show that in a severe crisis individuals deviate from equilibrium significantly stronger than in other situations. This behavior contradicts the benchmark model and leads to a five times higher survival probability of the department. We develop a new theoretical approach that might explain players׳ behavior.     

Neighborhood structure and the evolution of cooperation

This paper deals with the problem of explaining the survival of cooperative behavior in populations in which each person interacts only with a small set of social ‘neighbors’, and individuals adjust their behavior over time by myopically imitating more successful strategies within their own neighborhood. We identify two parameters—the interaction radius and the benefit–cost ratio—which jointly determine whether or not cooperation can survive. For each value of the interaction radius, there exists a critical value of the benefit–cost ratio which serves as the threshold below which cooperation cannot be sustained. This threshold itself declines as the interaction radius rises, so there is a precise sense in which dense networks are more conducive to the evolution of cooperation.     

Openness and growth: The long shadow of the Berlin Wall

The question whether international openness causes higher domestic growth has been subject to intense discussions in the empirical growth literature. This paper addresses the issue in the context of the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. We analyze whether the slow convergence in per capita incomes between East and West Germany and the lower international openness of East Germany are linked. We address the endogeneity of openness by adapting the methodology proposed by Frankel and Romer (1999) to a panel framework. We instrument openness with time-invariant exogenous geographic variables and time-varying exogenous policy variables. We also distinguish the impact of different channels of integration. Our paper has three main findings. First, geographic variables have a significant impact on regional openness. Second, controlling for geography, East German states are less integrated into international markets along all dimensions of integration considered. Third, the degree of openness for trade has a positive impact on regional income per capita.     

Exploring the dynamics of the shadow economy across US states

This article examines the dynamics of the shadow economy using data for 50 US states over the period 1998–2008. Using a panel VAR model, we analyse the impulse response of the shadow economy to an orthogonal shock in capital tax rates, educational attainment, union participation and gross state product. We find evidence of significant dynamics underlying the relationship between the shadow economy and its determinants. The results remain robust to alternate measures of the determinants of the shadow economy, alternate causal ordering of the variables in the system and conditioning on the level of income in each state.