An empirical analysis of the unit labor cost-product price relation in the U.S. economy

This article tests for cointegration between unit labor costs and the level of product prices in four sectors of the U.S. economy: the aggregate business sector, the nonfinancial corporate sector, durable manufacturing, and nondurable manufacturing. A finding of cointegration for most specifications supports the existence of long-run labor market equilibrium for producers and suggests estimation of error-correction models to examine the dynamic relationships. In every sector except nondurable manufacturing, error-correction model estimates indicate there is a mutual feedback relationship between unit labor costs and prices. Controlling for deviations from full employment, oil price shocks, and the Nixon wage and price controls, the results also provide evidence of significant nominal wage indexation in U.S. labor markets. Throughout the economy there appears to exist both effective neoclassical wage and price adjustment mechanisms to maintain labor market equilibrium and short-run rigidities which may contribute to deviations from full employment outcomes.     

Are House Prices Responsible for Unemployment Persistence?

The paper analyses the ambiguous role of house prices and housing investment for unemployment dynamics. Whereas traditional models see an increase in house prices as a dynamic multiplier that contributes positively to business cycle swings, the paper considers additional transmission mechanisms via the competitiveness channel (wages) and productivity. As house prices rise, wages tend to follow in order to make up for the loss in real disposable income, which limits employment creation. In addition, with rising house prices, the relative size of the construction sector – a low-productivity industry – tends to increase, lowering aggregate productivity growth, further dampening competitiveness. The paper estimates a stylised dynamic general equilibrium model with unemployment flows. Introducing different transmission mechanisms through which the housing market influences labour and macroeconomic dynamics, the size and direction of the housing market channel is being analysed. The estimation results show that housing shocks can have long-lasting negative effects on employment even though a housing boom can generate a short-lived stimulus on growth and employment. The paper also offers some policy advice simulating housing shocks under different types of structural reforms and macro-prudential regulation.     

Price Rigidity and the Selection of the Exchange Rate Regime

We evaluate and qualify Friedman's, 1953, “case for flexible exchange rates” in the presence of sticky prices in a two country model. We find that a flexible regime performs indeed better when the degree of nominal price rigidity is high while a bilateral peg does better when prices are fairly flexible. This result obtains independent of whether monetary policy is activistic or not and is mostly due to the negative relationship between employment and productivity shocks when prices are relatively sluggish (Gali, 1999). A unilateral peg tends to produce the lowest level of world welfare but it sometimes represents the best monetary arrangement for the pegger. JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E52, F33, F42     

Is the Chinese Economy Moving in the Direction of Tertiarization？

Drawing upon output, employment, consumption and trade data, this article examtnes whether there is an economic tertiarization trend in China ＇s economy and evaluates the common factors driving current trends. It shows that the tertiarization trend is evident for the overall economy and most regions in terms of the service nominal value-added ratio and service employment and consumption. However, the tertiarization trend is not significant in terms of the service real value-added ratio, and there is even some concurrent ＂detertiarization ＂ because of the decreasing proportion of services in imports and exports. lndeed, China ＇s tertiarization trend is far behind its industrialization trend The rise in the relative prices of services explains the rising proportion of household service consumption expenditure and further illuminates why the service real value-added ratio has not grown. The main cause for the growing percentage of service employment is the lag in service labor productivity growth in interaction with the price inelasticity of service demand ＂Cost disease ＂ has appeared in service consumption.     

Nominal rigidity and some new evidence on the New Keynesian theory of the output-inflation tradeoff

This paper develops a series of tests to check whether the New Keynesian nominal rigidity hypothesis on the output-inflation tradeoff withstands new evidence. In so doing, I summarize and evaluate four different estimation methods that have been applied in the literature to address this hypothesis. Both cross-country and over-time variations in the output-inflation tradeoff are checked with the tests that differentiate the effects on the tradeoff that are attributable to nominal rigidity (the New Keynesian argument) from those ascribable to variance in nominal growth (the alternative new classical explanation). I find that in line with the New Keynesian hypothesis, nominal rigidity is an important determinant of the tradeoff. Given less rigid prices in high-inflation environments, changes in nominal demand are transmitted to quicker and larger movements in prices and lead to smaller fluctuations in the real economy. The tradeoff between output and inflation is hence smaller.     

Employment,welfare and reserve effects of global protection

Summary In this article it is shown that expenditure-switching policies, like exchange rate protection, tariff protection and export subsidizing, might increase the level of employment and welfare in the short run (when indexation of factor prices is absent). Complete indexation of factor prices, however, makes exchange rate protection senseless. In the case of tariff protection, complete indexation will even worsen employment and welfare (protection becomes impoverishing). Only a policy of export subsidies makes sense if employment is to be improved in an indexed economy. This additional employment, however, is paid for with a deterioration of the terms of trade and the risk of retaliation. Therefore, taking the long run view, expenditure switching policies should be rejected for macro-economic purposes. The author is professor of international economics at Tilburg University. He would like to thank Dr. G. van Roij of the department of economics at Tilburg University and an unknown referee for their remarks, which led to an improvement of this article. The author is professor of international economics at Tilburg University. He would like to thank Dr. G. van Roij of the department of economics at Tilburg University and an unknown referee for their remarks, which led to an improvement of this article.     

Do Capital Inflows Matter to Asset Prices? The Case of Korea*

In the present paper, we investigate whether capital flows induce domestic asset price hikes in the case of Korea. This issue is relevant for crisis‐hit economies trying to prevent a boom–bust cycle as well as in the formulation of macroeconomic policy objectives in emerging market economies. Korea has recently experienced large capital inflows, in particular a surge in portfolio inflows. Furthermore, asset prices, including stock prices, land prices and nominal and real exchange rates, have also appreciated. The empirical results, obtained using a vector autoregression model, suggest that capital inflow shocks have caused stock prices but not land prices to increase. The effects on the nominal and real exchange rates have been limited, which relates to the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves.     

Real effective exchange rates and purchasing-power-parity convergence: Empirical evidence for Denmark, 1875–2002

Abstract

Official nominal and real effective krone-rate indices compiled by the Danmarks Nationalbank are available only for the most recent decades. This article makes an attempt to overcome this data shortage by constructing long historical time-series indices of nominal and real effective krone rates for the period 1875–2002. Furthermore, the article presents a first exploratory examination of the empirical evidence regarding long-run relative purchasing-power-parity (PPP) convergence based on univariate unit-root testing of the two new long time-series indices for the real effective krone rate, with respectively consumer prices and wholesale prices as deflators. The fastest mean reversion towards relative PPP seems to have occurred in those periods where Denmark has pursued a fixed-exchange-rate policy vis-à-vis the majority of its trading partners and thus in those periods with the lowest volatility in the nominal effective krone rate.     

Money illusion and aggregation bias

Summary This note shows that what often has been called money illusion in macro consumption functions can well be due to aggregation bias: micro consumption functions that are homogeneous of order one in (nominal) income, (nominal) wealth and prices may result in an aggregate consumption function that does not show such a homogeneity.Thanks are due to Professors W. H. Somermeyer and T. Kloek for positive criticism on the first draft of this paper.     

Asset Market and Balance of Payments Characteristics: An Eclectic Exchange Rate Model for the Dollar,Mark and Yen

In this paper we use an exchange rate model, which combines asset market characteristics with balance of payments interactions, to examine the nominal effective exchange rates of the German mark, Japanese yen and US dollar for the recent experience with floating exchange rates. Our approach may be interpreted as one which attempts to flesh out the missing links that arise in conditioning an exchange rate solely on relative prices, as occurs in a standard PPP analysis. Amongst the results reported in this paper are: significant, and sensible, long-run relationships for the currencies studied; complex short-run dynamics; a variance decomposition analysis which apportions nominal exchange rate error variances into real and nominal elements.     

Minimum Wages and the Card-Krueger Paradox

An apparent paradox perceived by Card and Krueger concerning the relationship between minimum wages, employment, and output prices is resolved by revisiting the economics of minimum wages to show that under monopsonistic conditions in the labor market and competitive price-taking in the market for output, increases in both firm-level and industry employment are compatible with increases in output prices.     

The Impact of Korea's Exchange Rate Volatility on Korean Trade

This study uses a GARCH-in-mean model to analyse the impact of Korea's nominal exchange rate volatility on exports and export prices over the current flexible-rate period. The volatility of Korea's won increases the exchange risk of exporters and leads to changes in export volume and price. This paper provides some evidence that nominal exchange rate volatility has had a statistically significant impact on real exports over the current floating-rate period. We show that persistence-in-variance of exchange rates affects the market for exports in Korea. An important result is that the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade variables is shown to be significant. We find that the GARCH conditional variance has a statistically significant impact on the reduced form equations. The magnitude of the effect is generally stronger for export quantities than prices. This result is contradicts that of Kroner and Lastrapes's analysis. This is explained by the fact that Korean exporters choose the strategy of pricing to maintain market share instead of adjusting export prices to reflect exchange rate changes, even when this cuts profit margins.     

The Impact of Korea's Exchange Rate Volatility on Korean Trade

This study uses a GARCH-in-mean model to analyse the impact of Korea's nominal exchange rate volatility on exports and export prices over the current flexible-rate period. The volatility of Korea's won increases the exchange risk of exporters and leads to changes in export volume and price. This paper provides some evidence that nominal exchange rate volatility has had a statistically significant impact on real exports over the current floating-rate period. We show that persistence-in-variance of exchange rates affects the market for exports in Korea. An important result is that the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade variables is shown to be significant. We find that the GARCH conditional variance has a statistically significant impact on the reduced form equations. The magnitude of the effect is generally stronger for export quantities than prices. This result is contradicts that of Kroner and Lastrapes's analysis. This is explained by the fact that Korean exporters choose the strategy of pricing to maintain market share instead of adjusting export prices to reflect exchange rate changes, even when this cuts profit margins.     

利息拿捏、汇率尺度与抑制我国物价过快上涨的对策选择

2011年和2012年我国会出现CPI涨幅超过5%的通货膨胀现象。2012年以后食品价格下降,CPI涨幅回落,但非食品价格和PPI仍将保持较快上涨态势。人民币名义汇率升值和提高存贷款利率会有效降低物价上涨幅度,但将付出不同程度的经济增速下降代价。在小幅度提息的同时采取人民币名义汇率小幅度渐进升值措施,是抑制物价过快上涨、保持经济较快平稳增长的较佳选择。     

The Impact of Capital Inflows on Asset Prices in Emerging Asian Economies: Is Too Much Money Chasing Too Little Good?

In recent years, emerging Asian economies have experienced (i) large capital inflows, especially a surge in portfolio inflows, and (ii) an appreciation of asset prices such as stocks, land, and nominal and real exchange rates. We empirically investigate the effects of capital inflows on asset prices by employing a panel VAR model. The empirical results suggest that capital inflows indeed have contributed to asset price appreciation in the region, although capital inflow shocks explain a relatively small part of asset price fluctuations.     

Dutch Disease in the post-soviet countries of Central and South-West Asia: How contagious is it?

This study seeks to determine the extent to which the former communist states of Central and South-West Asia are “infected” by the Dutch Disease. We take a detailed look at the functioning of the transmission mechanism of the Dutch Disease, i.e. the chains that run from commodity prices to real output in manufacturing. We complement this with two econometric exercises. First, we estimate nominal and real exchange rate models to see whether commodity prices are correlated with the exchange rate. Second, we run growth equations to analyse the possible effects of commodity prices and the dependency of economic growth on natural resources.     

Deep habits and the dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks

We introduce deep habits into a sticky-price sticky-wage economy and examine the resulting models ability to account for the impact of monetary policy shocks. The deep habits mechanism gives rise to countercyclical markup movements even when prices are flexible and interacts with nominal rigidities in interesting ways. Key parameters are estimated using a limited information approach. The deep habits model can account very precisely for the persistent impact of monetary policy shocks on aggregate consumption and for both the price puzzle and inflation persistence. A key insight is that the deep habits mechanism and nominal rigidities are complementary: the deep habits model can account for the dynamic effects of monetary policy shock at low to moderate levels of nominal rigidities. The results are shown to be stable over time and not caused by monetary policy changes.     

Sticky prices as a coordination success

Recent contributions have articulated ways in which price rigidities signal breakdowns of coordination. These contributions are aimed at unifying New Keynesian economics by linking the issue of nominal price flexibility with that of between-firm coordination. By contrast, this paper demonstrates that sticky prices can signal a coordination success rather than a coordination failure. A model is developed in which N firms face a stochastic industry demand and engage in (infinitely) repeated Bertrand competition. In each period, firms are able to learn the realization of the demand shock but at a positive cost. The existence of two equilibria—one featuring sticky prices and the other featuring flexible prices—is proved. These equilibria are then compared. The equilibrium featuring sticky prices Pareto-dominates that featuring the flexible ones.     

Price adjustment in open economies

The adjustment of product prices in open economies is analyzed by use of a model encompassing different product market structures and quarterly data for Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. In general, support is found in favor of a specialized production model implying that prices are affected by internal and external factors. Price adjustment displays substantial inertia and is in the short run driven by real shocks to both supply and demand, as well as being characterized by nominal rigidities, whereas in the long run relative prices are driven solely by supply variables.     

Re-examining the cyclical behaviour of prices and output

Re-Examining the Cyclical Behaviour of Prices and Output. -Re-cent studies have suggested that prices are not predominantly procyclical and that estimates of negative correlations provide substantially more support for “real” or supply-side interpretations than for “nominal” or demand-side interpretations of business cycles. This paper re-examines the implications of macroeconomic theory for prices and output and provides an alternative interpretation of the empirical results. The main conclusions are: (i) the correlations, when taken at face value, identify the presence of only temporary supply and demand shocks which is inconsistent with the postwar experience of sustained inflation; (ii) demand-induced business cycles can very well deliver timevarying and negative price-output correlations.