互联网发展对碳排放的影响——基于面板门槛模型的实证研究

基于线性面板模型和面板门槛模型,采用2008—2016年中国省级面板数据,实证检验了互联网发展对碳排放的线性和非线性影响。实证结果显示:采用线性面板模型结果表明,现阶段我国互联网发展提高了地区人均碳排放量,经济发展与碳排放存在倒"U"型关系,对外开放和城镇化程度提高减少了人均碳排放量,第二产业增加提升了人均碳排放量。考虑门槛效应时,互联网发展对碳排放的影响存在单门槛,即互联网发展与碳排放是倒"U"型的关系,当地区互联网水平处于中低水平时,互联网发展显著增加了地区的人均碳排放,当互联网发展水平越过门槛时,互联网发展又表现为抑制碳排放的增长。     

金融发展、全要素生产率与碳排放:来自G20的证据

高质量发展是新时代主题之一,而通过金融发展提升全要素生产率减少碳排放是实现高质量发展的重要路径。本文梳理了金融发展、全要素生产率与人均碳排放之间的内在逻辑关系。基于1971-2014年G20的面板数据,经验研究结果表明,全要素生产率的提升与人均碳排放之间存在"倒U型"曲线关系,金融发展与全要素生产率对减少人均碳排放可能产生正向或者负向的交互关系。发达经济体与新兴经济体的信贷增长并不能与全要素生产率产生正向的协同作用,无助于减少人均碳排放。对于发达经济体而言,资本市场发展能够与全要素生产率产生协同作用,减少人均碳排放量,而这种机制在新兴经济体中并不存在。因此,对于新兴经济体来说,一方面要正视经济转型升级需要经历的过程,另一方面要通过技术进步,尤其是促进科技与金融的良性互动,推动绿色发展和高质量发展。     

绿色基础设施投资降低了碳排放吗

基础设施绿色升级作为绿色产业发展的重要内容之一,与中国“双碳”目标的实现密切相关。基于2005年至2019年中国省际面板数据,研究了绿色基础设施投资对碳排放的影响及具体作用路径。研究发现：从中国整体来看,绿色基础设施投资与碳排放之间呈现倒U型关系,究其具体影响机制,绿色基础设施投资的增加通过U型曲线影响区域的绿化水平与技术水平,进而通过绿化效应与技术效应促成绿色基础设施投资与碳排放的倒U型关系。分区域来看,绿色基础设施投资对碳排放的影响存在区域异质性,具体而言,东中部地区绿色基础设施投资对碳排放的影响呈倒U型,而西部地区尚未形成倒U型。     

事件/政策

金砖国家经济总量将超发达国家 社科文献出版社近日在北京举办了“金砖国家崛起与全球发展及治理”研讨暨2011年《新兴经济体蓝皮书》发布会。会议探讨了新兴经济体的发展变化规律和全球发展与治理变革的新趋势，并正式发布了新兴经济体蓝皮书《金砖国家经济社会发展报告（2011）》。     

金砖五国服务贸易结构与竞争力分析

文章通过对金砖五国服务贸易整体贸易竞争力及细分行业贸易竞争力的分析得出同为新兴经济体的五国在服务贸易中不同竞争优势。以显示性比较优势为工具,对金砖五国进行实证研究,总结这五国的发展现状及趋势。     

信息化发展水平、资源依赖与绿色全要素生产率

信息化作为经济高质量发展的重要推手，对于资源地区走出“资源诅咒”困境意义重大，但一直被学界忽略。创造性地将信息化发展水平引入“资源诅咒”论述中，采用DEA—Malmqusit指数方法测算了2003-2017年我国285个地级及以上城市的绿色全要素生产率（GTFP），分析了信息化发展水平在资源依赖与GTFP关系中的作用。结果表明：①信息化发展水平的门槛效应导致资源依赖与GTFP呈现倒U型曲线关系。当信息化发展水平低于门限值时，无论资源依赖程度如何变化，它与GTFP的关系总是处于倒U型曲线右侧，即位于“资源诅咒”部分，而当信息化发展水平高于门限值时，无论资源依赖程度如何变化，它与GTFP的关系处于倒U型曲线左侧，即位于“资源祝福”部分;②信息化发展水平是显著影响资源依赖与GTFP的倒U型曲线拐点右移的要素，信息化发展水平提升能推迟或阻止“资源诅咒”的到来。     

人口半城镇化与产业非农化的时空耦合分析——以浙江省67县市为例

通过改进人口半城镇化测算方法,运用双变量空间自相关及耦合度模型,分析了浙江省人口半城镇化与产业非农化的空间格局及耦合度,并对其耦合关系进行了时空分析和规律探讨。结果表明:①浙江省人口半城镇化与产业非农化均呈增长趋势,人口半城镇化呈现出南高北低的空间格局,产业非农化表现出相反的北高南低格局。②人口半城镇化与产业非农化表现出显著的空间负相关,形成浙北低人口半城镇化—高产业非农化、浙西和浙南高人口半城镇化—低产业非农化的空间格局。③浙江省大部分县市人口城镇化与产业非农化耦合水平处于较高水平以上,无明显空间差异;人口半城镇化与产业非农化以中度耦合和较高度耦合水平为主,2005—2014年间中度耦合县域逐渐转变成较高度耦合,在空间分布上出现明显空间差异。④相较于人口城镇化和产业非农化耦合度不断上升的特征,人口半城镇化与产业非农化存在动态耦合关系,与人口城镇化水平呈倒“U”型分布,倒“U”型拐点在人口城镇化水平的55%左右,浙江省大部分县市处于倒“U”型分布的左侧阶段,人口半城镇化与产业非农化的耦合发展可以提高人口城镇化水平,同时注意拐点右侧需结合产业升级、户籍制度改革等手段促进半城镇化人口市民化。     

加强金砖国家的经济合作

一、金砖国家经济发展现状金砖国家是指巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非五个新兴经济体国家,经济以快速发展为主要特点。金砖国家总人口为28亿人,占全球人口的42%;国土面积占全世界近30%。目前,金砖五国经济总量占全球18%,外贸总额占全球15%,吸引的外资占全球17.5%。金砖国家的城市化率平均只有44%,这是五个国家的最大增长潜力所在。其中,巴西和俄罗斯已经实现     

产业集聚、外商直接投资与碳减排 ——基于中介效应与面板门槛模型分析

作为当今世界碳排放量第一的国家,中国如何发展绿色低碳经济,走好可持续发展道路,备受国内外关注。选取2004-2017年我国省际面板数据,基于产业集聚外部效应视角,采用中介效应分析方法研究产业集聚对碳排放的影响,并以外商直接投资作为门槛变量,进一步分析二者关系。得出以下结论：(1)外商直接投资在产业集聚影响碳排放的过程中起到部分中介效应,中介效应值为31.1%。(2)产业集聚与碳排放之间存在双重门槛效应,二者关系呈倒U型。当外商直接投资处于低水平时,产业集聚会增加碳排放量,当外商直接投资水平跨越更高门槛值,产业集聚的正外部性凸显,抑制碳排放量增加。(3)经济发展水平和能源结构对碳排放量均产生显著正向影响,产业结构优化能抑制碳排放量增加。（4）经库兹涅茨曲线检验，产业集聚与碳排放关系为倒U型，且产业集聚临界值为2.389。     

中国省级区域碳排放影响因素的实证分析

文章在能源消费导致的碳排放核算的基础上,利用1995～2005年中国30个省市区的面板数据定量分析了各地区碳排放与经济发展水平、产业结构、能源效率之间的关系.分析显示各地区碳排放与经济发展水平存在倒U型曲线趋势,而与能源消耗强度呈U型曲线关系,与第二产业产值的比重呈N型曲线关系.从各地区碳排放量对平均碳排放量的偏离量的大小,可以看出中国碳排放存在显著的东南部低中北部高西北部低的空间分布格局.     

Trading places: Does past growth impact inequality?

Using a broad panel dataset and semiparametric methods, the impact of past economic growth on current income inequality is examined. Increases in past short-run or medium-run growth rates raise current inequality. However, there is an inverted “U”-shaped relationship between past long-run growth and current inequality. Increases in past long-run growth rates raise current inequality in slow-growing economies and reduce current inequality in rapidly growing economies.     

新兴经济体与后金融危机时代IMF改革

全球金融危机爆发之后,国际货币基金组织不成功的援助措施使各国要求加快其改革进程。同时国际金融体系也在危机后重组,新兴经济体作为新兴力量在世界经济格局中崛起。新兴经济体成为一支独立的联合力量,并在IMF改革中提出自身的主张,要求获得更多话语权。新兴经济体由于其强大的经济实力和发展中国家的支持,促使发达国家依赖其进行IMF改革。同时,新兴经济体在参与IMF改革中也面临发达国家的压力,综合实力对比与金砖国家之间关系均影响着新兴经济体的合作。     

制造业碳排放和经济增长脱钩关系研究——基于速度和数量双重视角

基于速度脱钩和数量脱钩的双重视角,利用Tapio脱钩模型和环境库兹涅茨曲线模型,研究中国1987—2017年制造业碳排放和制造业经济发展的脱钩关系。结果表明:我国制造业2016—2017年、2008—2017年均为弱脱钩状态,制造业经济和碳排放呈倒“N”型关系,2017年制造业经济处于环境库兹涅茨曲线两拐点之间,未发生数量脱钩。借助“环境高山”理论可知,我国制造业处于经济增长和环境保护的“两难境地”,因此,政府需要做好经济和环境政策的长期攻坚准备。     

Urbanization with and without industrialization

We document a strong positive relationship between natural resource exports and urbanization in a sample of 116 developing nations over the period 1960–2010. In countries that are heavily dependent on resource exports, urbanization appears to be concentrated in “consumption cities” where the economies consist primarily of non-tradable services. These contrast with “production cities” that are more dependent on manufacturing in countries that have industrialized. Consumption cities in resource exporters also appear to perform worse along several measures of welfare. We offer a simple model of structural change that can explain the observed patterns of urbanization and the associated differences in city types. We note that although the development literature often assumes that urbanization is synonymous with industrialization, patterns differ markedly across developing countries. We discuss several possible implications for policy.     

Oil consumption and economic efficiency: A comparative analysis of advanced, developing and emerging economies

This paper investigates the economic efficiency-oil consumption relationship in 42 countries during the period 1986-2006. In a first stage by using DEA window analysis countries' economic efficiencies are obtained. In a second stage an econometric analysis based on robust GMM estimators reveals an inverted ‘U’-shape relationship between oil consumption and economic efficiency. In order to capture heterogeneities among countries' development stages the analysis has been separated into two groups (advanced economies and developing/emerging economies). The results show that advanced economies have much higher turning points compared to emerging and developing economies. It appears that oil consumption increases countries' economic efficiency. In addition the consumption patterns of oil products and its derivatives have changed through years and among countries. The different turning points from the econometric analysis indicate the dependence of oil consumption in advanced economies (higher turning points) is driven mainly by household purchasing activities and their standards of living (transport, housing and water, food, etc.). Finally, it appears that oil consumption is the main driver behind the progress of industrialization and urbanization regardless of the country's development stage.     

The New Development Bank and the structure of the multilateral development financial system

This paper investigates the influence of the New Development Bank (NDB) on the structure of the multilateral development financial system, using social network analysis. The findings show that some emerging economies have been significantly affected by establishment of the NDB, whereas developed countries still dominate. Although the influence of BRICS countries has increased, they still play a relatively weak role. Further analyses examine the influence of the NDB's expansion; developed countries and most BRICS countries are not affected, and the rankings of some entry countries has increased whereas that of non-entry countries with nondominant power has decreased.     

CO2 emissions,economic growth,energy consumption,trade and urbanization in new EU member and candidate countries: A panel data analysis

This paper investigates the causal relationship between energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization for a panel of new EU member and candidate countries over the period 1992–2010. Panel unit root tests, panel cointegration methods and panel causality tests are used to investigate this relationship. The main results provide evidence supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Hence, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between environment and income for the sampled countries. The results also indicate that there is a short-run unidirectional panel causality running from energy consumption, trade openness and urbanization to carbon emissions, from GDP to energy consumption, from GDP, energy consumption and urbanization to trade openness, from urbanization to GDP, and from urbanization to trade openness. As for the long-run causal relationship, the results indicate that estimated coefficients of lagged error correction term in the carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, GDP, and trade openness equations are statistically significant, implying that these four variables could play an important role in adjustment process as the system departs from the long-run equilibrium.     

新型城镇化背景下人口流动对环境污染的影响研究

在新型城镇化背景下,研究人口流动对环境污染的作用机制,实现城乡环境统筹发展等具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。基于省级面板数据建立效应模型,运用计量经济学的方法,全面分析人口流动和环境污染之间的关系。结果显示:人口流动对于环境污染防治呈现出正向作用,我国整体上已经跨过了人口流入对城市环境污染的倒"U"型拐点,但是在区域之间存在一定的差异性;同时产业结构和政府管制水平都对环境污染治理产生一定程度的影响。论文建议从加快城镇化进度、调整产业结构和政府加大环保治理力度三方面进行完善,在推进我国城镇化水平的前提下提升环境质量,满足人民日益增长的环保需求。     

The impact of macroeconomic factors on income inequality: Evidence from the BRICS

In this paper we investigate how the evolution of income growth, real interest rates, and inflation have driven income inequality across a variety of countries with particular focus on the BRICS economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) during the period 2001 to 2015. Our work suggests that, when central banks of the BRICS economies use monetary policy for macroeconomic stabilization, they need to consider the impact monetary policy changes have on the distribution of income in their nations. Our estimates reveal that the unintended consequence of policies that induce economic growth and higher prices is higher income inequality. We find that the positive relationship between the three macroeconomic variables and income inequality for the BRICS economies is stronger during the post-2008 period.     

Thresholds in finance–growth nexus: Evidence from G‐7 economies

This study explores the finance and economic growth nexus in G‐7 economies as these countries experience significantly higher levels of financial development. Using a balanced panel of 31 years from 1983 to 2013, we provide new evidence on the finance–growth relationship. We show the presence of nonlinearity as there is an inverted U‐shaped relationship between finance and growth in the long run. Estimating the thresholds in the finance–growth nexus, we notice that there exists a threshold effect of finance at 109% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We observe that exceeding the threshold would hinder the countries instead of furthering economic growth as too much finance is harmful. Based on the panel Granger causality test results, we claim that financial development should be associated with optimal growth performance. Our findings for the G‐7 economies offer some useful policy inferences to the emerging and developing economies in designing their financial development strategies.