A hierarchical utility model for the dynamic acquisition of heterogeneous items

This paper develops a model for situations in marketing and elsewhere in which an individual decision maker acquires multiattributed items that belong to several classes over time. The model captures the dynamic acquisition of heterogeneous items. Measurement and parameter estimation methods are described and illustrated with a small set of experiment data involving the acquisition of durable goods by households. Future research steps are also outlined.     

Database marketing modelling for financial services using hazard rate models

This paper investigates the effectiveness of using direct mail message as an element in the communication mix of a financial retail company. The focus in this study will be on interpurchase time, i.e. duration times between the last purchase of any type of financial service by a customer at that bank and the purchasing of a personal loan.

Our findings indicate that (1) direct mail message have a very significant effect on shortening the interpurchase time, (2) the combined effect of several direct mail messages exhibits diminishing returns to scale, (3) incorporating time-varying variables in the model significantly improves model results, (4) Ownership of certain other services has a significant impact on the probability of purchase of the personal loan, and (5) conditional probability of purchase is found to increase with time elapsed since last purchase. The latter finding shows that the receny effect, known to be very important in most RRM models, may to dependent on the product category.     

A multiobjective decision support system for multiresource forest management

A multiobjective and/or multiperson decision support system for analyzing multiresource forest management problems is developed in this paper. The procedure includes formulating the problem in a multiobjective and group decision making framework, and solving it using two solution techniques which consist of a distance-based compromise programming (CP) and a cooperative game theoretic approach of the Nash equilibrium type. The problem consists of five forest resources management objective functions to be maximized. Solving the problem using the two solution techniques enables determining a satisfactory compromise solution of the five forest resource management objectives. Sensitivity analysis of the two techniques shows compromise programming to be more sensitive to changes in the weight and the p-parameter of the technique while the cooperative game theoretic approach is relatively robust with respect to changes in the worst utility set.     

A market-level model of relationship regulation

This research examines the moderating effects public policy has on relationship strength in a relationship marketing context. Prior research suggests that many positive outcomes emerge from forming inter-firm relationships, yet few examine potential negative outcomes such as anti-competitive behavior. This paper examines what happens to both positive and negative outcomes, when close inter-firm relationships are regulated directly by public policy. It is found that regulations intended to protect consumers and small retailers from anti-competitive behavior are effective in reducing the negative outcomes of such behavior, yet they simultaneously have an unintended effect of dampening the positive outcomes that close inter-firm relationships provide.     

保税物流金融运营模式设计与分析

基于我国不同类型的海关特殊监管区域在沿海和内陆纷纷设立,并为各类国际贸易商品和服务的"引进来"和"走出去"搭建起重要的运营平台,同时,在针对各个特殊区域的特性与运营环境进行系统分析的基础上,创新性地提出了保税物流金融新概念,设计了四大类海关特殊监管区域相应的保税物流金融运营模式,探析了各种运营模式对应的业务运营概况,为我国海关特殊监管区域进行有效的保税物流金融运营提供了有益的指导。     

The demand for regulation of financial disclosures: The case of the insurance industry

Policyholders and other claimants in insurance companies are interested in “solidity,” i.e., the ability of insurers to meet their claims obligations in both the short run and the long run. Insurance regulators exist in order to represent the interests of consumers. Great emphasis is placed by the regulators of the market on the mandatory and uniform disclosure of relevant financial and operating aspects of insurers. This paper employs simple gametheoretic techniques to address two aspects of the general issue of the desirability of establishing a regulator to assess the solidity of insurers. First, why would uniform information about insurers be desirable? Given that uniformity is desirable, it could be achieved by voluntary agreement of insurers or via regulation. The second issue is how that uniformity is to be achieved; that is, what is the value of a regulator in achieving uniformity? Insurance provides an interesting instance of the general problem. A key determinant is the structure of costs and benefits of securing voluntary agreements across firms.     

Globalization and financial development: A model of the Dot-Com and the Housing Bubbles

In the last decade the United States experienced the burst of the Dot-Com and the Housing Bubbles. I develop a model to study the relationship between globalization and the emergence of rational bubbles. I also analyze how the effect of globalization on house prices depends on the type of bubble. I show that bubbles cannot arise in a financially developed country in autarky. In contrast, as globalization progresses, bubbles are more likely to appear in the financially developed country. I also show that house prices increase with globalization only when the bubble is attached to houses. This prediction is consistent with empirical evidence for U.S. metropolitan areas.     

Growth participation units: A proposal for a long-term financial instrument

The financing of long-term growth in developing countries has become more of a problem every year. In the following article one particular new financial instrument — Growth Participation Units — is discussed as a particular way to attract private sector long-term financing of development.     

Behavioral credit scoring model for technology-based firms that considers uncertain financial ratios obtained from relationship banking

The Korea government offers technology credit guarantee service to many technology-based small and medium enterprises (SMEs) suffering from funding problems. Many advanced application credit scoring models have been developed based on technology to reduce the high default rates of this service. However, a credit scoring model which can reflect changes in firms after a loan has been granted has not yet been developed. In the study reported here, we propose a behavioral credit scoring model that reflects the debt-paying ability of recipient firms, which is observed as a time series of financial ratios of firms via the relationship banking activities. We utilize this time series, as well as missing patterns of financial information, as additional predictors of loan defaults. We compare our proposed behavioral credit scoring models, fitted at different points of elapsed time, to the application credit scoring model. Finally, we suggest the best behavioral credit scoring model for technology-based SMEs. Our study can contribute to the reduction of the risk involved in credit funding for technology-based SMEs.     

A new exchange rate mechanism for the Euro age

Only a limited number of countries will participate in the single currency area at its formation on January 1st, 1999. A new link between the currencies participating in the Euro zone and those unable or unwilling to do so must therefore be created. A new EMS, with the Euro as its anchor currency, must be installed to ease the path into EMU for those countries that wish to join at a later date.     

A threshold model for respondent heterogeneity

Continuous models of respondent heterogeneity assume the existence of a response function where variables of interest are continuously related to explanatory variables. In many situations this assumption may not be true. In this paper we propose an approach of modeling respondent heterogeneity that identifies abrupt changes in the distribution of response coefficients around a threshold specification. Our model differs from traditional threshold models by introducing the threshold effect to describe across-unit behavior as opposed to within-unit behavior. We illustrate our proposed Bayesian threshold model for survey data from a large national retail bank that examines the effects of service wait times on customer satisfaction. We find evidence of a threshold effect where long in-process wait times are associated with bank branches characterized by weak associations between service quality drivers and overall perceptions of service quality. Branches with wait times below the threshold are found to have much stronger associations.     

Critical assumption planning: A practical tool for managing business development risk

Although much has been written about the practice of new business development, the authors continue to find corporate managers and entrepreneurs repeating the same mistakes and often reaching the conclusion that venturing in the corporate environment won't work. The problem stems from a mental model about how business should be managed and managers' performance assessed. Corporate managers of existing businesses are judged against meeting plan. In growing new businesses, however, strict adherence to “the plan” can lead to business failure. To manage business development risk, venture managers must learn to deal with uncertainty. Whereas managers of mature businesses practice the ethic of predictability, venture managers must follow a learning ethic.Working with Fortune 100 corporations, the authors have evolved a practical, disciplined process for business development risk management that focuses on learning. Titled critical assumption planning (CAP), the process maximizes learning about new markets at lowest cost. Major uncertainties in the business proposition are isolated as critical planning assumptions. Critical assumptions in the plan are then tested. The test sequence is determined by the potential reduction of uncertainty per dollar of test cost. Assessment of the assumption test results marks a milestone. At each milestone the business plan is revised to reflect what has been learned, and the venture is redirected or terminated. This process avoids the wasted effort and expense of pursuing the original plan until commercial failure becomes obvious.The key steps in this learning process are identification of critical assumptions and cost-effective testing of assumptions. Because these steps are unfamiliar to most corporate managers, effective use requires a new perspective and new planning tools. The study explains this perspective and introduces new tools for employing the process. Following are some planning innovations that have been effective in changing perspective and that also are of practical use:

1. 1. Differentiation between primary and derivative assumptions with focus on extracting and understanding the primary assumptions.

2. 2. Early construction of a model of the business plan that allows calculation of the impact of primary assumptions such as price or sales productivity factors on derivative assumptions such as revenues and income.

3. 3. Assignment of uncertainty ranges to the primary assumption values, not just the most likely values.

4. 4. Identification of the critical planning assumptions by determining the impact of their uncertainty ranges on venture net present value.

5. 5. Selection of the next venture milestone based on the test program that results in maximum reduction of uncertainty at least cost in least time for the most critical assumption(s).

Using CAP, managers can control risk despite the many uncertainties surrounding a new business proposition. Above all, decisions to stop or redirect ventures can be taken earlier, saving the corporation money and venture managers their career credibility.     

A safe speed guidance model for highways

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a fuzzy logic model to support decisions for the suggested speed limit for sections of highways as they become affected by adverse road conditions, environmental factors and differing traffic levels. The definition of the main factors, and their weight, that reduce safety on highways was conducted by the Delphi method, consulting traffic engineering experts. The survey served as a basis for structuring indicators and indexes in a soft decision tree, structured by a fuzzy logic system. The system can be used to support the decisions of those that manage the roads, indicating to drivers’ speeds, by visual, audible or combined systems.