Change mechanisms in the diffusion of residential energy conservation practices: an empirical study

Four types of variables that affect the diffusion of home energy conservation measures are assessed. These variables are the information possessed by households, household attitudes, the economic and demographic characteristics of households, and the attributes of conservation measures. A causal model of behavior change is presented based on Fishbein's theory of reasoned action. The model is tested using panel data on 225 homeowners from Decatur, Illinois and two conservation practices: employing winter night-time thermostat setbacks and adding attic insulation. The results illustrate the importance of all four change mechanisms. Many nonadopters have erroneous information about the financial and other benefits of the two practices. The elderly and the poor are particularly ill-informed. Negative attitudes are closely related to discomfort (for night-time setback) and expense (for attic insulation). As expected, barriers and incentives differ across population subgroups and innovations.     

Policy issues raised by direct broadcast satellites

Direct Broadcast Satellites, which transmit television programs directly to the viewer's home, present several policy issues that will have to be resolved during the next few years. Some of these issues transcend DBS, hence they must be resolved in a larger framework. Those that exist essentially within the framework of DBS include issues at the program producer's end, issues at the viewer's end, and technology issues. These latter are particularly important because inappropriate or unwise policy choices made now may nullify the benefits promised by improved technology.     

The economics of metric conversion for small manufacturing firms in the United States

Several major aspects of the metric conversion process occurring in the United States are examined by comparing a group of sample companies that have converted to metric production with a control group of nonconverting companies. Data files were used to relate several explanatory variables to the degree or percentage of metric production for individual companies and to compare the financial characteristics of converting and nonconverting companies. Smaller companies, on average, did more metric work for a single customer than large firms. In addition, as the percentage of metric work performed by companies increased, their dependence on a single buyer of their products tended to decrease. The analysis of the conversion process as a function of financial variables concluded that the conversion process was positively and significantly related to 1) long-term profitability, 2) liquidity, and 3) the size of firms as represented by the number of employees. Additional documentation is needed on the metric conversion process in distinct industries by firm size to more fully understand whether the process of technological diffusion is translated from large to small firms or begins in small firms themselves.     

Mindshift: The mental revolution we are in

It is by now a commonplace to say that today the world is in the midst of a revolution as profound as any we have ever experienced. It is, however, much less of a commonplace to specify precisely of what this revolution consists. The contention of this article is that the revolution is more than a mere shift in our industrial or technological base. Fundamentally, it is a change in underlying mental attitudes—how we conceive of the world. It is thus a shift in our values but at the same time much more basic than this alone.This article describes the nature of the change that is occuring in mental attitudes. However, it does not do so in a traditional way. Primarily, it does it by means of a fable. The reason is that the shift we are experiencing is also in part a shift in our aesthetic vision, that is, in the styles of discourse that we use to describe reality. In short, different conceptions of the world require different stylistic forms. The full nuances of a new era can not be captured by the forms of the past.     

On the role of science in the postindustrial society: “Logos”—the empire builder

The hypothesis that language and DNA represent two stages of the same evolutionary path is briefly evaluated. Volterra equations, so useful in describing the dynamics of competing systems are, in fact, equally efficient in describing social behavior, as shown in numerous examples. The emergence of language first, and science later, interpreted as a metalanguage, are attributed to a “hypercyclization” of basic competing utterances in analogy of hypercyclization of quasi-species of replicating molecules in Manfred Eigen's theory of DNA development and evolution.     

Incorporating Delphi results in system dynamics models: A case of Indian tea industry

The results of a Delphi study on the future of the Indian tea industry are presented. Most of the information obtained for the study helps in formulating and validating a system dynamics model. The model also considers the occurrence of new events as visualized by the panelists. It is shown, however, that the policies recommended by the panelists yield poor industry behavior when Delphi-predicted new events operate in the environment. This may be due to lack of comprehension of the complexity of interaction between policies proposed and new events visualized by the panelists. On the basis of this investigation, it is proposed that Delphi and system dynamics studies should complement each other in arriving at viable policy decisions.     

The future of economics: A Delphi Study

In an attempt to forecast the shape of economics in the year 2001, a Delphi study was undertaken, involving over 200 professional economists from 18 different countries. The end result was a list of 28 breakthroughs thought likely to occur in the next 20 years. The paper describes each breakthrough in detail, the process by which consensus and dissent were communicated, and the method used to select the panel of experts surveyed. Although the overall outcome of the study can be interpreted from several perspectives, one inescapable impression that emerges is that the liberal tradition in economics is latent but not dead, or equivalently, that the present conservative drift in the discipline is likely to be shortlived.     

Recession 1983: Ten more years to go?

Recession is a Damocles Sword hanging on Western societies, and by reflex on the developing world. The analysis on causes, effects, and possible duration have led to highly controversial results. This article uses an original approach to model the process of long economic cycles, where only physical indicators are taken into account, like number of objects, weights, calories, and time with complete disregard of money, capital, and fiscal measures. From this particular angle economic behavior shows simple, stable, and predictable features, which may greatly help to construct an efficient economic theory. Concerning the recession proper, the model bring fresh support to the Schumpeter view, with time bunching of basic innovations, stable time constants to market saturation, and long waiting for the next bunch to rekindle the boom. Because recession is linked to societal time constants, sweeping solutions appear improbable but a self-consistent patchwork is suggested.     

Use of mathematical models in automotive transportation policy analysis: A case study

Mathematical models are used widely in automotive transportation policy analysis. The limitations, benefits, and uses of a case-study model, the Sweeney Passenger Car Gasoline Demand Model, were examined. It was found that because of users' lack of awareness of the model's characteristics, the model has sometimes been misused, although the misuse appears to have had no major negative policy impact. However, the model use has had some impact on major automotive/energy policy decisions of the 1970s. Involvement by the model author in applications of the model contributed to effective use of the model in the policy process.