Experimental technology assessment: Explorations in processes of interdisciplinary team research

Technology assessment (TA) is team research that entails the cooperative effort of professionals from diverse disciplines. Whether this effort can be truly integrated into an interdisciplinary assessment is problematic, based on analyses of 24 actual TAs. To probe the situational and process factors that impinge on this interdisciplinary research process, we have performed laboratory simulations on TA-like problems. By controlling several key factors, these sessions have yielded insights into small group interactions and offer suggestive evidence for the conduct of future TAs. In these exercises the role of expertise was downplayed as groups preferred to operate in a “common-group learning” mode; epistemological differences emerged in the form of a “pecking order” favoring more quantitative sciences; and performing the leadership role reduced an individual's intellectual contribution to the problem-solving process. These exploratory TA simulations suggest merit in further efforts at controlled study of complex interdisciplinary processes.     

The research strategy in management of technological innovation

The increasing importance of technology in the application world has imposed high demand on the research community for insightful and useful principles about “management of technological innovation” (MTI). This paper examines the academic legacy in terms of conceptual categories, causal relationships and taxonomy of relevant systems, and asserts from a system perspective that MTI as an applied science is still in its infancy.Based on methodological argument, this paper warns of the danger of hasty compromise of strategically important topics to “popular” definition of “researchability,” and suggests several research guidelines and approaches for this young interdisciplinary discipline:

1. (1)To explore new frontiers, use “proximate variables,” consider contextual factors and causation in broad terms, conceptualize “independently,” and pay more attention to case study method.

2. (2)To understand driving forces, be aware of practice, and focus on internal dynamics.

3. (3)To transcend complexity, adopt a hierarchical structure perspective and state-and-flow concept, and condense findings into configurations.

Finally, this paper urges the formation of an overall research strategy to accelerate the accumulation of MTI grounded knowledge.     

An interactive computer-based approach to aid group problem formulation

The size, cost, and complexity of quantitative modeling in the social and physical sciences demand that the modeler focus attention on premodeling phases of analysis, specifically on formulation and definition of “problems.” This is especially true in the “softer” or less “well-structured” problem areas of futures research and technology assessment. At this stage of modeling, a key factor is communication among modelers. This paper briefly discusses approaches to classifying and formulating problems that illustrate the role of communication in modeling. It then describes a computer-based communication system as one possible aid in the problem-formulation process.     

On the methodology of the holistic experiment: An approach to the conceptualization of large-scale social experiments

Presupposing Churchman's and Ackoff's definitions of a system, the notion of a holistic experiment is defined. A holistic experiment is an experiment on a nonseparable system for the purpose of determining the properties (measures of effectiveness) of the systems components. The basic problem of a holistic methodology is that of conceptualization: (1) the conceptualization of the systems “components,” (2) the conceptualization of the “teleological” standard that defines the systems components; and (3) the assessment of the degree of systems “separability.” Various guidelines for conceptualization are offered. These guidelines derive from such disparate disciplines of knowledge as the sociology of knowledge, the psychology of science, the philosophy of science, law, epistemology, ethics, and systems science. It is argued that the problem of defining an adequate methodology for holistic systems constitutes an “ill-structured” problem. The methodology for dealing with ill-structured problems is not the same as the methodology for dealing with well-structured problems. To date, the methodology of the management sciences has been overwhelmingly preoccupied with well-structured problems. Large-scale social experiments require a fundamentally different approach.     

Conceptions of the dual economy

Due to the current labor market problems and to the increase in personal “free time,” the “other half” of the economy is attracting increased attention: the household economy, the informal sector, black labor, the shadow economy, etc. The purpose of this paper is to summarize the current terminology and conceptual diversity in this field, in order to clarify the notions and thus the theoretical approaches which are a prerequisite for further work at the present stage of research.     

Do concentrated shareholdings mitigate the agency problem of “free cash flow”? some evidence

It is often argued that corporate managers tend to waste “free cash flow”. While the standard Berle-Means approach to corporate agency problems suggests that this behavior should be restricted to firms with atomistic shareholders, it is argued here that the effect of concentrated share ownership on the decision to disgorge “free cash flow” is ambiguous because concentrated ownership can blunt the disciplinary effect of a hostile takeover threat. The decision to pay out free cash flow in a sample of large U.S. corporations is found to be unrelated to the size of managerial, family or institutional blockholdings. This suggests that large shareholders are of no use in resolving the free cash flow problem, or that the importance of free cash flow as a source of agency problems has been greatly exaggerated.     

Societal aspects of technology assessment

Despite earnest admonitions in most technology assessments that institutional arrangements, social impacts, and societal implications be taken into account, the methodology commonly used not only systematically and systematically excludes these very dimensions but often creates a distorted focus. The paradigm dominating structural modeling in technology assessment is technically-oriented; the techniques, lineal descendants of systems analysis, are no more reliable for “assessing” the uncertain future than have been their ancestors in “managing” the present.     

Sustainability of nations by indices: Comparative study between environmental sustainability index, ecological footprint and the emergy performance indices

The present work makes a comparison between the two most used environmental sustainability indices of nations: “ecological footprint” and “environmental sustainability index”, with two emergy ratios (renewability and emergy sustainability index). All of them are gaining space within the scientific community and government officials. Despite the efforts for obtaining an index that adequately represents the sustainability of a region, according to the result of this research, nowadays there is not yet a completely satisfactory index. We consider that all of them need to be improved, but the results point out the possibility of obtaining one better index of sustainability through the junction of ecological footprint with renewability emergy index.     

Influence of decision styles on use of decision models

This article discusses how the “decision style” of an administrator influences the adoption and use of particular decision models. Several “interactive” and “analytical” decision models often used to guide decision making are described and critiqued to point out their virtues and deficiencies. Propositions are suggested that contend that “systematic,” “judicial”, “speculative”, and “intuitive” styles have clear-cut preferences for a particular decision model. This model seems to be used, even when another would be more suitable. Effective decision makers are postulated to adapt their styles, or at least to see the benefits of different styles. Mixed-mode models are proposed that seem to simulate the behavior of successful decision makers.     

Can Japan succeed in “Chigyo-ka” (intelprise-formation)?

There are two aspects in today's information revolution that started in the late 1970s. The first is an aspect referred to as “the third industrial revolution,” which triggers the transition to the “21st century system of Industrialization.” The information revolution in this sense brings the creation of new “breakthrough industries (new multimedia industries).” And the second aspect of the information revolution possesses the characteristics of both a technological revolution and a social revolution and brings about the arrival of the third phase of the historical evolutionary process of the modern civilization, which proceeds through three phases, namely “militarization, industrialization, and then informatization.”If the bearers of modern industrialization are a “group of enterprises” that have been engaged in the race in order to gain “wealth” (generalized means of exchange/exploitation power), and if these enterprises' activities have been exercised in the world market where their products have been sold, then it is appropriate to call the bearers of informatization a “group of intelprises.” They will be engaged in the race to gain “wisdom” (generalized means of persuasion/induction power), then stages of their activities can be called a “global intelplace” where “sharables,” that is, information and knowledge, will be disseminated. And now, toward the 21st century, the third phase of modernization, which can be called the “informatization/intelprise formation” or the “wisdom game” (intellectualism), is about to begin.Japan's “ie society (a society based on the ie principle—literally, it means “house” but here it is interpreted as cultural principle for organizing a society), which has been going through the process of evolution on the Japan Archipelago, has developed a network-based organization with little stratification within its infrastructure. In this sense, Japanese society can be characterized as a “network-oriented society” in which intelprises and an intelplace in the broad sense have functioned as the essential components of the society since Middle Ages. In general, an intelplace and intelprises that operate actively within this framework serve as the flexible bases for different types of social relations and institutions, such as states and markets and eventually integrate these into the society to a certain extent. In fact, it took place quite regularly during the modernization “in the narrow sense,” or Westernization of Japanese society after the Meiji Restoration. There exist some problems, however. Some of the characteristics found in Japanese society may become obstacles to activities aimed at the sharing and promotion of information and knowledge in the global intelplace and Japanese participation in the “wisdom game.” Badly needed are serious efforts for Japanese intelprise-formation to reduce these obstacles as much as possible.     

Health benefits of tunneling through the Chinese environmental Kuznets curve (EKC)

In this paper, we first add to what is a growing literature on the existence and nature of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model for developing countries, by testing for the existence of an EKC for China using a panel data set of city-specific, annual ambient levels of SO₂ pollution. We find some support for both the typical inverted-U-shaped relationship and an N-shaped, cubic configuration. More significantly, we then explore the possibility of China's “tunneling” through the EKC, by using newer, cleaner technologies, and thereby avoiding some of the environmental degradation that had often accompanied economic growth. Specifically, we estimate and economically value the health benefits realizable to Chinese cities from successful efforts to “tunnel” under the EKC over the next generation.     

A model of “coupled” technology transfer : A logistic curve approach

This article presents a mathematical model relating to the technology transfer problem. The origin of the problem stems from the existing trade-offs between the strategies of “technological progressiveness” and “static efficiency” employed by firms or countries defined as “leaders” and “followers,” respectively. The formulation of the model is based on the assumption that the technological development of a firm or a country follows a logistic growth curve when related to a specific technology. During the process of a “coupled” technology transfer, the development of the follower changes and its behavior is described by a first order nonhomogenous deferential equation. Different scenarios of the “coupled” technology transfer between the leader and the follower are being discussed.     

Venture capital: Structure and incentives

Venture capital is a major source of financing for firms in their early stages of development. Such businesses, especially in the high technology industries, are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty and asymmetry of information. In this paper we analyze the relationship between a venture capital organization (“capitalist”) and the initial owner of an entrepreneurial entity in which it invests (“entrepreneur”). We focus on the agency problems and derive a compensation system. In our model the capitalist provides a combination of equity and debt financing while the owner provides equity financing which serves as a signal affecting the beliefs (“optimism”) of the capitalist. The interesting result is that since the capitalist is assumed to be more risk averse than the entrepreneur, he is made to be more optimistic than the entrepreneur at the optimum.     

“Constitutionalizing” the corporation

To become effective instruments in the attainment of a sustainable society, corporations should have their constitutional status settled. Thus far, mainly by Supreme Court decisions, corporations have an uncertain status. They are “persons” under the Constitution and have certain rights; but unlike natural persons, they do not have concomitant constitutional duties. Corporations should be viewed as “private” governments exercising substantial power in society. They are, however, considered to be associations of individuals rather than divisions of society. The need is to legitimate their governing power by “constitutionalizing” them. That can be done by corporations accepting, or having imposed upon them, two principal constitutional duties. First, means should be developed whereby corporate officers routinely take the general good into account. That duty could be implemented by making “social impact statements,” analogous to but broader than the familiar environmental impact statements, before making important corporate decisions. Secondly, as “sociological communities,” corporate officers wield considerable power over members of those communities. A bill of rights similar to the Constitution's Bill of Rights is recommended so as to make corporate power that is necessary for achievement of societal goals as tolerable and decent as possible. Acceptance of those duties would make corporations parts of, not separate from, the greater corporation called society. They would be private, profit-making entities with a definite public function. Preferably, the duties should be voluntarily accepted. Congress, however, has undoubted constitutional power to impose both, should it so desire.     

At the crossroads of “futurism” and “prospective”: Towards a Canadian synthesis?

North American “future studies” and the French concept of “prospective” have been integrated to provide the basis for an attempted “Canadian Synthesis” in the approach developed by the Montreal-based think-tank, the Gamma Institute. In this paper the founding president of Gamma outlines the four stages of the approach in a conceptual framework entitled the “Chronospace” and illustrates its applicability by referring to some of Gamma's projects in the last 12 years.     

Perpetual youth and endogenous labor supply: A problem and a possible solution

In the “perpetual youth” overlapping-generations model of Blanchard and Yaari, if leisure is a “normal” good then some agents will have negative labor supply. We suggest a solution to this problem by using a modified version of Greenwood, Hercowitz and Huffman’s utility function. The modification incorporates real money balances, so that the model may be used to analyze monetary as well as fiscal policy. In a Walrasian version of the economy, we show that increased government debt and increased government spending raise the interest rate and lower output, while an open-market operation to increase the money supply lowers the interest rate and raises output.     

Limiting the system and reshaping lifestyles: Solving unemployment by social and technical innovations

We have become used to seeing crises in growth, unemployment, and inflation as purely economic problems that can be overcome by suitable economic and political means. One basic assumption of the following reflection however, is that the above might be only half the picture. To paraphrase a formula of Friedrich Engels, the concern is not “in the first and last instance” with questions of the “economic basis,” but with questions of the current images of human kind, social milieus and lifestyles. Solutions will thus tend to lie in social innovations and reorganization of the System insofar as they complement the new lifestyles.     

A Primer on Logistic Growth and Substitution: The Mathematics of the Loglet Lab Software

This article describes the mathematics underlying the Loglet Lab software package for loglet analysis. “Loglet analysis” refers to the decomposition of growth and diffusion into S-shaped logistic components, roughly analogous to wavelet analysis, popular for signal processing and compression. The term “loglet” joins “logistic” and “wavelet.” Loglet analysis comprises two models: the first is the component logistic model, in which autonomous systems exhibit logistic growth. The second is the logistic substitution model, which models the effects of competitions within a market. An appendix describes the current status of the software.