上市公司信息环境和分析师的盈利预测——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

分析师在证券市场中扮演着重要角色,而上市公司信息环境则直接将影响分析师作用的发挥。本文研究了我国上市公司信息环境对分析师预测行为的影响。实证研究表明：公司信息环境越差,证券分析师将越少使用历史会计信息,分析师向证券市场传递的增量信息就越多,相对历史会计信息而言,分析师预测信息的竞争力就越高。由于国内研究上市公司信息环境的文章相对较少,所以本文为国内分析师的盈利预测及相关研究提供了一个新视角。     

证券分析师的信息来源、关注域与分析工具北大核心

通过对国内证券分析师的问卷调查,了解目前我国证券分析师的日常工作、使用的信息来源、关注的会计信息和其他信息、以及所使用的证券分析工具,了解他们对会计信息质量等问题的认识。我们的主要结论是,我国证券分析师发展总体水平还比较落后,具体表现在证券分析师的工作经历时间偏短;比较注重公开披露信息,而较少通过直接接触如公司新闻发布会、电话或走访等方式获取资料;对股权变动、一般财务数据、会计政策和会计估计等信息比较重视,但对治理结构、薪酬结构、人员素质和审计意见等重视得还不够;分析手段和理论基础都偏弱等。     

见解的独到性与预示性——关于我国证券分析师分析能力的实证研究

本文通过对我国证券分析师的年报分析文章的研究，利用分析师得出的定性的褒贬结论。考察了分析师是否具有独到见解，以及分析师的这些结论是否具有预示性。研究结果表明，我国分析师已具备了一定的分析能力，但没有很强的证据表明他们有自己的“独到”见解。分析师在得出褒贬结论时关注的信息不同、使用的方法不同。而且在下贬义结论时，分析师倾向于使用确凿的信息和灵活的分析方法，但未发现分析师对不同行业、失败和非失败的公司进行分析时在关注的信息、使用的方法上存在显著差异。分析师下结论还比较依赖审计师的意见，对被分析公司的当前会计业绩也非常倚重。尽管如此，研究表明，这些定性结论已具有一定的预示性。     

研发文本信息:真的多说无益吗?——基于分析师预测的文本分析

本文采用文本分析技术提取年报研发文本信息,并从分析师预测角度解读其信息价值.研究发现:(1)R&D文本信息显著降低了分析师预测偏差及分歧度,而且信息透明度发挥了中介效应.(2)R&D文本信息披露越多,未来三年的创新产出以及政府研发补助越多,说明企业倾向于选择性披露有利于企业的研发信息.(3)企业披露动机越强,分析师获取私有信息的能力越弱,R&D文本信息对分析师预测偏差和分歧度的降低作用越显著.以上结论说明我国年报R&D文本信息具有一定信息含量,对分析师来讲“多说有益”.本文从研发文本视角以及分析师预测角度验证了我国年报文本信息的积极效应,有助于丰富R&D以及分析师预测文献.     

年报风险信息披露有助于提高分析师预测准确度吗?

年报风险信息披露既可能提高信息质量而对分析师预测行为产生积极影响,又可能因增加分析师的风险感知而对分析师预测行为产生消极影响。本文通过文本分析法量化年报风险信息披露,进而探讨其对分析师预测准确度的影响。基于公司层面的证据表明:风险信息披露频率越高,分析师预测准确度越高,而且这种积极影响主要体现在非国有企业、盈余质量较高及公司治理较好组。基于分析师层面的证据表明:风险信息披露频率越高,分析师预测准确度越高,这种积极影响主要体现在非明星、行业专长较低、对公司追踪时间较少的分析师中。这说明我国年报风险信息异质性较弱,有助于提高分析师预测准确度,从而支持了风险信息披露的信息观。本文结论有助于丰富信息披露以及分析师预测文献。     

公司财务绩效对分析师跟进的影响研究——以我国创业板上市公司为例

证券分析师在资本市场发挥了重要作用。本文以2009年至2013年我国创业板上市的公司为样本,研究了公司财务绩效对证券分析师跟进的影响。研究结果表明,公司财务绩效越好,分析师跟进人数越多,证明了我国证券分析师在对上市公司进行盈利预测时主要依赖的信息是公司财务信息。     

我国证券分析师特征与预测准度之间的经验分析

基于2002—2009年的大样本证券分析师公司年盈余预测数据,使用相对预测分析方法,在控制了其他预测影响因素之后,发现我国证券分析师特征显著影响他们的盈余预测准度。具体而言,我国证券分析师跟进公司的时间越长就越有经验,盈余预测就会越准;证券分析师跟进的公司数目越多和行业数目越多,预测研究的组合任务就越复杂,就不能有效发挥专业化优势,盈余预测就会越不准。不过,与假设预期不一致的是,我国证券分析师所在的研究机构规模越大,并没有发挥像国外大型研究机构所具有的资源优势,证券分析师盈余预测反倒越不准确。     

证券分析师与统计模型对盈余预测的准确性比较及两者的改进模型

本文使用2009年1月至2010年3月99家券商对我国上市公司作出的每股盈余预测数据,考察了证券分析师对于统计模型的相对准确性及其改进模型的准确性。研究表明,我国的证券分析师预测同以年度数据为基础的年度统计模型相比具有显著优势,同以季度数据为基础的季度统计模型相比也具有显著优势,只是优势相对较小。在考察改进模型与证券分析师预测的相对准确性时,我们发现以季度统计模型和证券分析师预测为基础的改进模型战胜了证券分析师预测,而以年度统计模型和证券分析师预测为基础的改进模型的准确性则依旧小于证券分析师的预测。     

证券分析师VS统计模型:证券分析师盈余预测的相对准确性及其决定因素

本文使用2005年35家券商对我国上市公司做出的每股盈余预测数据,考察了证券分析师盈余预测相对于统计模型的相对准确性及其决定因素。我们发现,我国证券分析师做出的盈余预测,同以年度历史数据为基础的统计模型得出的盈余预测相比,预测误差较小,证券分析师盈余预测具有一定的优势;但同某些以季度历史数据为基础的统计模型得出的盈余预测相比,预测误差较大,证券分析师盈余预测不具有优势。我们同时考察了决定证券分析师盈余预测相对准确性的决定因素。我们发现,公司每股盈余的波动性越大,公司上市越晚,跟踪公司的分析师越多,证券分析师的优势就越大。我们的研究对证券分析师以及投资者都有一定的启示作用。     

年报可读性对分析师盈余预测的影响

利用2010—2017年上市公司A股相关数据,本文研究了企业年报文本信息可读性对分析师盈余预测的影响。研究发现,企业年报文本信息可读性越低,分析师关注水平、预测质量也越低。进一步研究发现,较高的机构投资者持股水平能够显著缓解年报可读性对分析师关注的影响,但是没有发现机构投资者持股改善分析师预测质量的证据。高质量的审计以及高水平的信息披露质量评级可以改善企业的信息环境,从而有效缓解年报文本信息可读性对分析师盈余预测的影响。研究结论为企业年报文本信息可读性影响资本市场信息解读和传播效率提供了证据,有助于监管部门重视企业年报文本信息披露监管法律法规的制定和完善。     

衍生工具应用能改善资本市场信息环境吗？——基于分析师预测行为的视角

本文通过文本搜索获得企业衍生工具运用情况,在此基础上研究了企业衍生工具应用对分析师跟踪和预测信息结构的影响,并且进一步区分了明星分析师和非明星分析师预测行为的差异。研究结果表明,企业运用衍生工具会导致分析师跟踪数量显著减少,公共信息精度下降,从而对资本市场信息环境产生负面影响。但是,进一步我们发现分析师跟踪数量的减少和公共信息精度的下降是由非明星分析师所致,明星分析师跟踪数量和公共信息精度没有显著变化,私有信息精度反而增加;而非明星分析师跟踪数量显著减少,公共信息精度明显下降。本文的结论有助于我们进一步理解衍生工具应用对资本市场信息环境的影响,以及分析师在信息传递中的作用机制。     

Changes in accounting policies and investment analysts'' fixation on accounting figures

This paper describes and explains how investment analysts deal with changes in accounting policies. The extent to which analysts appear to be fixated on accounting figures is examined using their reports about companies that adopted accounting changes in their financial statements. Sixteen accounting policy changes were identified and divided into four categories and a distinction was made between strong and weak levels of fixation. Consideration is given to the level of fixation of investment analysts that can be explained by the extent of disclosure concerning the accounting change, the moment the accounting change is announced for the first time, the nature of the accounting change and the type of employer. The level of disclosure and the nature of accounting change are important determinants of fixation. Furthermore, it appears that financial journalists explain accounting changes and their effects on accounting figures more extensively than investment analysts employed by banks or firms of stockbrokers. This study focuses on investment reports in practice in a Dutch context, in contrast to previous research conducted in experimental settings.     

Fair Value‐related Information in Analysts’ Decision Processes: Evidence from the Financial Crisis

We use a sample of conference calls and analyst research reports from international banks to examine how financial analysts request and communicate fair value‐related information in their valuation process. We find that analysts devote considerable attention to fair value‐related topics. Most of the conference call questions and references in research reports pertain to fair value reclassifications and fair value changes of liabilities resulting from banks’ own credit risk. The accounting impact of these one‐time effects during the financial crisis and a lack of corresponding firm disclosures help to explain the prevalence of these two topics. The content of the questions and references suggests that analysts have different motives for their interest in fair value‐related information. While some analysts adjust reported earnings for unrecognised fair value changes of reclassified assets, most of the observed analysts exclude banks’ own credit risk effects from reported earnings. Thus, the use of fair value‐related information varies substantially across analysts and across instruments.     

Beyond cheap talk: management's informative tone in corporate disclosures

This study investigates the information content of Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) reports of listed Chinese companies. We develop a Chinese word dictionary and measure the tones of MD&As. Our results indicate that tone is positively associated with future earnings and is particularly useful when a firm's future prospect is uncertain, accounting information is difficult to understand, or board monitoring is strong. Further analyses show that tone also predicts future cash flow, future sales growth, market reactions, analysts’ revisions, and institutional investors’ shareholdings. Together, we provide robust evidence that in emerging markets such as China, management tone conveys valuable information beyond cheap talk.     

Comparing numerical data and text information from annual reports using self-organizing maps

More and more companies provide their accounting information in electronic form today. The accounting information in electronic form can be found in large commercial databases or on the web. This information is of great interest for different stakeholders, i.e., stockholders, creditors, auditors, financial analysts, and management. For the stakeholders it is important to be able to extract both quantitative and qualitative information concerning the companies they are interested in. The annual reports contain information both in numerical and symbolic form. So far, only the numerical information has been analyzed with help of computers. However, technology has evolved and in particular neural networks in the form of self-organizing maps (SOMs) provide a new tool for analyzing also text information. In this paper, we compare results on quantitative data with results on qualitative data from annual reports. We use smart encoding, SOMs, and document histograms for comparing the performance of forest companies worldwide. Firstly, we cluster the companies according to, on the one hand, quantitative information, and on the other hand, qualitative information. Secondly, we compare the results produced by the clustering methods. Our results of the comparison show that there is a difference between the results.     

Why Do Analysts use a Zero Forecast for Other Comprehensive Income?

Accounting theory and accounting researchers stress the importance of clean surplus accounting and comprehensive income to corporate valuation. However, casual observation suggests that sell-side equity analysts routinely ignore other comprehensive income (OCI) in their forecasts and instead focus on forecasting earnings (before OCI). Using a sample of analyst reports, I first confirm that analysts normally omit forecasts of OCI or comprehensive income from their reports, consistent with analysts forecasting OCI as zero. I then predict and find that a zero forecast for OCI generally produces lower forecasting errors than alternative time-series models, such as a random walk or AR(1) model, suggesting a rational reason why analysts take this approach. Finally, I predict and find that although analysts’ point forecasts of future OCI are usually zero, their implied cost of equity estimates are consistent with analysts forecasting a positive variance for OCI.     

What do analysts do? Discussion of “Information interpretation or information discovery: which role of analysts do investors value more?”

Three decades of accounting and finance research has extensively studied the outputs from financial analysts. However, there is sparse systematic evidence on what analysts do to generate their outputs in the form of forecasts, recommendations, and research reports. Livnat and Zhang (Rev Account Stud, 2012) provide interesting new evidence regarding the relative amount of value added that analysts produce by examining investors?? reaction to analysts?? forecast revisions issued promptly after firms?? public disclosures compared with those issued at other times. Their analysis shows that prompt revisions are associated with larger returns, which the authors interpret as evidence that analysts?? ability to interpret public disclosures is more valuable to investors. Three issues bear consideration in the interpretation of these findings.     

TIMELINESS OF ACCOUNTING REPORTS AND THEIR INFORMATIONAL CONTENT ON THE CAPITAL MARKET

Timeliness is recognized as an important characteristic of accounting information by the accounting profession, the users of accounting information, and the regulatory agencies. According to the evidence presented in this paper, accounting reports with shorter delay have a higher informational content than those with longer delay. At the time of release to the capital market, the effect of delay on the information content seems to be more significant in the case of the interim rather than the annual reports. This may be explained by the major characteristics which differentiate the information contained in the interim reports from that contained in the annual reports, the differences in their role in the investor's decision process, and the existence of substitute information.     

Importance of Intellectual Capital Information: A Study of Australian Analyst Reports

This study explores the types of intellectual capital (IC) information considered important by analysts. It uses content analysis to examine IC information in 64 initiating coverage reports written on Australian listed companies. Results reveal that analysts consider several types of IC information to be important from a firm valuation perspective, many of which had not previously been examined in capital markets research. It was also found that the relative importance placed on types of IC varies by sector. Information on relational capital and company management was most commonly used within analyst reports, whilst information on employees, working environment and structural capital was used least frequently.     

我国会计基础工作改革研究——基于英美法系角度

本文研究了英美法系的代表国家美国、英国与加拿大会计的基本特征,提出完善我国会计基础工作的相关建议.研究发现,英美法系国家会计的共同特征是,“真实与公允”是会计核算的最基本要求,会计准则的制定高度专业化、职业化,并考虑到了国际财务报告的要求;会计核算和信息披露与企业规模和性质存在相关性;会计人员管理市场化,民间组织在会计市场的资源配置中起到了重要的作用;原始凭证民主管理,没有统一规范的标准样式;内部控制成为法定要求.英美法系国家会计工作的这些经验值得我们吸收借鉴.